The Reality of Iowa Defense

[Iafootballfan]

I see posts all over this board referring to our defense as elite, top 10, etc. and I just wasn't sure how true that was or if it is a faux due to poor strength of schedule. I looked back at the last 4 seasons for games only against ranked opponents, here is what I found for comparison with our peers and supposed top defenses:

Georgia: 24 games vs ranked opponents, defense allowed average of 17
Bama: 23 games vs ranked opponents, defense allowed average of 23
Texas: 22 games vs ranked opponents, defense allowed average of 25
Penn St: 18 games vs ranked opponents, defense allowed average of 24
Ohio St: 17 games vs ranked opponents, defense allowed average of 26
Iowa State: 16 games vs ranked opponents, defense allowed average of 31

Iowa: 9 games vs ranked opponents, defense allowed average of 33

Our defense does not perform at the level the narrative about our program seems to be and also shows quite a bit weaker schedule. My conclusion is that we have been riding a false narrative for years due to the Big 10 west.

 

[jonesy5960]

I see posts all over this board referring to our defense as elite, top 10, etc. and I just wasn't sure how true that was or if it is a faux due to poor strength of schedule. I looked back at the last 3 seasons for games only against ranked opponents, here is what I found for comparison with our peers and supposed top defenses:

Georgia: 24 games vs ranked opponents, defense allowed average of 17
Bama: 23 games vs ranked opponents, defense allowed average of 23
Texas: 22 games vs ranked opponents, defense allowed average of 25
Penn St: 18 games vs ranked opponents, defense allowed average of 24
Ohio St: 17 games vs ranked opponents, defense allowed average of 26
Iowa State: 16 games vs ranked opponents, defense allowed average of 31

Iowa: 9 games vs ranked opponents, defense allowed average of 33

Our defense does not perform at the level the narrative about our program seems to be and also shows quite a bit weaker schedule. My conclusion is that we have been riding a false narrative for years due to the Big 10 west.

Your conclusion would be wrong. Look at any opponent-adjusted efficiency based metric and you will see why.

 

[Iafootballfan]

Your conclusion would be wrong. Look at any opponent-adjusted efficiency based metric and you will see why.

I'm not using any "adjusted" figure a computer spits out, I used actual ranked game results only. Opponent-adjusted metrics are like beating a 250+ ranked KenPom team by 40 to improve efficiency rankings opposed to playing the bench and winning by 25.

 

[ClarindaA's]

I'm not using any "adjusted" figure a computer spits out, I used actual ranked game results only.

I would add, the offense being so shitty gave the opponents so many opportunities

 

[Hawky42]

It just doesn't work when you have scrubs for DBs and have a bend but don't break mantra, which is bs every play you should outplay the piss out of the opposition

 

[Hawk_4shur]

The defense was not elite or top 10 this year, but the last few years it has been. In those 9 games against ranked opponents (at least the ones before 2024), take a look at time of possession or other offensive metrics. You'll see they were pitiful.

No defense can remain on the field for that long without surrendering some points.

For example, the 2023 B1G Championship game against Michigan, the National Champ. It was 26-0.

Look a little deeper and you'll see that Michigan had 213 total yards. You'll see Iowa had 3 turnovers and 155 yards. One of Michigan's TDs came after they ran a punt back inside the 5 yard line. Michigan had the ball for 13 minutes more than the Hawks - close to an entire quarter.

Michigan had 351 yards against Bama in the NC game.

Iowa has had an excellent defense in several years before this one. But they needed some help from the offense.

 

[Iafootballfan]

I would add, the offense being so shitty gave the opponents so many opportunities

A way to eliminate this variable would be to review yards per play allowed in those ranked games but that would take forever.

 

[RagnarLothbrok]

I see posts all over this board referring to our defense as elite, top 10, etc. and I just wasn't sure how true that was or if it is a faux due to poor strength of schedule. I looked back at the last 3 seasons for games only against ranked opponents, here is what I found for comparison with our peers and supposed top defenses:

Georgia: 24 games vs ranked opponents, defense allowed average of 17
Bama: 23 games vs ranked opponents, defense allowed average of 23
Texas: 22 games vs ranked opponents, defense allowed average of 25
Penn St: 18 games vs ranked opponents, defense allowed average of 24
Ohio St: 17 games vs ranked opponents, defense allowed average of 26
Iowa State: 16 games vs ranked opponents, defense allowed average of 31

Iowa: 9 games vs ranked opponents, defense allowed average of 33

Our defense does not perform at the level the narrative about our program seems to be and also shows quite a bit weaker schedule. My conclusion is that we have been riding a false narrative for years due to the Big 10 west.

