Projected Minutes

[BirdistheWord]

Here is one man's projections.

Luka Garza
10
Jack Nunge
14
Tyler Cook
23
Jordan Bohannon
33
Cordell Pemsl
19
Nicholas Baer
20
Isaiah Moss
22
Ahmad Wagner
13
Brady Ellingson
12
Dom Uhl
6
Ryan Kriener
15
Christian Williams
5
Maishe Dailey
7
Other
1

 

[mazda1]

A little more for Luka and Cook, a little less for Maishe and Wagner is my guess.

Early on the minutes will likely be skewed a bit as bench players will get a chance to earn minutes.

Once we get to league play I think you're on the right track, but until we get to see the freshman perform at the college level it's a crap shoot in the front court. I generally agree they will be a substantial factor as the year wears on.

 

[IowaNiceHawk]

Baer will get closer to 25, imho.
And so will Tyler Cook and Cordell Pemsl

GO HAWKS

 

[DutchyFunStar]

Minutes are going to be at a premium. Lots of bodies especially in the front court.

1) J Bo, CW, Daily
2) Moss, Elly, McCaff
3) Behr, Uhl, Nunge
4) Cook, Wags, Pemsil
5) Kreiner, Garza

 

[Suterman]

Minutes are going to be at a premium. Lots of bodies especially in the front court.

1) J Bo, CW, Daily
2) Moss, Elly, McCaff
3) Behr, Uhl, Nunge
4) Cook, Wags, Pemsil
5) Kreiner, Garza

McCaffery is redshirting this year so 0 minutes for him.

 

[87alum87]

This is not how I predict it to be, just what I would do as arm chair coach.

1. Bohannon - 24, Williams -12, Ellingson 4
2. Moss - 24, Baer,- 10, Ellingson - 6
3. Baer - 14, Nunge - 14, Wagner - 12
4. Cook - 24, Pemsl - 10, Nunge - 6
5. Garza - 18, Kreiner -12, Pemsl - 10

Minutes by player:

Bohannon 24
Moss 24
Cook 24
Baer 24
Pemsl 20
Nunge 20
Garza 18
Wagner 12
Kreiner 12
Williams 12
Ellingson 10

Spot minutes

Dailey, more time if a guard is injured or ineffective (Williams or Ellingson)
Uhl, more time if a forward is injured or ineffective (Wagner)

 

[HoustonREDHawk]

I only hope that we can limit JBo and any others to about 25 mpg, so they go all out and don't wear down. Should be interesting to see which combinations work best.

 

[91hawki]

I think it will be interesting to see Pemsl's minutes.

Kreiner and Garza are going to see a lot of minutes at the C position.

Then PF is really crowded with Cook, Uhl, Pemsl, Wagner, Nunge and possibly Baer.

Depending on his health, I wonder if Fran considers him for a RS.

 

[ChiHawk21]

Don't see Ellington getting double digits. It's make or break for Uhl. I have a sense that he will either have a strong season and play 20-25 or completely flat out and see 5-7.

 

[DanL53]

All for fun of course.

Kriener and Garza at center. I don't care who I start and expect each to average about 20 mpg which is just about right considering I expect fouls problems to be an issue for a while. I like that each can expand the offense and cause their defender to have to follow them out to the three point line. Readers will notice a lot of single position players among our underclassmen as for now I want them to learn as much about their roles as possible.

Cook and Pemsl at power forward. I suspect Cook will get from 22-25 mpg and Pemsl the rest. I can't wait to see what they can do when isolated one on one in the paint.

Baer and Nunge will get the three spot. We'll zone most of the game anyway on defense. I suppose Baer is looking at 25-28 minutes per game, or less...I want him doing his thing without wearing out. Nunge backing him up.

Wagner and Uhl will get their chances at any of the three positions mentioned due to injuries, foul trouble, and certainly in the non-conference when certain games will allow for them to see action. It's not so important how many minutes they play, but when. Don't expect either to play every game.

