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Realignment rumors

The official conference realignment predictions according to Evil Monkey:

Big Ten-
Penn State
Maryland
Rutgers
Ohio State
Michigan
Michigan State
Indiana
Purdue
Illinois
Northwestern
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Iowa
Nebraska
UCLA
USC
Oregon
Washington

SEC-
South Carolina
Clemson
Kentucky
Tennessee
Vanderbilt
Georgia
Florida
Florida State
Alabama
Auburn
Mississippi
Mississippi State
LSU
Arkansas
Missouri
Oklahoma
Texas
Texas A&M

Big 12-
UCF
West Virginia
Cincinnati
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State
Oklahoma State
Houston
Baylor
TCU
Texas Tech
BYU
Arizona
Arizona State
Colorado
Utah

MWC/GWC-
Boise State
Wyoming
Colorado State
Air Force
Utah State
New Mexico
Nevada
UNLV
Hawaii
Washington State
Oregon State
California
Stanford
San Diego State
San Jose State
Fresno State

ACC-
Connecticut
Boston College
Syracuse
Pittsburgh
Virginia
Virginia Tech
Louisville
Memphis
North Carolina
North Carolina State
Duke
Wake Forest
Georgia Tech
Miami
 
My daughter lives in Seattle. Downtown is falling apart, bums in front of abandoned storefronts smoking weed (when not passed out), panhandlers all over. And expensive as hell.

Great place to visit, but not exactly a place to visit over and over.
My sister-in-law lives in Eugene. Exactly the same thing. She says they are getting lots of people and homeless moving in from CA. The town has really gone downhill over the 45 years we have been going out there to visit.
 
If it were ACC schools to Big Ten?? North Carolina + ?
Definitely UNC …(#1 target from that conference)… and then I think one of the following: Virginia, Miami, Georgia Tech

If the PAC 12 somehow stays together, then maybe all four. Of course, it will most likely be a while before that could happen.
 
If the Pac-12 can somehow land a media deal securing ~$30M-33M per member would that still be enough to keep UO/UW from bolting to BigTen?

I bet even a partial share membership in the BigTen (at least initially, 5-7 yrs) would come in above that amount. Perhaps starting around ~$38M-$40M.
 
If the Pac-12 can somehow land a media deal securing ~$30M-33M per member would that still be enough to keep UO/UW from bolting to BigTen?

I bet even a partial share membership in the BigTen (at least initially, 5-7 yrs) would come in above that amount. Perhaps starting around ~$38M-$40M.
They don't have a choice. It will be on the Big Ten's timeline. So they take the best deal they can for the PAC until then. If Notre Dame addition looms then I think they all come at once.

I had seen mentioned that if Colorado by itself bolts, then the PAC will immediately add San Diego State and the PAC would stay together.
 
They don't have a choice. It will be on the Big Ten's timeline. So they take the best deal they can for the PAC until then. If Notre Dame addition looms then I think they all come at once.

I had seen mentioned that if Colorado by itself bolts, then the PAC will immediately add San Diego State and the PAC would stay together.
BigTen has vetted them, so that offer to join could come quicker than you think.

The LA schools need travel partners. Otherwise it won’t work in the long term.

ND isn’t joining until their hand is forced, i.e. the CFP is practically made out of reach.
 
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Oregon and Washington do nothing to reduce travel. LA to Eugene is 850 miles. LA to Seattle is 1100 miles. Do you think the UCLA golf team takes a van to Seattle? But adding those two schools would add a lot of travel for the current 14 members. And Oregon and Washington bring less value than the current payouts, so the B1G would be taking a permanent monetary loss to add them.

Notre Dame is never joining a conference. The 12-team CFP has all the access they need.
 
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Oregon and Washington do nothing to reduce travel. LA to Eugene is 850 miles. LA to Seattle is 1100 miles. Do you think the UCLA golf team takes a van to Seattle? But adding those two schools would add a lot of travel for the current 14 members. And Oregon and Washington bring less value than the current payouts, so the B1G would be taking a permanent monetary loss to add them.

