Hillary conceded the election within hours.
Hillary went on to say the election was stolen for years. She even put it in her book.
What is interesting is that you can have markets that appear to be highly correlated to political affiliation. IEM, Can get shares of Trump for 15 cents on the dollar. Then go to Polymarket and over 60 cents. I really wish I hadn't closed my IEM account.
But She conceeded. Trump felt since more attention wasn't put on Bidens son laptop that (whether manipulated or not), and that there were fraudulent votes (that he could never prove) that he had won. He never conceded. Came up with a false electoral scheme, and when Pence didn't go along, he got his minions to overrun the capital.
IEM is not any "political affiliation"
You are correct no political affiliation, but they have students participate, often more than 50% of the purchased contracts, that lean heavily democrat. Along with educated individuals who are aware of the market, also who lean heavily democratic. You have to acknowledge it appears to have a democratic lean that isn't showing up any poll data, to me this is close to a coin flip in either direction.
Russia was influencing and trying to manipulate the 2016 election. This has been proven. Do you disagree?
You can have a market that is intended to not have political affiliation thats current pool of investors still leans in 1 political direction this isn't difficult. Every single election since 2000 that I have followed, the IEM has leaned democratic. I made a $200 bucks in 2004 because of it. You have to at least acknowledge it. also that there are very few shares traded on a daily basis.
Please provide the quote from her book that says the election was stolen.
So she conceded and never claimed that the election was stolen as Trump has. She pointed out the Russian influence and manipulation attempts likely affected the outcome, which is true.
econedlink.org
No, you're wrong.
You know what, Trump couldn't even meet that hurdle. You do realize that is what you are arguing. We are talking about Trump not Clinton. Or are you stating Trumps actions were ok?
I prefer to look at the WTA markets than the voter share. In 2004 on the night of the election, I was able to purchase Bush shares for 10 cents and sell Gore for 90 cents. I started with $10, ended with over $200. In 2016, even the night of the election, You could sell Clinton shares for 80 cents and and purchase Trump for less than 20 cents. Since those are the only 2 elections where a republican has one, it is easiest to show the tilt there. It matches with the current year WTA between Trump and Harris.Again: the data I've seen on it shows it's most closely matched the outcomes, outperforming most polls.
If you have past data that states otherwise, post it.
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www.sciencedirect.comEconEdLink - Can Election Futures Markets be More Accurate than Polls?
The students examine results from opinion polls conducted near the end of the 2012 presidential campaign. They compare results from several national polls to those of the Iowa Electronic Markets (hereafter, the IEM), an online futures market, to predict the outcome of the 2012 race. They read...
Oligarchs read these, and decided to "make" their own "markets" because they saw the IEM as having significantly better legitimacy over the polls (which they also manipulate). So, they created markets that can be manipulated by Big Money.
That's all you're seeing w/ Polymarket et al here.
Bullshit, Thats not what was discussed. We talked about conceding. Your political bias is showing. And then he took it 20 steps farther than any other candidate. Knowing he had lost and still stating he had won. As to the FBI, had that been with Trump what do you think he would have said, think he would have complained about undue election interference? That affected the election for Clinton clearly.
yes it is concerning and the reasons for being concerned are legit but the very fact that millions (apparently 50% of population) have bought into this shows imo that they haven't been fooled into going in that direction as much as compelled by their circumstances. which in turn is equally shocking that the other side has done nothing to placate or address the concerns of 50%. sure they have begun to pay lip service in the last month but who's going to take that seriously at this stage? my point is that the strategy of expecting victory while callously doing the opposite of what 50% expect and rely completely on antipathy for trump is under serious test.
Ask your friends why they brought their both sides whataboutism into the thread.
iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu
It has the EC vote at around 51.7 to 48.3. Basically a coin flip. Thought I saw 538 at 53 to 47. Again near a coin flip.Can't you only bet the popluar vote on the IEM? I don't see where you can bet on who actually wins the election. It would make sense that Harris is this much of a favorite.
2024 U.S. Presidential Election Markets | Iowa Electronic Markets
Ah, that makes sense. Either way going to be a shit show next week, month, year etc.
I'll steelman your position
polymarket.com
