Here's a look at the roster using win shares per 40.
Jok .203; He has an outstanding 7.5 offensive box +/- but a poor -1.0 defensive sum. The inability to play defense at a high level will probably relegate him to being a JR Smith type shooter off the bench in the NBA as a ceiling.
Baer .166; Not surprising that he is ranked #2 on the team. He is a jack of all trades type player. He also has the highest defensive box score on the team at 5.7.
Kreiner .147; Hopefully the positive takeaway for Fran this weekend is Kreiner factoring into the regular rotation more frequently going forward. His ability to spread the floor should create some mismatches for opposing 5's.
Pemsl .137; He's a solid all around post that can play the 5 in stretches but better suited at the 4.
Ellingson .128; A little hard to believe but he has the highest true shooting % on the team at .713. He also leads the team in 3pt% at a very good .485. He doesn't take a lot of bad shots. He's an ideal 7-8 guy.
Daily .105; with only 73 minutes played it's a small sample size to make an accurate assessment. I think his play should warrant some additional opportunity at the wing.
Cook .104; he's a fine offensive post player but he has limitations in other areas of his game that negatively impact his total. For one thing, his rebound percentage is actual lower than Jok's. His block percentage is lower than Moss'. His assist percentage is almost non-existent. For the things he does well offensively in the post, there are things he needs to work on in the other areas of his game.
Wagner .104; essentially the opposite of Cook. He does well defensively, has a solid assist block and steal percentage. His rebounding percentage leaves plenty of room for improvement and he's very limited offensively.
Bohannon .073; I expected him to be higher. His PER is only 11.4 which is 10th on the team. His steal percentage is 11th on the team which is disappointing for a pg. His rebound percentage is 13th, only higher than Ellingson. His defensive box score +/- is last on the team if you don't count Charlie Rose and his 8 minutes. He certainly has a lot of potential if he can learn to play adequate defense.
Moss .067; 11.6 PER which is disappointing for a starting 2. His rebounding percentage is on par with Bohannon and his steal percentage is on par with Ellingson. You would expect a better athlete to be improved in those areas. The good news is that Devyn Marble was a terrible .052 WS/40 his freshman year and improved to .122 by his second season. Hopefully Moss can follow that same trajectory.
Uhl .051; There's just not much to like here. His defensive box +/- is a serviceable 1.2 but his offensive score is -1.9. He's basically fallen back to his freshman year advanced stats after a solid sophomore season (WS/40 .122). His PER (10.4) is the worst of anyone getting decent minutes not named Christian Williams. His turnover % is 2nd worst on the team.
Williams .032; There's no real positive way to spin this. He leads the team in turnovers %. His PER is an atrocious 8.0. If we had something else on this team resembling a backup pg, I would give serious consideration to moving him to the 2 and see if he can improve when he's not the primary ball handler. The problem there is that he's still a bad shooter with the worst true shooting % on the team. The one positive thing is that his defensive box +/- actual shows a respectable defensive sum. He's just such a trainwreck offensively that it doesn't matter. Maybe the long-term solution would be a move to the wing as a defensive specialist, essentially what we thought Brandon Hutton would be.
My thoughts on the rotation.
I don't think playing Cook/Pemsl together for extended minutes is the best option. Against smaller lineups it might be ok but not generally.
I'd like to see a starting 5 of
Bohannon
Jok
Baer
Pemsl
Kreiner
Cook and Moss would be the first off the bench.
Some may think it's crazy to play Cook in the 2nd unit but I disagree for now. I think Pemsl creates much bigger mismatches against 4s than he does 5s while Kreiner gives more length inside and also creates mismatches against opposing 5s with his ability to space the floor with his shot. Cook is an offensive spark that right now is limited in other areas of the game. I'd like to see his offensive ability get leveraged in the second unit.
I also like the idea of Jok and Baer starting on the wings with Moss off the bench. Baer is arguably the best all around player (not to be mistaken as best overall). A starting unit of JaBo, Jok and Baer would be a tough back court to defend. Moss could be used in a flex role off the bench.
