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Spring is here Boyz

Reed had tweeted earlier this week that the tornado/severe storm outlook for the coming weeks is something he hasn't seen in over 10 years. It'll be interesting.
Dumb hype. Another strong system set to roll through Tuesday and then it looks kinda boring for a bit. Not sure that system will pull stuff far enough north to affect us in E IA
 
Dumb hype. Another strong system set to roll through Tuesday and then it looks kinda boring for a bit. Not sure that system will pull stuff far enough north to affect us in E IA
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If you watch that Discovery Show, Storm Chasers, there's an episode with Ms. Z and Reed. Ironically, Reed's driver died of a drug o/d on a gay cruise. Weird.
 
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I'm curious if the NWS will at some point go "moderate risk" with their forecast - maybe as soon as tomorrow morning. Hell, we're at enhanced right now and even that doesn't happen all that much. They go moderate and usually that's when they're certain that it's dirt sniffin' and goin' green time.

Friday morning, you weather nerds will want to pull up a YT channel called "Convective Chronicles". He'll no doubt have a morning setup update on what's coming, and he pretty much has nailed just about every major system down south so far the past couple months from a location standpoint. VERY nerdy stuff, but he's pretty good at putting out a high level summary on when/where things should pop.

There's going to be storm chasers swarming all over eastern Iowa Friday...
 
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Looks like the bubble will be put to the test tomorrow.

I've read up on this a bit this morning - to me, it seems the experts believe that it will take time for things to ramp up and say eastern Iowa might be in for more of a large hail/high wind thing. Then as the line races across the Mississippi into extreme western Illinois, that's where the tornado threat should be the highest given it'll be roughly peak daytime heating.

We might get somewhat lucky out of this hopefully. But yeah, the QC seems to be the center of the dart board.

Right now I'm more concerned about how school districts react to tomorrow morning's update/predictions. Driving busloads full of kids home right when this thing is supposed to sweep through doesn't sound like a whole lot of fun.

I can see a wave of 2 hour early releases across eastern Iowa tomorrow...
 
Haven't watched this yet, but this was what I was referring to earlier. He may post one tomorrow morning also, but I'd bet he's also going to be out chasing one of the two hatched zones (believe he lives in Norman OK).

VERY nerdy stuff. But, he knows tornados/predictions about as well as any expert I've ever seen.

 
NWS morning narrative didn't change much. They seem to think if Iowa's going to get tornados the best spot is probably along and south of I80 - but the better chances should be once it crosses into Illinois. They also hint at maybe a second line forming after the first rolls through but that's iffy.

One thing I noticed too...they said if the sun happens to pop out at some point today after the overnight storms clear out, "game on". They also emphasized that given the speed of this system and any discreet cells that form, it'd be a great idea to be in a place where you can shelter easily and quickly. "If you hear thunder, it's already too late".

The Convective Chronicles guy last night (linked above) had a couple past storms with very similar profiles pulled up and things didn't blow up huge in Iowa with those - albeit with the caveat that one of them in 2015 dropped a famous tornado in northern Illinois later on in the day and also that those systems didn't have the massive pieces of the overall puzzle this one has.


We will see obviously. Be careful out there today, folks.
 
NWS morning narrative didn't change much. They seem to think if Iowa's going to get tornados the best spot is probably along and south of I80 - but the better chances should be once it crosses into Illinois. They also hint at maybe a second line forming after the first rolls through but that's iffy.

One thing I noticed too...they said if the sun happens to pop out at some point today after the overnight storms clear out, "game on". They also emphasized that given the speed of this system and any discreet cells that form, it'd be a great idea to be in a place where you can shelter easily and quickly. "If you hear thunder, it's already too late".

The Convective Chronicles guy last night (linked above) had a couple past storms with very similar profiles pulled up and things didn't blow up huge in Iowa with those - albeit with the caveat that one of them in 2015 dropped a famous tornado in northern Illinois later on in the day and also that those systems didn't have the massive pieces of the overall puzzle this one has.


We will see obviously. Be careful out there today, folks.
The sun is out in Cedar Falls, that’s for damn sure.
 
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Sounds like some businesses in CR are closing early/not opening at all this afternoon in preparation for the round of storms.
 
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