Moss starts at wing guard and I'll try to get close to 25 mpg out of him. He is the key between a top half finish in the Big Ten and fighting for a Championship. BIG consideration here, will we play Michigan State once or twice? Either could happen, and one gives us a huge break. Ellingson will get the other fifteen minutes.

Bohannon can handle up to 30 mpg just fine at point guard. That is still light duty for a starter in the Big Ten! His backup is wide open between Ellingson and Williams. We'll see.

And Dailey has the interesting task of earning minutes anywhere from the one to the three depending on his development and matchups.

Offensively it is all about the fast break when we can get it and a motion offense that'll run wings off of screens, pull our post guys out to isolate our power forwards and sometimes our wing forwards. I've got four guys on the court almost all the time that can put down a three. But I think we can get that whenever we want, we'll look inside on every possession first.

Defensively I've got matchup zones going on, from the 1-3-1 to the 3-2 to the 2-3, and occasionally a man to man to mix things up. I will run the 3/4's court press quite often and the half court trap.

That's for this moment. I'm certain Fran will have some interesting wrinkles. I want to see what he will do with the depth as much as anyone else does. And, somewhere in this mix I'm seeing the opportunity to draw fouls very well! And we can talk about hitting foul shots, but think of this, quite often both Pemsl and Cook go to the line for the "and one". Uhl and Wagner...not so much. Big difference before we even think about free throw percentages.

 

[seer_hawk]

Unless Fran goes almost exclusively with a Big at the 3, I think Ellingson will get at least 16-18 minutes per game, with Moss playing some 3. He might even see starter minutes. The biggest questions for me are: Will Williams make an impact at the 1 or 3, and will Nunge be an effective 3?

If Ellingson moves ahead of Williams he will likely get starter minutes at the 1 and 2, even if Moss doesn't play a lot of 3.

 

[lovedwatchingLester]

All for fun of course.

Kriener and Garza at center. I don't care who I start and expect each to average about 20 mpg which is just about right considering I expect fouls problems to be an issue for a while. I like that each can expand the offense and cause their defender to have to follow them out to the three point line. Readers will notice a lot of single position players among our underclassmen as for now I want them to learn as much about their roles as possible.

Cook and Pemsl at power forward. I suspect Cook will get from 22-25 mpg and Pemsl the rest. I can't wait to see what they can do when isolated one on one in the paint.

Baer and Nunge will get the three spot. We'll zone most of the game anyway on defense. I suppose Baer is looking at 25-28 minutes per game, or less...I want him doing his thing without wearing out. Nunge backing him up.

Wagner and Uhl will get their chances at any of the three positions mentioned due to injuries, foul trouble, and certainly in the non-conference when certain games will allow for them to see action. It's not so important how many minutes they play, but when. Don't expect either to play every game.

Moss starts at wing guard and I'll try to get close to 25 mpg out of him. He is the key between a top half finish in the Big Ten and fighting for a Championship. BIG consideration here, will we play Michigan State once or twice? Either could happen, and one gives us a huge break. Ellingson will get the other fifteen minutes.

Bohannon can handle up to 30 mpg just fine at point guard. That is still light duty for a starter in the Big Ten! His backup is wide open between Ellingson and Williams. We'll see.

And Dailey has the interesting task of earning minutes anywhere from the one to the three depending on his development and matchups.

Offensively it is all about the fast break when we can get it and a motion offense that'll run wings off of screens, pull our post guys out to isolate our power forwards and sometimes our wing forwards. I've got four guys on the court almost all the time that can put down a three. But I think we can get that whenever we want, we'll look inside on every possession first.

Defensively I've got matchup zones going on, from the 1-3-1 to the 3-2 to the 2-3, and occasionally a man to man to mix things up. I will run the 3/4's court press quite often and the half court trap.

