*** Official New Degen Thread 🏦🏦🏦***

[wausauhawk]

Iowa -2.5(-130)
Pitt -3.5
USC +3.5
Fresno +3.5
Louisiana -10.5(tailing @Greenway4Prez )

Really want to take West Virginia catching 3.5, but my dislike of the Clones are possibly coloring that analysis

Also, Boise -21 @ Hawaii seems easy? Is it too easy, thoughts?

Fresno up 1, driving w under 7 minutes left to add to the lead. Just bullying the shit outta the Cougs. Call a pass that the QB throws directly to the DB for a pick 6. Ensuing kickoff Fresno catches at the 1 & falls backwards into the endzone. Might be the dumbest play I've seen this season. Sometimes I wonder why I do this to myself lol

 

[Jimmy McGill]

Loving the world right now

Parlay (3 Picks)2 of 3 settled
Oct 12 • 2024
Ticket ID: 8060200026
Moneyline: TexasTexas vs Oklahoma
Moneyline: LSUOle Miss @ LSU
Moneyline: OregonOhio State @ Oregon
Odds: +529
Wager: $100.00
Pot. Payout: $629.28

Single
@ +108
Won
Oct 12 • 2024
Ticket ID: 8061384114
Moneyline: OregonOhio State @ Oregon

Wager: $100.00
Payout:$208.00

 

[FAUlty Gator]

10-0 last wee so you can expect a complete washout here but...
Early leans on Top Plays

Top Plays

Pitt TTO

N Ill/ BG Under 47.5

UCLA TTU

W Michigan -9.5

Ball St. TTO

Kentucky First Half and Vandy TTU

AF/ NM OVER 54.5

OSU TTO

USF TTU

Rice +6

Others to look at

Wisky TTU

Ball St. TTO

OU TTU

USC TTO

ILL -19.5

Ga St. +2

Florida TTO

The metrics plays went 8-1. Pitt TTO was the only loser. The Kentucky loss wasn’t a metric play. Just a gut play.

 

[Jimmy McGill]

 

[funksouljon]

Loving the world right now

Parlay (3 Picks)2 of 3 settled
Oct 12 • 2024
Ticket ID: 8060200026
Moneyline: TexasTexas vs Oklahoma
Moneyline: LSUOle Miss @ LSU
Moneyline: OregonOhio State @ Oregon
Odds: +529
Wager: $100.00
Pot. Payout: $629.28

Single
@ +108
Won
Oct 12 • 2024
Ticket ID: 8061384114
Moneyline: OregonOhio State @ Oregon

Wager: $100.00
Payout:$208.00

Well done. The line is killing my parlays lately. Getting the winner, just not the cover....

 

[TennNole17]

Bet Oregon ML pregame, took winnings to LSU live + 600 ML.

Will lose it betting as I go to sleep on CO ML

 

[Jimmy McGill]

Well done. The line is killing my parlays lately. Getting the winner, just not the cover....

I needed it. I've come so short on legs or parlays lately. I'm trying not to do as many anymore. They are fun. They give you a reason a watch a load of football. But the odds are stacked against us.

 

[Jimmy McGill]

I almost never win moneylines. Texas was the outlier today, but USC f'd it up.

 

[TennNole17]

Accidentally put $ Hawaii thinking I was betting on CO. I should go to bed

 

[Jimmy McGill]

Accidentally put $ Hawaii thinking I was betting on CO. I should go to bed

Go Rainbows!!

 

[funksouljon]

I needed it. I've come so short on legs or parlays lately. I'm trying not to do as many anymore. They are fun. They give you a reason a watch a load of football. But the odds are stacked against us.

Cant find the article on the obscene amount of money the online companies have made SPECIFICALLY DUE TO PARLAYS, but, scroll to #5....

Sports Betting Lessons: Stop Doing Parlays!!!

Is it better to bet many teams separately, or all in one parlay bet? This articl will show you that parlay bets in sports betting are extremely detrimental to your bankroll. Your return on investment is much worse on such bets than single wagers. Also, should you hedge the last leg of your...

www.professormj.com

And OleMiss screwed me last night. I bet the overunder and the LSU/OleMiss, that being the final leg in a parlay yesterday. Went to OT (BS) and I had 6 points to give, they collectively scored 9. FML. Technically, LSU screwed me, if they'd just gone for 2 in regulation I would have won.

 

[Greenway4Prez]

Now that my losing streak is over, I will confidently post my plays for today. Many of these were bet early in the week and lines have moved on some quite a bit.

Mizzou 1H -16.5 ✅
Illinois -19.5 ❌
ULL -10 🅿️
Army -24 ✅
UCLA +5 ✅
USC TT U23.5 ❌
Okla TT U16.5 ✅

Given how the last week went, I’ll take it. Illinois allowing 40 second half points was not exactly expected. I wish the half-point didn’t bite you @wausauhawk but of course we managed to find one of the few games where it mattered.

 

[Greenway4Prez]

The metrics plays went 8-1. Pitt TTO was the only loser. The Kentucky loss wasn’t a metric play. Just a gut play.