The Iowa defense was not elite this year, that’s for sure, because the secondary was awful. The problem is you can’t just plug in anyone off the roster and expect them to perform like their predecessors regardless of how good of a coach you think Phil Parker is. He’s not a magician.

Outside of Jamari Harris, no one in Iowa’s secondary was worth a shit. Compound that by the fact X is a bust and Quinn Schulte has never had any business starting at safety (for some reason Kirk feels he needs to reserve at least one safety position for a local white boy), you have a recipe for a train wreck against any team competent in the passing game. And that’s exactly what happened this season.

In terms of prior years, when you look at how incompetent the Iowa offense was and how much the defense was on the field, I would say the defense played at a pretty elite level.

 

[squeezebox]

I'm not using any "adjusted" figure a computer spits out, I used actual ranked game results only. Opponent-adjusted metrics are like beating a 250+ ranked KenPom team by 40 to improve efficiency rankings opposed to playing the bench and winning by 25.

Also why you don't use an average when Iowa has a loss in there against Michigan giving up 42 points.

2021
Indiana: 6
ISU: 17 (with a late score)
PSU: 20
Michigan: 42
Kentucky: 20

 

[jonesy5960]

I'm not using any "adjusted" figure a computer spits out, I used actual ranked game results only.

Exactly. This is why fans, and particularly Iowa fans are really bad at this.

I'll give you two scenarios to settle this. You have 2 identical defenses. One plays alongside an offense that regularly grinds out 4 or 5 first downs on every possession. Another plays alongside an offense that goes 3 and out or picks up maybe one first down more than 50% of the time. Do you think that these identical defenses are giving up the same amount of points per game?

 

[Iafootballfan]

Exactly. This is why fans, and particularly Iowa fans are really bad at this.

I'll give you two scenarios to settle this. You have 2 identical defenses. One plays alongside an offense that regularly grinds out 4 or 5 first downs on every possession. Another plays alongside an offense that goes 3 and out or picks up maybe one first down more than 50% of the time. Do you think that these identical defenses are giving up the same amount of points per game?

While this is true, you would then also have to factor in that Iowa defensive metrics have been going up against bad QB's in the Big 10 West for years. It goes both ways and likely evens out for the most part. Example: What recent QB have we played against in our division that went on to the NFL? 0?

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

I would add, the offense being so shitty gave the opponents so many opportunities

Exhibit A was the CCG last year against Michigan. D played well IMO but the offense did absolutely nothing in addition to truning the ball over.

 

[jonesy5960]

A way to eliminate this variable would be to review yards per play allowed in those ranked games but that would take forever.

That would be much better than ppg, but it fails to consider other important metrics like red zone defense.

 

[Easthawk1062]

Defense has been pretty solid especially with how the rules benefit offense in this modern era. I mean yesterday the defense was what most of us consider really poor and they gave up 27 and that’s with your top DB out for the draft. They’ve played pretty solid Vs explosive offenses also considering how much the offense has struggled the last few years(turnovers and not moving the ball) they need to be better as this year was a step back but I think they’ve been pretty damn elite or close to it.

 

[Iafootballfan]

I would add, the offense being so shitty gave the opponents so many opportunities

This argument doesn't hold much weight, time of possession (minutes) last 3 seasons from https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/average-time-of-possession-net-of-ot. We're talking about a couple minutes difference here @jonesy5960

Texas: 32
Bama: 32
OSU: 32
ISU: 30
Penn St: 30
Iowa: 29
Georgia: 28

 

[jonesy5960]

While this is true, you would then also have to factor in that Iowa defensive metrics have been going up against bad QB's in the Big 10 West for years. It goes both ways and likely evens out for the most part. Example: What recent QB have we played against in our division that went on to the NFL? 0?

