Petras/Padilla Passing on Third Down - A Breakdown

[KinnickCrawler]

Stats are for the final eight games of the season. (Penn State on, including the BTCG)

Petras played 52 third-down passing plays. Iowa got a first down or touchdown 18 times (34.6%). Of the 34 failed attempts, Petras threw an incomplete pass 21 times, completed too short of a pass to get the first down seven times, was sacked five times, fumbled once, scrambled and ran short of the sticks once, and threw one interception.

His stat line on those plays: 22-43, 199 yards, 1 fumble, 1 INT, 5 Sacks (Totaling 35 Yards), 4.62 YPA

Padilla played 35 third-down passing plays. Iowa got a first down or touchdown 10 times (28.5%). Of the 25 failed attempts, Padilla threw an incomplete pass 18 times, completed too short of a pass to get the first down five times, was sacked twice, and threw an interception.

His stat line on those plays: 15-33, 203 yards, 1 INT, 2 Sacks (Totaling 10 Yards), 6.15 YPA

What does this mean? Probably that I have way too much time on my hands.

What sticks out? How shockingly awful the YPA are for both QBs!

Some notable YPAs this season (Keep in mind, this isn't just for third-down, but to give you some idea): Adrian Martinez had a 9.36. Tanner Morgan had an 8.2. Brock Purdy had an 8.11.

 

[NorthDSMHawk]

Just something to also consider:

Total Defense Rankings:

PSU (36) - Full game Petras
Purdue (32) - Full game Petras
Wisconsin (1) - Full game Petras
NW (104) - 1/4 Petras, 3/4 Padilla
Minn (4) - Full game Padilla
Illinois (51) - Full game Padilla
Nebraska (52) - even split
Michigan (13) - even split

To make it easier, drop Neb and Michigan since they split the game, and moved NW over to Padilla since it was an easy majority of the series.

Average Total Defensive Ranking for full Petras games of your list: 23

Average Total Defensive Ranking for full Padilla games of your list: 53

I'm also a firm believer that total defense/total offense stats are bullshit since they don't take into account style of play, but I'm too lazy to sort and recount by avg. per play so here you go.

 

[red/green hawk]

 

[Pepperman]

I think Padilla’s had some bad drops too, if we’re being fair?

 

[MVPFAN]

I think Padilla’s had some bad drops too, if we’re being fair?

Yep, how many of the Padilla incompletes we're drops.

 

[Bulldogs1974]

How many were sacks?

 

[jo12208]

I think Padilla’s had some bad drops too, if we’re being fair?

They were both bad.

 

[sober_teacher]

If I had to choose between those two, and Labas wasn’t in the picture, I think I’d pick Petras on like a 60/40 decision. More because I think the line will be better next year, and I think the offense is more open with him. If I thought the line would be poor again next year, I’d want Padilla because he’s better able to escape a dead play.

 

[CO_hawk]

What was the average yards to gain on third down for each?

 

[Titanhawk2]

YPA is affected by the abysmal completion percentage, isn't it?

 

[Mohawkeye]

Any way you look at it, we have two sub-average QBs.

 

[sober_teacher]

YPA is affected by the abysmal completion percentage, isn't it?

No. YPA just charts the average distance a pass travels, whether it’s caught or not doesn’t matter.

 

[Hawkeyenuts66]

Comparing the two is a fool's errand. Petras had 11 full games of experience before Padilla ever saw the field. Give Padilla the same number of games and see where they are at before you start comparing stats. At this point it's apples and oranges.

 

[citizenHawk]

Padilla doesn't have the advantage of playing in 10+ more games for equal experience. Has it already been decided he's reached his ceiling? Seems premature, where Petras has had a long rope to improve, and that ceiling is evident.

I just wish both of them haven't been coached to play for a punt over trying to make a play down field on third down. Can't succeed if you can't try.

 

[hawkfan2679]

Petras
His stat line on those plays: 22-43, 199 yards, 1 fumble, 1 INT, 5 Sacks (Totaling 35 Yards), 4.62 YPA

Padilla
His stat line on those plays: 15-33, 203 yards, 1 INT, 2 Sacks (Totaling 10 Yards), 6.15 YPA

Petras YPA...blech. Well below his season average of 6.5.
Padilla YPA...not great either. Padilla's full year average was sub 6.0, but it's really a tale of two partial seasons for him. First 2 games (NW and Minny) his YPA was 7.27. His next 3 games (Illini, Neb, Mich) were 4.28 (including a 2.53 vs. Michigan...woof).

