# of All Americans for you betting types
- Thread starter MarionHawk
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That’s a tough question…kindle the heart or protect the emotions?!?
I'm trying to stay positive, so I'll push the limits and say 7. One guy I really don't expect will surprise me and make it.
I’d bet a chunk of $ on 5. I’d bet no more than $50 on 6+. I’ll go on record predicting 6. Lee, Woods, Murin, Kennedy, Cass and either Brands/Warner.
In the end, I think they have 6. But, that over/under is ABSOLUTELY too high, based on seeds alone.
Only 3 guys are seeded for a high likelihood to AA(Lee#1, Woods#1 and Cass#4). Kennedy and Murin are the ONLY others seeded to AA and they are #6 and #8, respectively. With both having to beat the #11 and #9 seeds to AA(assuming it goes chalk), they essentially have the hardest roads to AA from an AA seed. After that, you have the following seeds: 24, 14, 11, 12 and 14.
Based on the above, the number should be somewhere between 4-4.5. 5 is at the top end of fair, but, that is probably the correct expectation causing you to NOT better either side. I wouldn't touch 5 or 5.5 with a 10 foot pole!!
Only 3 guys are seeded for a high likelihood to AA(Lee#1, Woods#1 and Cass#4). Kennedy and Murin are the ONLY others seeded to AA and they are #6 and #8, respectively. With both having to beat the #11 and #9 seeds to AA(assuming it goes chalk), they essentially have the hardest roads to AA from an AA seed. After that, you have the following seeds: 24, 14, 11, 12 and 14.
Based on the above, the number should be somewhere between 4-4.5. 5 is at the top end of fair, but, that is probably the correct expectation causing you to NOT better either side. I wouldn't touch 5 or 5.5 with a 10 foot pole!!
Emotional hedge....bet the under and if they get 6 your happy to lose the money!! (Assuming you only bet $100!!)
5 feels like a good weekend, 6 feels like a crazy stretch. I hope for 10 tho.
Using the A&A likelihood table in the bracket release thread, we should expect this:
0.975 | 125 |
0.026 | 133 |
0.975 | 141 |
0.55 | 149 |
0.075 | 157 |
0.6 | 165 |
0.3 | 174 |
0.1 | 184 |
0.075 | 197 |
0.825 | 285 |
4.501 | Expected AAs - Take the under |
There’s three locks in Lee, Woods and Cass. Where are the other three coming from? Kennedy is a yes. Then from there all bets are off.
I don’t think that math makes sense?
The way you calculated it, if Iowa had Spencer Lee and 9 28 seeds, it would give a very high probability of 0 All-Americans. The reality would be a .975% chance of 1 All-American.
I say that, and still think, yep, that’s probably about right
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He just took the decimals for each percentage and then added them together. Although it is admittedly a very flawed system, it coincidentally came out to 4.5. Which is EXACTLY what the over/under should be!!!I don’t think that math makes sense?
The way you calculated it, if Iowa had Spencer Lee and 9 28 seeds, it would give a very high probability of 0 All-Americans. The reality would be a .975% chance of 1 All-American.
I say that, and still think, yep, that’s probably about right
So, I wholeheartedly endorse his method in this case.
Just curious MSU158, do you see a flaw in the method other than it's using a general person with that seed vs. the specific person with that seed?
I’m taking the over. I think Lee, Woods, Kennedy and Cass are locks, and then it gets shaky. Which Murin shows up? The aggressive man or the handfight and try to win at the end man? And will the March JWAR come to play or will it be this year’s regular season version who shows up? And how about Brands? I can see him with his outstanding defense get as high as 5th and I can also see his zero offense game send him home 1-2. And then there are the wild cards of Cobe and Abe…what will they do? In the end I’m going with 6-7. I think our men will show up prepared for war and bring home second place. And I predict Spencer Lee will be on next year’s U of I payroll.
Yeah, percentages are simply a "likelihood" of 1 guy AA'ing. You really can't add percentages together to get to a number of AA's. Each guy is his own specific calculation. In reality 5 guys at a 20% chance do not add up to 1 guy AAing. It simply isn't a case of rolling a 5 sided dice 5 times, expecting to get your result 1 in 5 tries...
I think you can argue that this guy or that guy is better than the "average X seed", but totaling up the individual chances to get an overall expected value is sound math. Five guys at a 20% does add up to 1 guy AA'ing, on average.
But, it really doesn't. Each percentage is based off it's own 33 person bracket in a "closed" setting". Combining percentages really doesn't work here.
