Pull The Shirts Win The Title

[Omahahawk86]

Bo Ni

I feel the same way about BoJo & Bo Nickal. Without him, I could totally see Meyer & Nickal in the finals.

And the answer to Fleming's question above about why BoJo might move down to 165 is clearly: an improved team score. Myles Martin has successfully made 174 weight in opens all season so far. He won the ESU Open over some D1 & some non-D1 comp, dropped a decent decision to CMU's Mike Ottinger in the MSU Open finals (4-3) and last weekend mauled all non-D1 comp to win the Findlay (OH) Open. All at 174. Ottinger's a Top-10 SR, R12 or better kinda dude this year. If Martin's trajectory is at or higher than that, then a BoJo + Martin 165/174 combo scores a few more points at MSG than a Kresevic + BoJo one. If you concede BoJo a title at 174, but only a finalist at 165, you've got the 4pts lost in the finals, however many fewer Bonus Points he might get at 174 vs 165 (I'm seeing it about even, really, although I'm very curious about both Meyer & Nickal vs him), Ryan's in the business of evaluating Myles Martin to see if he can:
a. Make up the lost 4pts from D-ringer over BoJo and;
b. Add more to that than Kresevic's best case scenario (2-2? 1.5 to 3pts?)
Maybe it's not worth it, but he's got plenty of time to determine it.

Brutus is a very compelling challenger to Iowa, PSU and OkSt. In addition to NaTo & BoJo guaranteed to score big, Coach Tom's Jake Ryan to 157 & Micah Jordan to 141 moves appear to be working out. Depending on your taeks about the relative healing powers of surgically repaired elbows, they could still bring in a possible/probable semifinalist in January. They've already committed to Mark Martin over Kollin Moore at 197 and they've got a decent heavy fending off stiff competition in the room. Add in the always mercurial JDJ & Kenny Courts and brutus could be a real force at MSG.

Bo Nickal looked scary good vs. Epperly(who I thought could win this weight). Remember, he was a super stud that is like 5-0 vs. the almighty Mark Hall.

Jordan going down to 65 and inserting Martin definitely give them more team points. 174 isn't all that tough. I could see Martin as a 5-8. As it sits now they will get little to no points at 165.

Mikey Jordan has been absolutely killing everyone. I know it's vs. True Freshman but he tech falled Hayes in the wrestle off. He will be in the mix in March.

Hunter Steiber? Who knows? He's kind of like our Grothus. It sounds like he could be out until mid January.

Brooks is someone we need points from. I think he could get 2nd here. Last year that loss to Boyd killed him for seeding at NCAA's and he had Dean in the quarters. Most of the really tough guys at this weight are not in the big ten. It's important for him to beat Dudley this year in conference and to have a good midlands(I think Stauffer az state will be there).

I think it's a three team race between Tosu, Iowa, and Penn State. I don't think OSU has the horses unless Smith and Brock both get their redshirts pulled and they both AA.

 

[wasdt21]

it is still November, to many ifs and what ifs to be sure of anything.

 

[Omahahawk86]

it is still November, to many ifs and what ifs to be sure of anything.

Absolutely...but it's fun huh?

 

[wasdt21]

heck just going over all possibilities at 141 is mind boggeling, but yes it is fun.

 

[Herkuleez5]

Well from a Midlands standpoint for Brooks if I am not mistaken wont there be more competition than Stauffer if ASU is there. I think Dechow from OD, Avery from Edinboro, and Zillmer from SDSU should all be there unless I missed something. Also is Lehigh there as well? If so Brown will be there. This would be a major tournament win for Sammy if they are all there!

 

[jtothemfp]

Well from a Midlands standpoint for Brooks if I am not mistaken wont there be more competition than Stauffer if ASU is there. I think Dechow from OD, Avery from Edinboro, and Zillmer from SDSU should all be there unless I missed something. Also is Lehigh there as well? If so Brown will be there. This would be a major tournament win for Sammy if they are all there!

I don't have a Midlands list at the ready, but both Edinboro & Lehigh are booked for the Scuffle, but Old Dominion, ASU & SDSU are not.