What was the average yards to gain on third down for each?

This would be interesting to note, although probably a lot more work.

YPA is affected by the abysmal completion percentage, isn't it?

Sure would be.

No. YPA just charts the average distance a pass travels, whether it’s caught or not doesn’t matter.

??? Are you talking about air yards? Yards per attempt, in the simplest form, in just yards divided by attempts. Unless I'm missing something.

 

[BBHawk]

Yep, how many of the Padilla incompletes we're drops.

"We're drops"?

 

[sober_teacher]

Petras YPA...blech. Well below his season average of 6.5.
Padilla YPA...not great either. Padilla's full year average was sub 6.0, but it's really a tale of two partial seasons for him. First 2 games (NW and Minny) his YPA was 7.27. His next 3 games (Illini, Neb, Mich) were 4.28 (including a 2.53 vs. Michigan...woof).

This would be interesting to note, although probably a lot more work.

Sure would be.

??? Are you talking about air yards? Yards per attempt, in the simplest form, in just yards divided by attempts. Unless I'm missing something.

of course, he was asking if the stat was impacted by the drops. We’re talking yards per attempt here, to yards per catch.

 

[jonesy5960]

No. YPA just charts the average distance a pass travels, whether it’s caught or not doesn’t matter.

You serious Clark ?

 

[hawkfan2679]

of course, he was asking if the stat was impacted by the drops. We’re talking yards per attempt here, to yards per catch.

I would be interested to see the air yards per attempt as well. I think I posted several weeks ago with some data about Padilla's first 2 starts, the air yards of his passing attempts, and how it certainly seemed we were taking more deep shots with him at the helm than with Petras. Then again, that was before those last 3 games I referenced for Padilla, which were pretty stat-killing.

 

[sober_teacher]

You serious Clark ?

What’s unclear about what I’m saying? If Padilla throws 5 passes, the attempt is measured at either where a ball is caught, or if incomplete, where it hits the ground. If that adds up to 45 yards, then he’s averaging 9 ypa. If we’re only talking about catches, then say he completed 3 of them for 21 yards, then he’s averaging 7 YPC. am I not saying this right?

 

[desihawk]

according to google, sophie's choice award is an impossibly difficult choice between two unbearable options that yields an unfortunate winning decision.

really really both guys significantly up their accuracy+poise.

 

[hawkfan2679]

What’s unclear about what I’m saying? If Padilla throws 5 passes, the attempt is measured at either where a ball is caught, or if incomplete, where it hits the ground. If that adds up to 45 yards, then he’s averaging 9 ypa. If we’re only talking about catches, then say he completed 3 of them for 21 yards, then he’s averaging 7 YPC. am I not saying this right?

Maybe we're not talking about the same thing.

Your scenario:
If a QB throws (5) 10 yard passes but they are all incomplete, what is his yards per completion and yards per attempt?

My scenario:
His YPC would be 0.0 and his YPA would be 0.0.

Unless you were talking about air yards, which I'm not sure you were...in my scenario the air yards/attempt would be 10.0.

 

[BBHawk]

Maybe we're not talking about the same thing.

Your scenario:
If a QB throws (5) 10 yard passes but they are all incomplete, what is his yards per completion and yards per attempt?

My scenario:
His YPC would be 0.0 and his YPA would be 0.0.

Unless you were talking about air yards, which I'm not sure you were...in my scenario the air yards/attempt would be 10.0.

This makes no sense.

 

[Capital1Hawk]

Petras YPA...blech. Well below his season average of 6.5.
Padilla YPA...not great either. Padilla's full year average was sub 6.0, but it's really a tale of two partial seasons for him. First 2 games (NW and Minny) his YPA was 7.27. His next 3 games (Illini, Neb, Mich) were 4.28 (including a 2.53 vs. Michigan...woof).

This would be interesting to note, although probably a lot more work.

Sure would be.

??? Are you talking about air yards? Yards per attempt, in the simplest form, in just yards divided by attempts. Unless I'm missing something.

Padilla was taking shots down field those first few games and was loving it. Like Peyton Manning used to say you don't throw at the sticks and need to catch the D off guard and test them. Somehow he reverted back and was playing boring Iowa check down offense ball later in the year.

 

[notlongago]

What’s unclear about what I’m saying? If Padilla throws 5 passes, the attempt is measured at either where a ball is caught, or if incomplete, where it hits the ground. If that adds up to 45 yards, then he’s averaging 9 ypa. If we’re only talking about catches, then say he completed 3 of them for 21 yards, then he’s averaging 7 YPC. am I not saying this right?