Would you really expect 1 AA from 20 wrestlers with a 5% chance spread across 20 different brackets? Now, if you had all 20 in the SAME bracket, yes that would hold up. But, across 20 brackets, the odds are much more likely zero AA than 1....
Your math is the same math that I would use to say Michael Jordan and I have 6 NBA Championships.
Don't they teach statistics at MSU? I kid.
I won't go back and forth on this more, but if someone else wants to carry the expected value torch for me, be my guest.
I get the math. I actually DID take a statistics class. I just don't think that method works well in this situation.
Put it this way, if betting, would you take 10 wrestlers seeded 12th, 1 guy from each bracket, to get 1 AA out of 10 or would you bet the field for all 80 AA's???
To be clear, I say all this because it isn't done in a vacuum. Not all 4 seeds or 12 seeds or even 24 seeds are equal. To try to accurately calculate an over/under a simple formula isn't enough. Which is my overall point to saying that usage is flawed. Is Warner at 14(a guy who has AA'd all 3 times) worth the same as Siebrecht, who has never wrestled at NCAA's?
Finally, I wasn't looking at it from a strictly math standpoint. I was looking at it from a betting standpoint, considering each wrestler's chances individually....
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So, to add the "human" part to this, here would be your 10 wrestlers seeded 12th.
125-DeAugustino(14-7) His likely path would be Volk(23-9 a tough kid, only a true freshman and wrestled Lee tough), Caleb Smith(5 seed, 26-5) a loss here would drop him to either Ventresca from VTech or Stevo from UNCO, if he got past that it would probably be Trombley or Provo with the R12 match likely being the loser out of Kaylor or Courtney. Now if, he beat Smith, he would most likely get Ramos in the quarters, needing to win that to get AA status, if not he would drop to the R12 and most likely getting winner of either Kaylor or Courtney again, assuming Glory beats either.
To me, 125 is your best chance and I still don't really like it...
133-Ragusin(17-8) This is supposed to get redrawn due to an injury. Either way, I don't like his chances in this stacked field.
141-Filius(21-9) He is WAY too inconsistent for me to waste my time here. Not AA'ing
149-Zapf(22-7) Tough kid, but I don't even see him making R12. He most likely has Paniro 2nd round and then would likely hit Van Ness in the R16...
157-Coleman(27-6) Almost certainly an undefeated Humphreys 2nd round. He would then likely have to beat Holschlag, Chumbley only to get rewarded with a likely Andonian or Haines in the R12). His road SUCKS!
165-Olejnik(27-2) Great record, super weak schedule. With the talent at 165, he is probably the least likely to AA out of the 10 on this list.
174-Olmos(15-6) Drops to Plott in the 2nd round. Likely has Faison or Eischens next round with a likely match with Cade Devos after. Peyton Mocco or Rocky Jordan would be his most likely R12 opponent if he made it through that road. Again, not liking that at all.
184-Assad(18-4) This one sucks to pick, but I don't see him getting past Coleman in 2nd round. He should be able to get past Hawks to get to the R16. Then, he would have a brutal match with a likely Pinto. If he managed to get past that he would likely either get Bolen or Wittlake in the R12. I hope I am wrong, but this gauntlet ranks in the top 3 least likely roads to make AA for me.
197-Braunagel I can't even begin to try to figure out this weight. Needless to say, I don't like him AA'ing one bit.
285-McKiernan-Local MI boy, for whom I will cheer very hard. With that said, he isn't AA'ing.
Realistically, I could maybe see DeAugustino pulling it off, but I don't see him getting pass Smith AND Ramos in the top half and Kaylor or Courtney doesn't make for a R12 match I really like. Coleman is the ONLY other 12 I like as a true AA candidate and his draw sucks so badly there is no way I could pick him.
I wouldn't guarantee 1 AA out of that field...
125-DeAugustino(14-7) His likely path would be Volk(23-9 a tough kid, only a true freshman and wrestled Lee tough), Caleb Smith(5 seed, 26-5) a loss here would drop him to either Ventresca from VTech or Stevo from UNCO, if he got past that it would probably be Trombley or Provo with the R12 match likely being the loser out of Kaylor or Courtney. Now if, he beat Smith, he would most likely get Ramos in the quarters, needing to win that to get AA status, if not he would drop to the R12 and most likely getting winner of either Kaylor or Courtney again, assuming Glory beats either.
To me, 125 is your best chance and I still don't really like it...
133-Ragusin(17-8) This is supposed to get redrawn due to an injury. Either way, I don't like his chances in this stacked field.
141-Filius(21-9) He is WAY too inconsistent for me to waste my time here. Not AA'ing
149-Zapf(22-7) Tough kid, but I don't even see him making R12. He most likely has Paniro 2nd round and then would likely hit Van Ness in the R16...
