false premise. That kick wouldn't have happened. It's a completely new set of random events. Punting from 5 yards closer resets everything. Punt likely falls somewhere different. Play call is different. Iowa's coverage might be different. Even if he does end up that same place, maybe he approaches the ball differently knowing he has to go 59 instead of 54.
Completely new set of random events.
Bottom line KFz didn't control everything he could.
Agreed that you cannot apply the same scenario with a different punt and starting location. Another consideration is that Iowa State kicked the FG on 3rd down with 9 seconds remaining. If they were faced with a 59-yard field goal, they likely try to run one more pass on the sideline to pick up a few yards and end up with a similar length FG to what we saw.