Trump loses NC he's gunna dispise black people more than he already does. Mark Robinson really fuqed him over.
I'm predicting 273 - 264 Harris.
- Thread starter Jimmy McGill
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270 to win is calling 6 toss up states. Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, PA, NC, GA.
If this is truly the case, with PA being 19 points it really goes through there.
If this is truly the case, with PA being 19 points it really goes through there.
This person, mostly just a Twitter rando into this, articulates what I'm thinking pretty well...I'm just having a really hard time not reading the big improvement in early voting by Republicans as a positive. I know it doesn't have to be, but given it's the one solid data point we know, it's really hard to dismiss that given the closeness of these elections.
Polls: Polls are obviously mixed, though better for Trump than either of the prior presidential elections. They’re almost certainly somewhat “fixed” (or better) from the prior Trump under-sampling given that it was Trump’s numbers often showing up in the lower 40’s then that drove much of the disparity. They’re very tight now with Trump’s historical numbers. Could they have gone the other way and heavily overrepresented Trump on average? Sure, but the next topic makes me think that’s not happening to any material extent.
Early Vote: This is largely what’s driving my Trump EC pick. Registered republicans are pushing harder in early voting largely because of 2020/2022 and the Trump campaign + surrogates fully encouraging it now. So, the fact that R’s are a higher percentage of the early/mail vote in the swing states than they were in 2020 (or 2022) isn’t surprising. And mathematics dictates that the other side of that fraction (the Dems’ share of EV compared to the prior two elections) will be smaller if they didn’t make an *additional* push for EV compared to prior cycles.
It also means that the “cannibalization” conversation that folks are having is true to an extent. The R share of ED vote won’t be as high in many of the swing states where they’ve shifted more dramatically in the EV. The people that think PA will be some kind of mega Trump blowout because he was down 1.1M in 2020 (looking at [D – R] early votes) and is now only in the low 400Ks aren’t doing folks any favors. But the Dems have done well previously with the realization that a banked vote is a vote, while even a 99% chance of an ED vote isn’t yet a vote.
But here’s the reason I’m reading a bit more into the early vote tea leaves: the registered Republican share of no- and low-propensity voters is higher than the overall D/R early-vote split in every single swing state that has data for it. Take PA, for example. As of this morning’s data, The D/R split is D+22.9%. But the latest data for voters who haven’t voted in the last three general elections shows a split of just D+13.3%. So, R’s are moving a higher relative share of those voters to the early vote. The same holds true in AZ, NC, and NV.
So, we have a situation where R’s have come out more heavily in the EV in the swing states, and lower-propensity R voters have come out even more as a percentage than that. That feels like it could be *some* proxy for voter energy. Given how razor thin the margins were in the blue wall last time, this is what leads me to believe that PA & WI get picked off this time, while the Sun Belt also goes R for all four.
Other: Dobbs, J6, GOTV…all of these are certainly part of the mix and seem to tend toward Harris. And if I’m wrong by late tomorrow night or Wednesday, I’m guessing that Dobbs & day-of/day-before GOTV efforts were the reason. I just don’t know why those wouldn’t have manifested more fully in the polls or early vote throughout though. Many are talking about registered “Others” and even R’s breaking much more for Harris than did for D’s in prior cycles. Maybe so, but I would have expected to see that push in the zero-voter Dems in the swing states. Why are the Others and R’s motivated to come out and vote D in early voting, but not D’s to the same extent? I would think we’d see it in the D side first, dragging up the Others in that case (and even the crossover R’s). Anyway, what do I know.I don’t think I’d be surprised by any result in the seven swing states (other than any swing state being a 5%+ romp). But given all the data, I think it’s the map below.
Polls: Polls are obviously mixed, though better for Trump than either of the prior presidential elections. They’re almost certainly somewhat “fixed” (or better) from the prior Trump under-sampling given that it was Trump’s numbers often showing up in the lower 40’s then that drove much of the disparity. They’re very tight now with Trump’s historical numbers. Could they have gone the other way and heavily overrepresented Trump on average? Sure, but the next topic makes me think that’s not happening to any material extent.
