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*** Official New Degen Thread 🏦🏦🏦***

gojojo said:
Only 867 followers. You'd think he'd be blowing up by now. I'm just waiting for this free period to be up and him making us pay to play. Professionals in Vegas don't hit over 65% and he's at 95%.
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My girlfriend (pic every time I post) has a degree in statistics, so she’s really interested in what he’s putting into this model. Also, the only plays that are posted are ones where the favorite is a single digit favorite, or the team is the underdog. His model has something that is finding teams whose value is off from the metrics used by Vegas to set lines.
 
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Have mahomes ov 310.5 yards passing as my last player prop in a 6 leg same game parlay. The other player props have hit and under 60.5, Cheifs ML, Browns +21.5 are left. That is gonna hurt.
 
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Derekd3408 said:
Gonna lose all the money on this one. Took Cheifs -6.5, Cheifs -10.5, Same game parlay that's toast, and now Browns ML because they are the Browns and can't handle a gift from God to reach the AFC Champ game.
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Turns out the popular play taking the Browns to cover was the right one.

Probably doesn't happen if Mahomes doesn't go down though.

Of course, people who like to bet the Overs have to be hating these games so far.
 
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Greenway4Prez said:
My girlfriend (pic every time I post) has a degree in statistics, so she’s really interested in what he’s putting into this model. Also, the only plays that are posted are ones where the favorite is a single digit favorite, or the team is the underdog. His model has something that is finding teams whose value is off from the metrics used by Vegas to set lines.
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He has stayed silent when asked about his model or algorithm or whatever data points he's looking at, and for good reason. Someone asked him why Iowa wasn't a play today and he didn't answer; I'd guess our -10.5 was too high of a line to be considered, like you mentioned.

I usually cross reference his picks against OddsShark and covers dot com. When all 3 align I bet quite a bit more than my usual wager.

I've been hesitant to go too big until today. I thought it looked like a great bet at Army -4 since it wasn't even a contest yesterday. At some point it has to bounce back the other way but I'm riding it until it does.
 
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Saints is the play imo. Public has won on every game so far this weekend, and is on TB. They also murdered TB earlier this season and have beaten them in both matchups
 
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Man, Northern Iowa sucks.....Lost by 15 yesterday so I figured even with a teaser to +15.5 today, they'd make it more competitive.....................bigly failed.
 
Fournette rushing yards is at 54.5 for the game. He has 38 right now. Hmmmm. Is he hurt? 17 yards seems easy.
 
jasonrann said:
You described last weekend perfectly for me.
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I was a little dramatic. The Fournette over 54.5 ended up hitting after I posted and then I put a pile on Bucs -5.5 after I posted as well. Both hit and put me at even for the day. I'll take that. Just put $50 on Paul George to score 30 and Clips win at +350. See if I can get ahead for the day.
 
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