Regional Team???

AuroraHawk

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From @KyleHuesmann:


4 teams from B1G in first projections from Baseball America. Purdue, Maryland, Michigan and Iowa. I know it is early but goes to show how important it may be for the Hawkeyes to roll into Ann Arbor and take a road series.

FWIW, College Sports Madness released its first bracket yesterday. Only Purdue and Maryland were included from the B1G.

Seems a tad more realistic than Baseball America’s projections.
 

DodgerHawki

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From @KyleHuesmann:



4 teams from B1G in first projections from Baseball America. Purdue, Maryland, Michigan and Iowa. I know it is early but goes to show how important it may be for the Hawkeyes to roll into Ann Arbor and take a road series.

FWIW, College Sports Madness released its first bracket yesterday. Only Purdue and Maryland were included from the B1G.

Seems a tad more realistic than Baseball America’s projections.
Does BA do more of a projecting out the season to put together their list now, rather than a "performance to date" type of thing?

Series win at Michigan helped out a lot. Iowa beating Michigan 2 out of 3, however, moved Michigan out of a Quad 1 opponent as they dropped below 50 in the RPI.

If it comes down to it, Iowa's split with Texas Tech may be the best non-conference win of the year for the Big 10.
 

whatsup13579er

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The series win in Ann Arbor this weekend was huge. Also, FWIW, BA did make the disclaimer in the beginning of their article that this is the field of 64 that they were projecting at the end of the season and not what the field would look like if the season ended the day they released it.
 

DodgerHawki

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The series win in Ann Arbor this weekend was huge. Also, FWIW, BA did make the disclaimer in the beginning of their article that this is the field of 64 that they were projecting at the end of the season and not what the field would look like if the season ended the day they released it.
Thank you. The Iowa resume is going to be interesting. They just aren't going to have many games against Quad 1 teams it appears, unless Michigan can win and get themselves into that area. Might be a year where the Big 10 doesn't get that many teams in. It would benefit Iowa to finish very high in the conference (duh).
 
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whatsup13579er

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Thank you. The Iowa resume is going to be interesting. They just aren't going to have many games against Quad 1 teams it appears, unless Michigan can win and get themselves into that area. Might be a year where the Big 10 doesn't get that many teams in. It would benefit Iowa to finish very high in the conference (duh).
A big part of Iowa's postseason hopes will depend on how Michigan, Rutgers, Illinois, and to a lesser extent Purdue, plays against Maryland. Right now Maryland is 15 in the RPI. Far ahead of anyone else in the conference. Iowa doesn't play Maryland in conference this season so those secondary impact games could go a long way to helping boost Iowa's RPI. And of course Iowa needs to keep winning and finish near the top of the conference.
 

AuroraHawk

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A big part of Iowa's postseason hopes will depend on how Michigan, Rutgers, Illinois, and to a lesser extent Purdue, plays against Maryland. Right now Maryland is 15 in the RPI. Far ahead of anyone else in the conference. Iowa doesn't play Maryland in conference this season so those secondary impact games could go a long way to helping boost Iowa's RPI. And of course Iowa needs to keep winning and finish near the top of the conference.
I'd only add that Iowa must perform well at home. The corollary to not facing a number of high RPI teams is that losses at home to Q3 teams (or worse) are RPI killers. Taking 2 of 3 from Illinois this weekend would likely be a "push" in terms of RPI points but taking 2 of 3 from Minnesota would likely drop Iowa 10+ rungs on the RPI ladder.
 
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HawkeyeGenius

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Iowa would really benefit right now from having even one more win or two right now say against Corpus Christi and Central Michigan. RPI would probably be low 50's or even 40's. Those two really killed RPI momentum.
 
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whatsup13579er

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D1 Baseball has their first bracket prediction out and has Iowa as a 3 seed. They take into account both the current resume and how they think the schedule will play out. Seems a little wishy washy to me… Iowa with 2 perennial powers in Texas and LSU

AUSTIN
1 Texas (7)
4 Davidson*
2 LSU
3 Iowa

 

HawkeyeGenius

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whatsup13579er

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That really stings, especially since Iowa was one strike away from taking the series.
Hopefully a month from now we are not looking back at that moment of time as the point where the season went south but right now it feels like a big moment.
 

whatsup13579er

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1 of 3 against Rutgers actually would gain you in RPI. It feels like Iowa needs to take 2 of 3 though now.
On the road at Rutgers against a top 40 team is Iowa's last chance to make a big RPI jump and they need to take advantage. They can gain some ground at Nebby and at MSU but home series against Purdue and Indiana will be hoping to hold their ground.

