I just don't think we have the horses to go on a run post bad loss like we did in 2002. Some of that is self preservation as I don't want to get my hopes up. This team sleep walked last weekend and I've seen this movie before.
So will the rest of this season mirror 2002 or 2010?
- Thread starter General Tso
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Eight wins or better would be good.
No real information to back it but it just appeared this team doesn't have the horses I was expecting them too.
No real information to back it but it just appeared this team doesn't have the horses I was expecting them too.
It's easy to talk in the off season how good our players are and this and that but when it comes down to going up against other guys and teams a lot of them turn out to be rather pedestrian. I sure hope it turns out like 02 (other than the orange bowl) but who knows. Lose Saturday and it won't look good.
I was thinking about this today as well...I dont think it will mirror either, really. I think we drop one to Michigan, and one to either Wisconsin or Nebraska. 3 losses...
2002, Brad Banks had more balls slip through his fingers, than Elton John, in that Iowa State game.
That was a fluke.
Last Saturday, we got dominated at the line of scrimmage, and NDSU didn't do anything fancy.
Sorry, this upcoming season will be 2010 2.0.
Amazing how Ferentz can't win with expectations.
That was a fluke.
Last Saturday, we got dominated at the line of scrimmage, and NDSU didn't do anything fancy.
Sorry, this upcoming season will be 2010 2.0.
Amazing how Ferentz can't win with expectations.
It's not necessarily about talent - the 2010 arguably had more talent than the 2002 team. Like all Ferentz teams, it usually comes down to how well we do in close games.
In 2002 we did blow a lot of teams out, but we also only beat Miami Ohio by 5, beat PSU in overtime, and had a great comeback to beat Purdue by 3. In 2010 we were 1-5 in games decided by one score or less (not including the bowl game) and in all but 1 of those games we held the lead in the 4th quarter.
My biggest concern with this team is rush defense. I didn't think that would be an issue this year, but we miss Fisher and Lomax more than I expected. Our offense stunk against NDSU, but they looked really good in the first two games. I expect them to rebound, especially considering we expect to get Welsh and Daniels back soon.
I expect this team to fall somewhere in the middle of the 2002 and 2010 teams, and I still think we have as good of a chance in the Big 10 West as anyone.
In 2002 we did blow a lot of teams out, but we also only beat Miami Ohio by 5, beat PSU in overtime, and had a great comeback to beat Purdue by 3. In 2010 we were 1-5 in games decided by one score or less (not including the bowl game) and in all but 1 of those games we held the lead in the 4th quarter.
My biggest concern with this team is rush defense. I didn't think that would be an issue this year, but we miss Fisher and Lomax more than I expected. Our offense stunk against NDSU, but they looked really good in the first two games. I expect them to rebound, especially considering we expect to get Welsh and Daniels back soon.
I expect this team to fall somewhere in the middle of the 2002 and 2010 teams, and I still think we have as good of a chance in the Big 10 West as anyone.
I wasn't as willing to write off the beatdown against stanford as some were, therefore not nearly as optimistic prior to the season's start. Last year was a combination of a weak schedule, breaks going their way in games, and timely great play. They couldn't have gone 12-0 without good play, no doubt. But, they also wouldn't have gone 12-0 without those other factors.
I did think 10-2 was in reach this year. Adjusting that downward now to a 40% shot at 9-3.
8-4 seems more likely.
Lose this weekend and who knows how far they fall.
I did think 10-2 was in reach this year. Adjusting that downward now to a 40% shot at 9-3.
8-4 seems more likely.
Lose this weekend and who knows how far they fall.
I think it depends on "luck" to be honest. Lets be honest last year Iowa was a 57yd field goal (no many in college), Fumbled snap on the 1yd line (wisky), and a 4th &1 from losing some close games (ISU & Pitt). Iowa had luck on their side last year and they were able to take it and run with it.
In 2009 you could also say that "luck was on their side" with the pinball int by sash, the blocked punt by Clayborn, 2 blocked FG's vs UNI, close game vs Arkansas St, Last second TD vs MSU (DB lined up outside on the goalie?) and other odd plays that year.
