Here’s the deal with the NET and Rutgers.
The dug themselves a pretty big analytics hole to start out the year.
Expected Outcome VS Actual Outcome
And as a subset:
Good wins+ Good Losses
Bad Wins+ Bad Losses
OE+DE
Using Kenpom’s numbers, and they ebb and flow close enough to NET to use as a visual, we can see where Rutgers stumbled, surged some, stumbled, and then surged.
They started out the year #67 on Kenpom.
First game against #313 Lehigh was a 3 point win. That’s analytically a bad loss. So they drop to #71.
The next couple of games were so-so wins, not necessarily bad but enough to drop to #73
The next stretch dug the real hole. Rutgers dropped from #73-#93 during a three game losing streak.
A good Clemson win followed by a very bad loss (EO vs AO) to Illinois dropped them another 5 spots to #98.
Some head way made against Purdue but that was erased by a DD loss to Seton Hall. Now Rutgers sits at #100.
A 16 point win against #354 Maine(Bad win EO VS AO) drops them to #105.
Rutgers makes up considerable ground during the next 3 wins. 2 near 30 point blowouts and a win against Michigan takes them to #87. Rutgers is on the rise….until they aren’t.
Rutgers stubs their analytics toe against PSU losing by 17 dropping them back to #95.
The next two wins against Maryland and Iowa don’t move the needle much(EO vs AO) but they do move to #93
Losing to Minnesota was “expected” but the loss at home to Maryland hurt. Rutgers drops back to #100. 1 step forward, one step back.
Another not great win (2 points) against Nebraska drops them further. The loss at NW didn’t do much but here we are at #104
All of a sudden Rutgers comes alive. The 21 point MSU win(EO vs AO) vaults Rutgers from #104 to #88. A good OSU win moved them to #85. Beating Wisconsin on the road was another huge analytics win. Rutgers now sits at #75. Blowing out Illinois at home moves them all the way to #68
Ans of course none of this happens on a vacuum. Other teams are moving and shaking as well. But, as illustrated, the early games really killed this team. The committee is aware of the injury situation so I’m sure that will be taken into account. But that sort of thing isn’t baked into what we see in the NET
I hope that helped with some of the confusion.
