Team improvement defined by change in KenPom ranking?

[paladinhawk]

I found this summary of the Hawks on BTPowerhouse thought provoking:

Few teams have improved as much as the Hawkeyes this season. Despite an underwhelming first few weeks in November, Iowa has steadily improved. The Hawkeyes were ranked 56th on KenPom on November 21st and have risen all the way to 15th on the site following Friday’s win over Michigan. That win pushed Iowa to 13-5 overall and to 4-3 in Big Ten play after also beating Northwestern on the road on Tuesday night.

I forget that the Hawks are a fairly young team with Kriener and Evelyn the only seniors.There have too many turnovers, but their rebounding has been solid, their defense isn't horrendous (damning by faint praise...) and they are stellar on offense.

I have certainly been critical of Fran in the past, but he deserves a lot of credit IMO for his coaching this season.

 

[SDHawkDoc]

Per Kenpom current adjusted D ranking is 79. That's big relative to the abomination that it was two years ago and something like a 30 step improvement from last year. Meanwhile the adjusted O is humming along at #3. That's a relatively winning formula exemplified by the michigan win last week.

 

[DodgerHawki]

Per Kenpom current adjusted D ranking is 79. That's big relative to the abomination that it was two years ago and something like a 30 step improvement from last year. Meanwhile the adjusted O is humming along at #3. That's a relatively winning formula exemplified by the michigan win last week.

Exactly. The team has improved. Kudos to them for doing so. As you mentioned, Iowa isn't an elite defensive team (they are an elite offensive team), and they are getting just enough stops to win games. Adjusted efficiency Iowa is #1 in the conference and #10 in defensive efficiency. If Iowa can stay in that area defensively or even improve a bit, they will certainly be a NCAA tournament team.

Big test tomorrow as Rutgers is the best defensive team in the league as measured by efficiency, and bad offensively (better only than Purdue and Nebraska in league).

It's likely there's not one single thing making for the improved defense, but a combination of things. Going to the 4-guard lineup to start has helped keep things in front of them a bit. All the bigs (Garza, Kriener and Pemsl) are juniors/seniors so they understand better how to defend. Garza especially has become a much better defender in the post. And Frederick, Toussaint and Evelyn are better defenders than Moss and Bohannon. But it still comes down to playing together and playing hard, which this team is doing. There will likely still be some games where the opponent just lights it up from outside, but it won't be due to lack of effort.

 

[TCOOL]

Per Kenpom current adjusted D ranking is 79. That's big relative to the abomination that it was two years ago and something like a 30 step improvement from last year. Meanwhile the adjusted O is humming along at #3. That's a relatively winning formula exemplified by the michigan win last week.

The offensive and defensive ranks speak to how down offense is across college basketball. Our current ORtg would have been good for 16th in the nation last season. Our AdjD number this season would have ranked 35th in the nation last season.

 

[TampaHawkfan]

I don't disagree with any of this and I'm happy to this point, but I still want to see how this team closes out the February and March portion of the schedule. We've been here before. That said, looking at the schedule, it does look pretty tough down the stretch, so I DO expect a few losses to be sure. I just am wanting to see this team have a respectable finish to the season. No 1-7 type finishes, please.

 

[SSG T]

They are doing exactly what I pointed out early in the season. They don't need to be great defensively, just good. They are elite offensively which gives them some leeway against most teams, even in the tourney.

 

[paladinhawk]

The offensive and defensive ranks speak to how down offense is across college basketball. Our current ORtg would have been good for 16th in the nation last season. Our AdjD number this season would have ranked 35th in the nation last season.

Are defenses improved across college basketball? I'm trying to mentally tweak out the decline in offense vs. the Hawks #79 Deff this year which would have ranked top 40 last year.

Comparing the numbers from last year with this year it looks like the Hawk's offense declined a small amount but the Deff improved quite a bit.

 

[L. Wade Childress]

Yeah, basically everyone is worse on offense due to the longer three-point line which means everyone is also better on defense.

 

[jonesy5960]

Yeah, basically everyone is worse on offense due to the longer three-point line which means everyone is also better on defense.

This.

 

[paladinhawk]

Yeah, basically everyone is worse on offense due to the longer three-point line which means everyone is also better on defense.

Thanks for your concise Basketball Stats for Dummies post. I had completely forgotten about longer three-point line.

 

[HawkLand]

Does someone have a source for 3 point percentages for all of D1 and for Iowa for this year and last year?

Would be interesting to see. Thanks in advance for posting if someone has that info.

 

[HeRKeYHoPeFuL]

2019-2020:
Iowa - 36.1%
NCAA - 33.2%

2018-2019:
Iowa - 36.4%
NCAA - 34.4%

 

[slipHawk]

Garza's ability to play D without fouling I think helps our a D a lot. We have had so many bigs that couldn't stop fouling on D in the past years. Kriener might be improved in that arena as well, not totally sure.

 

[HeRKeYHoPeFuL]

Garza's ability to play D without fouling I think helps our a D a lot. We have had so many bigs that couldn't stop fouling on D in the past years. Kriener might be improved in that arena as well, not totally sure.

Also a by-product of improved perimeter defense. Our guards aren't getting blown by with near the frequency this year, so our bigs haven't had to step in to challenge guards as much.

 

[TCOOL]

Garza's ability to play D without fouling I think helps our a D a lot. We have had so many bigs that couldn't stop fouling on D in the past years. Kriener might be improved in that arena as well, not totally sure.

Kriener's fouls per 40 minutes in his Iowa career:

Freshman- 6.6
Sophomore- 6.9
Junior- 5.0
Senior- 3.3

 

[Herky T Hawk]

Last year's starters only had Joe that was average at D. Of the rest, Garza improved, JBo hasn't played much, and the other two left. The three that aren't playing this year have been replaced in the starting lineup with Connor, CJ, Joe T, and/or Kreiner depending upon the night. All of those guys are at least average defenders for their positions. That alone is a huge improvement for our defense in not allowing guys free reign to attack the hoop all of the time. Sometimes they get beat, but they're getting more stops than last year. And yes they can improve more, but in the last game we started 2 Frosh, 2 Sophs, and 1 Junior. Look for big improvement in the offseason if they all stay.

 

[HawkLogic]

I think both rule changes---moving out the 3pt line and resetting the shot clock to 20 seconds after offensive rebound are beneficial to Fran's style of play/current roster. The two rules help zone defense--zone gives up more open 3's, but you have to step out further now and shoot a slightly lower percentage. With 20 seconds after offensive rebound, assuming there isn't an open look immediately after offensive rebound, then zone takes a little more time to break down than Man defense.

Having an inside post scoring has become more important with 3ball percentages being down---that is where Garza is paying off.

The large improvement in Garza scoring/rebounding, Kriener stepping up and being more consistent, JoeW making the expected Freshman to Sophomore improvement, Connor improving his 3pt shooting from 20% to 34%, and Fredrick being an upgrade over Moss and slightly better team defense..everything has gone right.

Assuming no more injuries, this looks to be the best Fran team and I would not expect a Fran Fade.






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