Step back from the ledge
- Thread starter CP84
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I don't think we are bad but rather an average team that has had a stretch of bad play. At seasons end we are a bit better record wise than most thought and we can win a first round game or we can lose. I don't think we were ever great but we had a stretch of playing great ball.
Agree, Interesting how exceptional performance of a team can lead to immense criticism when they are unable to sustain it.
It's not a matter of not sustaining it, it's a matter of a total meltdown. They finished 2-7 over the final 9 games. If they finished 5-4 or even 4-5, you might have a point, but not 2-7. That's abysmal.
We aren't talking about a team that was hit with some devastating injury(s). They have been 100% healthy over this losing stretch. We are talking about a team with 4 senior starters, and 1 junior starter. All of them have played a ton of starting minutes throughout their career. You should not see this giant choke job, or meltdown, with a team with this much experience. They should know how to play through a little adversity and should have plenty of leadership to help them through this difficult time. Instead, we've seen a team look like they'd struggle to beat a good DII right now. The players look lost, the head coach looks lost.
It's not like they are getting beat by some bad breaks or teams just shooting lights out. The defense has been awful, giving up way too many easy buckets and open looks. The offense has been awful, with guys standing around and some brutal shooting by pretty much everyone outside of Jok and Uhl (and even they've had plenty of bad games). Hell, they couldn't even hold onto the ball against Ill, something like 17 TO's. I think that was a season high, or near it. This team looks like one who is proudly holding up the white flag of surrender, and praying this season will end very soon.
Not sure if we're watching the same games, teams have been shooting lights out against Iowa. Agree with the team shooting slump which has cost Iowa these losses. Uthoff has been shooting better than Uhl so I don't know what you're seeing in him. However...the Illinois game was definitely the worst game they played all year which is cause for concern but does't mean they have given up on the season. I can't remember what famous coach said this but it's true especially in basketball. "The team I have today is not the team I had yesterday or the team I'll have tomorrow". I'm going to wait until after the "Big Dance" before I make my final judgement on this team.
Teams seem to shoot well against Iowa, I think we can all agree on that. Call it hot shooting if you want, but something happens over and over, you need to look for something in common. The common thing would be the Iowa defense and I don't think anyone is feeling that Iowa has been playing good defense on a regular basis. And those few times when we do force a bad shot, we are not doing a good job rebounding
I've been trying to tell everyone on these threads the one thing in common with these losses is the shooting but it seems only a few get it! Let me try this...Iowa is the #23 ranked defensive team in 3 point shooting percentage at 31% and the #34 ranked offensive 3 point shooting team at 38%. So Iowa is neither bad defensively or bad offensively on 3 point shooting right? In all the recent losses the opponents shot better than 31% percent and Iowa shot below 38% from 3 point range. Iowa has lost those games by an average of only 4 points so if the opponent would have missed just one 3 pointer and Iowa would have made just one more 3 pointer that would be a 6 point swing and this board would not be blowing up. If Iowa can end their shooting slump then they're a very dangerous team here forward.
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Sorry, meant Uthoff, not Uhl. Giving up wide open shots, uncontested layups and dunks, is not "hot shooting", it's bad defense, and that's what Iowa has been playing more often than not over the last month+.
Well, I hope the team from Jan shows up during the tournament but I'm not optimistic.
Those rankings are meaningless "now" or as to how the team is playing now. They probably were much higher in Jan. The team has played poorly, both offensively and defensively for over a month. We aren't talking about a bad 3 game stretch. Looking at numbers that are based from the team's play in Nov-Jan is fools gold. How is the team playing now? Iowa is terrible 3 pt shooting now, outside of Jok and Uthoff. Early in the season, EVERYONE was making 3's. Now, everyone is regressing to the mean to where their career avg is and those numbers aren't good.
You are making the same error people make when they say if Player A wouldn't have gotten thrown out stealing then the team would have had 2 runs, after the next batter hits a HR. That is a fallacy. You don't know how the pitcher would have pitched the batter with the runner on base.
You can say, "if Iowa would have hit just one more 3 pointer, etc...". Well, how about carrying that out the other way? If the opponent would have hit 1-2 more 3 pointers they would have won by 7 or 10 pts. Maybe they would have stepped on the gas pedal more if they needed. Who knows? It's stupid to play the "what if" game. Iowa got beat and played terrible basketball against some pretty bad teams. They were lucky to be playing Purdue and MSU twice in Jan when they were playing their best basketball or they might not even be playing in the NCAA tournament.
Iowa isn't in a shooting slump, they don't have good shooters outside of Uthoff and Jok. MG is a poor outside shooter, AC is not a very good shooter and needs to be wide open to get his shot off, and Uhl and the bench have cooled off to their likely norms. Uhl's shot is uglier than MG's and it's hard to have an uglier shot than MG. Baer is a walkon, who started out like a house on fire, but he was a walk-on for a reason. Be happy with what he's already contributed this year, it's much more than anyone dreamed. Who on their bench is a good shooter? Ellingson? This might have been a decent shooting team if Jones didn't get hurt. Then you could have had 3 legit shooters, but now teams no, keep Jok and Uthoff from hitting 3's and you shut down Iowa.
