There’s probably more transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the last 30 days than there had been in any 30-day period in the entire pandemic

Urohawk

HR Heisman
Sep 30, 2001
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What are they saying about second boosters? CDC is recommending a 4th shot for people over 50. I got my booster in Nov and have been considering a second booster.
That's a harder policy to determine. Our hospital would recommend it but isn't requiring it because it's not applied universally amongst all employees. I think as soon as those under 50 are authorized for boosters they will make it a mandate.
 

artradley

HR Legend
Apr 26, 2013
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Totally agree with that too. We really shouldn’t pick and choose which points the experts make that we follow.

Many on each side have cherry picked information and ignored other. But it’s not as black and white as some of you try to pretend it is. How many times have people like you taunted people for not wanting to wear masks, completely ignoring the very real mental health and quality of life issues associated with masks; as well as social isolation, etc.? Or ignored the mental health and physical health issues associated with the economic fallouts from closing down businesses or putting up roadblocks for those businesses to succeed. Or ignored the deaths from other diseases because people were afraid to leave their homes to seek preventive or diagnostic care.

You ignore the downside of mitigation efforts, which is particularly egregious when it comes to mitigation efforts that didn’t really slow the spread. You pushed for draconian measures that were doomed to failure because you ignored human nature, and by so doing you turned people against even good, low cost measures. You even helped create the anti-Vaxxers, because instead of pushing to provide people with accurate information on how to assess their own risk and how to lessen their odds of contracting the disease, you pushed politicians to impose government restrictions and requirements. This attitude, a d the results it brought, IMO, caused more people to die than a pragmatic, sober approach would have.

We needed information and assistance. We got mandates and scolding.
 

Kenneth Griffin

HR Legend
Jan 13, 2012
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There is not one worthwhile statistical metric that supports the title of this thread. Not one. Congratulations on yet another completely worthless thread.

The title of the thread is a quote from Michael Osterholm an expert in infectious disease. Take it up with him.
 

Kenneth Griffin

HR Legend
Jan 13, 2012
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Many on each side have cherry picked information and ignored other. But it’s not as black and white as some of you try to pretend it is. How many times have people like you taunted people for not wanting to wear masks, completely ignoring the very real mental health and quality of life issues associated with masks; as well as social isolation, etc.? Or ignored the mental health and physical health issues associated with the economic fallouts from closing down businesses or putting up roadblocks for those businesses to succeed. Or ignored the deaths from other diseases because people were afraid to leave their homes to seek preventive or diagnostic care.

You ignore the downside of mitigation efforts, which is particularly egregious when it comes to mitigation efforts that didn’t really slow the spread. You pushed for draconian measures that were doomed to failure because you ignored human nature, and by so doing you turned people against even good, low cost measures. You even helped create the anti-Vaxxers, because instead of pushing to provide people with accurate information on how to assess their own risk and how to lessen their odds of contracting the disease, you pushed politicians to impose government restrictions and requirements. This attitude, a d the results it brought, IMO, caused more people to die than a pragmatic, sober approach would have.

We needed information and assistance. We got mandates and scolding.

I’m not ignoring anything, I’m saying for someone my age it makes sense to listen to what someone like Michael Osterholm is saying and doing.
 
Feb 9, 2013
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I’ve been told it is probably better to wait until fall, so your immunization will be higher should we experience a surge in the winter.
Yes, that’s what I was planning on doing, but then I’ve started seeing all these recommendations to get a new booster if it’s been more than 4 months since your last. Don’t really want to get one now and then again in the fall.
 

herkyhawk00

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Jan 28, 2008
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Have Public Health Officials Just Given Up on Covid-19?

We’re now in a very weird pandemic phase. On Twitter, doctors such as Eric Topol sound five-alarm warnings about the latest subvariants of omicron. Offline, even in blue states, people are back to parties, bars and restaurants — and will soon be flying around the world with no testing requirements to return to the US. Things feel as if they’ve lost any coherence. There’s no discernible strategy or guidance on what Covid precautions we should still be taking.