Looking at resumes for a minute, Iowa has a pretty nice resume in the works. 9-6 vs Q2 teams compared to Illinois at 3-3. So a bulk of Iowa's 16 wins are against good teams. If they can just get the RPI into a respectable range, they should have a solid chance at an at large bid.
 
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whatsup13579er

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BA has Iowa as the 7th team out in this week's projections. Illinois is the 2nd team out and UC Irvine as the 8th team out.

The top 5 teams in the B1G (Rutger, Illinois, Maryland, IOWA, Michigan) are starting to separate themselves in the conference standings.
 

AuroraHawk

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BA has Iowa as the 7th team out in this week's projections. Illinois is the 2nd team out and UC Irvine as the 8th team out.

The top 5 teams in the B1G (Rutger, Illinois, Maryland, IOWA, Michigan) are starting to separate themselves in the conference standings.
Michigan closes its season by playing both Rutgers and Maryland.
After this weekend, Iowa will have played 3 of the top 5 teams and they don't have Maryland on the schedule.

EDIT: I just looked at Rutgers' schedule. Home: Iowa; Away: Ohio State; Home: Maryland; Away: Michigan. They are currently 11-1 in the B1G. If they win 2 of 3 against Iowa and sit 13-2 with 9 to play, including 3 against a pretty bad OSU team, they'll be in great shape. They could easily be 15-3 or 16-2 leading into the last 6 games of their season. Credit where credit is due: Rutgers has absolutely dominated the teams in the bottom of the B1G. If Iowa is going to catch them, they'll need to take the series and also take care of games against the lower part of the standings.

Final 3 weekends of B1G competition include:

May 6-8 - Maryland at Rutgers; Indiana at Michigan (Illinois non-conf games)
May 13-15 - Michigan at Maryland; Nebraska at Illinois (Rutgers non-conf games)
May 19-21 - Rutgers at Michigan; Maryland at Purdue; Illinois at PSU

Illinois does not play Michigan or Rutgers this year.

I see the B1G only getting 2 or, at best, 3 teams getting invites to a Regional. I think that 4 is a stretch.

Unfortunately - with exception of Iowa/Rutgers this weekend - what is good for Iowa in the B1G standings is not good for Iowa's RPI rating. Having Illinois, Michigan and Rutgers falter would help Iowa's B1G standing but doesn't help B1G conference ratings or Iowa's individual ratings.

Lots of work to do. Just win.
 
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HawkeyeGenius

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Michigan closes its season by playing both Rutgers and Maryland.
After this weekend, Iowa will have played 3 of the top 5 teams and they don't have Maryland on the schedule.

EDIT: I just looked at Rutgers' schedule. Home: Iowa; Away: Ohio State; Home: Maryland; Away: Michigan. They are currently 11-1 in the B1G. If they win 2 of 3 against Iowa and sit 13-2 with 9 to play, including 3 against a pretty bad OSU team, they'll be in great shape. They could easily be 15-3 or 16-2 leading into the last 6 games of their season. Credit where credit is due: Rutgers has absolutely dominated the teams in the bottom of the B1G. If Iowa is going to catch them, they'll need to take the series and also take care of games against the lower part of the standings.

I see the B1G only getting 2 or, at best, 3 teams getting invites to a Regional. I think that 4 is a stretch.

Unfortunately - with exception of Iowa/Rutgers this weekend - what is good for Iowa in the B1G standings is not good for Iowa's RPI rating. Having Illinois, Michigan and Rutgers falter would help Iowa's B1G standing but doesn't help B1G conference ratings or Iowa's individual ratings.

Lots of work to do. Just win.
The committee has been more forgiving with RPI if it's 50's or 60's of a regular season champion. Can Iowa do that? Not sure. I'd feel better had they taken 2/3 from Illinois.
 
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HawkeyeGenius

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Iowa has been in this position almost every year since 2017 ( their last regional) which is good considering the disaster the 20 years prior were. Can they finish this time? Our starting pitching is as good as it has been. Bullpen and midweek? Not so much.
 
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AuroraHawk

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Dep prep day . . .
Just listened to latest iteration of the Big Baseball Podcast.