That's for this moment. I'm certain Fran will have some interesting wrinkles. I want to see what he will do with the depth as much as anyone else does. And, somewhere in this mix I'm seeing the opportunity to draw fouls very well! And we can talk about hitting foul shots, but think of this, quite often both Pemsl and Cook go to the line for the "and one". Uhl and Wagner...not so much. Big difference before we even think about free throw percentages.

Seems like as good an analysis as any Dan. I suspect that much of what you've written has gone through the coaches minds. Now what I always love about this time of year is that as the season starts to unfold, especially this year with what appears is a full competent roster, and a European trip upcoming is the surprises. Which players seize the opportunity and force a change in coaches thinking due to their drive to be better than anybody thinks they can be. Who will be that player this year? I think there are lots of candidates, Wagner, Uhl, Williams, Ellingson, or Dailey could be that guy. Maybe a preferred walk on shows lots more than anyone ever considered. Oh this year should be even more fun than the last several. The possibilities seem greater than the past several season's to me. Very excited.

 

[twindman]

I think Pemsl minutes will go down unless his injury recovery makes a difference. He couldn't get above the rim for rebounds or dunks last year. Also, if you can't shoot more than 60% from the line, that is also a detriment. Of course this assumes that Kreiner and Garza see at least a total of 20 minutes a game.

 

[mazda1]

I would expect Pemsil to get some minutes at the 5 when Cook is not at the 4. Maybe 15 Garza, 15 Kriener, and 10 Cordell.

Then if you have 27 or so for Cook at the 4, maybe 8 or so for Cordell, and Wagner for 5.

At the three it's really up in the air. If Baer can defend quicker three's he's at about 24 minutes, maybe Nunge if he can defend gets 12 or so, and 4 for Uhl. Hopefully Wagner can fight for some minutes here too. If we have to go small at the 3 we have real issues finding minutes for these guys.

I see Moss at the two for 24 or so, Ellingson for 10, and maybe 6 for Maishe and Williams.

J Bo at close to 30 at the point, with Williams/Ellingson getting the rest.

This doesn't give much time to Uhl, Maishe, or Wagner. If they can't play their way into more minutes the last two may consider moving on when the season ends. It's possible others aren't satisfied at well. I'd guess we'll be able to have a scholly for Conner (if he wants it), Joe, and maybe one more. A point would be ideal, but our chemistry is so good I'd hate to mess up the mojo too much. It's possible we might lose an inside guy who just wants a bigger role too, especially if our bigs can't play the three. I hope not, but damn the front court is crowded with talent. The cream will rise to the top, but it might be an ugly process.

 

[BirdistheWord]

Don't see Ellington getting double digits. It's make or break for Uhl. I have a sense that he will either have a strong season and play 20-25 or completely flat out and see 5-7.

Yes, fair point....my reasoning was that:
1. Look at his minutes last year, more than you would have guessed
2. I like Moss but.....he has proven to be very inconsistent....So I guarantee there will be some games where B-E gets 20+ minutes
3. If we fall behind, Fran will have to go with some extra shooters
4. He generally does not turn the ball over and is a decent defender/experienced

 

[BirdistheWord]

I would expect Pemsil to get some minutes at the 5 when Cook is not at the 4. Maybe 15 Garza, 15 Kriener, and 10 Cordell.

Then if you have 27 or so for Cook at the 4, maybe 8 or so for Cordell, and Wagner for 5.

At the three it's really up in the air. If Baer can defend quicker three's he's at about 24 minutes, maybe Nunge if he can defend gets 12 or so, and 4 for Uhl. Hopefully Wagner can fight for some minutes here too. If we have to go small at the 3 we have real issues finding minutes for these guys.

I see Moss at the two for 24 or so, Ellingson for 10, and maybe 6 for Maishe and Williams.

J Bo at close to 30 at the point, with Williams/Ellingson getting the rest.