You do know that there are metrics that take all of this into consideration? I'll give you one. It will show you that it considered Iowa as the 16th best defense in the country this year. If you look at the previous 3 years it ranks Iowa at 4, 6, and 2, which would rank them alongside Georgia as the most efficient defense in the country over that 3 year time frame. S&P+ would show the same.

BCF Toys - 2024 DFEI Ratings

www.bcftoys.com

 

[jonesy5960]

The defense was not elite or top 10 this year, but the last few years it has been. In those 9 games against ranked opponents (at least the ones before 2024), take a look at time of possession or other offensive metrics. You'll see they were pitiful.

No defense can remain on the field for that long without surrendering some points.

For example, the 2023 B1G Championship game against Michigan, the National Champ. It was 26-0.

Look a little deeper and you'll see that Michigan had 213 total yards. You'll see Iowa had 3 turnovers and 155 yards. One of Michigan's TDs came after they ran a punt back inside the 5 yard line. Michigan had the ball for 13 minutes more than the Hawks - close to an entire quarter.

Michigan had 351 yards against Bama in the NC game.

Iowa has had an excellent defense in several years before this one. But they needed some help from the offense.

Yes.

 

[oldhawk56]

The defense was not elite or top 10 this year, but the last few years it has been. In those 9 games against ranked opponents (at least the ones before 2024), take a look at time of possession or other offensive metrics. You'll see they were pitiful.

No defense can remain on the field for that long without surrendering some points.

For example, the 2023 B1G Championship game against Michigan, the National Champ. It was 26-0.

Look a little deeper and you'll see that Michigan had 213 total yards. You'll see Iowa had 3 turnovers and 155 yards. One of Michigan's TDs came after they ran a punt back inside the 5 yard line. Michigan had the ball for 13 minutes more than the Hawks - close to an entire quarter.

Michigan had 351 yards against Bama in the NC game.

Iowa has had an excellent defense in several years before this one. But they needed some help from the offense.

Bump

 

[onlyTheObvious]

It’s a great system from X’s and O’s standpoint.

You still need serious speed and athleticism to actually beat the good teams with it.

 

[Iafootballfan]

You do know that there are metrics that take all of this into consideration? I'll give you one. It will show you that it considered Iowa as the 16th best defense in the country this year. If you look at the previous 3 years it ranks Iowa at 4, 6, and 2, which would rank them alongside Georgia as the most efficient defense in the country over that 3 year time frame. S&P+ would show the same.

BCF Toys - 2024 DFEI Ratings

www.bcftoys.com

Doesn't this prove my point the "adjusted" rankings are skewed based on strength of schedule? This has 5-7 Utah as a Top 10 defense this year and the 3 ranked teams they played they gave up 34 points per game (BYU, ISU, Colorado).

 

[Rifler]

Iowa defense was down this season vs what we've become accustomed to,.. In Phil we trust.

 

[uihawk82]

(for some reason Kirk feels he needs to reserve at least one safety position for a local white boy), you have a recipe for a train wreck against any team competent in the passing game.

I didnt know Merriweather, Stone, and a few other guys like Belton and what's his name that escapes me right now who picked off that first pass against OSU in 2017 were local white guys. But I get your meaning. Maybe Schulte was very good also pre-snap yelling out coverages to other players which I saw him do a lot of when I was at games.

 

[jonesy5960]

Doesn't this prove my point the "adjusted" rankings are skewed based on strength of schedule? This has 5-7 Utah as a Top 10 defense this year and the 3 ranked teams they played they gave up 34 points per game (BYU, ISU, Colorado).

5-7 Utah had a very good defense. They were 5-7 because they had an offense that was ranked 120th in terms of efficiency. What Iowa fans have yet to understand is that good offenses score points against good defenses in today's game. Do you think PSU and Oregon have bad defenses? Final score was 45-37.

 

[RagnarLothbrok]

I didnt know Merriweather, Stone, and a few other guys like Belton and what's his name that escapes me right now who picked off that first pass against OSU in 2017 were local white guys. But I get your meaning. Maybe Schulte was very good also pre-snap yelling out coverages to other players which I saw him do a lot of when I was at games.

I said one safety position. Not the entire secondary.

And you’re thinking of Amani Hooker.

