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Royal Bank of Scotland sez... Sell Everything now!

Not to disagree with their projections ... but everyone should understand that this bank bet the ranch and everyone else's ranch on the housing market prior to the 2008 meltdown. Their stock is down from $220 or so to around $8.

So their track record with their own money is not that hot ... technically, their shareholder's money but still their main function in life is to preserve this value; something they have clearly been unable to do.

I would think long and hard before following them into anything to do with investments ... long, short, or otherwise.
 
I understand that moving money into a bond fund at current rates is essentially moving your money to cash, but within a 401(k), its a way to de-risk if you think the market is about to crash and then you can move your money back into stocks after the crash. As I said earlier, I'm not going to try to market time any crash. I've got plenty of time until retirement, so I'll just ride it out. But if I was in my 60s, moving money to bonds seems like a good way to secure profits if you're worried about a market crash.

I wish more 401 plans would offer either a basket of or categories of commodity type funds.

I am sure your plan has a guaranteed/cash type option, I would look into that before a bond fund if nerves are driving your decision.
 
The person this would really hurt is Hillary and those who thought they would never vote for Trump might.
 
I wish more 401 plans would offer either a basket of or categories of commodity type funds.

I am sure your plan has a guaranteed/cash type option, I would look into that before a bond fund if nerves are driving your decision.

This, bonds arent a wise decision in a correction caused by debt fears.
 
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No, I was just making the larger point that panic selling as things drop in a fall isn't always the best solution. Well-run, profitable companies with a good track record often hit bargain share prices when the markets are falling. A crap investment is a crap investment, so if you have a dog that isn't a good bet to survive a pullback, then let it go.....but people can unnecessarily wipe themselves out if the panic sell on a fall. Pull back on the dogs, but look for buying opportunities in the rubble.

Even in a recession, people are going to continue to need and want "stuff". People still need to eat. People still need places to live and they still need to get around. They still need services. Look for good buys.

In the Great Recession, my portfolio was a mixed bag. I sold some things at a loss for sure, but I held onto some things and added others. On the whole, I'm much better off for not panic-selling out of the market and waiting for the rebound. Dollar-cost-averaging is a proven strategy for a reason.
There was really no earthly reason the Fed should have raised the rates in December in the first place. They seemed to be doing it just to be doing it.

This.
 
Most people are afraid of inflation, but the real danger is deflation.
The reality is most people love inflation. Nobody wants to sell their house less than what they paid for it. The fact is this...inflation is a hidden tax that 99% of the people have not a clue. People think they are making more money when wages go up. What is really happening is a loss of purchasing power. This is brought on by a private banking cartel that has never had an independent audit. It manipulates rates causing boom bust cycles. The sheep are about to be shorn.

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The reality is most people love inflation. Nobody wants to sell their house less than what they paid for it. The fact is this...inflation is a hidden tax that 99% of the people have not a clue. People think they are making more money when wages go up. What is really happening is a loss of purchasing power. This is brought on by a private banking cartel that has never had an independent audit. It manipulates rates causing boom bust cycles. The sheep are about to be shorn.

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Inflation and growth. The health of modern economies is predicated on moderate amounts of both. You can argue whether that's good or bad, but you can't really argue that it's true.

Another good thing about inflation is that it makes debts cheaper to pay off. Which is to say it effects some egalitarian wealth redistribution between the debtor class and the lender class.

As I tried to explain here years ago, the main idea behind QE was to prompt enough inflation to keep housing and other values from declining even more. What's interesting about how that played out is that the rest of the world was also in pain and were late to try QE, so that we didn't end up paying the inflation penalty that we might have expected.
 
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Along with reducing unemployment to 5%, dramatically lowering gasoline prices, slashing the deficit, insuring millions....

The only one of those that isn't true is the one you mentioned.

Perhaps that's why you keep needing to sign up with a new handle. Yeah, that's just a guess. But it's probably most people's guess.
Unemployent at 5% is a total joke as millions have quit looking and what is out there for the most part are low paying and many part time jobs.But you keep believing what your POTUS said 7 years ago that he would reunite this country.
 
I have been largely out of the market since late 2007. I now only own shares in five companies...companies that make and sell things that I understand.

I'm surprised that you found five things that you can understand.
 
I have been largely out of the market since late 2007. I now only own shares in five companies...companies that make and sell things that I understand.

And I have almost tripled my net worth since 2008, and do so by investing almost exclusively in stocks.
 
Exxon/Mobil and Chevron are heavily diversified. Since they already have a hand in so much I think they'll weather the storm just fine. Even those that just refine and sell it will probably be fine. The price is down, but we are still buying the stuff. It's the equipment and service providers who will be hardest hit. Pipeline ownership has been consolidating at a rapid rate the last two years. They'll be okay.
As I understand it, their stock prices are heavily dependent on their proven "booked" oil and gas assets. The companies may survive due to diversification, but the shareholder will take a huge hit as the market recognizes that those assets are becoming worthless in a world that really can't afford the consequences of extracting and burning them.

