Opinion time... Does IOWA have a chance to win the BTC.. 2018 or 2019

[Hawkeyeinsoutherncalifornia]

What year and why you think the Hawks have a bettter chance to win the BT West and the BTCG?

My answer is 2018 as we have the nucleus to win a BTT because of who we have returning and how are scheduling breaks down as very winnable home games to start the non conference and a few mighty challenges with WISCONSIN @ Home and a young PSU team that will be minus a lot of key players (with McSorely back it’s going to be tough to beat the Lions in front of a white out ... however revenge is going to be on the “eyes” for this game.. every other game I can see a “W” as I think IOWA can go either 11-1 or 10-2 ***ALSO*** The Purdue game is going to be a very tough game as well as Maryland as they will probably have all Quarterbacks back and they were dynamite when healthy ..

 

[Hawkdome]

Our best chance will be 2019 when stanley is a senior.

 

[Suterman]

We certainly have a chance to win it both years but things will need to break our way. #1 is find a way to beat Wisconsin. IF we can't do that, no title either year.

 

[IowaNiceHawk]

You need to include another option.

Both, boss

 

[icwesthawk]

2018 looks like our chance, but I'd only give it about a 7.75% probability.

 

[mvhomerj]

2018 looks like our chance, but I'd only give it about a 7.75% probability.

I'll round up to 8%.

 

[Gridiron24]

Won't happen this year. We don't have the horses in our defensive front 7 and our offense is a mess. Nate Stanley isn't good enough to overcome our bad receiving corps (one of the worst unit groups in the entire B10 conference) and offensive line. He ain't Phillip Rivers.

 

[Hawk94Mn]

The 2019 Defense will presumably have Rugumba, Hankins, Brents, Craddieth, Johnson, Hooker, and Stone, along with others yet to emerge as contributors, in the secondary. Will hopefully have two returning starters at linebacker, both of which will likely be seniors or juniors (Jones, Welch, Wade, Nick). Will have Epenesa, A Nelson, Gholston, Simon and Waggoner at DE. Lattimore, Nixon, Shannon, Duwa, and Linderbaum at DT.

That is potentially a very very stout defense. Obviously the success of either team will be determined by the LB’s abilities to learn the position. We have seen first year starters have success (2015) and have seen them struggle (2014). I would argue the personnel we are putting on the field is superior to that of our 2014 core. I also can imagine the amount of experience Jewell was able to pass onto these guys. I have feeling we will be pleasantly surprised by this group.

On offense we will be pretty raw yet again next year. However, in terms of our passing offense. It really should be more complete. My only worry is our ability to diagnose blitz's and block effectively in the interior. Our tackles, if properly positioned, are very tough to beat. Outside of Wisco and Purdue we were quite effective in pass pro. I think it’s probable that, that trend continues given the experience we gained this year. Outside, we will replace Matty V. But return two serious threats in Fant and Hock and two developing threats in ISM and Smith. ISM, if he learns to make the easy catch. Could really be something special. The guy has great quickness and has shown the ability to get behind defenders. Easely just needs to remain consistent and be the tough guy on 3rd down. Similar to Matty’s old role. I’m excited to see what Cooper and Tracy offer next year. One of them will likely get substantial playing time.

Stanley has the ability, now he needs the moxy. While we always want to have open receivers. A reality of college football is that you need a QB who can extend plays. With his size and improving pocket mobility hopefully he can mimic other large QB’s who are tough to bring down. A key for any great season is a QB who will win you games. The guy really does have the natural arm talent to do it.

RB’s will be interesting. I really like IKM but Toren is the power back this offense needs. I can’t wait to see what Geil and Bryan have to offer as well. This could be a sneaky good group if they can hold onto the ball.

All in all the talent is there. 2018 will likely have its hiccups but hopefully it will be mitigated by a more effective offense and far easier schedule.

2019, we return to a rather brutal schedule but the Tackle, D-Line, QB and Secondary Talent will be quite ridiculous. I am very excited to see how our offense develops under BF.

 

[kceasthawk]

Won't happen this year. We don't have the horses in our defensive front 7 and our offense is a mess. Nate Stanley isn't good enough to overcome our bad receiving corps (one of the worst unit groups in the entire B10 conference) and offensive line. He ain't Phillip Rivers.