 

[Herkuleez5]

I don't have a Midlands list at the ready, but both Edinboro & Lehigh are booked for the Scuffle, but Old Dominion, ASU & SDSU are not.

Thanks for the info, I was not aware of Edinboro and Lehigh to the SS. Regardless if Stauffer, Dechow, and Zillmer are at Midlands that's still a big tournament win.

 

[fleming24]

Wow, ok. For fun, I'll look at each of those assertions:

1-No Bryan Snyder
- While I suppose it's still possible for Kyle Snyder to abandon his OlyRS & compete this March, in projecting a current team's possible points, I never give any debate points to naming wrestlers who aren't competing that year. May as well list 'No J Jaggers' as your number 1.

2-No mortal lock like a "Logan Stieber"
- Conceded, for a title. But NaTo & BoJo are very, very strong candidates for the finals.

3-Lack bonus points firepower. Too many guys content on winning one-point matches
- NaTo last year: 34-4 with an 89.5% Bonus Win Percentage, including 3 out of 5 at nationals
- BoJo last year: 21-2 with a 91.3% Bonus %, including 3 out of 5 at nationals
- Micah's a bonus machine early this year; seems unaffected by the cut
- Tavanello had two pins at nationals two years ago when he was healthy
- Conceded on JDJ, Ryan, Kresevic, Courts & Hunter's current backup

4-Too many holes lacking NCAA tournament exposure, 141, 157, HWT
- We probably disagree on how important prior nationals experience is. Probably a broken record at this point, but NaTo & BoJo had none heading into St. Louis. Nor did Gilman or Sorenson. Freshmen ball out at nationals all the time, especially ones with deep pedigrees and a redshirt year.
- Micah looks Top-4 to me in a wide, wide-open 141 class. He'll be right up there with other newcomers like McKenna, Nolf & Nickal.
- I'll concede a possible hole at 157, cuz I can't tell yet what they've got in Jake Ryan,
- Jimmy Lawson busted Tavanello last year, so his 0-2 finish was unsurprising, but the year prior, he went 5-1 with two Falls after losing in R1 to finish R12. With a weakish 285 class around the back end of the podium this year, I don't consider him a hole at all. Fully capable of finishing AA in that weight class at MSG

5-Kenny Courts won't have the dream-filled tournament he had a season ago.
- Concur. That McCutcheon let him back into that Qtrs match he was controlling was such a bummer. Yeah, no way dude navigates that 184 field again this year.

6-And a serious health question at 149
- Concur, it's a question. Surgically repaired elbows are easier to return from than repaired labrums, tho. And if the answer is Healthy, Hunter's every bit in the top tier with Sorenson, zPain & Tshirt.

I agree with you on JDJ, but the back end of 197's podium is underwhelming as well and I haven't yet seen the Heflinized Mark Martin. But overall, damn man, even with that awful tourney you're projecting Brutus to have, who beyond Iowa, PSU & OkSt has a chance to score better than they? Va Tech would have to wrestle out of their minds, but maybe? Michigan needs Zac Hall instead of Fisher, Murphy & Mahomes to be healthy and a yanking the RS off Logan Massa to come close. Cornell? On the strength of 3 balls-out Champs and a Duke Pickett?

Nah, Brutus won't falter enough to drop out of the Top-5. And I think they're far more likely to place ahead of a troubled (at 133, 157, 184 & 197) Oklahoma State.

Outstanding post. I respect you going to the stat board with your percentages. But those are just that---stats.
I mis-typed Bryan for Kyle Snyder---you got me there.
However, I'll stand by all the other original statements I made in that post.
And certainly Micah Jordan can be dangerous in an unproven weight class, however I don't foresee him threatening to a top 4 finish. Iowa's Brody Grothus could win the whole thing for that matter.
Had Hunter Stieber been able to stay healthy, then I would definitely agree with your assessment, however the long layoff, I believe, will to be too difficult to overcome.
And for tOSU's Hwt. Tavanello, he'll struggle to get to the round of 12's.
Nevertheless, this is a forum, and its purpose is to let one provide their opinion. And although I don't agree with some of your content, I RESPECT IT and enjoy your posts.

