Would love to be wrong on this one, obviously, but I think we have too many question marks/young guys next year to get where we'd like our boys to be. SPencer back is huge, obviously, because we're talking like 25-30 points. 133 is going to be a step backward, and that's no shot at our guys, but Desanto was special. Woods will be a big step up from what Eierman was able to do last year when injured, and is one of a couple of title favorites. Lets assume he wins and gets us 23 points.
After that we could have Warner and Cass both win it, though I think Warner is a bit of a long-shot due to limited offense and Cass...well lets just hope Mason Parris is on the other side. I think, healthy, he beats Kerk or Schultz. So, lets assume 40 points from those guys. Even in that wonderful scenario, we're still short of what Penn State is returning, and all their guys are heavy favorites to repeat (except Dean).
Then they're going to have RBY, Starocci, Brooks, Dean, and Kerk as title threats, with RBY, Star, and Brooks strong favorites to repeat. Lets give them 22 a piece (short of where they were last year) and the same 40 points I gave Warner and Cass.
So we're already at a deficit. We'd need Max to break thru (something I truly believe he can do, and maybe the thing I'm rooting for most after Spencer's 4th), or Kennedy to be an immediate title threat (hasn't shown that as of yet, but the talent is there), or Assad to jump levels, or 133 to hit (possible, but again very likely to be a set back even if they wrestle well), or Nelson Brands to jump levels...plus hope none of their young guys can hit or jump levels. I'm not super high on Howard or Bartlett or even Facundo after a somewhat meh redshirt year., but Van Ness might be a dude in his first year. I think just too many questions, but I very much hope I'm eating crow and you're right next year.
EDIT: Just saw that I misread your post, you said it was uphill but not a mountain. I thought you had said something else, so it appears we're just debating semantics on that issue, my bad.