The Midwestern economy improved slightly during January, according to the latest Creighton University survey, but Iowa’s economy continued to struggle.
Creighton economist Ernie Goss says supply managers are fearful new tariffs will hurt business, and in anticipation, many firms increased inventory levels during January and boosted imports to a record high. For only the third time since last July, Goss says the overall Business Conditions Index climbed above growth neutral.
“It’s much like what the Federal Reserve had to say last week,” Goss says. “The economy is doing okay, but it’s skimming like a stone, skimming across the water. It goes below the water and above the water, below the water, above the water. That’s the way the manufacturing economy in Mid America is doing, according to our survey.”
The survey is based on a zero-to-100 scale, with 50 being growth neutral. For January, Iowa’s economy hit a regional low of 43.1, which was up from December’s score of 40.8. Still, Goss says more employers in the region added to their workforces during the month.
“Hiring, wow, it went up above growth neutral, and this is the first time in some time it’s risen above growth neutral,” Goss says. “We’ve had almost a year of below growth neutral readings, and it rose to 51.1 and that’s up from December’s 46.4 and that’s almost, I won’t call it great news, but it was good news compared to what we’ve been seeing.”
For a fourth straight month, Goss says the wholesale price inflation gauge rose, but it continues to indicate modest inflation. Because of that, he expects the Federal Reserve to pause on any interest rate change at its next meeting in mid-March.
Despite weak manufacturing employment readings over the past year, Goss says about one in five firms reported labor shortages.
“The nation’s lost for 2024 about 93,000 jobs, and that’s about eight-tenths of 1%,” Goss says. “Our Mid America region lost about 7,900 jobs in the year, and that’s about five-tenths of 1%.”
According to the latest U.S. International Trade Administration data, Iowa experienced a $1.5 billion drop in 2024 year-to-date manufacturing exports compared to the same period in 2023 for a 9.6% decline.
www.radioiowa.com
Creighton economist Ernie Goss says supply managers are fearful new tariffs will hurt business, and in anticipation, many firms increased inventory levels during January and boosted imports to a record high. For only the third time since last July, Goss says the overall Business Conditions Index climbed above growth neutral.
“It’s much like what the Federal Reserve had to say last week,” Goss says. “The economy is doing okay, but it’s skimming like a stone, skimming across the water. It goes below the water and above the water, below the water, above the water. That’s the way the manufacturing economy in Mid America is doing, according to our survey.”
The survey is based on a zero-to-100 scale, with 50 being growth neutral. For January, Iowa’s economy hit a regional low of 43.1, which was up from December’s score of 40.8. Still, Goss says more employers in the region added to their workforces during the month.
“Hiring, wow, it went up above growth neutral, and this is the first time in some time it’s risen above growth neutral,” Goss says. “We’ve had almost a year of below growth neutral readings, and it rose to 51.1 and that’s up from December’s 46.4 and that’s almost, I won’t call it great news, but it was good news compared to what we’ve been seeing.”
For a fourth straight month, Goss says the wholesale price inflation gauge rose, but it continues to indicate modest inflation. Because of that, he expects the Federal Reserve to pause on any interest rate change at its next meeting in mid-March.
Despite weak manufacturing employment readings over the past year, Goss says about one in five firms reported labor shortages.
“The nation’s lost for 2024 about 93,000 jobs, and that’s about eight-tenths of 1%,” Goss says. “Our Mid America region lost about 7,900 jobs in the year, and that’s about five-tenths of 1%.”
According to the latest U.S. International Trade Administration data, Iowa experienced a $1.5 billion drop in 2024 year-to-date manufacturing exports compared to the same period in 2023 for a 9.6% decline.
Survey: Iowa's economy sees small boost but is still worst in Midwest - Radio Iowa
The Midwestern economy improved slightly during January, according to the latest Creighton University survey, but Iowa’s economy continued to struggle. Creighton economist Ernie Goss says supply managers are fearful new tariffs will hurt business, and in anticipation, many firms increased...
www.radioiowa.com