Opinions of host and guest (Patrick Ebert; Midwest Analyst d1 Baseball) - take it FWIW:

1. Rutgers - barring complete collapse, they will be in NCAA tournament
2. Maryland - barring complete collapse, they will be in NCAA tournament
3. Iowa - they need wins; season ending "run" should get them in.
4. Michigan - in trouble but they have an opportunity to make a run against Rutgers and Maryland. Lacks pitching.
5. Illinois - in big trouble; Indiana series extremely damaging overall record isn't strong. Also has pitching problems.

Most likely teams: Rutgers, Maryland and Iowa. Outside of another team winning the tournament, B1G will get, at most, 3 teams into the tournament.

Other comments: Indiana (winners of 7 of 9), MSU (won 6 in a row) and Purdue (just took series from Michigan) starting to play good baseball again (look at Iowa's schedule!!!) While it is nice that some other teams that were expected to be decent are starting to play decent, "parity" in B1G does not bode well for NCAA Regional bids.

The hosts are the radio broadcast team for Purdue baseball. Essentially concluded that it is a "must" for Purdue to win one game in Iowa City this weekend. They felt that Purdue played best series of year against Michigan and they may be getting a key pitcher back in rotation.
 
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whatsup13579er

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Iowa wins a series at Nebraska and drops out of D1's projections, not even in the first four out, while Illinois losses their series to Indiana and stays in the first four out.


Iowa is the last team in BA's projections with Maryland and Rutger with no other B1G teams listed in the first or next four out.
 

HawkeyeGenius

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Iowa wins a series at Nebraska and drops out of D1's projections, not even in the first four out, while Illinois losses their series to Indiana and stays in the first four out.



Iowa is the last team in BA's projections with Maryland and Rutger with no other B1G teams listed in the first or next four out.
RPI

I believe D1 is based on right now. BA is how they think it'll look at the end of the season.
 

General Tso

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Iowa wins a series at Nebraska and drops out of D1's projections, not even in the first four out, while Illinois losses their series to Indiana and stays in the first four out.



Iowa is the last team in BA's projections with Maryland and Rutger with no other B1G teams listed in the first or next four out.
Another reason why Nebraska is worthless
 
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AuroraHawk

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Running errands on Saturday and flipped on ESPNU on XM. Caught the last half of a discussion on college baseball likely at-large picks and bubble analysis. Missed their discussion on B1G teams.

Anyone catch it?

The announcers seemed to have a pretty good grasp of the issues and their discussion of the Regional Advisory Committees rankings and the RAC’s influence on the overall committee (and the politics).

Can’t help but wonder how the Midwest RAC views Iowa and how the RAC will rank Iowa among Midwest teams. That’s where losing to ISU may come back and bite.

Say what you will regarding number of bids historically, Iowa and Illinois are tied for 3rd in the B1G and both sit in the 70s right now in RPI. Illinois has Nebraska and @PSU remaining. Nebraska desperately needs wins after gagging on the Gophers. PSU thumped MSU in two games this weekend.

I continue to believe that Iowa needs to separate itself from Illinois. If those to teams are tied in the standings for third place (either 16-8 or 17-7) and have RPIs in the 60s, I think that it is far more likely that neither team gets an at-large versus one or both getting an at-large.
 
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HawkeyeGenius

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Running errands on Saturday and flipped on ESPNU on XM. Caught the last half of a discussion on college baseball likely at-large picks and bubble analysis. Missed their discussion on B1G teams.

Anyone catch it?

The announcers seemed to have a pretty good grasp of the issues and their discussion of the Regional Advisory Committees rankings and the RAC’s influence on the overall committee (and the politics).

Can’t help but wonder how the Midwest RAC views Iowa and how the RAC will rank Iowa among Midwest teams. That’s where losing to ISU may come back and bite.

Say what you will regarding number of bids historically, Iowa and Illinois are tied for 3rd in the B1G and both sit in the 70s right now in RPI. Illinois has Nebraska and @PSU remaining. Nebraska desperately needs wins after gagging on the Gophers. PSU thumped MSU in two games this weekend.

I continue to believe that Iowa needs to separate itself from Illinois. If those to teams are tied in the standings for third place (either 16-8 or 17-7) and have RPIs in the 60s, I think that it is far more likely that neither team gets an at-large versus one or both getting an at-large.
Illinois really can't gain a ton RPI wise compared to Iowa.
 