In 2010 luck was not our side. We had several bad breaks and close games that they could not finish (except Mizzou). They had leads in the 4th quarter and lost them all. It sucks, but sometimes you need a little luck to be successful. That year Iowa had zero luck and it showed.
I think this team is just as good as the 2010 team, but they need to finish the games. They need to gamble and put teams away when they are up. Don't settle for trying to run the clock out and punting. You have to put teams away when you have the chance. Iowa also has to win the kicking game and special teams every game. This team can still win the Big Ten and get to a New Years Day 6 bowl. But they have a lot of work ahead of them. They have zero room for error the rest of the way.
In 2009 you could also say that "luck was on their side" with the pinball int by sash, the blocked punt by Clayborn, 2 blocked FG's vs UNI, close game vs Arkansas St, Last second TD vs MSU (DB lined up outside on the goalie?) and other odd plays that year.
In 2010 luck was not our side. We had several bad breaks and close games that they could not finish (except Mizzou). They had leads in the 4th quarter and lost them all. It sucks, but sometimes you need a little luck to be successful. That year Iowa had zero luck and it showed.
I think this team is just as good as the 2010 team, but they need to finish the games. They need to gamble and put teams away when they are up. Don't settle for trying to run the clock out and punting. You have to put teams away when you have the chance. Iowa also has to win the kicking game and special teams every game. This team can still win the Big Ten and get to a New Years Day 6 bowl. But they have a lot of work ahead of them. They have zero room for error the rest of the way.
Two points I am mostly in agreement with and want to highlight:
"They need to gamble and put teams away when they are up. Don't settle for trying to run the clock out and punting."- This has come up more than once with KF teams. If they get up, then they settle back into a prevent offense as it were and just try to run the clock. Unless it's victory formation time, I hope they keep the playbook open and plan to score on every possession.
"They have zero room for error the rest of the way."- I don't know about zero, but I get where you are going with this. Iowa does not have talent superiority across the board versus most of their competition. Their margin for error is thin most of the time. This is not 'bama or tosu; not even close. They aren't going to "out athlete" most opponents. They can't get away with sloppy technique, missed assignments, mental errors, out of position, etc. and make up for it with superior speed/quickness/strength.
In the two NFL drafts after the 2010 football season, Iowa graduated 12 players to the NFL draft that were major contributors to the 2010 team. The 2002 team had 9-position players and Nate Kaeding selected in the two NFL drafts after the 2002 season.
That's not dispositive evidence, but having more NFL draft picks certainly lends credibility to arguing that the 2010 team may have had more talent.
I don't expect it to mirror either really but if I had to choose, I would for sure say 2010. I just don't say any way this team goes undefeated in the B1G as they did in 2002. I don't expect 4 B1G losses as in 2010 but it is definitely possible. It could be a pretty tough stretch starting with the Wisconsin game. If we lose to Rutgers or Northwestern, we may have a collapse and be in for a long season.
Hey we should totally set up to high five, and then at the last second............I can kick you right in the nut sack, because it's not gonna feel any worse than Iowa losing, right friend?
Our last two seasons with high expectations (2005, 2010) involved a huge September turd, followed by crushingly disappointing Big Ten play. I had a bad feeling coming into 2016, and now I feel worse.
This is exactly what I was thinking. If these guys play tomorrow we will all have a better guess.
2004 was another year that started horribly (blowout loss to ASU, another loss to Michigan) and then ended up pretty OK. 2009 was somewhat similar, as we needed not one but two blocked field goals to beat UNI and then also looked really bad against Arkansas State before eventually getting it figured out. Or 2008 when we were only 5-4 and coming off a pretty disappointing loss to Illinois before turning it around against a PSU team that might have made the national title game if they beat us.
I could go on as basically every year other than 2015 we had some early losses/struggles and thus there are multiple examples of both good and bad seasons that started off shaky. I guess the only conclusion is it's too soon to tell.
I could go on as basically every year other than 2015 we had some early losses/struggles and thus there are multiple examples of both good and bad seasons that started off shaky. I guess the only conclusion is it's too soon to tell.
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