Can't agree on much here. Our DL should be outstanding the next two years, and while were starting over at LB, its not like previous times when we had to play freshmen . All of the most likely candidates will be in their third year at least on the team, and have played some D1 football. The DB's will be fine. I'd expect the offense to be better next year. We are almost always able to come up with decent guards, its at tackle where we struggle most of the time. Jackson and Wirfs will be solid next year.
As for the Phillip Rivers comment, really? Never understood all of the slobbering over this guy. Please list all the big games he's won for the Chargers........Rivers is a poor, poor, poor, mans Dan Marino. Has big career numbers, but has accomplished next to nothing. Marino at least got his team to one SB.

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

A lot depends on how players emerge and improve. Furthermore, a lot depends on the health of guys.

However, if we have to base things on how the roster looks right now ...

• 2018 will have to deal with having a clear deficiency on the roster at LB. The group likely has talent ... but experience is where they'll take their hits.
• From the outside looking it - it would appear that most of Iowa's higher-end talent on the OL are underclassmen. The implication is that the group may still contend with inconsistency in '18.
• Given the talent that Iowa usually has at WR, guys often do not "break through" in terms of production until they are JRs. Given how young Iowa still is at WR, I'm sadly inclined to believe that we're still in store for some inconsistency at WR in '18 (I hope Copeland and his guys can prove me wrong).
• Two years in a row we've lost corners of the quality of King and Jackson. Thus, while I expect that the CB play will be solid in '18 ... I expect it to be even better in '19.

And as we look to 2019 ....

• The primary downside for the '19 DL is that guys like Matt Nelson and Parker Hesse really do stand out in terms of leadership. Thus, while our DL will still have a lot of excellent talent in '19 ... will guys be stepping up in terms of leadership? If I were to guess ... I think that guys like A. Nelson, Lattimore, and Reiff will step up and help supply the group with leadership. Heck, even as a JR, Epenesa may emerge as a field general too.
• Given how the personnel seems like it should/could shake out ... it looks like we really ought to have a strong back 7 on D in '19. We're talking about Hooker, Stone, and Craddieth at S ... Hankins, Rugamba, and a whole slew of other talented guys at CB ... and guys like Jones, Welch, Niemann, and Colbert (among others) at LB.
• As others have pointed out, Stanley will be a SR in '19. His experience SHOULD matter.
• Brian and the rest of the brain-trust on O should have more of the details worked out on the O ... so the passing and running games should likely mesh together better moving forward. Game will likely continue to get called better. Brian will learn from his mistakes.
• Even though I predict that Fant will go pro after the '18 season ... I expect Iowa's TE situation to continue to be exceptionally strong.
• As I alluded in describing the '18 issues ... the WR situation should really start maturing more (and hitting an equilibrium) by the time '19 comes around.
• There likely will be SOME transition on the OL ... but we'll have a number of multi-year starters too. That sort of experience on the OL tends to pay dividends.

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

Stanley has the ability, now he needs the moxy. While we always want to have open receivers. A reality of college football is that you need a QB who can extend plays. With his size and improving pocket mobility hopefully he can mimic other large QB’s who are tough to bring down. A key for any great season is a QB who will win you games. The guy really does have the natural arm talent to do it.

Stanley was a true sophomore in '17. Furthermore, defenses were throwing A LOT at him to digest in his first year starting.

When I watched him play ... I could see him as a student of the game try to do as he was coached. I could almost envision the sort of things O'Keefe would say to him ... for him to use his eyes to manipulate defenders ... for him to keep his eyes downfield and work through his progressions. As new QBs go ... I was pleasantly surprised by how Stanley didn't seem to only "lock on" to only a single target. Furthermore, we saw Stanley distribute the ball to a lot of different receiving targets - thus, that also indicates him working pretty well through his progressions.