Do you feel like there’s an inefficiency in the betting market when it comes to team totals, and that’s something you’re trying to exploit?

 

[FAUlty Gator]

Do you feel like there’s an inefficiency in the betting market when it comes to team totals, and that’s something you’re trying to exploit?

Most of these TT picks are made before the number even comes out but you can guess by looking at line and total what they think the final score is.

I think with a small sample of games, Vegas has only that small data set to work off of when it comes to averages (average points allowed, TOP, etc). It’s when you dig in and realize that some teams have poor or good averages due to the SOS.

So, I try to find the teams or games getting too much or not enough credit for their work up to this point.

Example, N ILL and BG are both in top 25 in time of possession. Well, that tells me each team is probably getting 2-3 less possessions than they usually get. UNDER

Air Force scoring has been dismal but they’ve been playing against decent defenses while giving up points to average offenses. They played NM who is at the bottom in points allowed but can score. OVER

Then if I get a matchup like Army vs. UAB, I don’t want to have to rely on UAB to take the total over, but I know Army is going to score at will. Army leads country in TOP and UAB is at bottom in Offense which means a lot of 3 and outs and more possessions for Army. Army TTO

 

[HawkMachine]

Just got another win with Swift from the Bears.

That’s two weeks in a row where he went over for receiving yards.

Just won a Benjamin on him.

LOVE this guy. lol

 

[wausauhawk]

Given how the last week went, I’ll take it. Illinois allowing 40 second half points was not exactly expected. I wish the half-point didn’t bite you @wausauhawk but of course we managed to find one of the few games where it mattered.

Nice bounce back week @Greenway4Prez . No worries from me, I was hunting for a 5th game to bet so I wouldn't go 2-2 lol. I'm in WI, & since I'm staying away from offshore I've only got 1 option for betting, so my lines can get wonky for better or worse lol. At least USC covered w the hook so I guess it evened out.

 

[HawkMachine]

Just placed a bet.

Stefon Diggs over 5.5 receptions.

Nico Collin’s won’t play which should give some more looks his way.

Patriots have given up a decent about of WR receptions as well.

But based on my recent history, sometimes the numbers don’t mean chit. lol

 

[HawkMachine]

Illinois allowing 40 second half points was not exactly expected.

I’m sure glad they did. I needed OT to win my anytime TD with Pat Bryant.

I got a little lucky but my wallet doesn’t mind.

 

[An Iowa fan]

Good luck to you guys. I have nothing as I have not had time to look at today’s game. Been busy this week.
I did have the the Guardians to win their series against the Tigers, but I bet that awhile ago.

 

[HawkMachine]

Good luck to you guys. I have nothing as I have not had time to look at today’s game. Been busy this week.
I did have the the Guardians to win their series against the Tigers, but I bet that awhile ago.

I’ve got a bunch, I’ve listed some.

I’ll give an update how the day ends up.

 

[Greenway4Prez]

Straights:

Chi -2 ✅
Den +3 ❌
Det TT O27.5 ✅

Teasers:
Hou -2.5/Phi -2.5 ✅
Was-Bal O45.5/Ari-GB O41.5 ✅

 

[Jimmy McGill]

Up another 100 in day games. Just to celebrate, I put one dollar down on a 9000 to 1 bet on 3 Daniel Jones rushing TDs. I mean....if you aren't having fun with it.....why?

 

[EvilMonkeyInTheCloset]

You're all welcome.

 

[HawkMachine]

I’ve got a bunch, I’ve listed some.

I’ll give an update how the day ends up.

Holy cow.

Sunday was a phenomenal day.

Starting right away in the morning and just never stopped winning.
Every single bet or leg hit on the noon games.
Every single bet or leg hit on the 3:00 games.
Only bets I lost ended up being the night game. Chase didn't score and Burrow didn't hit the yards I wanted him to. If Chase catches a wide open ball Burrow hits. Oh well, no biggie.

If I had to guess I made close to $500 yesterday.

The majority of bets placed were my "conservative" player props parlay strategy.

Unless I feel REALLY good about a game, I see no reason to bet the spread/ML anymore. Maybe the ML tied with a player prop or something. I did that with the ISU game. I had complete faith in ISU winning, just wasn't' sure by how much. The ML didn't pay out much so I tied a couple conservative player props in and the payout ended up being decent.

But I'm done with who wins and by how much. I'm all about finding a player and a mismatch. For instance finding a WR against a terrible pass defense. Or a RB against a terrible run defense. A kicker against a team that gives up a bunch of FG's.

The biggest risk is an injury. For example Travis Hunter screwed a couple bets up on Saturday. He doesn't get injured my target number for him 99% happens and the bets pay out.

Second biggest risk is a blowout game depending on the bet.

 

[An Iowa fan]

Took the Bills -120 ML.

 

[HawkMachine]

I have two bets for tonight's game so far.