Not at all what YPA is.
YPA is just total passing yards divided by pass attempts.

 

[hawkeyeinmo]

No. YPA just charts the average distance a pass travels, whether it’s caught or not doesn’t matter.

No, that is not how it works.

 

[hawkfan2679]

This makes no sense.

Agreed...but I'm trying to understand where he's coming from. I think he's talking about air yards per attempt, which is not an easily attainable metric (only folks who chart passes on a game-by-game basis would be likely to have this info).

 

[BBHawk]

Agreed...but I'm trying to understand where he's coming from. I think he's talking about air yards per attempt, which is not an easily attainable metric (only folks who chart passes on a game-by-game basis would be likely to have this info).

He was.

 

[Capital1Hawk]

Padilla was taking shots down field those first few games and was loving it. Like Peyton Manning used to say you don't throw at the sticks and need to catch the D off guard and test them. Somehow he reverted back and was playing boring Iowa check down offense ball later in the year.

If we get Kasper, Kirk needs to change his philosophy. He's the type of kid you let the QB throw it up and let him make a play. Don't worry about a turnover just give him a chance to make a deep play.

 

[jonesy5960]

What’s unclear about what I’m saying? If Padilla throws 5 passes, the attempt is measured at either where a ball is caught, or if incomplete, where it hits the ground. If that adds up to 45 yards, then he’s averaging 9 ypa. If we’re only talking about catches, then say he completed 3 of them for 21 yards, then he’s averaging 7 YPC. am I not saying this right?

I thought you were joking. YPA is total passing yards divided by total attempts. Incompletions don't factor into the numerator, only the denominator. There is no such thing as yardage of incomplete passes. You need to change your handle or put down the bottle Sober.

 

[DodgerHawki]

Stats are for the final eight games of the season. (Penn State on, including the BTCG)

Petras played 52 third-down passing plays. Iowa got a first down or touchdown 18 times (34.6%). Of the 34 failed attempts, Petras threw an incomplete pass 21 times, completed too short of a pass to get the first down seven times, was sacked five times, fumbled once, scrambled and ran short of the sticks once, and threw one interception.

His stat line on those plays: 22-43, 199 yards, 1 fumble, 1 INT, 5 Sacks (Totaling 35 Yards), 4.62 YPA

Padilla played 35 third-down passing plays. Iowa got a first down or touchdown 10 times (28.5%). Of the 25 failed attempts, Padilla threw an incomplete pass 18 times, completed too short of a pass to get the first down five times, was sacked twice, and threw an interception.

His stat line on those plays: 15-33, 203 yards, 1 INT, 2 Sacks (Totaling 10 Yards), 6.15 YPA

What does this mean? Probably that I have way too much time on my hands.

What sticks out? How shockingly awful the YPA are for both QBs!

Some notable YPAs this season (Keep in mind, this isn't just for third-down, but to give you some idea): Adrian Martinez had a 9.36. Tanner Morgan had an 8.2. Brock Purdy had an 8.11.

Yeah those third-down numbers are just abysmal. When Iowa was in situations where they had to throw, just completely bad. No other way to put it. The entire concept for Iowa's passing game need to be thrown out and redone. It's amazing that they got to 10-3 with being that bad in passing situations.

 

[DodgerHawki]

Padilla was taking shots down field those first few games and was loving it. Like Peyton Manning used to say you don't throw at the sticks and need to catch the D off guard and test them. Somehow he reverted back and was playing boring Iowa check down offense ball later in the year.

He basically took shots down the field with success in 1 game (Minnesota). His season.

Northwestern. Was very good, even better than his stats would indicate. 18-28 (64%), 172 yards. 6.4 yards per attempt, really hurt by a drop by Jones on a gorgeous intermediate crossing route. It wasn't one of those fastballs that Padilla threw sometimes that counted as drops, but a great throw.
Minnesota - 11-24 for 206 yards, 8.6 yards per attempt. Yes, some drops but hints of inaccuracy showing up and overall discombobulation of Iowa passing game.
Illinois - 6-17 for 83 yards, 4.9 yards per attempt. Interception. Not good, not good at all. Again, some drops but some of those "drops" were on fastballs on very short passes.
Nebraska - 6-14 for 76 yards, 5.4 yards per attempt. Could have had a TD, Laporta dropped it as he hit the ground. But a better throw and that doesn't happen.

Petras was marginally better this year but neither QB took control of the position.