Jok .203; He has an outstanding 7.5 offensive box +/- but a poor -1.0 defensive sum. The inability to play defense at a high level will probably relegate him to being a JR Smith type shooter off the bench in the NBA as a ceiling.
Baer .166; Not surprising that he is ranked #2 on the team. He is a jack of all trades type player. He also has the highest defensive box score on the team at 5.7.
Kreiner .147; Hopefully the positive takeaway for Fran this weekend is Kreiner factoring into the regular rotation more frequently going forward. His ability to spread the floor should create some mismatches for opposing 5's.
Pemsl .137; He's a solid all around post that can play the 5 in stretches but better suited at the 4.
Ellingson .128; A little hard to believe but he has the highest true shooting % on the team at .713. He also leads the team in 3pt% at a very good .485. He doesn't take a lot of bad shots. He's an ideal 7-8 guy.
Daily .105; with only 73 minutes played it's a small sample size to make an accurate assessment. I think his play should warrant some additional opportunity at the wing.
Cook .104; he's a fine offensive post player but he has limitations in other areas of his game that negatively impact his total. For one thing, his rebound percentage is actual lower than Jok's. His block percentage is lower than Moss'. His assist percentage is almost non-existent. For the things he does well offensively in the post, there are things he needs to work on in the other areas of his game.
Wagner .104; essentially the opposite of Cook. He does well defensively, has a solid assist block and steal percentage. His rebounding percentage leaves plenty of room for improvement and he's very limited offensively.
Bohannon .073; I expected him to be higher. His PER is only 11.4 which is 10th on the team. His steal percentage is 11th on the team which is disappointing for a pg. His rebound percentage is 13th, only higher than Ellingson. His defensive box score +/- is last on the team if you don't count Charlie Rose and his 8 minutes. He certainly has a lot of potential if he can learn to play adequate defense.
Moss .067; 11.6 PER which is disappointing for a starting 2. His rebounding percentage is on par with Bohannon and his steal percentage is on par with Ellingson. You would expect a better athlete to be improved in those areas. The good news is that Devyn Marble was a terrible .052 WS/40 his freshman year and improved to .122 by his second season. Hopefully Moss can follow that same trajectory.
Uhl .051; There's just not much to like here. His defensive box +/- is a serviceable 1.2 but his offensive score is -1.9. He's basically fallen back to his freshman year advanced stats after a solid sophomore season (WS/40 .122). His PER (10.4) is the worst of anyone getting decent minutes not named Christian Williams. His turnover % is 2nd worst on the team.
Williams .032; There's no real positive way to spin this. He leads the team in turnovers %. His PER is an atrocious 8.0. If we had something else on this team resembling a backup pg, I would give serious consideration to moving him to the 2 and see if he can improve when he's not the primary ball handler. The problem there is that he's still a bad shooter with the worst true shooting % on the team. The one positive thing is that his defensive box +/- actual shows a respectable defensive sum. He's just such a trainwreck offensively that it doesn't matter. Maybe the long-term solution would be a move to the wing as a defensive specialist, essentially what we thought Brandon Hutton would be.
My thoughts on the rotation.
I don't think playing Cook/Pemsl together for extended minutes is the best option. Against smaller lineups it might be ok but not generally.
I'd like to see a starting 5 of
Bohannon
Jok
Baer
Pemsl
Kreiner
Cook and Moss would be the first off the bench.
Some may think it's crazy to play Cook in the 2nd unit but I disagree for now. I think Pemsl creates much bigger mismatches against 4s than he does 5s while Kreiner gives more length inside and also creates mismatches against opposing 5s with his ability to space the floor with his shot. Cook is an offensive spark that right now is limited in other areas of the game. I'd like to see his offensive ability get leveraged in the second unit.
I also like the idea of Jok and Baer starting on the wings with Moss off the bench. Baer is arguably the best all around player (not to be mistaken as best overall). A starting unit of JaBo, Jok and Baer would be a tough back court to defend. Moss could be used in a flex role off the bench.