 

[Omahahawk86]

Thanks for the info, I was not aware of Edinboro and Lehigh to the SS. Regardless if Stauffer, Dechow, and Zillmer are at Midlands that's still a big tournament win.

Looks like Nebraska(Dudley)is there too. Throw in Downey and that's a heck of a bracket. Sammy needs to wrestle well so we don't run into the same problem as last year. I'm fully confident if he's on his game he can win that bracket.

 

[andegre]

Here's the current Midlands participant list...

Maybe in the future, I'll come up with an individual participants page for each weight of the tournament...

http://www.wrestlestats.com/schedule/tournamentparticipants?eventId=4311

Wow, that's 34 schools participating. And lots of schools you guys mentioned above about possible good 184 matchups...seeding will be a big deal here.

 

[AFHawk86]

So Iowa and Nebraska are the only top 10 teams participating? Hopefully some good matches though.

 

[Herkuleez5]

Here's the current Midlands participant list...

Maybe in the future, I'll come up with an individual participants page for each weight of the tournament...

http://www.wrestlestats.com/schedule/tournamentparticipants?eventId=4311

Wow, that's 34 schools participating. And lots of schools you guys mentioned above about possible good 184 matchups...seeding will be a big deal here.

If that's the case realistically Brooks could get seeded 6th based on current rankings. Stauffer, Dudley, and Ayala up top and Zillmer, Dechow, and Brooks on the bottom. If it pans out that way he will get Dechow in the quarters. Dechow is one helluva an athlete but is a boring no offense type wrestler, Sammy needs to push the pace against him and he will be fine.

 

[sloehawk]

If that's the case realistically Brooks could get seeded 6th based on current rankings. Stauffer, Dudley, and Ayala up top and Zillmer, Dechow, and Brooks on the bottom. If it pans out that way he will get Dechow in the quarters. Dechow is one helluva an athlete but is a boring no offense type wrestler, Sammy needs to push the pace against him and he will be fine.

You're probably aware, but just in case, Dechow took Brooks out 7-6 at Midlands last year. Brooks beat Zilmer at Midlands last year 3-1.

And to AFHawk - NC State is at Midlands and ranked 5th.

 

[grappler6]

If you believe this you've been terribly misinformed... Again.

What about my post is incorrect? A big reason why Sam ruled out MN was due to Kroells already being there. I did not mean that as a slight to all the things he liked about Iowa. I was speaking specifically about his decision with MN.

The wins over Stoll and Kroells weight gain are tangible data so I assume those aren't your issue

Again? Apparently I have a track record.

 

[Gobblin]

What about my post is incorrect? A big reason why Sam ruled out MN was due to Kroells already being there. I did not mean that as a slight to all the things he liked about Iowa. I was speaking specifically about his decision with MN.

The wins over Stoll and Kroells weight gain are tangible data so I assume those aren't your issue

Again? Apparently I have a track record.

Where or what Kroells was doing had about 0% affect on Stolls decision on where he was going to attend school. Minnesota could've offered him a full ride and 100 pieces of prime real estate and it wouldn't have mattered. Sam was going to be a Hawkeye.

 

[Herkuleez5]

You're probably aware, but just in case, Dechow took Brooks out 7-6 at Midlands last year. Brooks beat Zilmer at Midlands last year 3-1.

And to AFHawk - NC State is at Midlands and ranked 5th.

Yes I was aware of his loss to Dechow last year and that is why I stated that he had to push the pace because once Dechow got the lead last year in the 3rd he ran out of bounds multiple times. I think Sammy will be just fine.

 

[The Vak]

I don't think Iowa has the horses right now to win the title. 141, 157, 165 and HW are still humongous question marks. It's hard to just pencil Grothus in for a big NCAA tournament when: 1. He's never placed at the NCAA tournament, 2. He's recovering from an injury and 3. He's trying to cut to a weight he's never been at. Sorry, those are just the facts.

157 looks like our best case scenario is NCAA qualifier, but that's no sure thing. 165 the same thing but even less likely. HW we have reason for optimism, but Stoll has to actually beat some top guys before we start putting him in the AA conversation. I do think he has that kind of capability, but he hasn't actually DONE it yet.