However, it goes without saying that there are a ton of areas where he can advance his game. Although he's a bigger kid ... he can flash some mobility a little more if things break down because that can put a bit more pressure on Ds. As he and his teammates continue to improve their chemistry ... he can likely improve how well he works "off schedule" and improve his "improvisational" skills. Lastly, since the game likely will continue to be slowing down for him ... he's reaching a point where more can be heaped on his plate too. Thus, he'll likely get a bit more power in terms of checks/audibles.

Also, many "issues" that we observed in '17 might also get somewhat reconciled as Stanley's fellow teammates continue to improve too. Better blocking can lead to a stronger running game ... and that can make things much easier for the QB. Better blocking can also lead to better pass-pro ... and that can lead to a higher completion percentage and fewer hurried throws (and more longer completions too). Given all the "newness" among receiving targets in '17 ... I don't know if Iowa fans appreciate how crazy Iowa's passing TD numbers were in '17. Most of that is attributable to Brian's scheming and the effective utilization of the talent we have at TE. How will things continue to evolve ... particularly as Stanley and Brian continue to get better at what they do?

 

[TS568]

2018 we should have top 3 or 4 talent in the Big 10 and maybe one of the easier schedules in the country. Go 10-2 (7-2 in Big 10) and have one game for the title in Indy. We’ve seen the last 2 years (PSU, Mich, OSU) how this team when motivated brings it against elite competition.

 

[N.Legend]

Our best chance will be 2019 when stanley is a senior.

Recent history tells us that Iowa quarterback don't get much better from their Junior year to their Senior year.

 

[N.Legend]

2018 we should have top 3 or 4 talent in the Big 10 and maybe one of the easier schedules in the country. Go 10-2 (7-2 in Big 10) and have one game for the title in Indy. We’ve seen the last 2 years (PSU, Mich, OSU) how this team when motivated brings it against elite competition.

Hawks will have a weak running game (same line minus Daniels). And with Wadley gone (made his own holes) it could be worse than 2017. If that is the case Stanley could be in for a rough season. His lack of mobility will make him a sitting duck as opposing teams key on him and pay little attention to the running game. To win the conference Iowa will need to bring it each game, not just against the elite.

 

[Johnsoda123]

Hawks will have a weak running game (same line minus Daniels). And with Wadley gone (made his own holes) it could be worse than 2017. If that is the case Stanley could be in for a rough season. His lack of mobility will make him a sitting duck as opposing teams key on him and pay little attention to the running game. To win the conference Iowa will need to bring it each game, not just against the elite.

Iowa's rushing offense was poor in 2017, 11th in the B1G. I would hope that improves.

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

Hawks will have a weak running game (same line minus Daniels). And with Wadley gone (made his own holes) it could be worse than 2017. If that is the case Stanley could be in for a rough season. His lack of mobility will make him a sitting duck as opposing teams key on him and pay little attention to the running game. To win the conference Iowa will need to bring it each game, not just against the elite.

I understand that you're attempting to play the devils advocate, however, how is fantasy football logic applicable? When we're talking about young college football players ... aren't they far from finished products?

If you look at the '17 OL ... I see a group that was prepped originally to be centered about the play of 3 multi-year SR starters. Even when guys were injured ... they were still rotating line-ups with the idea of finding groupings that would/could work together (to accommodate transient change). Instead, 2 of the stalwart seniors were non-factors for the majority of the season due to injury. Consequently, not only did the Hawks have to feature 2 new starters at the OT spots ... they also had to deal with a juggled line.

Thus, as people rigorously break down the Iowa offensive line ... I must concede that Iowa's OL will be without their 2 best players from the 2017 OL. However, the implication here is that they RETURN 2 regular starters at OT and 2 rotated starters at the LG spot. On top of that, the do return a few players who have seen quality game play as well. The observation here being that ....

• Iowa still returns the majority of their starters from the '17 season
• the returning guys with experience will likely have improved from the prior season (because that is what most college football players do ... they learn the game better and play better as a consequence)
• Iowa's OL coach himself is more experienced ... thus, in all likelihood, the quality of his coaching will improve too. This further helps the players on the OL.
• In recent years, Iowa has been recruiting pretty decently on the OL. Thus, there are young guys who will likely emerge and play at a decent level.
• IF injuries are nominal ... then improved personnel continuity on the OL should invariably lead to improved OL-play.