This doesn't give much time to Uhl, Maishe, or Wagner. If they can't play their way into more minutes the last two may consider moving on when the season ends. It's possible others aren't satisfied at well. I'd guess we'll be able to have a scholly for Conner (if he wants it), Joe, and maybe one more. A point would be ideal, but our chemistry is so good I'd hate to mess up the mojo too much. It's possible we might lose an inside guy who just wants a bigger role too, especially if our bigs can't play the three. I hope not, but damn the front court is crowded with talent. The cream will rise to the top, but it might be an ugly process.

I predict Wagner easily plays double digit minutes. His strength, hustle and defense plus expereince are invaluable.

 

[DanL53]

Yes, fair point....my reasoning was that:
1. Look at his minutes last year, more than you would have guessed
2. I like Moss but.....he has proven to be very inconsistent....So I guarantee there will be some games where B-E gets 20+ minutes
3. If we fall behind, Fran will have to go with some extra shooters
4. He generally does not turn the ball over and is a decent defender/experienced

Not trying to start something, but a redshirt sophomore Moss has not been proven to be very inconsistent.

 

[BirdistheWord]

Not trying to start something, but a redshirt sophomore Moss has not been proven to be very inconsistent.

Sorry, but I watched 90% of our games last year and there were many games where he (Redshirt Freshman) flat out disappeared. Not a couple of games, quite a few. That is what I mean when I say inconsistent.

 

[DanL53]

Sorry, but I watched 90% of our games last year and there were many games where he (Redshirt Freshman) flat out disappeared. Not a couple of games, quite a few. That is what I mean when I say inconsistent.

Yes, I agree he WAS inconsistent. We can disagree on the next three years but I don't believe it's proven he will be inconsistent.

 

[hawk-i bob]

Sorry, but I watched 90% of our games last year and there were many games where he (Redshirt Freshman) flat out disappeared. Not a couple of games, quite a few. That is what I mean when I say inconsistent.

when you have one of the greatest offensive weapons (shooters) in Iowa history in PJ

when you have an All-B1G Freshman point guard that I dont think there is an argument could shoot lights out from 3 in JBo

you are going to have some off games from a scoring standpoint...its not like Moss was the #1 option. Match ups also differ from one opponent to another.

...I wouldnt exactly call it flat out disappearing. Freshman do have some off nights. I know this much...we dont beat our in-state rival without Isaiah Moss..

There were some games that he disappeared on the bench which I believe was more related to defense and/or what some of his teammates were doing...but then there were some games he played more minutes because of what he was doing...and what his teammates were not doing.

I agree...a more consistent Moss will be helpful. I would suspect he will have that opportunity in that PJ is gone.

 

[HoustonREDHawk]

I predict Wagner easily plays double digit minutes. His strength, hustle and defense plus expereince are invaluable.

I agree that Wagner is going to consistently get 10-15 mpg, unlike most seem to be predicting. There are two ends of the court, and Wagner is probably our second best hustle, defensive player. He is fast enough to guard the 3 or 4, which could be especially helpful if Fran wants Nunge playing minutes at the 3 (on offense). I would like to see Wagner get some pick & roll plays on offense.

 

[Hawksfor3]

Here is one man's projections. I was thinking perhaps Brady's minutes would be higher.

 

[DanL53]

I agree that Wagner is going to consistently get 10-15 mpg, unlike most seem to be predicting. There are two ends of the court, and Wagner is probably our second best hustle, defensive player. He is fast enough to guard the 3 or 4, which could be especially helpful if Fran wants Nunge playing minutes at the 3 (on offense). I would like to see Wagner get some pick & roll plays on offense.

I'll take that deal if he starts making shots and hits at least 65% of his free throws. And I love his hustle and team play. And I don't care if he scores even 4 ppg. I just don't want wasted possessions. But it is true, if we think we're going to play man to man at times the time to do it is with Wagner on the court.

 

[Hawksfor3]

I was thinking perhaps that Brady's minutes would be higher, and if so, then Fran sees something great there.

