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OK . . . Now I'm Getting Worried About the Market

Nov 28, 2010
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I thought yesterday signaled the bottom. Then I wake up to this.

What do you guys see happening?

Time to panic and stop the blood flow by selling even though it means locking in big losses?
 
How low do you think your stocks can go? And do you have a stomach for that number? If so, do nothing.

BTW - As I type the DOW has a 15 handle on it again.
 
I thought yesterday signaled the bottom. Then I wake up to this.

What do you guys see happening?

Time to panic and stop the blood flow by selling even though it means locking in big losses?

What's your time frame on the money? If you're 15+ years from retirement, then feel free to re-allocate if you don't like some sectors, but this won't be the last downswing you'll see and you'll also see plenty of upswings....so ride it out. If you're 5 years or less from retirement, then maybe you do consider salvaging capital....but it'll depend on how much you have, where your losses stand, etc.
 
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I thought yesterday signaled the bottom. Then I wake up to this.

What do you guys see happening?

Time to panic and stop the blood flow by selling even though it means locking in big losses?

It all depends on your timeline for needing the invested capital and your tolerance for risk. If you're really close to needing the money for a big project or purchase or you're really close to retirement, then maybe you do think about a quick sell just to preserve capital. If, however, this is long-term money and you're not going to need it anytime soon, then let ride. This won't be the last down cycle you see and there will also be hot markets as well.
 
I don't understand why Apple has a price to earnings ratio of 11.5 and Amazon has a ratio of 827.

Apple prints money and is sitting on a mountain of cash and people think it is about to go belly up.

Amazon doesn't generate a lot of profit in comparison and people have pushed the stock to a crazy p/e. Makes no sense to me.

Apple looks like a great stock now. The dividend will probably be at least 3% with the price drop.
 
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I thought yesterday signaled the bottom. Then I wake up to this.

What do you guys see happening?

Time to panic and stop the blood flow by selling even though it means locking in big losses?
This is what happens when governments try to control all the ups and downs. When they run out of bullets and can't control their own debt, the crash is much worse.
 
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With gasoline prices so low (I filled up at $1.799 yesterday) and people buying gas guzzlers at an accelerated rate last year, will there be big sales on frugal vehicles, or will the manufacturers just cut production of those models?
 
This is what happens when governments try to control all the ups and downs. When they run out of bullets and can't control their own debt, the crash is much worse.
You serious? Nearly every economic measure, whether it's the depth of recessions or the inflation rate, has been far better under the Fed. You're talking out of your ass.
 
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With gasoline prices so low (I filled up at $1.799 yesterday) and people buying gas guzzlers at an accelerated rate last year, will there be big sales on frugal vehicles, or will the manufacturers just cut production of those models?
I hope so, at least for personal reasons. If people are dumb enough to think that low gas prices are here to stay, then they deserve their gas guzzlers. I would gladly pick up a fuel efficient care on the cheap. I guarantee gas will get expensive again.
 
I thought yesterday signaled the bottom. Then I wake up to this.

What do you guys see happening?

Time to panic and stop the blood flow by selling even though it means locking in big losses?
Yes, let the market correct itself, rather than be manipulated. Let the blood flow, so the surgery to do actual correction can happen.
 
Yes, let the market correct itself, rather than be manipulated. Let the blood flow, so the surgery to do actual correction can happen.
Get ready for 20%+ GDP losses and huge inflation problems. Because that is exactly what we had before the Fed. We haven't had more than 5% loss in the last 70 years. I'm in no hurry to change that. Thank god we have the Fed.
 
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I see it going up and down for perpetuity.
It's been going down since the beginning of the new year my friend. China just entered bear market territory. This has not been up and down. This has been nothing but down since the beginning of this year. Gain, one day, lose more than the gain the next.
 
Get ready for 20%+ GDP losses and huge inflation problems. Because that is exactly what we had before the Fed. We haven't had more than 5% loss in the last 70 years. I'm in no hurry to change that. Thank god we have the Fed.
The Fed wasn't created to keep you happy Huey. It was created to maintain the imbalance of power. It's exactly the reason so many back in early times were against it coming to fruition here in America. They had seen what the Rothchild led Central banks had done to Europe.
 
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Which is exactly what Prime has been telling you for months now. You ready to take a break from here?
Oh Jesus. I was going to avoid embarrassing you on our bet, but you're clearly going to lose. There is no way the market goes below 10,000. That would take a recession at least the size of the last one. And that was the worse recession we've had in 70 years. Could we see another recession just as bad within this year? Yes. But it's not likely. The market could be overvalued, but at a certain point, and a point that would be well above 10,000, it would then be seen as being undervalued. At this point it won't go any lower. Is that point 15,000, 14,000, or even 12,000? Who knows. But it is very unlikely that point is below 10,000.
 
The Fed wasn't created to keep you happy Huey. It was created to maintain the imbalance of power. It's exactly the reason so many back in early times were against it coming to fruition here in America. They had seen what the Rothchild led Central banks had done to Europe.
Don't want to address my point that our economy has been far more stable and healthier under the Fed, do you?
 
