We didn’t have expensive monster wire in the 70s and 80s. All we had was 50’ of speaker wire on a spool, AND WE LIKED IT!The super expensive Monster wire.. probably still make them.
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We didn’t have expensive monster wire in the 70s and 80s. All we had was 50’ of speaker wire on a spool, AND WE LIKED IT!The super expensive Monster wire.. probably still make them.
This is actually pretty true. Another example is the podcast I started this summer. I have literally no background in audio production, but within just a couple weeks, it was pretty easy to produce pro-sounding audio with even a decent mic and some free/cheap software. It’s pretty amazing. I know this also applies to photo/video tools and a ton of other areas as well.The smartphone is the king and is constantly evolving. But there's been many other tech advances that are huge or key including streaming (music/tv/movies), DVRs, digital photo (mostly on phones, but even what photogs can do with digital cameras is crazy), Youtube/Twitch, online gaming/esports, ipads, smaller, lighter/faster laptops, wearable devices like iwatch or fitbit, wifi everywhere, wireless speakers, the 4k/UHDTV's are so much better than what was available 15+ years ago, then all of the smart home things like Alexa/Siri with thermostats, doorbells, video cameras, lights, garage doors, and more. Hell, just look at a car from 15 years ago and one now... worlds different with the tech available.
I still think VR/AR will be the next explosion…..but not until there are uses beyond gaming and the physical interfaces have to get smaller, more practical. Think expanded Oculus type performance with more of a Google Glass interface, but maybe not even on a device we wear around. The Carrot weather app gives some fun AR capability, but eventually, we may be able to see a ton of the information around us by looking. Heads-Up Display (HUD) in cars is a very rudimentary starter example.
The smartphone is the king and is constantly evolving. But there's been many other tech advances that are huge or key including streaming (music/tv/movies), DVRs, digital photo (mostly on phones, but even what photogs can do with digital cameras is crazy), Youtube/Twitch, online gaming/esports, ipads, smaller, lighter/faster laptops, wearable devices like iwatch or fitbit, wifi everywhere, wireless speakers, the 4k/UHDTV's are so much better than what was available 15+ years ago, then all of the smart home things like Alexa/Siri with thermostats, doorbells, video cameras, lights, garage doors, and more. Hell, just look at a car from 15 years ago and one now... worlds different with the tech available.
I fully admit that my view of it's usefulness could be limited but I feel like there isn't much use for VR outside of gaming. Like I don't see it as something that in 5 years everyone is going to own one. Hardcore gamers will but you might barely notice if you arn't a big gamer.
I think if AR/VR takes off, it’ll be part of remote work and then someone will find other personal uses from there. I also don’t meant to imply that we’re knocking on the door of it now - but think about phones - cell phones started in the 80s as ridiculously expensive, huge things. By the late 90s, consumers had them, often for travel or work and then even though we had Palm Pilots and similar device and Blackberry, nobody really cared until the iPhone 3G came out. I could be wrong, but I do think there’s a lot of untapped potential that people will eventually care about.Yeah, I think it's a dead end for mass consumption. And I'm someone who has been way interested in it since it was considered science fiction. It's arguably as big a tech dud as has been seen in my lifetime, when compared to what was imagined versus the impact it has made.
It's not like it doesn't work or isn't cool...people just ultimately don't care. If anything, we're moving further away from the ideas around it, as we went through and added 3D to tvs and phones and game systems...and then removed it due to minimal interest.
It's as if we finally got the flying cars we were promised, and everyone was like "huh. Ok cool. I don't want one."
I have a hard time believing that a generation that, as we've discussed, would just as soon watch The Avengers on a phone or a watch as on a 65" 4K HDR TV is ultimately going to find VR as a necessary advancement of entertainment technology.
Obviously it still holds plenty of promise for hardcore gaming, education, training, etc. I just think it's potential as the next mass consumer electronic must have, the book is closed on that.
Yeah, I think it's a dead end for mass consumption. And I'm someone who has been way interested in it since it was considered science fiction. It's arguably as big a tech dud as has been seen in my lifetime, when compared to what was imagined versus the impact it has made.
It's not like it doesn't work or isn't cool...people just ultimately don't care. If anything, we're moving further away from the ideas around it, as we went through and added 3D to tvs and phones and game systems...and then removed it due to minimal interest.
It's as if we finally got the flying cars we were promised, and everyone was like "huh. Ok cool. I don't want one."
I have a hard time believing that a generation that, as we've discussed, would just as soon watch The Avengers on a phone or a watch as on a 65" 4K HDR TV is ultimately going to find VR as a necessary advancement of entertainment technology.
Obviously it still holds plenty of promise for hardcore gaming, education, training, etc. I just think it's potential as the next mass consumer electronic must have, the book is closed on that.
I think if AR/VR takes off, it’ll be part of remote work and then someone will find other personal uses from there. I also don’t meant to imply that we’re knocking on the door of it now - but think about phones - cell phones started in the 80s as ridiculously expensive, huge things. By the late 90s, consumers had them, often for travel or work and then even though we had Palm Pilots and similar device and Blackberry, nobody really cared until the iPhone 3G came out. I could be wrong, but I do think there’s a lot of untapped potential that people will eventually care about.
Poof.I will trust the super high end geeks at Microsoft, Amazon, or Google to get it fixed quicker than in house tech experts that may or may not have the skills, backup severs, quality software backups, and uninterrupted power supply’s.
the cloud makes more and more sense everyday.
I fully admit that my view of it's usefulness could be limited but I feel like there isn't much use for VR outside of gaming. Like I don't see it as something that in 5 years everyone is going to own one. Hardcore gamers will but you might barely notice if you arn't a big gamer.
