Points at Nationals according to seeding........................
- Thread starter bammhawk1
- Start date
Now that I have the prediction engine running, I'm thinking of running through EVERY match for Nationals to see what WrestleStat predicts. Will take some time, so not sure if I'll get all the way through it....but that's the plan.
If wrestled to seed without any bonus points:
PSU 113
OKST 102
OSU 98.5
VT 73.5
IOWA 72
MIZZ 61.5
Cornell 42.5
NEB 42
MINN 36
ASU 33
WIS 28.5
NC State 16
UNC 12
Edinboro 12
based on the following points per seed:
1 20
2 16
3 13.5
4 12.5
5 10
6 9
7 6.5
8 5.5
9-12 2
13-16 1.5
PSU 113
OKST 102
OSU 98.5
VT 73.5
IOWA 72
MIZZ 61.5
Cornell 42.5
NEB 42
MINN 36
ASU 33
WIS 28.5
NC State 16
UNC 12
Edinboro 12
based on the following points per seed:
1 20
2 16
3 13.5
4 12.5
5 10
6 9
7 6.5
8 5.5
9-12 2
13-16 1.5
I just ran all of 125, took about 45 minutes. The results
1 Gilman
2 Dance
3 Cruz
4 Piccininni
5 Suriano
6 Josh Rodriguez
7 Lambert
8 Mueller
Ouch, times 10!!!
I was going to also calculate all of the team points as well.
Which would you guys rather see? This stuff? Or a legend on the enter picks page that tells how much each seed is worth so you don't have to pick the guy, then find out that seed was more than you could afford?
I was going to also calculate all of the team points as well.
Which would you guys rather see? This stuff? Or a legend on the enter picks page that tells how much each seed is worth so you don't have to pick the guy, then find out that seed was more than you could afford?
Andre, it would have been nice, but it didn't take much to figure out what each seed was worth. Love how you did it for us!
It would be cool to see what the prediction engine picks in each match and ultimately the placing at each weight. But yeah that might take awhile.
I know this has been brought up before, but the prediction engine doesn't predict bonus points very well. In all of the matches at 125 there were a total of 9 major decisions and no tech falls or falls predicted. Everything else was a decision.
Yeah, definitely can use some tweaking in that area. Still trying to figure out what's an acceptable win percentage that I should strive for, I think right now it hits at about 70%...picking the win AND win type is less than 50% though, which goes along with what you are seeing.
Because of an illegal hold?
I think they call Clark for pulling the headgear in the WrestleStat match.
I figured they called Clark for tomatoes hand getting caught in his shoulder brace. Tomato pulled on it once during the match. I was surprised they didn't ding Clark then.
197
1. Wilcke
2. Cox
3. Pfarr
4. Moore
5. Haught
6. McCutcheon
Has Wilcke TF Cox 30-15 in the 2nd. No RT.
1. Wilcke
2. Cox
3. Pfarr
4. Moore
5. Haught
6. McCutcheon
Has Wilcke TF Cox 30-15 in the 2nd. No RT.
Hey fellas, I went ahead and slapped a legend on there that tells how many points each seed is worth. I also added a link to a rules page for people.
Lastly, I noticed some a$$hole changed seeds 1 - 5 for 125. I got those corrected, but iof anyone notices any other seeds that are incorrect, please let me know asap.
Lastly, I noticed some a$$hole changed seeds 1 - 5 for 125. I got those corrected, but iof anyone notices any other seeds that are incorrect, please let me know asap.
184
1. Nickal (wins 8-7 over Dean)
2. Dean
3. Zavatsky
4. Brooks
5. Dudley
6. Boyd
7. Martin
8. Jackson
1. Nickal (wins 8-7 over Dean)
2. Dean
3. Zavatsky
4. Brooks
5. Dudley
6. Boyd
7. Martin
8. Jackson
Wrestlestat does love some Okie St. Once I get done with 197 and 285 I will calculate total points including any bonus points. See where the top 5 stand.
Well, there you have it. The balance of Okie State wins out and carries the day. Based on placement and advancement points (no bonus), I come up with totals of:
Okie State - 113.5
PSU - 102.5
tOSU - 90
Iowa - 84.5
Might as well close the books on this tournament.
Okie State - 113.5
PSU - 102.5
tOSU - 90
Iowa - 84.5
Might as well close the books on this tournament.
Did you do loser side matches also?Well, there you have it. The balance of Okie State wins out and carries the day. Based on placement and advancement points (no bonus), I come up with totals of:
Okie State - 113.5
PSU - 102.5
tOSU - 90
Iowa - 84.5
Might as well close the books on this tournament.
I did the entire bracket. With bonus points included the final scores.
Oklahoma State 122
Penn St 121
Ohio St 101.5
Iowa 96
VA Tech 66.5
Missouri 62.5
'there are no losers in wrestling, only winners and learners"
Wow, thank you for that!
Now, if only I could have had you save the comparison page (URL) for all of those 1st round matchups....that would have saved me for my next post next week.
Also, that's very interesting to see the final scores for each team when you compare it to the Tournament Rankings on WrestleStat. Quite a difference there: http://www.wrestlestat.com/rankings/tournament
Wait, is there really that much of a gap between Iowa and VaTech? That's really surprising!
The biggest surprise for VA Tech was Jared Haught at 197. It had him losing to Tom Sleigh in the 2nd round and then losing his second consi match to McCutcheon from Penn St. Only earned 1.5 team points.
I reran 157 with the new bracket. If you didn't hear, Murphy from Michigan withdrew. Top 6 still the same and only added 0.5 point to Iowa as Kemerer now gets TF in the first round instead of Major.
1. Nolf
2. Kemerer
3. Palacio
4. Lavallee
5. Berger
6. Smith
7. Parsons
8. Clagon
1. Nolf
2. Kemerer
3. Palacio
4. Lavallee
5. Berger
6. Smith
7. Parsons
8. Clagon
By comparison, here's what my abacus has:
https://setonhallpirate.wordpress.com/2017/03/10/team-projections-based-on-the-dual-impact-index/
https://setonhallpirate.wordpress.com/2017/03/10/team-projections-based-on-the-dual-impact-index/
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