Great opening win for Washington, puts all of our remaining weekend opponents into the top 100 for now. I think we have to be happy with just kind of holding serve in this area of the RPI until we join the PAC 12 in May.
***Official RPI thread*** (added Value)
- Thread starter ICWestfan
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+18 RPI points with a win today
(-72) RPI points with a loss today
To borrow @BeepBeepInMyJeep 's phrase . . . "holding serve" . . . Iowa' RPI (Nolan) remains unchanged this a.m. Sitting at #79. D1 Baseball's RPI has Iowa at #76 (and, yes, it updates in real time as well). KPI has Iowa at #54.
Couldn't have asked for a better day at the ballpark yesterday. Absolutely gorgeous. Biggest crowd ever in Heller's tenure.
But, what really stood out to me in the first six-seven innings was Nebraska's chatter from the bench. They were into the game from the first pitch and, from where I was sitting (pretty close to the field), the Nebraska bench was more vocal than Iowa's bench. With their backs against the wall from not only a series standpoint but from a divisional position standpoint, I expect they'll come out with a chip on their shoulder. It's going to be a tough game today.
From simply an analytics perspective, today's game is one which Iowa would really benefit from winning (again . . . "holding serve" . . . "treading water" . . . whatever phrase you want to use).
(-72) RPI points with a loss today
To borrow @BeepBeepInMyJeep 's phrase . . . "holding serve" . . . Iowa' RPI (Nolan) remains unchanged this a.m. Sitting at #79. D1 Baseball's RPI has Iowa at #76 (and, yes, it updates in real time as well). KPI has Iowa at #54.
Couldn't have asked for a better day at the ballpark yesterday. Absolutely gorgeous. Biggest crowd ever in Heller's tenure.
But, what really stood out to me in the first six-seven innings was Nebraska's chatter from the bench. They were into the game from the first pitch and, from where I was sitting (pretty close to the field), the Nebraska bench was more vocal than Iowa's bench. With their backs against the wall from not only a series standpoint but from a divisional position standpoint, I expect they'll come out with a chip on their shoulder. It's going to be a tough game today.
From simply an analytics perspective, today's game is one which Iowa would really benefit from winning (again . . . "holding serve" . . . "treading water" . . . whatever phrase you want to use).
Watts got through adversity Friday evening. Saturday the team experienced, in real time, in a situation where it mattered, how to come back and win a close game late. Especially when they weren't playing as sharp and as clean as they have been playing.
I'd tip my hat to Nebraska's starting pitchers and majority of relievers. At least for Friday and Saturday, they pounded the strike zone. They also have a strategy of getting the ball and pitching quickly. There is no throwing the ball around the horn after a K. The ball is back in the pitcher's hand and he's ready to throw. Definitely a strategy they purposefully employ. Bordered on quick pitching a couple of times yesterday but, for the vast majority of the game, it was "get the ball," "pitch the ball." Pounded the strike zone. Until B8 yesterday, really made Iowa have to hit their way onto the basepaths. That's the kind of baseball I like. Free passes drive me insane.
Yep, it's that insane numbers game we play, I believe Neb took 2/3 from Oregon State earlier this year, no? We dropped 15 spots after yesterday. That said, obviously Oregon and Oregon State both on the slate yet so just by playing that should bump us plus take care of biz in other series and WarrenNolan seems to think we'd be between 50 and 60 at end of year which should punch a regional ticket.
We will have at least 6 Q1 opportunities upcoming between Oregon and Oregon State.
Although I doubt it will remain this way, Oregon would be considered a Q3 opponent right now. They are #54 RPI.
For home games, Q1 is for opponents ranked 1-25. Q2 is 26-50. Q3 is 51-100.
Iowa (23-11) has won their last 6 series. As the saying (and song) goes, 2 outta 3 ain't bad. 
Iowa has 12 conference and 8 nonconference games (3 against Oregon State) left in the regular season.
Just win, baby, and things will take care of themselves.