 

[obfuscating]

I believe it will come down to the offense. If Brian doesn't make any significant improvement I wonder if fans will have any more patience? We suffered through GDGD, now we are doing an "apprenticeship" with BF\KOK.

 

[fezzador]

Iowa's rushing offense was poor in 2017, 11th in the B1G. I would hope that improves.

I'm actually surprised it was even that high. I was thinking closer to 13th.

 

[N.Legend]

I understand that you're attempting to play the devils advocate, however, how is fantasy football logic applicable? When we're talking about young college football players ... aren't they far from finished products?

If you look at the '17 OL ... I see a group that was prepped originally to be centered about the play of 3 multi-year SR starters. Even when guys were injured ... they were still rotating line-ups with the idea of finding groupings that would/could work together (to accommodate transient change). Instead, 2 of the stalwart seniors were non-factors for the majority of the season due to injury. Consequently, not only did the Hawks have to feature 2 new starters at the OT spots ... they also had to deal with a juggled line.

Thus, as people rigorously break down the Iowa offensive line ... I must concede that Iowa's OL will be without their 2 best players from the 2017 OL. However, the implication here is that they RETURN 2 regular starters at OT and 2 rotated starters at the LG spot. On top of that, the do return a few players who have seen quality game play as well. The observation here being that ....

• Iowa still returns the majority of their starters from the '17 season
• the returning guys with experience will likely have improved from the prior season (because that is what most college football players do ... they learn the game better and play better as a consequence)
• Iowa's OL coach himself is more experienced ... thus, in all likelihood, the quality of his coaching will improve too. This further helps the players on the OL.
• In recent years, Iowa has been recruiting pretty decently on the OL. Thus, there are young guys who will likely emerge and play at a decent level.
• IF injuries are nominal ... then improved personnel continuity on the OL should invariably lead to improved OL-play.

The 0 Line in 2018 played at a decent level but it didn't produce results. As for players and coaches it's a crap shoot as to how much they improve (the current basketball team is a perfect example). I know that fans like to believe in normal progression from one season to the next but that always isn't the case. Unless a coach can change bad habits (footwork, leverage, etc) and get the kids stronger, "normal" progression is hit or miss. I know fans look at a product and expect that product to improve year after year. The irony of this is other teams (defense) will improve as well. If defenses stay static and changes are made that created a weak running game in the first place than normal progress has a better chance of taking place.

 

[LeftyLarry]

Wisconsin will have it's best offense in many years next season, solid specials and good kicking but will need Jim Leonhard to put together another great defense.
NT Sagopolu & ILBs TJ Edwards & Connolly returning gives us strength in the middle against the run and OLB Van GInkel has become a STAR but Badgers pretty much have to replace the entire secondary and both DE's.
That talent is there, in players like DE Loudermilk, DE/NT Rand, OLB Baun, CB Carriere- Williams, question is, will they be ready to play.
I expect Badgers to be able to control time of possession with the entire OL back, Jonathon Taylor & company back, along with the best WR corps we've had in years but the replacement defenders will still have to step up a bit too.
Getting us early is good for Iowa.

 

[mikesright]

I think 2018 is going to be the year that we break out and possibly win a B1G title. We bring back perhaps the most physically talented team we've ever had under Ferentz this year in my opinion. Whether this team can mentally or physically be the actual best or play collectively well is an open question though. My guess based on the current roster is that we have 3 to 5 future first round draft picks - LT Jackson, QB Stanley, TE Fant, RT Wirfs, and DE Epenesa. However 3 of the 5 could be early entrants to the NFL draft for 2019.

At the end of the day how well this team will do is dependent on the glue players around them. I think we have great potential. I would guess we'll probably be deficient at LB and Corner on defense, and have good to elite play from the DL and Safeties. On O I think we'll be deficient at WR and the interior line, but great at tackle, QB, RB, and TE.

The ultimate question that will have to be answered in order to have a great season is: can we find 2 decent WRs, a decent punter, a decent punt returner, and a good mike LB on this team by fall?