Danish social scientist Michael Bang Petersen, of Aarhus University, told me that familiarity with Covid is changing people’s attitudes. Many stopped fearing the virus once they contracted it and recovered. In Denmark, he said, studies show 80% of the population has been infected. Here in the US, a similar study showed about 60% had had Covid as of last February — before the latest wave started.

And people are taking cues from those around them. Social signals are really important, he said, so it’s very difficult to keep your guard up when others are going back to normal. Behavior can change in a cascading way. People wonder why they should bother if nobody else is. “That’s straight out of basic psychology of collective action,” said Bang Petersen.

Of course, some people are still being cautious and still have not caught Covid, such as epidemiologist Michael Osterholm of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy.

He wears an N95 mask in public, limits his social contacts, sometimes asks guests to test first, and avoids restaurants. “There’s probably more transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the last 30 days than there had been in any 30-day period in the entire pandemic,” he said.

He admits this is based on his own anecdotal observations. The important point is that nobody has a good idea how many cases are occurring out there because we’re seeing only a fraction of the tests that have been done. Many people are testing at home, and others may not be testing at all.

And that means it’s hard to adapt our behavior to the situation — the way public health officials urged us to do during previous waves. Osterholm added that compared with previous surges, there are relatively few deaths this time, so the death rate is getting closer to something people are used to seeing with flu. “We don’t really know for certain how to act,” Osterholm said. We’ve never been expected to change our everyday lives because of influenza. But that might all change again if the next variant is more dangerous.

Reporters at a Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Health press briefing this week wanted to know whether the pandemic was over. The answer, given by Tom Inglesby, MD, director of the Center for Health Security, was no. The other critical question was whether it still made sense to try to curb cases. Inglesby said it did — but stopped short of recommending universal masking or social distancing. He did stress ventilation, which could suppress superspreading events, as well as making sure high-quality masks are available for those who want them.

Bang Petersen said that, going forward, public health authorities need to acknowledge that those and other pandemic restrictions were costly, and not just in economic or educational terms. “We know from research that social isolation is something that has a number of costs in terms of well-being.” It’s bad for our mental and physical health. And constant mask-wearing is isolating. It’s hard to hear, to connect, to communicate with others.

That’s a point that often gets lost on scientists and public health experts. The fact that people are socializing again, without masks, doesn’t mean they’ve stopped caring about their health or the health of older, more vulnerable people. Socializing for many people isn’t something frivolous. It’s vital for their mental health.

So there’s hope for a more coherent future, Bang Petersen said, as long as public health officials take the social and emotional costs into account, and impose only rules or recommendations that have a substantial, science-backed benefit. That means pushing for better ventilation in buildings, creating more compelling booster campaigns, and issuing clearer guidelines to help older and more vulnerable people avoid unnecessary risks. And be prepared for future variants — by continuing to do the genetic sequencing needed to find them and planning for action if something more deadly crops up.

The pandemic’s end is not playing out in the jubilant way it was supposed to last year when the White House had planned to declare independence from Covid on July 4.

“I think people are just psychologically done with Covid,” Osterhom said. “If you look back at the 1918 experience … In 1918 and 1919, there were multiple waves, it wasn’t just 1918. And people were quite compliant with public health recommendations, limiting public gatherings, etc. By the spring of 1920 when it got just past a second year, people said, “Ah, forget it, you know, we’re going to move on.”
Trump is out of office now so it isn’t a big deal. Plus, Biden shut down the virus, didn’t he?
 
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dgordo

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Nov 15, 2001
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Chicago
I’ve been told it is probably better to wait until fall, so your immunization will be higher should we experience a surge in the winter.

there doesn’t seem to be a consensus which is frustrating. My dr is telling me to get the 4th shot as soon as eligible because we have no idea what Covid will look like in the fall and the strain might be even more resistant to the current vaccines while we know it offers a benefit still now.
 