Let's win 10 (or more) of 15 here:
at Michigan.............(22-14)
vs Indiana................(20-16)
at Washington.........(18-19)
vs Oregon State......(26-7)
vs Oregon.................(25-10)
Iowa has 12 conference and 8 nonconference games (3 against Oregon State) left in the regular season.
Just win, baby, and things will take care of themselves.
Let's win 10 (or more) of 15 here:
at Michigan.............(22-14)
vs Indiana................(20-16)
at Washington.........(18-19)
vs Oregon State......(26-7)
vs Oregon.................(25-10)
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Avoided RPI Armageddon last night with the proverbial “win and you lose/lose and you lose” RPI game last night.
Take the series (tall order) against UM and the Hawks can likely climb back into the 70s.
Take the series (tall order) against UM and the Hawks can likely climb back into the 70s.
Lots of direct and indirect rpi opportunities to grab 100 points or more and keep climbing rpi ladder..series win would be great.
A lot of our pain last week was inflicted by USF losing a series with Rice. That was formerly a quad 1 series.
This weekend, we’ll just want some future opponents like Oregon to take 2 of 3, and Washington (Illinois) and Indiana (Maryland) to do well in those home series to leave us with an abundance of RPI boosting opportunities down the stretch.
Let’s be real, we knew Minny and Michigan State and NW aren’t that great. The resume needs to be built foundationally around what’s to come in the 5 weeks ahead. With UIC likely to be cancelled.
I don’t know how creating incentives for teams to cancel scheduled baseball games in May, rather than trying to win them…is the best system (for fans, players and coaches), but that’s what it is.
“How about a nice game of chess?”
I think I asked this last year- In regards to cancelling non-con games, instead of scheduling those games, why not do home and away non-con games with Illinois on a Tuesday or Wednesday? Seems to me it would be beneficial to both teams.
+49 RPI Points with a win today.
(-15) RPI Points with a loss today.
Certainly not a pretty W yesterday but a win on the road against a good team when the Hawks' ace has an off game . . . awfully nice.
Scouting report on Michigan is their lineup is a fastball hitting team. Could bode well for Savary and his breaking stuff. Here's hoping he keeps Michigan's hitters off balance all day.
Let's Go Hawks!
(-15) RPI Points with a loss today.
Certainly not a pretty W yesterday but a win on the road against a good team when the Hawks' ace has an off game . . . awfully nice.
Scouting report on Michigan is their lineup is a fastball hitting team. Could bode well for Savary and his breaking stuff. Here's hoping he keeps Michigan's hitters off balance all day.
Let's Go Hawks!
Hawks go sub 70 rpi after today's win awesome!
+43 RPI points for Iowa with a win today.
(-18) RPI points for Iowa with a loss today.
For Michigan:
+35 RPI points for a win today.
(-29) RPI points with a loss.
Setting up the odd scenario where - if Iowa wins its 3rd straight game today against a team that is currently a Q1 RPI opponent, it will leave Ann Arbor with a 0-0 record against Q1 RPI opponents.
Fun fact: Iowa is now 7-0 on Saturday in B1G games.
(-18) RPI points for Iowa with a loss today.
For Michigan:
+35 RPI points for a win today.
(-29) RPI points with a loss.
Setting up the odd scenario where - if Iowa wins its 3rd straight game today against a team that is currently a Q1 RPI opponent, it will leave Ann Arbor with a 0-0 record against Q1 RPI opponents.
Fun fact: Iowa is now 7-0 on Saturday in B1G games.
That tricky rpi and Q1 conundrum! Just win of course hoping mich can claw back to Q1 status. Does committed value quad wins or rpi more?
The committee values an approach which ensures that 80% of teams in the ACC and SEC are invited to the tournament.
What a 9th inning. 🧹🧹🧹
Amazing. Sub 60 with no Q1 wins? I hate the RPI but I do like this team. At what point do they stop playing mid-week games?
probably just drop the UIC one. St Thomas and ISU are decent.
