It's looking increasingly possible that those two will be the nominees. If they are, how does that affect the electoral map?
To win the election, a candidate needs to win at least 270 electoral votes. The general consensus seems to be that there are ten swing states with the Democrats starting off with 217 electoral votes and the Republicans with 191. The ten swings states are:
Florida (29)
Pennsylvania (20)
Ohio (18)
North Carolina (15)
Virginia (13)
Wisconsin (10)
Colorado (9)
Iowa (6)
Nevada (6)
New Hampshire (4)
I doubt any of the 40 non-swing states switch sides regardless of the nominee, although Trump might have a small shot against Sanders in Michigan. It's more likely though that Michigan would stay blue along with Democratic leaning Pennsylvania. North Carolina is a Republican lean and Wisconsin is a Democrat lean. If those leans hold, then the Democrats lead 247-206.
If the Republicans don't win Florida they're toast barring an upset in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, or Michigan. Just to keep things interesting, we'll say Trump wins Florida to make it 247-235.
That leaves Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire. If the Democrats win Ohio and one other state, they either tie (New Hampshire) or win the election. If the Republicans win Ohio AND Virginia, they still need one more of the swing states to go their way in order to win.
To win the election, a candidate needs to win at least 270 electoral votes. The general consensus seems to be that there are ten swing states with the Democrats starting off with 217 electoral votes and the Republicans with 191. The ten swings states are:
Florida (29)
Pennsylvania (20)
Ohio (18)
North Carolina (15)
Virginia (13)
Wisconsin (10)
Colorado (9)
Iowa (6)
Nevada (6)
New Hampshire (4)
I doubt any of the 40 non-swing states switch sides regardless of the nominee, although Trump might have a small shot against Sanders in Michigan. It's more likely though that Michigan would stay blue along with Democratic leaning Pennsylvania. North Carolina is a Republican lean and Wisconsin is a Democrat lean. If those leans hold, then the Democrats lead 247-206.
If the Republicans don't win Florida they're toast barring an upset in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, or Michigan. Just to keep things interesting, we'll say Trump wins Florida to make it 247-235.
That leaves Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire. If the Democrats win Ohio and one other state, they either tie (New Hampshire) or win the election. If the Republicans win Ohio AND Virginia, they still need one more of the swing states to go their way in order to win.
