Dan faced an uphill challenge when he came to Iowa State. The program was in the dumps. But what he may not have anticipated is that the schedule was very difficult. In the early Big 12, three north teams were in the national championship conversation. A&M was really good. Texas and Oklahoma were not up to their standards, but they were still far ahead of Iowa State. I often wondered what Dan thought when he saw the schedule he was up against.
Well, he hung in there and the worm turned. Nebraska, Kansas State and Colorado all took a step back. Oklahoma and Texas came back, but Iowa State avoided them 2 years of every four. When the power in the south realigned with Texas and Oklahoma at the top, Dan finally broke through when he didn't have to face them and the north was weak. With one exception, Dan's success came in years when OU and UT were not on the schedule. Heck, he tied for the division championship with a 4-4 conference record.
So much of a coach's success is defined by who he plays. Fast forward to Paul Rhoads. His best years so far were the early years. But when the conference restructured and went to a round robin, things got really tough. There were few automatic wins on the schedule. The Baylor resurgence took a potential win away. TCU and West Virginia came in with very successful programs replacing some mediocre programs.
Two years ago Rhoads had a young team. Last year he was devastated by injuries. This year the team has a lot more experience and depth and they look to be a better team. A much better team. But just where are the wins supposed to come from? Toledo may go unbeaten, but Iowa State let that one get way. Iowa was a potential win pre-season, but Iowa looks a lot better this year and took control of the game in the second half. Kansas should be a win, although they will also be looking at ISU as their only chance for a win. After Kansas I don't know where the next win will come from. Other than Texas and K-State, the rest of the teams are all ranked or in the case of Texas Tech, knocking on the door.
I think Rhoads is a darn good coach that finds himself in an impossible situation. He needs to find a way to pull out at least 3 or 4 conference wins or he's gone. And that's too bad. I know Hawks probably don't like him because he's the ISU coach, but he really is a great guy. The only way his successor wins is if he is a darn good coach and is the beneficiary of a more opportunistic schedule.