And the only reason Michigan and Minnesota aren’t quad 1 is because we swept them at home and that takes a lot of games to recover from.
Michigan at 62 so just out of Q1 I expect that will change hopefully.
Not that it matters but I have to think that Iowa will start getting some recognition from the rating services.
Heller and Sutherland would be the first to admit that Iowa didn’t bring its “A” game on either Friday or Saturday. Better today.
Psyched to think of what can happen if they put it all together.
Obermueller had a tough outing Friday afternoon. After that, Iowa pitching was damn good. And they were missing a guy - Guerin - who has quietly become a key cog in that bullpen.
Psyched to think of what can happen if they put it all together.
Obermueller had a tough outing Friday afternoon. After that, Iowa pitching was damn good. And they were missing a guy - Guerin - who has quietly become a key cog in that bullpen.
My thoughts on RPI is that if Iowa wins the regular season B1G Championship this will assure a high enough RPI to get them an at large prior to the B1G Tournament. The B1G is #5 RPI conference, so I think it is a 4 bid league. It would be hard to keep the regular season champion out. Maybe even the runner up.
The new format of the B1G Tournament means you only play four games, but if Iowa is fairly certain they are in as B1G regular season champions and/or has a high enough RPI this allows them to plan pitching geared towards the NCAA, and not have to throw the kitchen sink at the B1G Tournament.
Someone can probably explain this better than I can, and also point out any flaws in my speculation.
I know while I speculate out past the B1G Tournament the margins are still thin, but I think we're at the point we can start to reasonably speculate on things like this.
The new format of the B1G Tournament means you only play four games, but if Iowa is fairly certain they are in as B1G regular season champions and/or has a high enough RPI this allows them to plan pitching geared towards the NCAA, and not have to throw the kitchen sink at the B1G Tournament.
Someone can probably explain this better than I can, and also point out any flaws in my speculation.
I know while I speculate out past the B1G Tournament the margins are still thin, but I think we're at the point we can start to reasonably speculate on things like this.
They can't leave the B1G regular season champs out of the NCAA Tournament, right?
Just 9 conference games left for Iowa.
The Top 5 B1G teams:
...............................................................................................................................Games
................................................................................................................................Back
1. Iowa..................................(27-11, 17-4).......--
2. UCLA...........................(29-10, 13-5)......2.5
3. Oregon...........................(27-11, 14-7)......3
4. USC................................(25-14, 11-7)......3.5
4. Washington.................(21-20, 11-7)......3.5
Just 9 conference games left for Iowa.
The Top 5 B1G teams:
...............................................................................................................................Games
................................................................................................................................Back
1. Iowa..................................(27-11, 17-4).......--
2. UCLA...........................(29-10, 13-5)......2.5
3. Oregon...........................(27-11, 14-7)......3
4. USC................................(25-14, 11-7)......3.5
4. Washington.................(21-20, 11-7)......3.5
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Iowa (23-11) has won their last 6 series. As the saying (and song) goes, 2 outta 3 ain't bad.
Iowa has 12 conference and 8 nonconference games (3 against Oregon State) left in the regular season.
Just win, baby, and things will take care of themselves.
Let's win 10 (or more) of 15 here:
at Michigan.............(22-14)
vs Indiana................(20-16)
at Washington.........(18-19)
vs Oregon State......(26-7)
vs Oregon.................(25-10)
UPDATE:
Iowa (27-11) has won their last 7 series.
Iowa has 16 games left in the regular season: 9 conference & 7 nonconference (3 against Oregon State).
Just win, baby, and things will take care of themselves.