 

[sober_teacher]

I thought you were joking. YPA is total passing yards divided by total attempts. Incompletions don't factor into the numerator, only the denominator. There is no such thing as yardage of incomplete passes. You need to change your handle or put down the bottle Sober.

Or it’s just possible that I misunderstood the stat. God knows there’s only about 10,000 or so we can use these days.

 

[The Deplorable Sleeping Dog]

Petras was marginally better this year but neither QB took control of the position.

That my friend is what we call an understatement of significant proportion.

 

[MeetTheFerentz]

Stats are for the final eight games of the season. (Penn State on, including the BTCG)

Petras played 52 third-down passing plays. Iowa got a first down or touchdown 18 times (34.6%). Of the 34 failed attempts, Petras threw an incomplete pass 21 times, completed too short of a pass to get the first down seven times, was sacked five times, fumbled once, scrambled and ran short of the sticks once, and threw one interception.

His stat line on those plays: 22-43, 199 yards, 1 fumble, 1 INT, 5 Sacks (Totaling 35 Yards), 4.62 YPA

Padilla played 35 third-down passing plays. Iowa got a first down or touchdown 10 times (28.5%). Of the 25 failed attempts, Padilla threw an incomplete pass 18 times, completed too short of a pass to get the first down five times, was sacked twice, and threw an interception.

His stat line on those plays: 15-33, 203 yards, 1 INT, 2 Sacks (Totaling 10 Yards), 6.15 YPA

What does this mean? Probably that I have way too much time on my hands.

What sticks out? How shockingly awful the YPA are for both QBs!

Some notable YPAs this season (Keep in mind, this isn't just for third-down, but to give you some idea): Adrian Martinez had a 9.36. Tanner Morgan had an 8.2. Brock Purdy had an 8.11.

You don't need a chi square chart and a degree in calculus to come to the conclusion that both our QB's sucked this year.

 

[tarheelbybirth]

What’s unclear about what I’m saying? If Padilla throws 5 passes, the attempt is measured at either where a ball is caught, or if incomplete, where it hits the ground. If that adds up to 45 yards, then he’s averaging 9 ypa. If we’re only talking about catches, then say he completed 3 of them for 21 yards, then he’s averaging 7 YPC. am I not saying this right?

10 passes. 0 completions. 0 YPA.

10 passes. 5 completions. 100 total yards. 10 YPA.

10 passes. 10 completions. 100 total yards. Still 10 YPA.

The incompletions do not factor in.

 

[The Deplorable Sleeping Dog]

You don't need a chi square chart and a degree in calculus to come to the conclusion that both our QB's sucked this year.

True but it is more fun to do the actual math-that produces a conclusion that Iowa's QBs sucked this year.

I think Chuck Long had a 10+ YPC season.

 

[WinOneThisCentury II]

"Great quarterbacks aren't always great...they are just great when they have to be."

Neither of our QBs have shown this consistently...and this goes back to the Nate Stanley years. What I don't understand...is how, in year two and year three of our QBs, the completion percentage almost never goes up measurably. It should.

Listen...CJ Stroud is a freshman. I watched him alot this year. He struggled some early in the year with accuracy...but he made huge improvements, within the year. I'm telling you...the two throws yesterday from Petras where he overthrew Ragaini and underthrew, I think Bruce were just egregious throws. The guys were wide open by yards and the are down the field shots for big gains. I guarantee you Stroud gets completions on both...99% of the time. His misses are small so they still catch the damn ball...the YAC just may not be as great.

I hope Spencer improves, has a great spring, great fall, then completes 68% of his passes and has a monster year next year. That being said...I see no reason to believe that will happen.

The same for Padilla in a smaller sample size. Although it's really not fair as he just didn't get enough games under his belt to determine his ceiling and where he is to that ceiling. He's gone though...and I don't blame him.

I hope Labas is as good as his hype...or we find a third QB to compete.

 

[farina1]

Yep, how many of the Padilla incompletes we're drops.

I believe I saw his adjusted completion was around 70%. Not to mention he had a couple of completions called back by penalty. Padilla sample size far too small to make comparisons between the two. All I know I have never seen a QB miss wide open receivers by a mile like SP.

 

[RomanHawk]

If we get Kasper, Kirk needs to change his philosophy. He's the type of kid you let the QB throw it up and let him make a play. Don't worry about a turnover just give him a chance to make a deep play.

That should be done with more receivers than just Kasper. Not doing it is one of the deficiencies of our passing game.