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

The 0 Line in 2018 played at a decent level but it didn't produce results. As for players and coaches it's a crap shoot as to how much they improve (the current basketball team is a perfect example). I know that fans like to believe in normal progression from one season to the next but that always isn't the case. Unless a coach can change bad habits (footwork, leverage, etc) and get the kids stronger, "normal" progression is hit or miss. I know fans look at a product and expect that product to improve year after year. The irony of this is other teams (defense) will improve as well. If defenses stay static and changes are made that created a weak running game in the first place than normal progress has a better chance of taking place.

Interestingly, some of the very things you talk about are the very reason why it's pretty common for many of Iowa's very best O-linemen to either have converted from a different position to the OL or they were a pretty raw talent in high school who didn't have a long history of youth OL-play. Consequently, just as you mentioned, the coaches then don't have to spend as much time breaking players of bad habits.

At Iowa, the usually "progression" for the O-linemen is characterized by improvement in 3 different areas:

1. Physical development: Chris Doyle is one of the best in the business. Players physically develop which helps them to have better endurance AND it helps them to win more of their position-battles.
2. Technical development: Here there is huge emphasis on synchrony of steps in our zone-blocking scheme. Also, there is huge emphasis on hand-placement and body positioning ... largely to ensure that the player owns leverage advantages. Good technique is obviously critical for players to consistently execute their responsibilities (on any given play).
3. Mental (football IQ) development: This facet is largely more player-based. Coaches can tell players that they need to watch more film and to critically break down more film. However, players need to both learn how to do it effectively AND they need to make sure that they put in all the time to gain that they can from the film. This not only helps the player to play faster ... but by knowing and understanding what they're doing ... it helps them to adapt better to what the opposing D is throwing at them. Just like improved technical development ... mental development helps players to make fewer bad reads ... and consequently the player executes more consistently (at a higher level).

When you consider that Iowa's Offensive line will feature a bunch of SOs in '18 .... there are A TON of improvements that the young guys can make. Wirfs and Jackson have pretty decent size ... so concerning the first category ... their bigger physical improvements will likely relate to functional strength and conditioning. However, in the latter 2 categories ... Jackson and Wirfs can still make enormous gains. Given this observation, it suggests to me that critical guys on Iowa's OL can make big enough improvements to make a significant difference for the O-line.

Of course, if we're talking about the running game and issues of blocking ... Iowa had far more issues than just on the OL. However, I will address these elements in a separate post.

 

[HawkGem11]

Neither

 

[thewop]

In football?

 

[Hawk94Mn]

Wisconsin will have it's best offense in many years next season, solid specials and good kicking but will need Jim Leonhard to put together another great defense.
NT Sagopolu & ILBs TJ Edwards & Connolly returning gives us strength in the middle against the run and OLB Van GInkel has become a STAR but Badgers pretty much have to replace the entire secondary and both DE's.
That talent is there, in players like DE Loudermilk, DE/NT Rand, OLB Baun, CB Carriere- Williams, question is, will they be ready to play.
I expect Badgers to be able to control time of possession with the entire OL back, Jonathon Taylor & company back, along with the best WR corps we've had in years but the replacement defenders will still have to step up a bit too.
Getting us early is good for Iowa.

Yikes

I didn’t realize Edwards and Connolly were both back.

Danny Davis is a true talent. They need to find another tightend but a third year QB with Taylor and that online is scary.

I’d prefer to meet the badgers later, preferably in a poor weather game. At least the game is in Kinnick and presumably the Badgers will be rated 7 or 8th maybe higher depending on how they perform in the Non-Con. If the Hawks can stay clean they may have an outside shot at a ranking. Depending on the national scene, it has a decent shot at being game day as well. Place should be rocking

 

[Capital1Hawk]

What year and why you think the Hawks have a bettter chance to win the BT West and the BTCG?

My answer is 2018 as we have the nucleus to win a BTT because of who we have returning and how are scheduling breaks down as very winnable home games to start the non conference and a few mighty challenges with WISCONSIN @ Home and a young PSU team that will be minus a lot of key players (with McSorely back it’s going to be tough to beat the Lions in front of a white out ... however revenge is going to be on the “eyes” for this game.. every other game I can see a “W” as I think IOWA can go either 11-1 or 10-2 ***ALSO*** The Purdue game is going to be a very tough game as well as Maryland as they will probably have all Quarterbacks back and they were dynamite when healthy ..

