The impossible dream begins: the road to the NCAA

[The Sleeping Dog]

There still is a path short of a title, or maybe even the finals, that get's Iowa into the NCAA. I don't pay for real time RPI but tonight's win has to move the Hawks up 10 or 12 spots and maybe as high as the mid 70s.

1. Convincing win over the Lion and the boys get to 10-8. That gets the boys another notch or two so they are in the mid to low seventy's.

2. Bug Eaters beat Michigan on Senior Day; The Turtle takes out Sparty and Purdue punishes Wiley with such brutality that NU grads call the ASPCA. That puts a surging Iowa in a three way tie for 5th in the regular season, coming off a four game winning streak. That puts Hawks in the 2/7 bracket and a likely rematch with Minnesota.

3. Cannot flame out in the BTT, that puts Iowa on the bubble for the NIT. If Iowa is seven they play 10 which sets up a rematch with either Brutus or the other ugly red uniforms. That will be make or break moment. Win that one and the RPI has to take another small bump but maybe now bumped into the mid 60s. Might catch a play in game with that finish and fairly high NIT seed.

4. Beat the goophers in the semis. Before the semis I cannot imagine a rematch could possibly more motivate the boys than the robbery at Goopherland. A win in that game has to get the boys into low 60s maybe even high 50s.

That's a team of freshmen and sophomores led by the B1Gs leading scorer (with a cool personal story-the committee likes that) coming off a .five game winning streak with wins over four ranked opponents, two on the road in the last two weeks of the season teams with a trip to the BTT finals. A loss there wouldn't bounce them down out of the mid 60s and that should get us in as one of the 60 non play in teams.

Am I tripping?

 

[LaoHawk]

There's a real chance after today's win, much better odds after each win. These new group of young players are more determined and hungry than the previous teams, love them all, but this year is fun and we still have a couple weeks of the games yet to play (BTT, NCAA, or NIT).

 

[HeRKeYHoPeFuL]

Any 3 more wins would put our RPI in the low to mid 60s with at least one more Top 50 win on a neutral court (two if we lose to PSU and need 3 in the BTT). That should do it any way it happens, anything extra is just getting us out of a Tuesday/Wednesday game.

2 more wins before losing to Wisconsin/Minnesota in the quarters leaves us with RPI 70 and likely out without major bubble help.

 

[relishingwinning18]

Real time RPI has our RPI as 72 this morning. Just FYI.

 

[Rudolph]

Some high-60s RPI teams have gotten in. If Iowa is high-60s, 10-8 conference with 5-game win streak, including two national-TV road wins vs ranked opponents, I think Hawks just need to win their first BTT matchup.

 

[33hawkfan]

Must win on Sunday, it won't move our RPI but need to hold serve. A couple neutral site wins will bump it up and if we can get two in the B10 Tournament, I like our chances.

 

[Rudolph]

Must win on Sunday, it won't move our RPI but need to hold serve. A couple neutral site wins will bump it up and if we can get two in the B10 Tournament, I like our chances.

If we win two in DC, we're in. 10-8, 7-game win streak including WI, MD, and presumably Purdue, 20 wins overall. In.

If we win one in DC I think we very well could be in, unless we lose ugly to (presumably) Purdue.

 

[relishingwinning18]

Some high-60s RPI teams have gotten in. If Iowa is high-60s, 10-8 conference with 5-game win streak, including two national-TV road wins vs ranked opponents, I think Hawks just need to win their first BTT matchup.

I believe Syracuse was 72 last year and got in.

 

[ping72]

How will we have a win streak without winning the BTT? And if we do that, we're in anyway.

 

[Rudolph]

How will we have a win streak without winning the BTT? And if we do that, we're in anyway.

Oh don't be so technical. You get the gist. Let me enjoy my coffee.

 

[HeRKeYHoPeFuL]

Interesting note that I caught last night. In an interview, Lunardi mentioned that all teams from major conferences that are .500 or above are automatically in the conversation. Has anyone seen anything official from the committee regarding this criteria? I know I've seen that all regular season champions get consideration, but hadn't seen the .500 in major conference criteria before.