 

[BirdistheWord]

Yes, I agree he WAS inconsistent. We can disagree on the next three years but I don't believe it's proven he will be inconsistent.

Fair enough, I hope you are right.

 

[BirdistheWord]

when you have one of the greatest offensive weapons (shooters) in Iowa history in PJ

when you have an All-B1G Freshman point guard that I dont think there is an argument could shoot lights out from 3 in JBo

you are going to have some off games from a scoring standpoint...its not like Moss was the #1 option. Match ups also differ from one opponent to another.

...I wouldnt exactly call it flat out disappearing. Freshman do have some off nights. I know this much...we dont beat our in-state rival without Isaiah Moss..

There were some games that he disappeared on the bench which I believe was more related to defense and/or what some of his teammates were doing...but then there were some games he played more minutes because of what he was doing...and what his teammates were not doing.

I agree...a more consistent Moss will be helpful. I would suspect he will have that opportunity in that PJ is gone.

First of all, I think he has tons of potential. And you absolutely can cherry pick some excellent games. And yes, he was a redshirt freshman last year. All that being said, I still believe he disappeared in a lot of games. I will agree that in some cases he was pulled from games and may not have been given the opportunity to get back in. Bottom line he was 9th in FG% (yes, lots lof 3's) and 6th in points. He will have an amazing opportunity this year as there is not much competition at the 2G.

 

[lonewolf52]

IMHO a HUGE consideration for minutes will be rebounding. There's little doubt that our guys can score, but what killed our defense last year was our ininability to get the ball off the glass and get rolling into our fast paced offense. We are really athletic and don't want half court games; we need to get the ball on the rebound, hit the outlet and at least get a look at the basket in the first 10-15 seconds to put pressure on the opposing defense. But it all starts with rebounding. Some of these guys are good players but need a lot of work on rebounding (and I'm talking about guards too).

 

[mazda1]

When Cook finally started to get a few defensive boards I liked our chances of winning better. One encouraging thing from the PTL comments that have been posted is both Garza and Nunge have shown a desire to get the ball off the glass.

 

[hawk-i bob]

First of all, I think he has tons of potential. And you absolutely can cherry pick some excellent games. And yes, he was a redshirt freshman last year. All that being said, I still believe he disappeared in a lot of games. I will agree that in some cases he was pulled from games and may not have been given the opportunity to get back in. Bottom line he was 9th in FG% (yes, lots lof 3's) and 6th in points. He will have an amazing opportunity this year as there is not much competition at the 2G.

as stats can be cherry picked.
FG%/3%
Jok 43/38
JBo 39/42
Moss 41/36
I dont see a whole lot of difference.

in 18 B1G games he only played 20+ min.. 4 times.
there were 5 B1G games he played less then 15 minutes.
there were 2 B1G games where he played 6 & 5 minutes.

from a scoring standpoint its hard to be consistent when the minutes are not & you have the B1G's leading scorer on the same team.

as with just about everybody else..better D should be priority one.

 

[kceasthawk]

Seems like as good an analysis as any Dan. I suspect that much of what you've written has gone through the coaches minds. Now what I always love about this time of year is that as the season starts to unfold, especially this year with what appears is a full competent roster, and a European trip upcoming is the surprises. Which players seize the opportunity and force a change in coaches thinking due to their drive to be better than anybody thinks they can be. Who will be that player this year? I think there are lots of candidates, Wagner, Uhl, Williams, Ellingson, or Dailey could be that guy. Maybe a preferred walk on shows lots more than anyone ever considered. Oh this year should be even more fun than the last several. The possibilities seem greater than the past several season's to me. Very excited.

Just a comment about the walk on statement. What happened with Baer was an anomoly for a top 25 level team. Right guy, right place, right time. Could it happen again with say Riley Till. Nothings impossible, but extremely unlikely. With the current roster and additions coming it will be hard to get meaning full floor time for some pretty good players, as well as old vets like UHL, and Wagner. Till and his cohorts will be valuable team members on the practice squad, but it would take a major (bad), situation for walks on to play meaningful time in non blowouts. As it should be.