157-Coleman(27-6) Almost certainly an undefeated Humphreys 2nd round. He would then likely have to beat Holschlag, Chumbley only to get rewarded with a likely Andonian or Haines in the R12). His road SUCKS!
165-Olejnik(27-2) Great record, super weak schedule. With the talent at 165, he is probably the least likely to AA out of the 10 on this list.
174-Olmos(15-6) Drops to Plott in the 2nd round. Likely has Faison or Eischens next round with a likely match with Cade Devos after. Peyton Mocco or Rocky Jordan would be his most likely R12 opponent if he made it through that road. Again, not liking that at all.
184-Assad(18-4) This one sucks to pick, but I don't see him getting past Coleman in 2nd round. He should be able to get past Hawks to get to the R16. Then, he would have a brutal match with a likely Pinto. If he managed to get past that he would likely either get Bolen or Wittlake in the R12. I hope I am wrong, but this gauntlet ranks in the top 3 least likely roads to make AA for me.
197-Braunagel I can't even begin to try to figure out this weight. Needless to say, I don't like him AA'ing one bit.
285-McKiernan-Local MI boy, for whom I will cheer very hard. With that said, he isn't AA'ing.
Realistically, I could maybe see DeAugustino pulling it off, but I don't see him getting pass Smith AND Ramos in the top half and Kaylor or Courtney doesn't make for a R12 match I really like. Coleman is the ONLY other 12 I like as a true AA candidate and his draw sucks so badly there is no way I could pick him.
I wouldn't guarantee 1 AA out of that field...
Me thinks your math is right (just not intuitive), assuming the results at each weight class are independent (e.g., if Spencer Lee wins, does that really pump up Woods or Murin and change their 'expected value'?).
Then again, I thought the expected value for every math question was 83%, so something is off here.
125 and 141 win. Cass is 4th. Warner is 5 Ken is 5 Max is 7 Several round of 12ers.
Since we’re killing time for a couple more hours, I’ll try to explain it in a way that might make sense.
If you have 10 wrestlers; one with 100% chance to AA, and 9 with a 1% chance, the equation you used would suggest that it is highly likely you would have zero AAs. Even though there is a 100% chance of getting at least one.
You added and divided perfectly. It just doesn’t work for this particular exercise.
That live line would have moved to 5 halfway through Session 1 and still think the heavy juice would be on the under.
Not that I really give a shit, but huh? His math would say the expected number of AAs in your example would be 1.09.
I think the betting line for iowa All Americans is now at 4.5 after day one with pretty even juice on both sides.
It’s been decades since my Quantitative Analysis courses, but I believe this is correct. On the other hand, the chances of having no AA would be .2 ^5, or .00032; meaning the chances of at least one would be .99968.
Thanks...was wondering if you or Spooner was going to help me out here.
No AA would be .8^5, or 0.32768 (i.e., 32.768%), so at least 1 AA would be 67.232%.
To be clear, I really wasn't arguing the math itself, just how accurate it would be when trying to calculate an over/under.
Expected Value is a great formula for investment portfolios, not so much when trying to take 10 brackets across 10 different weight classes and accurately try to get results based off seeds!
You did argue against the math, in multiple ways and multiple postings. I could cite several examples, but will cite just one:
you wrote: "Would you really expect 1 AA from 20 wrestlers with a 5% chance spread across 20 different brackets?"
If you don't know the answer to that, we can't really discuss statistics.
Ugh, did I not clarify what I meant after? Multiple times? Did I not concede the actual math? multiple times as well? My argument has simply been its a flawed system for BETTING.
I clearly said, in this particular case, it is not as simple as rolling a dice so many times expecting the result over so many times based on the sides.
What I mean is I wouldn't bet 1 AA out of 20 guys seeded in a slot where only 5% have AA'd over so many years. The reason? Because, each bracket is completely different with completely different wrestlers and weights. Just because one kid happened to AA from that seed so many years ago doesn't mean any of the expectations are equal.
Finally, a 5 sided dice only has those 5 sides. Roll it so many times and the law of averages kicks in. Wrestle the same bracket 100 times and many of the kids seeded in a spot where 5% AA'd will NOT AA.
Mind you, the the math isn't the same here. Again, its NOT that you automatically have a 5% chance of AA'ing from that seed it is that 5% of ALL wrestlers seeded that slot AA'd. That 5% could have had so many outlying factors contribute to why that happened. Which is why I said it was a flawed system for THIS exercise...
I think 5.5 was a good line for this. We will end with 6
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