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Don't want to address my point that our economy has been far more stable and healthier under the Fed, do you?
Has it? Then let us take a walk through history here. We'll start from the most well known crash. How exactly did the great depression happen then?

The FED was brought up in 1913 by the way.
 
It's been going down since the beginning of the new year my friend. China just entered bear market territory. This has not been up and down. This has been nothing but down since the beginning of this year. Gain, one day, lose more than the gain the next.
I know. And, it will continue to go up and down. That's what it does.
 
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Oh Jesus. I was going to avoid embarrassing you on our bet, but you're clearly going to lose. There is no way the market goes below 10,000. That would take a recession at least the size of the last one. And that was the worse recession we've had in 70 years. Could we see another recession just as bad within this year? Yes. But it's not likely. The market could be overvalued, but at a certain point, and a point that would be well above 10,000, it would then be seen as being undervalued. At this point it won't go any lower. Is that point 15,000, 14,000, or even 12,000? Who knows. But it is very unlikely that point is below 10,000.
You're hopeful, I'll give you that. You're going to lose this bet though.
 
Has it? Then let us take a walk through history here. We'll start from the most well known crash. How exactly did the great depression happen then?

The FED was brought up in 1913 by the way.
I've already been over this in other threads, but the Fed didn't know what it was doing during the Great Depression. But it learned a lot about what not to do. And now it's quite effective at mitigating the fallout of economic downturns. Sorry this doesn't fit your agenda but it doesn't make it any less true.
 
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Not worried.

This is all about China finally going bust and the worldwide oil glut.

The American economy is doing just fine.

If these dips were caused by something domestic, I'd be more worried, but these are basically things that are out of our hands. Saudi Arabia refuses to lower production and China's corruption and shady business tactics are finally going to bite them in the ass.
 
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With artificially near-zero rates, the markets have been pretty much the only game in town.

With the economy recovering and employment improving and so on, investors want to be in the game.

Put those 2 together and you get an overvalued market.

For about a year, the Fed teased and warned that a rate hike was coming. Every time they feinted, the market fainted. And the Fed backed off.

By the time the Fed finally raised rates, the hike was pretty much baked in.

And then this. Europe tanks, China tanks, oil tanks.
 
You're hopeful, I'll give you that. You're going to lose this bet though.
The DOW hasn't been below 10,000 since 2010. And before that, it was above 10,000 since the late 1990s. I think it's you who is being hopeful that our economy crashes again.
 
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I've already been over this in other threads, but the Fed didn't know what it was doing during the Great Depression. But it learned a lot about what not to do. And now it's quite effective at mitigating the fallout of economic downturns. Sorry this doesn't fit your agenda but it doesn't make it any less true.
It knew exactly what it was doing. You make the silliest excuses for things. There are far more intelligent men who disagree with you.
 
Oh Jesus. I was going to avoid embarrassing you on our bet, but you're clearly going to lose. There is no way the market goes below 10,000. That would take a recession at least the size of the last one. And that was the worse recession we've had in 70 years. Could we see another recession just as bad within this year? Yes. But it's not likely. The market could be overvalued, but at a certain point, and a point that would be well above 10,000, it would then be seen as being undervalued. At this point it won't go any lower. Is that point 15,000, 14,000, or even 12,000? Who knows. But it is very unlikely that point is below 10,000.

Just curious. Where are you getting all of these numbers and predictions? From others sources, or are you pulling them out of your ass based on your knowledge of the market? This is not meant to be an insult, just wondering what makes you believe what you're saying.
 
I've already been over this in other threads, but the Fed didn't know what it was doing during the Great Depression. But it learned a lot about what not to do. And now it's quite effective at mitigating the fallout of economic downturns. Sorry this doesn't fit your agenda but it doesn't make it any less true.

Really? Because what they did during the Great Depression was based on the U.S. Economy. Today, we live with a World Economy. Much Much more complex. So what makes you think the Fed can just look at what they did during the Depression and apply that to a completely different world?
 
Just curious. Where are you getting all of these numbers and predictions? From others sources, or are you pulling them out of your ass based on your knowledge of the market? This is not meant to be an insult, just wondering what makes you believe what you're saying.
It's a thing called the internet. It allows you to look up the historic values of the market as well as the losses of each recession. Welcome to 2015.
 
It's a thing called the internet. It allows you to look up the historic values of the market as well as the losses of each recession. Welcome to 2015.

See, you don't have to be an ass about it. Well, you do, it's in your blood. I was hoping you'd share some of the pieces you were reading to come to your conclusions.
 
Really? Because what they did during the Great Depression was based on the U.S. Economy. Today, we live with a World Economy. Much Much more complex. So what makes you think the Fed can just look at what they did during the Depression and apply that to a completely different world?
Um, because maybe the Fed didn't stop trying to learn what works at the Great Depression. They did, afterall, have a lot more recessions, including the last one to apply that knowledge. And speaking of the last recession, studies have found that intervention saved us from a far deeper recession. You serious with these posts?
 
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