Early Vote: This is largely what’s driving my Trump EC pick. Registered republicans are pushing harder in early voting largely because of 2020/2022 and the Trump campaign + surrogates fully encouraging it now. So, the fact that R’s are a higher percentage of the early/mail vote in the swing states than they were in 2020 (or 2022) isn’t surprising. And mathematics dictates that the other side of that fraction (the Dems’ share of EV compared to the prior two elections) will be smaller if they didn’t make an *additional* push for EV compared to prior cycles.
It also means that the “cannibalization” conversation that folks are having is true to an extent. The R share of ED vote won’t be as high in many of the swing states where they’ve shifted more dramatically in the EV. The people that think PA will be some kind of mega Trump blowout because he was down 1.1M in 2020 (looking at [D – R] early votes) and is now only in the low 400Ks aren’t doing folks any favors. But the Dems have done well previously with the realization that a banked vote is a vote, while even a 99% chance of an ED vote isn’t yet a vote.
But here’s the reason I’m reading a bit more into the early vote tea leaves: the registered Republican share of no- and low-propensity voters is higher than the overall D/R early-vote split in every single swing state that has data for it. Take PA, for example. As of this morning’s data, The D/R split is D+22.9%. But the latest data for voters who haven’t voted in the last three general elections shows a split of just D+13.3%. So, R’s are moving a higher relative share of those voters to the early vote. The same holds true in AZ, NC, and NV.
So, we have a situation where R’s have come out more heavily in the EV in the swing states, and lower-propensity R voters have come out even more as a percentage than that. That feels like it could be *some* proxy for voter energy. Given how razor thin the margins were in the blue wall last time, this is what leads me to believe that PA & WI get picked off this time, while the Sun Belt also goes R for all four.
Other: Dobbs, J6, GOTV…all of these are certainly part of the mix and seem to tend toward Harris. And if I’m wrong by late tomorrow night or Wednesday, I’m guessing that Dobbs & day-of/day-before GOTV efforts were the reason. I just don’t know why those wouldn’t have manifested more fully in the polls or early vote throughout though. Many are talking about registered “Others” and even R’s breaking much more for Harris than did for D’s in prior cycles. Maybe so, but I would have expected to see that push in the zero-voter Dems in the swing states. Why are the Others and R’s motivated to come out and vote D in early voting, but not D’s to the same extent? I would think we’d see it in the D side first, dragging up the Others in that case (and even the crossover R’s). Anyway, what do I know.I don’t think I’d be surprised by any result in the seven swing states (other than any swing state being a 5%+ romp). But given all the data, I think it’s the map below.
- Sep 13, 2002
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That's what's so dumb about his argument - he acts like Biden just walked down to the laundromat and grabbed the first black lady he could find to be VP rather than vetting hundreds of qualified candidates then PREFERING one that happens to be an accomplished black lady.
well if you insist, you can look at my follow up post and go to her twitter link; beyond that is up to you.
I have no freaking idea who's gonna win I think there are good arguments for both Harris and Trump winning decisively but who knows.
Ann Selzer though has the opportunity to become the greatest prognosticator of all-time if Harris wins Iowa or it's even close.
Ann Selzer though has the opportunity to become the greatest prognosticator of all-time if Harris wins Iowa or it's even close.
One of the scenarios I have envisioned is both candidates needing to win Pennsylvania to get over the 270 threshold and Pennsylvania being so close that there will be endless lawsuits and accusations of fraud which will cause this presidential election to be tied up in the courts for god knows how long.
This has the potential to get real ugly real fast. Why presidential elections should still come down to one or two states deciding everything is a total mystery to me. 2024 might be 100x worse than 2000. And I highly doubt Trump grows a beard and hides in the woods should he lose.
Buckle up.
certainly feasible, and note that in the scenario that you describe, it doesn't help that within pa itself, there are basically two different states. i suppose the only worse might be tennessee, where there are essentially three different states.
A decent thread of what to be watching for as things close tonight...this account is a pretty good non-partisan/moderate political junkie feed by the way. I recommend it for anyone who is into politics/political science, but not opinion. She highlights a lot of Euro politics as well, which can be interesting.
I predict she wins all the Swing States Biden did but by larger margin and adds North Carolina. Iowa, Texas, Ohio she is close but not cigar. Florida still 3-4 percent loss.
If it's that close the SCOTUS will give Trump the win just like they did Bush.