 

[seer_hawk]

as stats can be cherry picked.
FG%/3%
Jok 43/38
JBo 39/42
Moss 41/36
I dont see a whole lot of difference.

in 18 B1G games he only played 20+ min.. 4 times.
there were 5 B1G games he played less then 15 minutes.
there were 2 B1G games where he played 6 & 5 minutes.

from a scoring standpoint its hard to be consistent when the minutes are not & you have the B1G's leading scorer on the same team.

as with just about everybody else..better D should be priority one.

The biggest difference between Jok, Bohannon, and Moss was volume of shots. Isaiah took 1/3 less shots than Jordan, and less than half of Pete's. Hopefully as Isaiah's minutes go up he'll be a more consistent offensively and defensively. IMO he has the tools to be a standout on both ends of the court.

 

[HoustonREDHawk]

The biggest difference between Jok, Bohannon, and Moss was volume of shots. Isaiah took 1/3 less shots than Jordan, and less than half of Pete's. Hopefully as Isaiah's minutes go up he'll be a more consistent offensively and defensively. IMO he has the tools to be a standout on both ends of the court.

I agree with this. I think JBo performed much closer to his peak than Moss. Moss is one of the players who could break out over the next couple of years. I especially want to see him understand when to drive or shoot, and develop into a plus defender.

 

[HeRKeYHoPeFuL]

Based on last year and what we've seen/heard from off season work...

1 - Bohannon: 30; Williams: 8; Ellingson: 2
2 - Moss: 24; Ellingson: 14; Williams: 2
3 - Baer: 25; Dailey: 6; Uhl: 5; Nunge: 4
4 - Cook: 16; Pemsl: 12; Wagner: 6; Uhl: 4; Nunge: 2
5 - Kriener: 14; Garza: 12; Cook: 4; Pemsl: 4; Uhl: 3; Wagner: 3

Totals:
Bohannon: 30
Baer: 25 (This should be higher based on talent, but his energy level will cap his minutes)
Moss: 24
Cook: 20 (Candidate for more if he improves his post defense)
Pemsl: 16
Ellingson: 16 (Candidate for less)
Kriener: 14
Uhl: 12 (Candidate for less, although Fran has given seniors some decent mileage)
Garza: 12 (Candidate for less - mostly due to inexperience)
Williams: 10
Wagner: 9
Dailey: 6
Nunge: 6 (Defense likely holds him back)

I expect that we'll see some lineups with Ellingson and Wagner in the game and we try to play man to man at that point (Perhaps Bohannon, Moss, Ellingson, Wagner, Kriener), and with the freshmen in we'll likely play more zone to protect them (and likely Cook) from foul trouble.

Defensively, I see some really important factors... how many deflections can Baer/Uhl get at the top of the 3/4 court. How many "interceptions" can our back line players get when the other team is trapped and frantic. This will be a solid year to use our defensive schemes to limit our half court defense time (last year was too with so many freshmen playing).

Offensively, I think we'll see a wide range of looks ranging from sharpshooting (Bohannon, Ellingson, Moss, Baer, Kriener) to "Pack the Paint" with 3 F/C players looking to clean up the offensive glass and everything in between to provide open space for our post players and open shots off kick outs when the defense adjusts.

Our weakness will likely seem to be our late clock execution, IMO (this is probably a broken record) as I don't see anyone that can consistently drive past a defender from the perimeter. However, perhaps our late clock play becomes a Bohannon 3 with players crashing the glass.

I'm amazed at how we seem to be getting deeper each year, with players really bringing together some complimentary skill sets that give Fran quite a few (and challenging) mix-and-match options.

 

[mtdew_fever]

To think Fran will continue to regularly play 13 players while having success isnt likely.

At some point the top 8-9 players will need to separate themselves.

Very few top 25 teams play over 10 in their regular rotation in games that are close.