The Senate is gearing up for a procedural vote on a $110.5 billion national security bill this afternoon for Ukraine, Israel, Gaza humanitarian aid and the border.
It will fail. All or nearly all — probably all — Republicans will vote against it today because it includes no changes to U.S. policy on the border. The vote will be “decisive,” one senior Republican aide said.
Will this failed vote be the end of U.S. assistance to Ukraine? Or will it chart an eventual path to passage?
“I think … Schumer will realize we’re serious,” said Sen. John Cornyn (R-Tex.). “And then the discussions will begin in earnest.”
As we’ve written multiple times, border policy and immigration is one of the most difficult issues that Congress faces, unable to pass potential solutions for more than two decades. A negotiation behind closed doors with just 5 percent of the Senate led by Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.), who is untested in the art of bipartisan negotiations, is a tall task. And it’s even more difficult to complete in a matter of weeks when it is tied to unrelated issues like military aid to Ukraine.
The Biden administration continues to warn of the consequences of failing to send more aid to Ukraine.
“I can tell you where people are who do not want to see the supplemental pass,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Tuesday night at a U.S. Global Leadership Coalition event. “They're sitting in offices in Beijing, in Moscow and Tehran.”
For the time being, House Republicans are watching to see what the Senate does with the supplemental. Republicans argue they’ve already passed Israel aid and border security, so the onus is on the Senate, as many House Republicans are in no hurry to vote on aid for Ukraine.
Meanwhile, the border is not the only issue in the supplemental causing heartburn.
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) said in an interview Tuesday night that he’ll vote against the procedural vote on the supplemental because the measure lacks conditions on the $10 billion in military aid for Israel.
In a letter to his colleagues sent Tuesday evening signaling his move, Sanders argued that the Israeli government is waging an “immoral” war.
While Sanders was the first senator in the caucus to call for conditions on aid to Israel, that number is growing. No other lawmaker in the caucus, however, has said they would oppose a broad funding package that also includes money for Ukraine.
However, a group of Democrats is “urged President Biden to do more to protect civilians in Gaza, writing in a letter sent Tuesday that the U.S. should ensure weapons it is transferring to Israel are not being used in a way that violates international law,” Liz writes. “The letter also expressed concerns about a lack of ‘transparency’ of those transfers.”
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), who led the letter, said it is “important” that any aid package “reiterate” compliance with U.S. and international law, but there is not such language in the current aid package.
“Sens. Tim Kaine (D-Va.), Martin Heinrich (D-New Mexico) and Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) also signed on to the letter requesting a briefing by next week and the answers to a lengthy list of questions about the U.S.’s posture on Israel’s military strategy,” Liz notes.
It will fail. All or nearly all — probably all — Republicans will vote against it today because it includes no changes to U.S. policy on the border. The vote will be “decisive,” one senior Republican aide said.
Will this failed vote be the end of U.S. assistance to Ukraine? Or will it chart an eventual path to passage?
Democrats’ pessimism
Democrats are extremely pessimistic about the prospects for Ukraine aid.- “I just don’t think there’s any question that we are about to abandon Ukraine,” said Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), one of the key negotiators on the border package. “When Vladimir Putin marches into Kyiv and into Europe, Republicans will have to live with the fact that our sons and daughters will be over fighting when Vladimir Putin marches into a NATO country. They will rue the day that they decided to play politics.”
- “We have to seriously contemplate the possibility that we’re not going to get this done,” said Sen. Christopher A. Coons (D-Del.). “Ukraine is in desperate need of confidence that we will continue to keep our word.”
- “In the briefing, Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) raised his voice at Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.), who blamed Republicans for injecting border policy demands. Cotton retorted that the blame should be on the president,” Leigh Ann writes with our colleagues Liz Goodwin and Marianna Sotomayor.
- “Other Republicans, unified in their intent to redirect the briefing to the issue of security on the U.S.-Mexico border, also engaged in the argument. Cotton then asked the briefers for an exact date when funding for Ukraine would run out. A group of Republicans walked out in protest just 30 minutes after the briefing began.”
Republicans see leverage
Republicans see leverage in a failed vote, suggesting it could push Democrats to realize they must accept a more conservative set of immigration policies to get the Israel and Ukraine funding.“I think … Schumer will realize we’re serious,” said Sen. John Cornyn (R-Tex.). “And then the discussions will begin in earnest.”
As we’ve written multiple times, border policy and immigration is one of the most difficult issues that Congress faces, unable to pass potential solutions for more than two decades. A negotiation behind closed doors with just 5 percent of the Senate led by Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.), who is untested in the art of bipartisan negotiations, is a tall task. And it’s even more difficult to complete in a matter of weeks when it is tied to unrelated issues like military aid to Ukraine.
The Biden administration continues to warn of the consequences of failing to send more aid to Ukraine.
“I can tell you where people are who do not want to see the supplemental pass,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Tuesday night at a U.S. Global Leadership Coalition event. “They're sitting in offices in Beijing, in Moscow and Tehran.”
In the House
Like the Senate, the House also received a classified briefing on Tuesday. It was not nearly as dramatic, however.For the time being, House Republicans are watching to see what the Senate does with the supplemental. Republicans argue they’ve already passed Israel aid and border security, so the onus is on the Senate, as many House Republicans are in no hurry to vote on aid for Ukraine.
Sanders to oppose supplemental vote
Meanwhile, the border is not the only issue in the supplemental causing heartburn.
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) said in an interview Tuesday night that he’ll vote against the procedural vote on the supplemental because the measure lacks conditions on the $10 billion in military aid for Israel.
- “We have to end our complicity,” Sanders said. “I think the military strategy of the [Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu government has not been to go to war against Hamas, but to go to war against the Palestinian people. What we are seeing is horrific; it is devastating. We should not be part of it.”
In a letter to his colleagues sent Tuesday evening signaling his move, Sanders argued that the Israeli government is waging an “immoral” war.
While Sanders was the first senator in the caucus to call for conditions on aid to Israel, that number is growing. No other lawmaker in the caucus, however, has said they would oppose a broad funding package that also includes money for Ukraine.
However, a group of Democrats is “urged President Biden to do more to protect civilians in Gaza, writing in a letter sent Tuesday that the U.S. should ensure weapons it is transferring to Israel are not being used in a way that violates international law,” Liz writes. “The letter also expressed concerns about a lack of ‘transparency’ of those transfers.”
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), who led the letter, said it is “important” that any aid package “reiterate” compliance with U.S. and international law, but there is not such language in the current aid package.
“Sens. Tim Kaine (D-Va.), Martin Heinrich (D-New Mexico) and Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) also signed on to the letter requesting a briefing by next week and the answers to a lengthy list of questions about the U.S.’s posture on Israel’s military strategy,” Liz notes.
