The Numbers Behind an Ugly Start to the NFL Season
The Bengals’ Joe Burrow kicked off the season with the worst start of his career, and the rest of the NFL wasn’t much better on opening weekend.
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Right before the first Sunday of the NFL season, Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow signed a historic contract that made him the highest-paid player in the sport’s history. Then he took the field and had the worst game of his career.
Burrow’s poor performance in Cincinnati’s 24-3 loss to the Cleveland Browns was out of character for him. But it wasn’t an anomaly on the opening weekend. It was a brutal start for offenses across the league.
For fans who reminisce about the days when defenses ruled the league, it was a banner start to the 2023 season. For quarterbacks, it was less enjoyable: many were shockingly inefficient and spent an usual amount of time getting dragged to the ground. There was also a litany of special teams mistakes that made it seem like teams have an unusual amount of rust they still have to kick off.
It didn’t just look ugly—it’s backed up by data. Through Sunday night’s games, quarterbacks averaged 6.3 yards per attempt, a sizable dip from 7.0 last season. Overall, teams averaged 20.6 points, far below last year’s mark of 21.9 a game. Passing touchdowns were down while sacks and fumbles were up, helping drive a start that lacked the widespread scoring explosions that have become so commonplace in recent years.
Burrow’s troubles on a rainy day in Cleveland were the most stunning turn. The quarterback, who just inked a deal that pays him $55 million annually, appeared to struggle in the conditions as several throws appeared to slip or wobble out of his hands. By the end of the game, the inefficiency of one of the game’s best quarterbacks was staggering: He completed 14-of-31 passes for a paltry 82 yards.
“When it’s raining like that, it’s something you’ve got to handle,” said Burrow, who was also nursing a calf injury ahead of the season. “We didn’t handle it today.”
Burrow wasn’t the only passer throttled by an opposing defense. He wasn’t even the only quarterback who completed less than half of his passes. The Tennessee Titans’ Ryan Tannehill threw three interceptions while going 16-for-34 in his team’s 16-15 loss to the New Orleans Saints. Tennessee didn’t score a touchdown all game.
New Orleans Saints defensive tackle Bryan Bresee, left, pressures Tennessee Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill. PHOTO: BUTCH
Going into Monday night’s game, teams averaged just 196.4 passing yards in the first week. The last time that number was below 200 over a full season was over three decades ago, in 1992.
It’s too early to say whether this points toward a season-long trend or if
it was a one-week blip—the Bengals-Browns game wasn’t the only one in which teams had to slog through wet weather. But Sunday also showed the breadth of teams grappling with young quarterbacks who are works in progress.
Three teams started rookies under center to start the year, making it just the third season since 1970 in which three rookie quarterbacks started in Week 1. This time around, all three lost and two, the Houston Texans’ C.J. Stroud and the Carolina Panthers’ Bryce Young, failed to score more than 10 points.
Those woes extended to other young passers, too. In Pittsburgh, second-year Pittsburgh Steelers signal caller Kenny Pickett threw two picks and was sacked five times in his team’s 30-7 loss to the San Francisco 49ers, whose fellow sophomore passer Brock Purdy was one of the rare quarterbacks who looked fabulous.
Pickett was going up against one of the league’s most feared pass rushes, but quarterbacks picking grass out of their helmets was one of the most common sights on Sunday. Entering Monday night, quarterbacks have been sacked on 7.1% of their dropbacks versus last year’s rate of 6.7%. Net yards per pass attempt, which also accounts for yards lost on sacks, were down to 5.4 from 6.1 last year.
Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett tries to avoid a sack by Arik Armstead of the San Francisco 49ers.
The most glaring exception on Sunday was the return of Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who was back making big plays after suffering a series of scary head injuries last season. In a thriller against the Los Angeles Chargers, Tagovailoa threw for 466 yards in a 36-34 win. That marked the fourth most yards ever in an opening-weekend game.
Still, the poor execution bled into Sunday night’s action, when the New York Giants quickly went down 16-0 against the Dallas Cowboys without surrendering an offensive touchdown. First, the Giants had a field goal blocked and returned 58 yards for a score. Then, on a play that was technically ruled an interception, a ball thrown by quarterback Daniel Jones popped out of running back Saquon Barkley’s hands and straight to a defender, who returned it for a score. (For good measure, the Cowboys proceeded to miss the extra point.)
There wasn’t a phase of the game that the Giants could get right. Their kicker, Graham Gano, missed two first-half field goal attempts after missing three all of last season. The Giants are among the main teams hoping this beginning was merely an aberration—they ultimately got blown out 40-0 by their division rivals.