An update on those 15 very important games at the end of Iowa's schedule:
Let's win 10 (or more) of these 15 games:
3-0: at Michigan.............(23-17)...April 18-20
0-0: vs Indiana................(22-18)...April 25-27
0-0: at Washington.......(21-20)...May 2-4
0-0: vs Oregon State.....(30-7)...May 9-11
0-0: vs Oregon..................(27-11)...May 15-17
3-0: Our Record for these last 5 Series
==============================
B1G Tournament: Tues May 20-Sun May 25
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That seems to be the prevailing thought process. A couple of years ago, I posted a long thread detailing the history of the B1G getting tournament bids. If memory serves, there is one outlier year where the regular season champion did not receive a tournament bid. I'll see if I can chase down that post.
This is where my confidence in the selection process wanes. If Iowa were to finish second in the regular season, end up with an RPI in the 60s, and not advance to final weekend of B1G tournament play, I have very little doubt the committee would have no problem leaving Iowa on the wrong side of the bubble. It'd be close but (a) there are always unexpected bid-stealers; and (b) it's not as if Iowa has a blue blood reputation.
A nice development may very well be that Scott Dolson, Indiana's AD, is now on the selection committee and, after years of there being no B1G representative on the committee, I'm hoping that he is a "loud voice" in the room advocating for the B1G to get at least 4 slots. I had the pleasure of speaking with Coach Heller a couple of years ago and he lamented the absence of anyone from the B1G conference having a seat at the selection committee table.
Story: https://iubase.com/indiana-a-d-dolson-named-to-ncaa-baseball-selection-committee/#:~:text=D1Baseball's Kendall Rogers shared,Athletics for Indiana University Bloomington.
EDIT: Perhaps my thoughts about being a "runner up" are a bit pessimistic. Found the old post which only goes through 2021 - B1G regular season runner-up received a bid every year between 2014 and 2021 (lowest runner-up RPI was 56): https://iowa.forums.rivals.com/threads/big-10-baseball-a-little-history.389695/
IMO, getting to the final weekend of play is most important. Given everyone's schedules to finish the year, Iowa is well-positioned to finish in the top 4 of the conference. Hell, if they play good baseball, they are well-positioned to finish no lower than second place. Getting to the weekend of tournament play, coupled with a top 4 finish in the conference, will make them an attractive team to make the tournament. No need to burn arms trying to win the Saturday game. Win that game and you see how the chips fall on Sunday. As you aptly put it, no need to "throw the kitchen sink" to win the B1G tournament.
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I could see the B1G getting 4, since the (RIP) PAC 12 will only have 1 (Oregon State), so the other 4-5 that they used to get will just divert to the Big 10/12/ACC. Obviously these are all case by case basis.
I don’t necessarily see a huge change in tactic on “needing” to win the BTT or not needing it. As noted it’s a shorter tournament which favors top 4 seeds. If you’re going to play it, you might as well try to win it. And Rick Heller and the players want to win as many games as they can and whatever trophy they are competition for. The only difference would be at the margins, where you’d press certain bullpen guys into a couple extra innings or consecutive days where maybe you wouldn’t otherwise.
I don’t necessarily see a huge change in tactic on “needing” to win the BTT or not needing it. As noted it’s a shorter tournament which favors top 4 seeds. If you’re going to play it, you might as well try to win it. And Rick Heller and the players want to win as many games as they can and whatever trophy they are competition for. The only difference would be at the margins, where you’d press certain bullpen guys into a couple extra innings or consecutive days where maybe you wouldn’t otherwise.
D1 Baseball's podcast from earlier yesterday:
https://d1baseball.com/podcasts/the-d1baseball-podcast/weekend-10-reactions-2/ (Go to 39:34)
They aren't buying into Iowa's success yet. It is mentioned that Iowa hasn't played any of the west coast teams in conference play yet and lost 3 of 4 to Washington State. It is also mentioned that west coast teams are 40-16 this year against "traditional" B1G teams. One guy comments that, after sweeping Michigan, Iowa is “in a good spot.”
Gotta love two minuses on the RPI board, I know the other guys need work yet it's a wonder teams start canceling these midweek games come late April and May.
St Thomas and ISU are okay but I think we can count on the UIC game being cancelled or replaced with a non D1.