Then again, the price of oil was around $105 in the summer of 2014 and so was the price of Exxon stock. Now the price of oil is around $30 while the price of Exxon is $75.

Whatever that signifies.
 
As I understand it, their stock prices are heavily dependent on their proven "booked" oil and gas assets. The companies may survive due to diversification, but the shareholder will take a huge hit as the market recognizes that those assets are becoming worthless in a world that really can't afford the consequences of extracting and burning them.

Then again, the price of oil was around $105 in the summer of 2014 and so was the price of Exxon stock. Now the price of oil is around $30 while the price of Exxon is $75.

Whatever that signifies.

I wouldn't expect gas prices and stock price for the Exxons and Chevrons to be 1-1 at all....or even necessarily a consistent ratio. I've owned and tracked them over the years and the big ones seem to float in the $60-120 range. Start getting much higher than $120 and they've had some history of doing a split to bring it back down to the $60s.

As for impact on stock price, a total collapse of the gas market would hit them for awhile, but if the companies are well-run at all (and the way they make money, they seem to be), they'll quickly divert resources from the upstream/downstream gasoline path to other emerging and/or more profitable areas.
 
Inflation and growth. The health of modern economies is predicated on moderate amounts of both. You can argue whether that's good or bad, but you can't really argue that it's true.

Another good thing about inflation is that it makes debts cheaper to pay off. Which is to say it effects some egalitarian wealth redistribution between the debtor class and the lender class.

As I tried to explain here years ago, the main idea behind QE was to prompt enough inflation to keep housing and other values from declining even more. What's interesting about how that played out is that the rest of the world was also in pain and were late to try QE, so that we didn't end up paying the inflation penalty that we might have expected.
"Another good thing about inflation"??? There is nothing good about inflation. It is a stealth tax that punishes savers. It is an instrument of war. It steals from people their purchasing power, albeit slowly...in this country anyway. Since 1913, the dollar has lost more than 96% of its purchasing power. When ancient kings were building their empires, they would clip parts of the gold coin and confiscate it to finance further expansion. People took notice and were not happy. This is what they are doing today. Its why the fedgov loves paper money and the Founders abhorred it.

Inflation is the main reason the middle class in this country is being wiped out...and NOT by accident.
In The Economic Consequences of the Peace, Keynes had written:

Lenin is said to have declared that the best way to destroy the Capitalist System was to debauch the currency. By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.



"The way to crush the bourgeoisie (middle class) is to grind them between the millstones of taxation and inflation."
Vladimir Lenin

Lenin would know. The 2nd plank of the Communist Manifesto called for a graduated or progressive income tax. The 5th plank called for a central bank. Central banks inflate currencies. Both evils came to this country in 1913.
 
The last time we had oil that cheap was under Clinton.

Unemployment was under 4%, the dollar was strong, and we were headed toward balanced budgets for as far as the eye could see - or until we elected a Republican president, whichever came first.

Why is everybody so upset about cheap oil?
World currencies need stable commodity prices to remain relevant. When commodities begin to "free fall", money folks get nervous. The world could live with $50/barrel oil.....The Arabs can live (a long time, too) on $10/barrel oil.
 
"Another good thing about inflation"??? There is nothing good about inflation. It is a stealth tax that punishes savers. It is an instrument of war. It steals from people their purchasing power, albeit slowly...in this country anyway. Since 1913, the dollar has lost more than 96% of its purchasing power. When ancient kings were building their empires, they would clip parts of the gold coin and confiscate it to finance further expansion. People took notice and were not happy. This is what they are doing today. Its why the fedgov loves paper money and the Founders abhorred it.

Inflation is the main reason the middle class in this country is being wiped out...and NOT by accident.
In The Economic Consequences of the Peace, Keynes had written:

Lenin is said to have declared that the best way to destroy the Capitalist System was to debauch the currency. By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.



"The way to crush the bourgeoisie (middle class) is to grind them between the millstones of taxation and inflation."
Vladimir Lenin

Lenin would know. The 2nd plank of the Communist Manifesto called for a graduated or progressive income tax. The 5th plank called for a central bank. Central banks inflate currencies. Both evils came to this country in 1913.
There is so much informative content in the above post!
 
"Another good thing about inflation"??? There is nothing good about inflation. It is a stealth tax that punishes savers. It is an instrument of war. It steals from people their purchasing power, albeit slowly...in this country anyway. Since 1913, the dollar has lost more than 96% of its purchasing power. When ancient kings were building their empires, they would clip parts of the gold coin and confiscate it to finance further expansion. People took notice and were not happy. This is what they are doing today. Its why the fedgov loves paper money and the Founders abhorred it.

Inflation is the main reason the middle class in this country is being wiped out...and NOT by accident.
In The Economic Consequences of the Peace, Keynes had written:

Lenin is said to have declared that the best way to destroy the Capitalist System was to debauch the currency. By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.



"The way to crush the bourgeoisie (middle class) is to grind them between the millstones of taxation and inflation."
Vladimir Lenin

Lenin would know. The 2nd plank of the Communist Manifesto called for a graduated or progressive income tax. The 5th plank called for a central bank. Central banks inflate currencies. Both evils came to this country in 1913.