 

[Iafootballfan]

5-7 Utah had a very good defense. They were 5-7 because they had an offense that was ranked 120th in terms of efficiency. What Iowa fans have yet to understand is that good offenses score points against good defenses in today's game. Do you think PSU and Oregon have bad defenses? Final score was 45-37.

2023 Defense rank according to this site:
Iowa: 4th
- Opponent offenses ranked 60th
Bama: 8th
- Opponent offenses ranked 5th

You believe that Iowa had a better defense than Alabama last year? Essentially your argument is that you trust the computers properly adjusted the ranking even though we played significantly worse offensive opponents.

 

[Hawgk]

Doesn't this prove my point the "adjusted" rankings are skewed based on strength of schedule? This has 5-7 Utah as a Top 10 defense this year and the 3 ranked teams they played they gave up 34 points per game (BYU, ISU, Colorado).

I didn’t watch Utah this year, but maybe against those opponents their offense turned the ball over six times inside their own 25 yard line like Iowa did at the shoe a couple years back? Or maybe their offense strung together a dozen or so 3 and outs as was so common in final years of the BF era?

 

[Hawgk]

2023 Defense rank according to this site:
Iowa: 4th
- Opponent offenses ranked 60th
Bama: 8th
- Opponent offenses ranked 5th

You believe that Iowa had a better defense than Alabama last year? Essentially your argument is that you trust the computers properly adjusted the ranking even though we played significantly worse offensive opponents.

Bama and Iowa had one common opponent in 2023. How did each defense fare against that common opponent?

 

[Iafootballfan]

Bama and Iowa had one common opponent in 2023. How did each defense fare against that common opponent?

Anything can happen in one game, using data from 1 game versus 13 is not serious. I mean a team that went winless in the Big 12 this year beat Arkansas.

 

[LarryMullenJr.]

Bob Sanders or Quinn Schulte?



'Nuff said

 

[Hawgk]

Anything can happen in one game, using data from 1 game versus 13 is not serious. I mean a team that went winless in the Big 12 this year beat Arkansas.

The rankings you are dismissing take into account all games.

 

[Iafootballfan]

The rankings you are dismissing take into account all games.

I'm not dismissing them, I'm pointing out how they are flawed. A relevant comparison of Iowa vs Bama defense would be the following:

Iowa: Holds 50th ranked offense to 25 points and 4 ypp
Bama: Holds 10th ranked offense to 35 points and 6ypp

The computer does its best guess at which defense performed better. Ranks Iowa as the better defense based on pre-game predictive metrics. Over the course of 13 games this becomes skewed when it continues to be lopsided, agree or no?

 

[littlez]

This thread is ridiculous. Look at all of our 2-3 star players that are playing in the pros, especially the back line guys. Zero of those guys were highly recruited guys. And the majority of them can hit as well as cover. And for the white guys like Moss and DeJean, they're the only starting white corners in the NFL in what, the last 20 years? I think some of you are overreacting to some things this year. We held Mizzou to 2.7 yards per rush yesterday. Normally that's a winning formula but I do think Phil needs to reexamine his 3rd down defense. Way to many easy 3rd down conversions yesterday and overall this season. 3rd and long should be a way bigger % for your defense to get off the field. Against the better teams, and especially better QB's, you can't expect these teams to make mistakes like Big Ten West teams and QB's.

 

[jonesy5960]

2023 Defense rank according to this site:
Iowa: 4th
- Opponent offenses ranked 60th
Bama: 8th
- Opponent offenses ranked 5th

You believe that Iowa had a better defense than Alabama last year? Essentially your argument is that you trust the computers properly adjusted the ranking even though we played significantly worse offensive opponents.

I think they were probably comparable, with a slight edge to Iowa. Alabama gave up 34 more yards and 4 points more per game. Iowa was number one in the country at 3.9 yards per play allowed. Alabama at 19th in the country gave up nearly a full yard more at 4.8. That's a huge differential.

Common opponents? They both played Michigan at the end of last year. Iowa gave up 24 points and allowed 213 total yards giving up 2.8 yards per play. In reality, the defense only allowed 3 points. The rest was given up the the offense. Alabama allowed 351 total yards and 5.9 yards per play.