Rodgers longest pass completion Under 32.5 yards.
-115

The other bet is a free parlay bet they gave me. The odds had to be high. It's free so I just put something together quick. I wouldn't have put my own money on this even though I can see it hitting. Jets defense is damn good.

Josh Allen under 199.5 passing yards
Jets ML
+333

 

[TennNole17]

I have two bets for tonight's game so far.

Rodgers longest pass completion Under 32.5 yards.
-115

The other bet is a free parlay bet they gave me. The odds had to be high. It's free so I just put something together quick. I wouldn't have put my own money on this even though I can see it hitting. Jets defense is damn good.

Josh Allen under 199.5 passing yards
Jets ML
+333

Allen has been pretty good on MNF, he's averaging 256yds/game on MNF. Not sure if tonight will be different, Allen seems banged up and as you noted, Jets Defense is good.

Josh Allen Stats On Monday Night Football | StatMuse

Josh Allen has a passer rating of 105.9 with 2,308 yards, 24 touchdowns and 7 interceptions in 9 games on Mondays in his career.

www.statmuse.com

 

[HawkMachine]

Allen has been pretty good on MNF, he's averaging 256yds/game on MNF. Not sure if tonight will be different, Allen seems banged up and as you noted, Jets Defense is good.

Jets have given up 161.2 yards in the air per game. I will say they haven't faced many good QB's so stats can sometimes be misleading.

Most passing yards given up by them was Purdy with 231. Even then, that was 41 yards less than his average.

I'm pretty sure Allen suffered a concussion last week even though he "passed" the protocol.

Road game.

One thing is for sure, Josh Allen is GAMER!

Gonna be a good one!

Disclaimer: I haven't put any of my own money on him going under 199.5 yards tonight. Was a free bet.

But it's still something I might. I'm still looking at numbers (at work). LMAO

 

[TennNole17]

He also doesn't have a lot of weapons to throw to. I think he blew up week 1-2, but hasn't done much since then. He's my fantasy QB, and sat him this week, so.

I like the under 200 honestly, but that just means he will throw for 450 and have 7 touchdowns or some bullshit.

 

[HawkMachine]

I also like Tyler Bass at over 1.5 FG's.

I have a good feeling he will have 3 attempts. Just got to make 2/3.

Not a big payoff at -145 though.

But throw in a conservative parlay to sweeten up the payout.

 

[HawkMachine]

He also doesn't have a lot of weapons to throw to. I think he blew up week 1-2, but hasn't done much since then. He's my fantasy QB, and sat him this week, so.

There's a chance his top WR won't play tonight. Cook as well.

Even if they do they probably won't be 100%.

I like the under 200 honestly, but that just means he will throw for 450 and have 7 touchdowns or some bullshit.

Ain't that the F'n truth. LOL

 

[HawkMachine]

I also like Tyler Bass at over 1.5 FG's.

I have a good feeling he will have 3 attempts. Just got to make 2/3.

Not a big payoff at -145 though.

But throw in a conservative parlay to sweeten up the payout.

Well I just did what I mentioned.

Felt good about Bass on the over 1.5 FG's.

Put a conservative parlay together to get a better payout. Here's what I did:

Tyler Bass over 1.5 fg
Garrett Wilson 25+ receiving yds
Aaron Rodgers 150+ passing yds
Breece Hall 25+ rushing yds

Boosts it up to -105.

I shouldn't have posted this as bad luck normally follows after I post a bet.

 

[An Iowa fan]

Well I just did what I mentioned.

Felt good about Bass on the over 1.5 FG's.

Put a conservative parlay together to get a better payout. Here's what I did:

Tyler Bass over 1.5 fg
Garrett Wilson 25+ receiving yds
Aaron Rodgers 150+ passing yds
Breece Hall 25+ rushing yds

Boosts it up to -105.

I shouldn't have posted this as bad luck normally follows after I post a bet.

Did you mean Breece Hall receiving yards over 25 rather than rushing yards?

 

[Greenway4Prez]

I could see a lower scoring affair, and the Jets getting a boost from a few new faces in the coaching ranks.

Teaser time!

NYJ +7
Under 47

 

[HawkMachine]

Did you mean Breece Hall receiving yards over 25 rather than rushing yards?

Nope, rushing.

Remember, I try to create conservative legs.

I’m not trying to make a fortune on a bet.

If I can bet $50 and win $50 I’m super pleased.

 

[HawkMachine]

I could see a lower scoring affair, and the Jets getting a boost from a few new faces in the coaching ranks.

The guy calling the plays tonight is run heavy.

That’s the word on the street.

 

[Greenway4Prez]

The guy calling the plays tonight is run heavy.

That’s the word on the street.

Love it. Run that clock!

 

[Greenway4Prez]

Two CFB plays locked in:

UCLA/Rutgers U40.5
Texas -3.5

 

[TennNole17]

Allen under 197.5
Breece Hall 40+ Rushing
Keon Coleman under 2.5 receptions.

Boring - like I hope this game is

 

[HawkMachine]

Allen under 197.5

If you haven’t placed it yet, bet365 has it at 206.5!