I like Fran the coach. Fran the recruiter / personnel manager, still have my doubts. The fact that in Fran's 6th year with 'his' senior class Iowa was expected to finish 9th is a bit telling. Granted, the team surpassed expectations, so props to team and Fran.
Losses are one thing, but when every loss is in the last 5 minutes of the game because we cannot score, that is a pattern. We can't score because we have no 1:1 matchups we can win. Sure Uthoff can post a smaller guy up, but post-Maryland, teams have smothered him. Jok has a quick release, but is negated when you can't slide a piece of paper between him and the defender. Throw in a post that is only effective slipping screens for uncontested layups and you put a ton of pressure on the guards to score.
We have all seen the last second buzzer beaters the past two weeks on ESPN. How many came off elaborate screening actions or intricate sets? None that I saw. I saw individual players, mainly guards, get past their guy and either kick or score. We just don't have, and haven't had, that dynamic since Marble. Case in point look at Wichita State without Vanfleet vs. with him. I am not going down the 'If Ulis would have come here' path because that is a very unlikely scenario ever at Iowa. A Woolridge, Val Barnes, even Bryce Cartwright type guard would have helped tremendously this year. Either a guy with another gear or some street game is a hole Fran needs fill.
Losses are one thing, but when every loss is in the last 5 minutes of the game because we cannot score, that is a pattern. We can't score because we have no 1:1 matchups we can win. Sure Uthoff can post a smaller guy up, but post-Maryland, teams have smothered him. Jok has a quick release, but is negated when you can't slide a piece of paper between him and the defender. Throw in a post that is only effective slipping screens for uncontested layups and you put a ton of pressure on the guards to score.
We have all seen the last second buzzer beaters the past two weeks on ESPN. How many came off elaborate screening actions or intricate sets? None that I saw. I saw individual players, mainly guards, get past their guy and either kick or score. We just don't have, and haven't had, that dynamic since Marble. Case in point look at Wichita State without Vanfleet vs. with him. I am not going down the 'If Ulis would have come here' path because that is a very unlikely scenario ever at Iowa. A Woolridge, Val Barnes, even Bryce Cartwright type guard would have helped tremendously this year. Either a guy with another gear or some street game is a hole Fran needs fill.
Sorry but saying Iowa is not in a shooting slump is just wrong according to the numbers. When player's shots are not dropping they all look like bad shooters. I'm a stat guy and believe numbers don't lie, will agree to disagree.
If you are a stat guy then you understand Iowa was shooting at unsustainable levels early in the season. Jok and Uthoff have had some off games, and I'll give you that but part of it is due to defenses making adjustments and making it much tougher for them to score. MG is not a good shooter, just look at his career numbers. AC is not a real good shooter, and he's strictly a set shooter. Uhl is not a good shooter. Look at his shooting stroke and it's amazing he makes any outside shot. Go back to Kenyon Murray's comments posted on here. Murray said when you get to this time of the seasons, teams have seen you play and they make defensive adjustments, so your 3rd and 4th players have to step up. They haven't. If Uthoff or Jok don't go off with a huge games, Iowa doesn't win.
You got fooled by the hot start from some of these guys and it led you to believe they are good shooters when they really aren't. It's like Darwin Barney hitting .400 in April. Barney was a .240 hitter, so no matter what he did in Apr was just an illusion as to his true ability as a hitter.
I asked him in another thread how many outside shots Clemmons and Gesell hit during that run. The MSU game where Gesell scored 25 points most of those points where layups. If you look at the stats they lie and say he shot the ball well. I know for a fact that all of Gesell's points in the OSU game where either layups or free throws. When teams back off and sag off of you it's harder to get layups and get in the lane. This is why I think Iowa will beat Temple. I think Temple will ball pressure Sapp and Gesell and not sag off of them. So those two will be able to get to the rim and do damage. Which is what was happening earlier in the year. That's why the shooting percentages where higher. The bad shooters where getting shots at the rim. Now the bad shooters aren't getting shots at the rim and are unable to get the penetration like they did earlier in the year. That is making the offense stagnant because Gesell and Clemmons don't have the ability to knock down offensive shots when teams sag off of them. Which makes me wonder why Fran continues to play them together.
I didn't get fooled by the hot start. I simple put forth hard facts in the form of SEASON LONG 3 point shooting stats. Do numbers fluctuate during the season? Of course they do. Iowa was beating teams by an average of 12 points a game was that sustainable? The fact is Iowa has yet to be blown out of a game losing by an average of only 4 points which means statistically only 1 or 2 shots falling could mean 4 or 5 losses turn into wins. I'm not going to go back and forth with you arguing my point.
Yes, he's arguing that Iowa was 1-2 buckets and Iowa wins those games. It doesn't work that way. What if's are for losers. A couple more buckets by the opponents and they get blown out in those games. They are regressing to the mean with their shooting. All he has to do is look at their career shooting pct. Iowa is not a good shooting team (outside of Uthoff and Jok) and add to that point the bench sucks now, and gives them no offense, and it's not a recipe for winning.
Agree, Mike and AC were getting more layups earlier but guys like Uthoff and Jok were also getting wide open looks from outside. Now teams know, just guard Uthoff and Jok and you shut down Iowa. Baer and Uhl came down to earth, MG has never been a good outsider shooter, and AC is so slow getting off his shot he has to be wide open to shoot a 3 ball.