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Let’s just go win the Conference Tourney, I think we will get screwed otherwise. Illinois State loss was a real kick in the nuts
 

Franisdaman

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If Iowa wins out in conference play (tough task) I think they’ll share for the conference title. I see both Rutgers and Maryland losing at least one more conference game.


Is the B1G a 2 team or 3 team NCAA Tournament conference?

History says the B1G will get 3 teams in; I just hope Iowa makes the cut.
 

DodgerHawki

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History as in the last ten years says three, but RPI is weighed so heavily.
Yeah no one knows exactly. Iowa really, really needs to win a lot of games down the stretch. A sweep in one of the two final Big 10 series would be really helpful. The games that will haunt Iowa if they don't get in are the third game against Rutgers after winning the first 2, and the middle game against Illinois, where 1 strike away from winning and lose in extra innings.
 

HawkeyeGenius

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Yeah no one knows exactly. Iowa really, really needs to win a lot of games down the stretch. A sweep in one of the two final Big 10 series would be really helpful. The games that will haunt Iowa if they don't get in are the third game against Rutgers after winning the first 2, and the middle game against Illinois, where 1 strike away from winning and lose in extra innings.
More so the Illinois game if they end up tied at say 17-7 and an RPI within a few spots of one another.
 

Franisdaman

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Yeah no one knows exactly. Iowa really, really needs to win a lot of games down the stretch. A sweep in one of the two final Big 10 series would be really helpful. The games that will haunt Iowa if they don't get in are the third game against Rutgers after winning the first 2, and the middle game against Illinois, where 1 strike away from winning and lose in extra innings.

More so the Illinois game if they end up tied at say 17-7 and an RPI within a few spots of one another.


It sure would be sweet if we could get a win over Illinois & Maryland in the B1G Tournament.
 
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AuroraHawk

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History as in the last ten years says three. . .

With the giant caveat of . . .

. . . RPI is weighed so heavily.

. . . this.

2013 - Second place OSU (RPI #53) and Third place Nebraska (RPI #46) left out. 5th place Illinois (RPI #44) gets in. Two teams total.
2014 - Third place Illinois (RPI #56) left out. Two teams total.
2015 - B1G gets 5 teams. The 4 at-large teams had RPIs of 13, 29, 34 and 42.
2016 - B1G gets 3 teams. The 2 at-large teams had RPIs of 50 and 53 but finished first and second place in the conference. Michigan had an RPI of 39 (5th place) - left out. Illinois had an RPI of 55 (6th place) - left out.
2017 - B1G gets 5 teams. The 4 at-large teams had RPIs of 34, 40, 44 and 54. The team with RPI of 54 finished in first place in the conference. Minnesota in 4th place with RPI of 72 left out.
2018 - B1G gets 4 teams. The 3 at-large teams had RPIs of 34, 40 and 46. 7th place OSU gets in with a 46 RPI and 4th place Illinois left out with a RPI of 50.
2019 - B1G gets 5 teams. The 4 at-large teams had RPIs of 35, 38 and 40.
2020 - COVID cancellation.
2021 - COVID restricted play. 3 teams. 2 at-large teams have RPIs of 56 (Maryland) and 94 (Michigan). Numbers skewed because of conference only play.

From 2013 - 3rd place finishes:
2013 - 3rd place (RPI 46) - left out.
2014 - 3rd place (RPI 56) - left out.
2015 - 3rd place (RPI 42) - invited
2016 - 3rd place - automatic qualifier
2017 - 3rd place (RPI 72) - left out
2018 - 3rd place (RPI 63) - left out
2019 - 3rd place (RPI 38) - invited
2021 - 3rd place (RPI 94) - invited

From 2013 - Highest RPI from B1G invited to tournament as an at-large
2013 - #53 - Second place in regular season
2014 - #33 - Second place in regular season
2015 - #42 - Third place in regular season
2016 - #53 - Second place in regular season
2017 - #54 - First place in regular season
2018 - #46 - Seventh place in regular season
2019 - #40 - Fourth place in regular season
2021 - #94 - Third place in regular season

If you set aside the '21 COVID anamoly, there hasn't been a B1G team that has received an at-large berth with a RPI higher than #54. The only at-large invitations to teams with RPIs greater than 50 (3 times) have finished the regular season in either first place or second place (twice). The highest RPI of a third place finisher to receive an invite is #42.