If true (whether a rule or not), great to force the committee to review our resume already. Gives them more time to see that Cook was out for a stretch there (including our worst loss) and realize how well we've played since late December. 14-8 since our start, could be on a 4 game win streak including 2 RPI Top 50 road wins heading into BTT play.

 

[Rudolph]

Interesting note that I caught last night. In an interview, Lunardi mentioned that all teams from major conferences that are .500 or above are automatically in the conversation. Has anyone seen anything official from the committee regarding this criteria? I know I've seen that all regular season champions get consideration, but hadn't seen the .500 in major conference criteria before.

If true (whether a rule or not), great to force the committee to review our resume already. Gives them more time to see that Cook was out for a stretch there (including our worst loss) and realize how well we've played since late December. 14-8 since our start, could be on a 4 game win streak including 2 RPI Top 50 road wins heading into BTT play.

If Lunardi says it, it is pretty bankable. By all appearances, this is this guy's entire life/job.

 

[DavenportHawk8]

If Lunardi says it, it is pretty bankable. By all appearances, this is this guy's entire life/job.

Yeah but this year the committee stated in early Feb when they released the bracket their criteria is as follows:

1. RPI (uses it to rank the teams)
2. Top 50 wins (who have you beat)
3. SOS overall (non-conf & Conf don't matter)
4. Conference rankings & where you finish doesn't matter

So Iowa is sitting with 5 top 50 wins. That's pretty good compared to other teams on the bubble. There are teams with RPI's in then 50's (but they are 1-7 or 2-10 or 3-9) vs top 50 teams. So those teams had the opportunities but did not get there. Some of the mid-majors that are "high in the RPI" are 0-3 vs top 50 or 1-3 vs top 100. So there is no comparison there.

There are also some bubble teams with BAD losses. Iowa has UNO & Memphis as 100+ losses. But those were in the non-conf and a long time ago. There are teams with losses to 150 to 200+ RPI losses. That is not good.

So Iowa is in the discussion right now. I don't know what the bracketoligsts are looking at?

 

[33hawkfan]

Yeah but this year the committee stated in early Feb when they released the bracket their criteria is as follows:

1. RPI (uses it to rank the teams)
2. Top 50 wins (who have you beat)
3. SOS overall (non-conf & Conf don't matter)
4. Conference rankings & where you finish doesn't matter

So Iowa is sitting with 5 top 50 wins. That's pretty good compared to other teams on the bubble. There are teams with RPI's in then 50's (but they are 1-7 or 2-10 or 3-9) vs top 50 teams. So those teams had the opportunities but did not get there. Some of the mid-majors that are "high in the RPI" are 0-3 vs top 50 or 1-3 vs top 100. So there is no comparison there.

There are also some bubble teams with BAD losses. Iowa has UNO & Memphis as 100+ losses. But those were in the non-conf and a long time ago. There are teams with losses to 150 to 200+ RPI losses. That is not good.

So Iowa is in the discussion right now. I don't know what the bracketoligsts are looking at?

And whether they explicitly say it or not, there's definitely a recency bias with the committee and ending the season with some really good wins is definitely an advantage.

 

[relishingwinning18]

Yeah but this year the committee stated in early Feb when they released the bracket their criteria is as follows:

1. RPI (uses it to rank the teams)
2. Top 50 wins (who have you beat)
3. SOS overall (non-conf & Conf don't matter)
4. Conference rankings & where you finish doesn't matter

So Iowa is sitting with 5 top 50 wins. That's pretty good compared to other teams on the bubble. There are teams with RPI's in then 50's (but they are 1-7 or 2-10 or 3-9) vs top 50 teams. So those teams had the opportunities but did not get there. Some of the mid-majors that are "high in the RPI" are 0-3 vs top 50 or 1-3 vs top 100. So there is no comparison there.

There are also some bubble teams with BAD losses. Iowa has UNO & Memphis as 100+ losses. But those were in the non-conf and a long time ago. There are teams with losses to 150 to 200+ RPI losses. That is not good.

So Iowa is in the discussion right now. I don't know what the bracketoligsts are looking at?

Added on to #3, our SOS will also be pretty good as well.