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The race is breaking

AuroraHawk said:
Not going to say this is accurate but David Plouffe knows a thing or two about running a campaign and winning elections. Jen O'Malley Dillon is extremely sharp as well. The ground game in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania for Harris is quite impressive. DT Barnum has little to no ground game. If Harris/Walz win the election, the GOP will almost certainly rue the day they decided to hand the reins of that party to Lara Freaking Trump.
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If you follow things closely, Plouffe's tone has changed a bit. He sounds optimistic, hopeful, and . . . dare I write it . . . confident that things are breaking in Harris/Walz' favor. There is very little denying the stark contrast between the tone/mood of the two campaigns right now. This may not translate into a Harris/Walz win but I've become more optimistic in the last 72 hours that DT Barnum will be saddled with his second loss as a presidential candidate.

 
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AuroraHawk said:
If you follow things closely, Plouffe's tone has changed a bit. He sounds optimistic, hopeful, and . . . dare I write it . . . confident that things are breaking in Harris/Walz' favor. There is very little denying the stark contrast between the tone/mood of the two campaigns right now. This may not translate into a Harris/Walz win but I've become more optimistic in the last 72 hours that DT Barnum will be saddled with his second loss as a presidential candidate.

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More. Again, they might not be right but this is not the messaging that one expects from a campaign with internal polling looking dour:


Wrote it before and will write it again. The Harris/Walz team knows how to campaign and win elections.
 
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naturalbornhawk said:
Absolutely. If Kamala, who's more or less been anointed into her position, has zero VP accomplishments worthy of talking about, does a shitty job at everything we know of that she's been tasked to do as VP, fails miserably when any pressing interview she's ever done, then why the hell are so many people excited about her?

A year ago she was being made fun of because of the moronic things she'd say into the mic, and that hasn't changed, but has only gotten worse. No way in hell she should even be VP, let alone President.
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Wait, are you a Trump supporter complaining about a candidate saying moronic sh!t into a mic? Now, THAT is some funny sh!t.
 
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AuroraHawk said:
If you follow things closely, Plouffe's tone has changed a bit. He sounds optimistic, hopeful, and . . . dare I write it . . . confident that things are breaking in Harris/Walz' favor. There is very little denying the stark contrast between the tone/mood of the two campaigns right now. This may not translate into a Harris/Walz win but I've become more optimistic in the last 72 hours that DT Barnum will be saddled with his second loss as a presidential candidate.

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Click to expand...
AuroraHawk said:
More. Again, they might not be right but this is not the messaging that one expects from a campaign with internal polling looking dour:
View embedded media


Wrote it before and will write it again. The Harris/Walz team knows how to campaign and win elections.
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Is Plouffe supposed to say "no" to that question? Is there even a 1% chance of that answer? C'mon, man...

You'll have to tell us about the second tweet, it appears it was deleted.
 
seminole97 said:
Is Plouffe supposed to say "no" to that question? Is there even a 1% chance of that answer? C'mon, man...

You'll have to tell us about the second tweet, it appears it was deleted.
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He would have answered it differently. Even still they don't want that info out because they need everyone to vote.
 
GOHOX69 said:
....For Harris....
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tenor.gif
 
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Where is my friend @GOHOX69 anyway? Maybe we can smoke a peace pipe or something. I'm willing to be magnanimous but I was frankly looking forward to his take this AM...
 
Gus is dead said:
Where is my friend @GOHOX69 anyway? Maybe we can smoke a peace pipe or something. I'm willing to be magnanimous but I was frankly looking forward to his take this AM...
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For the last month he was spouting off about me and some others going away after the election, well the election is over and I ain't going anywhere.

Where is the little Nancy? Oh, Nancy where are you?
 
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ICHerky said:
It might be but there is nothing out there suggesting this. All data points to Trump winning. I’ve been hesitant to embrace it but I think Trump wins and it might not be close. He even has an outside shot at winning the popular vote
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Wow... This guy has the script. What's the score of the UCLA/Iowa game supposed to be?
 
bunsen82 said:
Allan Lichtman still predicts Harris to win. He looks at predictors rather than the polls or betting markets. Has been correct in 9-10 elections. I follow IEM, currently heavily skewed to Harris, it’s a thin market and could be affected by a students that lean democratic, however it’s a market that isn’t influenced by 1-2 big better. Currently 80 to 20 odds for Harris. The early poll data shows massive turnout. Harris needs high turnout to win. Lastly, it’s the fact women are leaning heavily towards Harris. As a group they are more reliable to vote and this margin looks bigger to Harris than to Biden 4 years ago. I do check 538 and a few other sites. It still appears Wisconsin and Michigan will trend to Harris. That leave Pennsylvania. My personal opinion is the polls are under recording Harris support by 1-2% or more. Similar to the 2022 election where republicans underperformed. There are also 2 prognosticators who have been on CNBC that still say 55% chance for Harris.
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From 538​

​

State polls missed in the same direction as 2016 and 2020​

Statistical bias of all polls published in the last 21 days of presidential elections since 2016 by state, in states decided by less than 15 points in the 2024 presidential election and that were reporting at least 95 percent of the vote as of 6 a.m. Eastern on Nov. 8, 2024
Table with 4 columns and 10 rows.
State201620202024
AZD+1.7D+3.0-
FLD+3.1D+5.6D+6.6
GAD+1.4D+0.7D+1.0
IAD+6.2D+8.2D+8.2
MID+5.7D+4.3D+2.5
NCD+5.3D+3.5D+2.0
NVR+1.5D+2.2D+3.0
OHD+7.3D+6.5D+3.7
PAD+5.0D+4.3D+2.1
WID+6.0D+6.6D+1.6
 
SCHawkFan said:
They have a lot of work to do to catch up with the democrats. These are Bucks County numbers. We know PA is going to have a big Election Day turnout because of the changes to early voting.

Registered Party202020222024
Democrat97,704 (59.5%)57,184 (65.4%)55,240 (54.7%)
Republican43,276 (26.3%)19,897 (22.8%)34,188 (33.8%)
Other3,212 (2.0%)1,397 (1.6%)1,556 (1.5%)
Unaffiliated8,968 (10.3%)10,040 (9.9%)
Total,2487,446101,024

These numbers do not include all that many low propensity voters.
Voted in 2020202020222024
Did Not Vote0 (0.0%)5,908 (6.8%)7,828 (7.7%)
Voted164,244 (100.0%)81,538 (93.2%)93,196 (92.3%)
Total164,24487,446101,024

Half of those showing as not voting in 2020 are in the age group of 18-29.

targetearly.targetsmart.com

TargetSmart's Early Vote Dashboard

Early and absentee voting data is more important than ever. TargetSmart has created a site to paint a picture of the votes cast thus far. Check back often for updates.
targetearly.targetsmart.com targetearly.targetsmart.com
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Seems like they caught up
 
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