We will have a president. However if it's that close the backlash will probably be 1000 times worse than 2000. The SCOTUS has been much more nakedly political in favor of Trump than it was in 2000. The animosity between the groups far worse.
That is honestly a scenario where we might have essentially a low intensity civil war happening. A high intensity civil war like the first one isn't likely to happen. But constant and never ending politically motivated violence by both sides could be in the cards.
You love to make this argument as tho skin color was the only thing that was considered.
Please define what qualifies one to be president. Kamala has been a prosecutor, attorney general for California and then senator prior to be the VP. That doesn’t make her qualified?
I also hope this doesnt play out. I hope one candidate wins decisively.
By what would you call a popular vote blowout?
Do be fair if she doesn't win by 2 or 3 percent in the popular vote she is more likely than not to lose the EC. But if she wins the popular vote by more than that she likely wins the EC.
But 2 or 3 percent isn't a blowout.
I think it's stupid that one candidate is essentially at a disadvantage starting off due to the EC but that's where we are in this country and the Republicans love it because it's the only way they win national elections.
I'm going with Harris 308 Trump 230. I don't think it's going to be as close as so many think.
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It seems unlikely that she wins by that much (which would turnout to like a 7% win) but loses.
However it is scary that it's possible.
Republicans would then rid themselves of Trumpism and get back to normalcy and the MAGA can slither back to their holes of STFU.
MAGA's primary votes will likely ensure that they always run the Republican party.
That's why I don't think Trump is done if he loses this election. He's likely the nominee for 2028 at age 82. And if he loses that one the nominee for 2032. And I do think MAGA will transfer to Don Jr. when Trump decides to quit running or dies.
Not quite correct...
WashingtonCNN —
Presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden said Monday he was considering four Black women to be his running mate, and has been receiving extensive vetting briefings about each potential candidate.
“I am not committed to naming any (of the potential candidates), but the people I’ve named, and among them there are four Black women,” Biden told MSNBC’s Joy Reid on “The ReidOut.”
He said he is getting a “two-hour vetting report” on each of his potential picks, and that he and his team have gone through “about four candidates” so far. “Then, when I get all the vetting done of all the candidates, then I’m going to narrow the list, and then we’ll see. And then I’m going to have personal discussions with each of the candidates who are left and make a decision,” Biden said.
Biden is considering a broad tier of candidates to be his running mate, after pledging earlier this year to pick a woman for the job. CNN previously reported that Sen. Kamala Harris of California, Rep. Val Demings of Florida, Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, former Obama administration national security adviser Susan Rice and Rep. Karen Bass of California are among the Black women being considered.
And Biden won convincingly.
Add another 5 million, and it will be an even bigger victory for Kamala.
Kamala out performs the polling by 3-4% and wins most of the swing states, driven by women and young people outvoting old white men.
Kamala 303
Orange turd 235
www.270towin.com
Kamala 303
Orange turd 235
270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map
Create your own forecast for the 2024 presidential election
www.270towin.com
In 2000, it took until December to get it resolved.
I agree the SCOTUS will give it to Trump eventually, but the backlash will be brutal.
Exactly. How was Trump was qualified for 2016, having never sat in a public office of any kind?
You also forgot that KH presided over the Senate. This is inherent to being the Vice President but she has cast the most tie breaking votes in US history. I'm presuming she has a good sense for how that government body is run.
- Sep 13, 2002
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Yeah, but she's black.
What is worse is that Trump will pull the trigger on deploying the military as soon as he can against Americans which will only ramp up the backlash.
I think this is pretty spot on. Republicans finally got Roe vs Wade struck down and hell has no fury like a women scorned. Abortion is on the ballot in AZ and Nevada. Trump is going to get crushed there. Kansas set the model for this. Counties that votes 90% for Trump dropped to 60% when abortion was on the ballot. These are red counties like NW Iowa. I predict Kamala gets every swing state except for Georgia. Kamala by a margin that won't be close. These polls don't figure in those who are likely to vote, vote for the first time, or return to voting. Women and young people are going to come out in droves. Blue wave type material.Kamala out performs the polling by 3-4% and wins most of the swing states, driven by women and young people outvoting old white men.
Kamala 303
Orange turd 235
270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map
Create your own forecast for the 2024 presidential election
Yeah, but she's Indian (SE Asian) too. You ever met one that doesn't get stuff done?
- Sep 13, 2002
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