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HawkeyeShawn

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Nov 9, 2001
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The current terminology is as follows:

Received one shot of the two-shot series = vaccinated

Received the complete initial series = fully vaccinated

Received booster within the past five months = up to date with vaccinations
So after 3 shots, since it’s been 5 months, I’m now considered unvaccinated. That makes for a lot of people “unvaccinated” who haven’t received their 4th shot. Only 16.3M have received their 2nd booster. That’s a lot of people “unvaccinated”.
 

The Tradition

HR King
Apr 23, 2002
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So after 3 shots, since it’s been 5 months, I’m now considered unvaccinated. That makes for a lot of people “unvaccinated” who haven’t received their 4th shot. Only 16.3M have received their 2nd booster. That’s a lot of people “unvaccinated”.

No, you're fully vaccinated, but not up to date.
 

HawkeyeShawn

HR Heisman
Nov 9, 2001
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Why do you have him on ignore? He’s been all right from what I’ve seen, maybe a bit overexcited about the president.
Chis is not all right. He received my personal ban hammer during the Ukraine war thread, as did a few others. My HORT experience has improved tremendously. Anyone paying attention over the last several years knows that chis is not “all right”.
 

GroupThink

HR All-State
May 3, 2022
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Chis is not all right. He received my personal ban hammer during the Ukraine war thread, as did a few others. My HORT experience has improved tremendously. Anyone paying attention over the last several years knows that chis is not “all right”.
What’s wrong with him? He’s like a left wing trumper. Tolerable and entertaining.
 

artradley

HR Legend
Apr 26, 2013
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I’m not ignoring anything, I’m saying for someone my age it makes sense to listen to what someone like Michael Osterholm is saying and doing.

I am talking about past behavior. You can’t ignore a big chunk of evidence for two years, then suddenly tell everyone to follow the evidence as if that’s what you have been doing from the start; or as if that’s all you are doing now.
 

kc78

HR MVP
Nov 25, 2002
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For me it's all about hospitalizations and death count. Those numbers seem very manageable right now, and those who do get Covid aren't dying at the rate they once were. So yes, I'd say we just live our lives as best we can. At some point this will move from pandemic to endemic and we'll live with it like we do the flu and other viruses.
 
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TJ8869

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Dec 7, 2006
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The title of the thread is a quote from Michael Osterholm an expert in infectious disease. Take it up with him.
Since Mike isn’t here, I’m taking it up with the guy who created a thread featuring the quote as the title and who inexplicably
continues to defend the quote.
 

Kenneth Griffin

HR Legend
Jan 13, 2012
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Since Mike isn’t here, I’m taking it up with the guy who created a thread featuring the quote as the title and who inexplicably
continues to defend the quote.

I suspect he knows more than you so I’ll take his word for it. Thanks
 

Kenneth Griffin

HR Legend
Jan 13, 2012
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I am talking about past behavior. You can’t ignore a big chunk of evidence for two years, then suddenly tell everyone to follow the evidence as if that’s what you have been doing from the start; or as if that’s all you are doing now.

I’ve consistently followed the advice of the cdc, my doctor and infectious disease experts. They didn’t get everything right with a novel virus but it’s been better than most.
 

artradley

HR Legend
Apr 26, 2013
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I’ve consistently followed the advice of the cdc, my doctor and infectious disease experts. They didn’t get everything right with a novel virus but it’s been better than most.

You certainly have not advocated policy based on best possible results given the totality of information we have from health experts, psychologists, economists, pediatricians, etc. You advocated public policy that was narrowly focused and damaging.
 

The Tradition

HR King
Apr 23, 2002
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Something else that's different today than it was in prior surges: we have effective treatments now.

You just have to start the treatment within 5 days of the onset of symptoms.
 
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Kenneth Griffin

HR Legend
Jan 13, 2012
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I’ll take the documented fact that hospitalizations are down significantly and daily deaths have decreased by more than 90% compared to the beginning of the year over Mike’s anecdotal observations. Thanks.

He didn’t say hospitalizations and deaths were up compared to the beginning of the year. He said there are relatively few deaths this time, so the death rate is getting closer to something people are used to seeing with flu.