Inflation is necessary for peoples values to increase over time. As bad as deflation is...inflation is probably inversely good. All ships rise on a high tide.
 
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Inflation is necessary for peoples values to increase over time. As bad as deflation is...inflation is probably inversely good. All ships rise on a high tide.
This is a misnomer. The both of them are directly attributable to a centrally planned economy by oligarchal elitists. Example; in the 1920's, our ally, England needed help after WW1. In a misguided scheme to bailout the Brits, the FedRes grew the money supply here at home which brought on inflation. When it started to get out of control, they shrunk (deflated) the money supply by 30% creating an implosion that devastated our economy.

Solution: End the Fed. It causes boom- bust cycles that inflate and deflate. We have 1 increase in rates so far. Look around. Just wait until rounds 2 & 3 arrive.
 
"Another good thing about inflation"??? There is nothing good about inflation. It is a stealth tax that punishes savers. It is an instrument of war. It steals from people their purchasing power, albeit slowly...in this country anyway. Since 1913, the dollar has lost more than 96% of its purchasing power. When ancient kings were building their empires, they would clip parts of the gold coin and confiscate it to finance further expansion. People took notice and were not happy. This is what they are doing today. Its why the fedgov loves paper money and the Founders abhorred it.

Inflation is the main reason the middle class in this country is being wiped out...and NOT by accident.
In The Economic Consequences of the Peace, Keynes had written:

Lenin is said to have declared that the best way to destroy the Capitalist System was to debauch the currency. By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.



"The way to crush the bourgeoisie (middle class) is to grind them between the millstones of taxation and inflation."
Vladimir Lenin

Lenin would know. The 2nd plank of the Communist Manifesto called for a graduated or progressive income tax. The 5th plank called for a central bank. Central banks inflate currencies. Both evils came to this country in 1913.
Ho hum.

Religion, backed by quotes from people you regularly insist are wrong about everything.
 
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Inflation is necessary for peoples values to increase over time. As bad as deflation is...inflation is probably inversely good. All ships rise on a high tide.
Well . . . except for boats with holes in them or for people who don't have a boat.

Those exceptions aside, that's that general idea behind inflation as a "good."

For inflation to be a good, however, requires growth. And that growth has to translate (trickle down) into wage growth (with protections for those on fixed incomes, as well).

Inflation would be dangerous today because growth isn't all that great, not much of it trickles down, and the safety net is already strained.

And yet, without mechanisms to prop up home prices, the economy would have crashed much worse. Your quarter-mill house may not really be worth a quarter million, but if it gets there on paper and that sleight of hand keeps you above water, you are less likely to default. Just one example of how inflation can work to avert worse consequences.
 
Well . . . except for boats with holes in them or for people who don't have a boat.

Those exceptions aside, that's that general idea behind inflation as a "good."

For inflation to be a good, however, requires growth. And that growth has to translate (trickle down) into wage growth (with protections for those on fixed incomes, as well).

Inflation would be dangerous today because growth isn't all that great, not much of it trickles down, and the safety net is already strained.

And yet, without mechanisms to prop up home prices, the economy would have crashed much worse. Your quarter-mill house may not really be worth a quarter million, but if it gets there on paper and that sleight of hand keeps you above water, you are less likely to default. Just one example of how inflation can work to avert worse consequences.
So, inflation, which contributed to the problem and your answer is more of it. Brilliant! You are ridiculously clueless.
 
So, inflation, which contributed to the problem and your answer is more of it. Brilliant! You are ridiculously clueless.
But Nat, please understand that what you preach as economic gospel doesn't work for the masses. Look at the last 30 years to this nation's middle class.........and coincidently...this all occurred with Reagan's tax revision...that was editied by both Clinton and Junior. The middle class lost.....as jobs were wholesaled overseas all in the name of free trade and lower taxes.
 
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Along with reducing unemployment to 5%, dramatically lowering gasoline prices, slashing the deficit, insuring millions....

The only one of those that isn't true is the one you mentioned.

Perhaps that's why you keep needing to sign up with a new handle. Yeah, that's just a guess. But it's probably most people's guess.

Really, because lowering gasoline prices is not an Obama accomplishment. It happened on his watch, but so did the death of Michael Brown. Does Obama get the blame for that?
 
Thanks. Hard to imagine, given your view of the markets.

If an investor is astute enough there is money to be made at any point in the market. You have tripled your net worth in the market. I'm impressed. I wish I was that smart.
 
If an investor is astute enough there is money to be made at any point in the market. You have tripled your net worth in the market. I'm impressed. I wish I was that smart.

But I did not do any market timing, or any tricky trading or stock picking. I essentially bought a core group of EFTs, and then a number of large well capitalized US stocks that tend to pay a decent dividend. No rocket science at all.
 
But I did not do any market timing, or any tricky trading or stock picking. I essentially bought a core group of EFTs, and then a number of large well capitalized US stocks that tend to pay a decent dividend. No rocket science at all.

OK. Sometimes its better to be lucky than good.
 
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