 

[jonesy5960]

I'm not dismissing them, I'm pointing out how they are flawed. A relevant comparison of Iowa vs Bama defense would be the following:

Iowa: Holds 50th ranked offense to 25 points and 4 ypp
Bama: Holds 10th ranked offense to 35 points and 6ypp

The computer does its best guess at which defense performed better. Ranks Iowa as the better defense based on pre-game predictive metrics. Over the course of 13 games this becomes skewed when it continues to be lopsided, agree or no?

It's not a guess. It's based on fixed metrics that are known to contribute/detract from defensive efficiency. You're the one that's guessing.

 

[Iafootballfan]

Common opponents? They both played Michigan at the end of last year. Iowa gave up 24 points and allowed 213 total yards giving up 2.8 yards per play. In reality, the the defense only allowed 3 points. The rest was given up the the offense. Alabama allowed 351 total yards and 5.9 yards per play.

No one is disputing this, what you're failing to understand is that in your example Michigan knows Alabama can score whereas Iowa could not. This completely changes how an offensive gameplan is designed. Teams are forced to throw the ball and put up points against someone like Alabama, they do not vs Iowa.

 

[HawkLogic]

The Iowa defense was not elite this year, that’s for sure, because the secondary was awful. The problem is you can’t just plug in anyone off the roster and expect them to perform like their predecessors regardless of how good of a coach you think Phil Parker is. He’s not a magician.

Outside of Jamari Harris, no one in Iowa’s secondary was worth a shit. Compound that by the fact X is a bust and Quinn Schulte has never had any business starting at safety (for some reason Kirk feels he needs to reserve at least one safety position for a local white boy), you have a recipe for a train wreck against any team competent in the passing game. And that’s exactly what happened this season.

In terms of prior years, when you look at how incompetent the Iowa offense was and how much the defense was on the field, I would say the defense played at a pretty elite level.

I largely agree, but Quinn Schulte was adequate when we had elite guys like Moss, DeJean at CB, so I wouldn't focus on him as a problem. He walked on and gave it his all, just not an elite natural athlete. This year's defense was sub-par for Phil and it is because the Jimmy's and Joes aren't as good. Next year looks worse. I do like Lewellyn at the DE. Graves is solid, but not a big time playmaker like some DTs we've had.

 

[Hawgk]

I'm not dismissing them, I'm pointing out how they are flawed. A relevant comparison of Iowa vs Bama defense would be the following:

Iowa: Holds 50th ranked offense to 25 points and 4 ypp
Bama: Holds 10th ranked offense to 35 points and 6ypp

The computer does its best guess at which defense performed better. Ranks Iowa as the better defense based on pre-game predictive metrics. Over the course of 13 games this becomes skewed when it continues to be lopsided, agree or no?

Maybe? The example you provided is not compelling, or really all that relevant to be honest. You’ll need to come up with something better.

 

[Iafootballfan]

Maybe? The example you provided is not compelling, or really all that relevant to be honest. You’ll need to come up with something better.

I presented the raw data earlier, you clearly don't like it. That's fine, no point in discussing further.

 

[herk u2]

The defense was down compared to what it has been the last few years but still not horrible. There is a ton to look at to see how well the defense actually played. I personally do like the adj metrics, it takes numerous things into consideration. Points per drive and avg yard per play are good ones as well although any number/ stat can be skewed.
So I looked at Iowas last few games against ranked opponents....Mizz avg 2.4ppd and 5.8ypp, season avg for them 5.3ypp. OSU avg 3.1ppd (iowa had 3 turnovers that resulted in OSU starting @ the iowa 19yd, 27yd and 40yd line). They avg 6.12ypp season avg for them 6.7ypp.
Tennessee had 2.3ppd (hill fumbled at the 2) they avg 5.3ypp season avg was 6.3ypp. Mich in the championship game avg 2ppd and 2.7ypp season avg was 6.1ypp.
Besides the game yesterday Iowa has held the other 3 teams to less then their season avg for ypp. Offense can play a big role in what a def gives up with turnovers and quick 3 and outs. Alabama is currently feeling the effects of the off turning it over and giving up short field position and pts to Michigan

 

[Hawgk]

I presented the raw data earlier, you clearly don't like it. That's fine, no point in discussing further.

I like the raw data. I trust it. It shows Iowa has had some outstanding defenses.

I don’t trust opinions that are pulled out of someone’s ass. Sorry if you don’t like that.