By my review of the numbers, history suggests that there is an excellent chance of getting an at-large invitation if you finish with an RPI in the 40s OR if you finish first or second in the conference in the regular season and have an RPI below 55.

Other than the '21 COVID anomaly, since 2013, there is no historical precedent where a B1G team with a RPI in the 60s gets an at-large invitation, let alone precedent suggesting that a third place team with an RPI in the 60s receives an invitation.

The numbers don't lie. If Iowa finishes in 3rd place with an RPI in high 50s or low 60s, receiving an at-large bid would be a deviation from what has occurred since 2013 (again, excluding the weirdness of last year).

Don't get me wrong. I don't like it. In fact, I hate it. But, that's the history.
 
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whatsup13579er

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With the giant caveat of . . .



. . . this.

2013 - Second place OSU (RPI #53) and Third place Nebraska (RPI #46) left out. 5th place Illinois (RPI #44) gets in. Two teams total.
2014 - Third place Illinois (RPI #56) left out. Two teams total.
2015 - B1G gets 5 teams. The 4 at-large teams had RPIs of 13, 29, 34 and 42.
2016 - B1G gets 3 teams. The 2 at-large teams had RPIs of 50 and 53 but finished first and second place in the conference. Michigan had an RPI of 39 (5th place) - left out. Illinois had an RPI of 55 (6th place) - left out.
2017 - B1G gets 5 teams. The 4 at-large teams had RPIs of 34, 40, 44 and 54. The team with RPI of 54 finished in first place in the conference. Minnesota in 4th place with RPI of 72 left out.
2018 - B1G gets 4 teams. The 3 at-large teams had RPIs of 34, 40 and 46. 7th place OSU gets in with a 46 RPI and 4th place Illinois left out with a RPI of 50.
2019 - B1G gets 5 teams. The 4 at-large teams had RPIs of 35, 38 and 40.
2020 - COVID cancellation.
2021 - COVID restricted play. 3 teams. 2 at-large teams have RPIs of 56 (Maryland) and 94 (Michigan). Numbers skewed because of conference only play.

From 2013 - 3rd place finishes:
2013 - 3rd place (RPI 46) - left out.
2014 - 3rd place (RPI 56) - left out.
2015 - 3rd place (RPI 42) - invited
2016 - 3rd place - automatic qualifier
2017 - 3rd place (RPI 72) - left out
2018 - 3rd place (RPI 63) - left out
2019 - 3rd place (RPI 38) - invited
2021 - 3rd place (RPI 94) - invited

From 2013 - Highest RPI from B1G invited to tournament as an at-large
2013 - #53 - Second place in regular season
2014 - #33 - Second place in regular season
2015 - #42 - Third place in regular season
2016 - #53 - Second place in regular season
2017 - #54 - First place in regular season
2018 - #46 - Seventh place in regular season
2019 - #40 - Fourth place in regular season
2021 - #94 - Third place in regular season

If you set aside the '21 COVID anamoly, there hasn't been a B1G team that has received an at-large berth with a RPI higher than #54. The only at-large invitations to teams with RPIs greater than 50 (3 times) have finished the regular season in either first place or second place (twice). The highest RPI of a third place finisher to receive an invite is #42.

By my review of the numbers, history suggests that there is an excellent chance of getting an at-large invitation if you finish with an RPI in the 40s OR if you finish first or second in the conference in the regular season and have an RPI below 55.

Other than the '21 COVID anomaly, since 2013, there is no historical precedent where a B1G team with a RPI in the 60s gets an at-large invitation, let alone precedent suggesting that a third place team with an RPI in the 60s receives an invitation.

The numbers don't lie. If Iowa finishes in 3rd place with an RPI in high 50s or low 60s, receiving an at-large bid would be a deviation from what has occurred since 2013 (again, excluding the weirdness of last year).

Don't get me wrong. I don't like it. In fact, I hate it. But, that's the history.
Nice work Aurora. 2nd place in the B1G is really Iowa's best chance at this point unless they get a whole lot of help from the other impact games on their RPI. A 3 way tie for 1st between Iowa/Rutger/Maryland would be an ideal finish for Iowa.

Iowa has a strong overall record to go with their conference record. However, an extra signature win against Texas AM or Texas Tech would look pretty nice right about now or even another against UC Irvine or Illinois...
 
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