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*** Official New Degen Thread 🏦🏦🏦***

Greenway4Prez said:
Oh! That reminds me, DK has a +2000 ATTD prop of:

Lamar
Henry
Cook
Allen

If anyone is interested. But, I took Lamar and Cook out, which left me with +213 on Allen and Henry to score a TD.
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Don't count out Mark Andrews.

Been a go to guy down in the redzone.

Didn't score against the Steelers but scored in the six previous games.
 
Here's some props to check out from Tom Brolley @ Fantasy Points. He's very sharp. Most of these lines have probably already moved, so be sure to line shop for the best odds.

2024 Player Props Record: 129-81 (61.74%, +37.9 units)

Saturday​


Samaje Perine (KC) over 8.5 receiving yards (-110, Bet365)
  • FP Projection: 11.9 yards, 11+ yards in 7 straight games and in 14-of-17 games overall, 8/124 receiving in 5 games as the passing back since Pacheco returned including 3/50 receiving against HOU in Week 16

DeAndre Hopkins (KC) over 28.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings)
  • FP Projection: 36.6 yards, lowest his prop has been all season, 29+ yards in 10-of-11 games since joining KC, 4/37 receiving against HOU in Week 16, HOU gives up the 15th-most receiving YPG (101.6)

Sunday​


Justice Hill (Bal) over 6.5 rushing yards (-110, Bet365)
  • FP Projection: 21.4 yards, lowest his prop has been all season, season-high 6 carries last week in his return from a concussion, averaging 4.5 YPC and 3.3 carries per game, 7+ yards in 10-of-16 games, BUF gives up the 14th-most adjusted YBC/ATT (2.07) and 4.4 YPC to RBs

Cooper Kupp (LAR) under 43.5 receiving yards (-110, DraftKings)
  • FP Projection: 38.1 yards, 29 or fewer yards and 3 or fewer targets in four straight games, PHI gives up the fourth-fewest YPRR (1.59) and the 10th-fewest receiving YPG (69.9) to receivers aligned in the slot

Dallas Goedert (Phi) over 34.5 receiving yards (-110, Bet365)
  • FP Projection: 40.4 yards, 35+ yards in 7-of-10 full games, LAR deploys the 10th-highest rate of Cover 3 (33%) and he averages 3.16 YPRR and .31 TPRR on 68 routes against the coverage, LAR gave up the fourth-most receiving YPG (64.8) to TEs in the regular season, Hockenson posted 5/64 receiving in this matchup last week

Curtis Samuel (Buf) over 11.5 receiving yards (-110, DraftKings)
  • FP Projection: 23 yards, second-lowest his prop total has been all season, 3/68 receiving on a 44% route share last week, 37% route share in 6 of his last 7 games
 
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Went 3-2 on the night with a decent little net profit.

Cavs Thunder blowout lost me a bet.

Gonzaga shitting the bed late cost me the other. I should have cashed out before OT started for a small profit. But I'm greedy and dumb. Ain't a good combo.
 
Buddy of mine pulled this off SportsLine -- seems like a fun idea for $10!

The parlay includes picks from SportsLine's proven model, which simulates every game 10,000 times and is 31-15 on top-rated NFL picks this season. In total, the model has returned more than $10,000 for $100 bettors over the past eight seasons.

Here are the full weekend Divisional Round NFL picks that can be combined for a parlay that pays out over $1.2 million. We've combined the model's most confident touchdown picks and bet them as the first TD scorer.