Agree that a digital camera devices by themselves became niche. My point was that smartphones could have stopped at 10-12mp but that is not what consumers want. HDR, cinema quality video is now the norm and that all happened in the last 10-15 years. The fact that a smartphone device today dedicates a significant amount of real estate to the camera with multiple, telescopic lenses speaks to its overall importance. Higher quantities of higher quality pics and videos also demands larger local storage on the device as well as increased utilization of cloud storage. All of this I would call a significant innovation by itself (even though it resides in the phone category).But digital cameras as devices fell off the face of the earth. It's an extremely niche product now. Nobody is hoping to get a camera for a present at Christmas, or looking forward to their next camera.
Interesting tweet thread that is specifically related to Silicon Valley and the collapse of SVB, but touches on an observation I've been making for several years now (I saw posts I made from 2019)...
Tech just isn't doing anything notable in the consumer space anymore, after absolutely transforming the world in my lifetime. I enjoyed this guy's thoughts in this thread...
(disclaimer...I have no idea who this guy is. If he's some alt-right bozo or "equity" grifter...don't care. Just thought it was interesting)
Batteries, tracking devices, noise cancelling in-ear headphones. The advances are all in the smartphone ecosystem.
Also, robot vacuums have gotten really good.
There are educational uses for it. Like, if you want to show your students what a Roman Forum looked like in its prime or something, but yeah, beyond those things I don't see a whole lot of use for it. I don't think there will ever be VR "movies" because being inside the entertainment kind of demands interactivity and then you have a video game.I fully admit that my view of it's usefulness could be limited but I feel like there isn't much use for VR outside of gaming. Like I don't see it as something that in 5 years everyone is going to own one. Hardcore gamers will but you might barely notice if you arn't a big gamer.
The big move is the IoT, but we've been talking about this for a while. Unfortunately few companies have made a product that actually makes things easier.One cool thing that we've got is really cheap, but still good HD projectors. I got the daughter an HD projector that she can use in her dorm room - it can connect to her laptop or cell phone - and it was $80. She doesn't have a TV in her room (although she does have a 32" monitor), and this lets her watch movies on a larger screen (the wall of her room). I couldn't have imagined that when I was in school and content watching TV on probably a 20" TV.
Like others have said, the innovations aren't the same as they were - they're no longer things you carry around with you - but they're all around your house, and they've changed everything about our lives.
Like checking the mail - when I was a kid, checking the mail every day was a huge deal. Now, between emails, electronic bill pay, and USPS informed delivery, I check the mail maybe once per week, just to clear out all the crap/junk mail that I already know is in there. If there was a way to opt out of junk mail and the free local town papers, we could probably do away with needing a mail box any longer.
Right, cameras now are cell phones and pro-level digital SLRs. I think it's actually helped development of the high-end cameras because they have to stay better than the phones.
yeah, the major advance has been that everything we've had as separate devices have moved to our cell phones. And that is better, but they've been iterative steps rather than massive leaps forward.Most high end cameras are pointed directly towards upper tier professional use anymore,... Anybody not in that realm is generally satisfied with the camera capability provided by their phone.
When we get real local AI processing, it’ll change everything. It’ll have a bigger effect on compression than ‘Middle-Out’ technology.However, if we can do AI without destroying the world, something like that may make some major changes for people?
I've been following an interesting thread over the last few days where someone is using AI to help make as much money with 100 as possible. He's following it's steps exactly as defined. Will be interesting to see where it goes.When we get real local AI processing, it’ll change everything. It’ll have a bigger effect on compression than ‘Middle-Out’ technology.
AI isn’t necessarily new in the finance space. There are high frequency algorithms that “learn” and develop.I've been following an interesting thread over the last few days where someone is using AI to help make as much money with 100 as possible. He's following it's steps exactly as defined. Will be interesting to see where it goes.
Well algorithms and AI are two different things. Algorithms always work in an expected pattern analyzing very specific, although potentially complex set of scenarios and responding as expected. AI is self learning and essentially self programming. So give it a specific question and it will analyze everything and attempt to determine it's own solutions which may often be unexpected. The problem is that we don't truly understand how AI thinks. Heck, in some scenarios, we found AI that developed it's own language and started communicating with other nodes. It's developers didn't understand the communication.AI isn’t necessarily new in the finance space. There are high frequency algorithms that “learn” and develop.
One nice thing that will come with AI for the retail investor is that it will take a lot of the emotion out of investing.
Our current computers are deterministic. Everything a computer does is the result of algorithmic design. You can teach the computer to teach itself, but it’s still operating within modern computational boundaries.Well algorithms and AI are two different things. Algorithms always work in an expected pattern analyzing very specific, although potentially complex set of scenarios and responding as expected. AI is self learning and essentially self programming. So give it a specific question and it will analyze everything and attempt to determine it's own solutions which may often be unexpected. The problem is that we don't truly understand how AI thinks. Heck, in some scenarios, we found AI that developed it's own language and started communicating with other nodes. It's developers didn't understand the communication.
So will they devise things that truly make the world better, or will they create a cold/calculated approach that makes all worse.
I mean that's true of anything that learns though. Our brains have an algorithmic design (Whether you think it's divine or natural); but there's a design behind how human brains work. And I'm not certain I can truly generate a random number without outside forces either. My brain naturally always draws to numbers with a 7 in them and then I force myself to choose another if I'm picking a number. I mean I could roll a dice, but so could a computer.Our current computers are deterministic. Everything a computer does is the result of algorithmic design. You can teach the computer to teach itself, but it’s still operating within modern computational boundaries.
AI can’t generate a truly random number.