If we can get a punter then back to back

 

[Hwk-I-St8]

The 0 Line in 2018 played at a decent level but it didn't produce results. As for players and coaches it's a crap shoot as to how much they improve (the current basketball team is a perfect example). I know that fans like to believe in normal progression from one season to the next but that always isn't the case. Unless a coach can change bad habits (footwork, leverage, etc) and get the kids stronger, "normal" progression is hit or miss. I know fans look at a product and expect that product to improve year after year. The irony of this is other teams (defense) will improve as well. If defenses stay static and changes are made that created a weak running game in the first place than normal progress has a better chance of taking place.

Did you post this from the future?

 

[N.Legend]

Interestingly, some of the very things you talk about are the very reason why it's pretty common for many of Iowa's very best O-linemen to either have converted from a different position to the OL or they were a pretty raw talent in high school who didn't have a long history of youth OL-play. Consequently, just as you mentioned, the coaches then don't have to spend as much time breaking players of bad habits.

At Iowa, the usually "progression" for the O-linemen is characterized by improvement in 3 different areas:

1. Physical development: Chris Doyle is one of the best in the business. Players physically develop which helps them to have better endurance AND it helps them to win more of their position-battles.
2. Technical development: Here there is huge emphasis on synchrony of steps in our zone-blocking scheme. Also, there is huge emphasis on hand-placement and body positioning ... largely to ensure that the player owns leverage advantages. Good technique is obviously critical for players to consistently execute their responsibilities (on any given play).
3. Mental (football IQ) development: This facet is largely more player-based. Coaches can tell players that they need to watch more film and to critically break down more film. However, players need to both learn how to do it effectively AND they need to make sure that they put in all the time to gain that they can from the film. This not only helps the player to play faster ... but by knowing and understanding what they're doing ... it helps them to adapt better to what the opposing D is throwing at them. Just like improved technical development ... mental development helps players to make fewer bad reads ... and consequently the player executes more consistently (at a higher level).

When you consider that Iowa's Offensive line will feature a bunch of SOs in '18 .... there are A TON of improvements that the young guys can make. Wirfs and Jackson have pretty decent size ... so concerning the first category ... their bigger physical improvements will likely relate to functional strength and conditioning. However, in the latter 2 categories ... Jackson and Wirfs can still make enormous gains. Given this observation, it suggests to me that critical guys on Iowa's OL can make big enough improvements to make a significant difference for the O-line.

Of course, if we're talking about the running game and issues of blocking ... Iowa had far more issues than just on the OL. However, I will address these elements in a separate post.

And yet the O-line went from very good on paper to being mediocre on the field.

 

[The_Joker13]

No

 

[Hock-I]

Our best chance will be 2019 when stanley is a senior.

For this reason, I say 2018. We have had more QB’s perform better in their junior years.

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

And yet the O-line went from very good on paper to being mediocre on the field.

Iowa was good "on paper" because we returned so many guys with starting experience. That changed with the injuries to Myers and then Boettger. Furthermore, Hawk fans likely perceived that we had some depth ... but that too was undermined given the pre-season injuries to LeGrand, Ferguson, and Levi Paulson. If that weren't bad enough, Daniels wad dinged gor much of the season ... and a pre-season injury had slowed the development of Wirfs.

But yes, ultimately Iowa's O-line play was rather mediocre on the year ... but a lot of that was attributable to inconsistency. The Ohio State and Nebraska games illustrated the flashes the group could have when they played with better consistency.

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

Recent history tells us that Iowa quarterback don't get much better from their Junior year to their Senior year.

History demonstrates that Iowa's QB play tends to improve under O'Keefe's tutelage. When healthy, Iowa's SR QBs have put up their best production. Banks had a great season as a SR. Tate progressed through his first 3 seasons ... but injuries and transitions at WR undermined his SR production. Stanzi played his best and cleanest ball as a SR. Lastly, VandenBerg had improved through his tutelage under O'Keefe. VandenBerg's SR season saw a downturn because of O'Keefe's departure and the change in scheme.