  • Kareem Hunt First TD scorer (+1000) -- Hunt is projected to score 0.38 touchdowns -- Hunt has scored in back-to-back games and has seven red-zone touches over his last three games, compared to Isiah Pacheco's one red-zone touch.
  • Zach Ertz First TD scorer (+2500) -- Ertz is projected to score 0.41 touchdowns -- Detroit has the No. 30 pass defense in the league, and Ertz' six red-zone touchdowns are third-most among all tight ends.
  • Kyren Williams First TD scorer (+650) -- Williams is projected to score 0.88 touchdowns -- Williams has been the first touchdown scorer in five of his last seven games.
  • Rashod Bateman First TD scorer (+1100) -- Bateman is projected to score 0.52 touchdowns -- Bateman has five touchdowns over his last five games, while seven of his 10 scores this season have come in the first half.
  • Eagles -8.5 (alt line) (+144) -- Philadelphia is projected to win by 10 points -- the Eagles have played the Rams twice over the last 16 months, winning each by more than 8.5 points.
  • Ravens-Bills Over 54.5 (alt line) (+118) -- the point total is projected to be 55 -- the official O/U is 51.5, but both teams have decidedly hit the Over this season. The Over is a combined 24-12 for the teams.
PARLAY ODDS: +12063208

$10 bet pays out $1,206,320.84
 
Brian_Fantana said:
Buddy of mine pulled this off SportsLine -- seems like a fun idea for $10!

The parlay includes picks from SportsLine's proven model, which simulates every game 10,000 times and is 31-15 on top-rated NFL picks this season. In total, the model has returned more than $10,000 for $100 bettors over the past eight seasons.

Here are the full weekend Divisional Round NFL picks that can be combined for a parlay that pays out over $1.2 million. We've combined the model's most confident touchdown picks and bet them as the first TD scorer.

  • Kareem Hunt First TD scorer (+1000) -- Hunt is projected to score 0.38 touchdowns -- Hunt has scored in back-to-back games and has seven red-zone touches over his last three games, compared to Isiah Pacheco's one red-zone touch.
  • Zach Ertz First TD scorer (+2500) -- Ertz is projected to score 0.41 touchdowns -- Detroit has the No. 30 pass defense in the league, and Ertz' six red-zone touchdowns are third-most among all tight ends.
  • Kyren Williams First TD scorer (+650) -- Williams is projected to score 0.88 touchdowns -- Williams has been the first touchdown scorer in five of his last seven games.
  • Rashod Bateman First TD scorer (+1100) -- Bateman is projected to score 0.52 touchdowns -- Bateman has five touchdowns over his last five games, while seven of his 10 scores this season have come in the first half.
  • Eagles -8.5 (alt line) (+144) -- Philadelphia is projected to win by 10 points -- the Eagles have played the Rams twice over the last 16 months, winning each by more than 8.5 points.
  • Ravens-Bills Over 54.5 (alt line) (+118) -- the point total is projected to be 55 -- the official O/U is 51.5, but both teams have decidedly hit the Over this season. The Over is a combined 24-12 for the teams.
PARLAY ODDS: +12063208

$10 bet pays out $1,206,320.84
Click to expand...
Would a sportsbook allow you to make this bet?
 
fredjr82 said:
FanDuel let me add it all to my bet slip, but $10 only won $136,000

I swapped the First TD to Anytime. Kept the alternate spread and over.

$5 to win around $1000
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Hah. Well - hope it works out! I think my buddy did a trial pay for sportsline to get their picks through the playoffs. Told him to just come here as those “experts” don’t know any more than anyone on here!
 
An Iowa fan said:
I wasn’t going to because UCLA plays defense and plays ball control on offense.
When I saw your post I checked the total and it is down to 150.5. Couldn’t resist, I bet the over.
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Usually they do, but they are struggling right now. Lots points scored in their last several games.

They’re not playing at a fast tempo by any means, but their tempo numbers are about 100 spots higher than last year.
 
Greenway4Prez said:
We’re all taking the OVER in the Iowa game, right?!?!
Click to expand...


Parlay (5 Picks)0 of 5 settled
Jan 17 • 2025
Ticket ID: 8585139996
Point Spread: Iowa +7.0Iowa @ UCLA
Total Points: Over 151.5Iowa @ UCLA
Moneyline: Ohio StateIndiana @ Ohio State
Moneyline: GeorgetownDePaul @ Georgetown
Moneyline: VillanovaProvidence @ Villanova
Odds: +539
Wager: $50.00
Pot. Payout: $319.28
 
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