Notre Dame is never joining a conference. The 12-team CFP has all the access they need.
With Notre Dame it all depends on who they can get on their schedule. If they become mostly fluff games I can't see them ultimately commanding the revenue SEC and Big Ten schools will. And if they want to die on that Independence hill, I say let them go ahead.

They do have a new AD coming in after this year.
 
Oregon and Washington do nothing to reduce travel. LA to Eugene is 850 miles. LA to Seattle is 1100 miles. Do you think the UCLA golf team takes a van to Seattle? But adding those two schools would add a lot of travel for the current 14 members. And Oregon and Washington bring less value than the current payouts, so the B1G would be taking a permanent monetary loss to add them.

Notre Dame is never joining a conference. The 12-team CFP has all the access they need.
Incorrect.

They don’t bring as much as the LA market, but they do indeed bring.

For travel think time zones

Also, trips to Eugene and Seattle are still far shorter than to Ann Arbor, Columbus, and State College.

The LA schools will suffer in the long run if their travel is always 1500+ miles East.
 
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The B1G 10: Expansion hinges on timing of Pac-12, ACC(?) implosions. It's 'when?', not 'if'


From the moment the Big Ten rolled out the Flex Protect schedule, expansion became the next inevitable move.

The only variable is time. And the potential implosion of the Pac-12.

The Flex Protect schedule, conference officials say, allows the Big Ten more flexibility in the 2024 schedule and beyond. But how far beyond?

A year from now, when USC and UCLA are officially on the 2024 Big Ten letterhead, the future of the conference could already be on the way to radical change.

Understand this: the Big Ten won’t raid the Pac-12 until it’s abundantly clear the conference already has been mortally wounded. Those are the clear marching orders from the conference university presidents, a Big Ten athletic director told Saturday Tradition.

In other words, the Big Ten won’t be the reason the Pac-12 falls apart. But it will pick up pieces if/when it does.

TV Market isn't the key this time around

The difference with expansion this time around — opposed to expansion of a decade ago — is television market. When the Big Ten added Rutgers and Maryland, the big draw was the New York City and Washington D.C./Northern Virginia television markets.

This time around, it’s all about properties and football potential. Television markets aren’t as important because of streaming platforms and viewership moving away from cable.

More than anything, it’s about the new Playoff that begins in 2024 — a 12-team format built to benefit those conferences who can qualify the most teams. The distribution specifics for the estimated $1.5 billion annual payout are stilling being negotiated, but it will likely be a system based on units.

The more teams in the Playoff (and the more wins), the more units (see: money) earned.

Translation: the Big Ten wants football-playing schools with a strong history and investment (facility and academic) in the sport. That leaves a specific group of schools on the radar.

The candidates​

This group of potential expansion candidates begins with a caveat: the Pac-12 must be destabilized before the Big Ten makes a move, and that means 1 or more of the 4 corner schools have left for the Big 12.

It also means Notre Dame is staying with its independent status.

That leaves 5 logical potential additions for the Big Ten: Washington, Oregon, Stanford, California and Utah. If football prowess truly is driving this expansion — and why wouldn’t it? — Oregon, Utah and Washington are the 3 best options.
 
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The official conference realignment predictions according to Evil Monkey:

Big Ten-....
UCLA
USC
Oregon
Washington

SEC-
South Carolina
Clemson
Kentucky
Tennessee
Vanderbilt
Georgia
Florida
Florida State
Alabama
Auburn
Mississippi
Mississippi State
LSU
Arkansas
Missouri
Oklahoma
Texas
Texas A&M

Big 12-
UCF
West Virginia
Cincinnati
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State
Oklahoma State
Houston
Baylor
TCU
Texas Tech
BYU....
I think when the Big 2 get to 20-24 each that Rock Chalk makes the cut for one of them. the SEC would love them to improve their BB brands, they're AAU, they've had a few strong periods in FB and they have a decent endowment comparable to the bottom half of the Big10. Also, other than a few more of the ACC to the SEC, I like your list.
 
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