Bottom line is with those kinds of weaknesses, you need HUGE points from the strong parts of your lineups. That means bonus points and finalists. Now, Gilman, Clark, and Sorenson could all be finalists, but it's hardly a guarantee. Meyer and Brooks, too, but Meyer is in his first varsity season from backing up Mike Evans, and Brooks has looked fantastic, but not against any of the top guys at the weight, and this weight is LOADED with evenly talented guys.

A lot has to go right for us and wrong for others to win, IMO. We just don't have the lock down bonus machines that other teams have. Penn State looks like Retherford and Nolf can win titles while bonusing at least to the semis. Nickal, too, though I think his style will be more "figured out" by season's end.

Okie State has Dieringer who is guaranteed 26+ points himself and the team has shown a tendency in the last few years to peak in March. Iowa, to be kind, has not.

 

[grappler6]

Where or what Kroells was doing had about 0% affect on Stolls decision on where he was going to attend school. Minnesota could've offered him a full ride and 100 pieces of prime real estate and it wouldn't have mattered. Sam was going to be a Hawkeye.

I was speaking about MN in a vacuum, not in comparison to other schools. He chose Iowa, which is what matters. Just giving a little historical context to the matchup for those who may not be familiar. History does not always repeat itself, should be a fun matchup.

 

[Spicolli]

Penn State looks like Retherford and Nolf can win titles while bonusing at least to the semis. Nickal, too, though I think his style will be more "figured out" by season's end.

Okie State has Dieringer who is guaranteed 26+ points himself and the team has shown a tendency in the last few years to peak in March. Iowa, to be kind, has not.

Nolf over IMar ??????

 

[The Vak]

I'm not saying he will beat I-Mart. I'm actually picking I-Mart. But I won't be shocked if Nolf beats him, I'd just put I-Mart as a solid favorite.

 

[Gobblin]

I was speaking about MN in a vacuum, not in comparison to other schools. He chose Iowa, which is what matters. Just giving a little historical context to the matchup for those who may not be familiar. History does not always repeat itself, should be a fun matchup.

You said Kroells was a "big reason" Sam didn't attend Minny... Which is false. Try to do a better job making your point, though I'm still not sure what it was.

 

[grappler6]

You said Kroells was a "big reason" Sam didn't attend Minny... Which is false. Try to do a better job making your point, though I'm still not sure what it was.

You don't get it, nor would you admit it if you did. Against my better judgement, one last attempt.

When considering MN as a school(not taking into account any other school), imagine Sam making a pro and con list about MN. Kroells being there and Sam having never beaten Kroells and the possibility Sam may only start two years ends up on the con list.

Notice I didn't say Kroells had any effect on Sam choosing Iowa. Sam was provided a good opportunity from Iowa.


My point was that Kroells holds all the victories in their matches from high school. Again giving historical context for those unfamiliar, while also acknowledging that past result don't always predict future results.

 

[trumpy]

If the Hawks truly want to win a NCAA Team Title this season they need to put the best team on the mat.

141 – Turk, Round of 12 possible low AA
149 – Kemerer, Top 4 maybe even finalist
157 – Sorenson, Top 4

No way would I move Sorenson to 157. I don't know enough about Turk or Kemerer to have an intelligent viewpoint. I know it's hard to believe.

 

[Gobblin]

You don't get it, nor would you admit it if you did. Against my better judgement, one last attempt.

When considering MN as a school(not taking into account any other school), imagine Sam making a pro and con list about MN. Kroells being there and Sam having never beaten Kroells and the possibility Sam may only start two years ends up on the con list.

Notice I didn't say Kroells had any effect on Sam choosing Iowa. Sam was provided a good opportunity from Iowa.


My point was that Kroells holds all the victories in their matches from high school. Again giving historical context for those unfamiliar, while also acknowledging that past result don't always predict future results.

Lol... And I'm the one who doesn't get it.

 

[letsgohawks44]

I'm not saying he will beat I-Mart. I'm actually picking I-Mart. But I won't be shocked if Nolf beats him, I'd just put I-Mart as a solid favorite.

I have a feeling points will be scored in this match.