MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... MODELS SUGGEST A STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE
REGION AROUND THE TUE/WED TIMEFRAME. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
ON THIS SYSTEM AS ECM...
GFS AND GEM SHOW SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN
VARIANCE ON
STRENGTH AND TRACK ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE ALL APPEAR TO HAVE TRENDED A BIT MORE
NORTHERLY WITH TRACK. COLDER AIR SPILLING SOUTH WITH CANADIAN HIGH WOULD
SERVE TO ENHANCE THE LOW TO MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE... WHICH ALONG WITH
COUPLED UPPER
JET STRUCTURE SUGGESTED BY
GFS AND ECM WOULD LEND SUPPORT
FOR STRENGTHENING SYSTEM AS IT SHIFTS FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TUE-WED. HAVING SAID THAT OPERATIONAL
GFS IS MUCH STRONGER THAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN
WHICH DEPICTS WEAKER OPEN WAVE. STRENGTH OF SYSTEM WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON
PRECIP AMOUNTS AS STRONGER SYSTEM WOULD YIELD STRONGER SOUTHERLY
FLOW FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO LEADING TO PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE. ALSO IMPACTED BY STRENGTH WILL
BE STORM TRACK AND ULTIMATELY PRECIP TYPE... WHICH COULD BE EITHER RAIN OR SNOW
AND CANT EVEN RULE OUT
ISOLD THUNDER DEPENDING ON THE TRACK.
THE MAIN TAKEAWAY IS WE CONTINUE TO
WATCH THE POSSIBILITY FOR A STORM SYSTEM
TO IMPACT THE MIDWEST IN TUE-WED TIMEFRAME WITH EITHER RAIN OR SNOW.
HOWEVER... BECAUSE OF THE LARGE MODEL RUN TO RUN
VARIANCE SPECIFIC DETAILS AND
IMPACTS ARE UNCERTAIN AND TOO DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE ATTIM... BUT AGAIN THE
TUE-WED TIMEFRAME WILL BE THE PERIOD TO
WATCH IN THE COMING DAYS. OTHERWISE...
DUE TO THE MODEL VARIANCES WITH SYSTEM HAVE CAPPED THE
POPS IN CHANCE FOR TUE-TUE
NGT.