There's No Reason For B1G to Expand

[SchwartzUndGold]

There is a tendency to think along the lines that there should be four pods of sixteen teams. That is fallacy thinking. If ESPN's goal was to get to four pods of 16 teams they will succeed when or if Tx and Ok become members of the SEC even if the B1G, Pac12, and ACC do nothing. They have sewed up the big goal of four (4) pods with 58 teams represented. I'll grant you that there are some teams that will get excluded from the 4 pods that are better than some in the four pods. However, those excluded teams still can make the expanded playoff by winning their way in. The biggest problem they face is "MONEY" . The TV rights for a newly constituted conference or a realigned conference are really impaired when you consider the population of the states involved. It is why the remaining Big 12 members are scrambling for spots that do not even exist, it is purely for the money.

If any conference has spots it is probably the PAC 12. The Big Ten and ACC need "NONE". There just are not any candidates for the Big Ten that can move the needle other than Notre Dame, which has a long term commitment to the ACC. Your only subtracting by adding, in a sense the law of diminishing returns. My advice don't get sucked into the idea that you need four pods of 16 teams. It isn't necessary. If you haven't read Frank the Tank article it is explained real well.

 

[His Hawkness]

Yep, makes zero sense for the B1G to expand if it isn't ND or some other team that moves the needle from a national perspective. I would be severely disappointed if they added two Big 12 teams just for the sake of getting to 16 teams. Hold tight at 14 for now and don't do anything drastic.

 

[HerkyFan]

Only expand when there is value in doing it. You are right why is getting to 16 such a big deal?

 

[anon_bb9wlf9kj42py]

The only reason to expand would be if the networks want you to, and I doubt they want you to.

 

[Auger]

I agree unless Notre Dame is interested in being added.

A lot of speculation is this could actually benefit the AAC tremendously by adding Okie St, Kansas, Baylor, Iowa St and either Kansas St, or Texas Tech. Would make them a top basketball confernce and even better at football. The extra money could be what current programs like Houston, Memphis, Cincinnati, UCF and South Florida need to take that next step. If that happens the B1G might then go in and poach a team or two a few years down the road.

 

[fezzador]

Yep, makes zero sense for the B1G to expand if it isn't ND or some other team that moves the needle from a national perspective. I would be severely disappointed if they added two Big 12 teams just for the sake of getting to 16 teams. Hold tight at 14 for now and don't do anything drastic.

Wish we had Barry Alvarez running the conference instead of Kevin Warren. But I guess as long as King Barry is holding KW's hand maybe the B1G can at least remain intact.

ND has been and will always be the B1G's top target as it checks every single box, save for AAU membership. Other than that, any other candidates need to be schools with a history of success, large and/or powerful alumni bases and preferably located in fertile recruiting grounds. USC, UCLA, Texas, Texas A&M, Virginia, North Carolina, NC State, Georgia Tech, Florida, and Miami are the programs the B1G needs to woo. Duke, Virginia Tech, Florida State, and other "second tier" schools should only be considered if the primary target demands they be included as some sort of package deal.

That being said, the B1G really could do a lot worse than Kansas, Iowa State, etc. They can contribute something on the field/court, but they just don't do a blessed thing when establishing the B1G as a truly national brand rather than regional.

 

[Hawktruck]

Agree with OP. Dan Wetzle is reporting that the PAC 12 and B1G are in talks to schedule non con games. If this is true, and an agreement could be reached that each team schedules two non com games with the other league (adjusting for the difference in the number of teams in the Pac 12 and B1G) this would command higher TV dollars. Fox will pay out more dollars if guaranteed matchups like tOSU vs USC, Mich vs UCLA, Stanford vs Iowa, etc, rather than the current matchups vs the directional school of the week.

So you would get the benefit of additional dollars without the pains of conference realignment.

 

[Camhawk2012]

The only reason to expand would be if the networks want you to, and I doubt they want you to.

that makes no sense.

 

[hawkfeever]

Agree with OP. Dan Wetzle is reporting that the PAC 12 and B1G are in talks to schedule non con games. If this is true, and an agreement could be reached that each team schedules two non com games with the other league (adjusting for the difference in the number of teams in the Pac 12 and B1G) this would command higher TV dollars. Fox will pay out more dollars if guaranteed matchups like tOSU vs USC, Mich vs UCLA, Stanford vs Iowa, etc, rather than the current matchups vs the directional school of the week.

So you would get the benefit of additional dollars without the pains of conference realignment.

We had this deal in place maybe 10 or 15 years ago but the PAC backed out of it.

 

[Auger]

We had this deal in place maybe 10 or 15 years ago but the PAC backed out of it.

May have no choice now. PAC needs the extra money. Always thought Iowa vs Utah would be fun. Utah plays a B1G style of football.

 

[SoDakHawk]

Agree with OP. Dan Wetzle is reporting that the PAC 12 and B1G are in talks to schedule non con games. If this is true, and an agreement could be reached that each team schedules two non com games with the other league (adjusting for the difference in the number of teams in the Pac 12 and B1G) this would command higher TV dollars. Fox will pay out more dollars if guaranteed matchups like tOSU vs USC, Mich vs UCLA, Stanford vs Iowa, etc, rather than the current matchups vs the directional school of the week.

So you would get the benefit of additional dollars without the pains of conference realignment.

Two non-conference games with PAC teams. I'm assuming home/away. That will be really cool.

So let's look at a potential future Iowa football schedule:

9 conference games - 5 Home/4 Road alternating
1 PAC at Home
1 PAC on Road
1 Remaining game to schedule

That 1 remaining game to schedule will have to be a home game every single year to get to that "magical" 7 home games a year. Even then, every other year we'll only have 6 home games. With ISU being demoted to G6 status it means we can say goodbye to the ISU series unless they are willing to play every year at IOWA.

 

[Buck2427]

I could see maybe the BIG adding Cal, USC, UCLA and Oregon and setting up this conference set up:

BIG EAST
OSU
PSU
MSU
Ind
Pur
ILL
Mary
Rut
Weasels (UMich)
BIG WEST
USC
UCLA
CAL
Oregon
Wisc
Iowa
Neb
Minn
NW

 

[SoDakHawk]

Dan Patrick currently reporting a lot of juice on this topic.

- BIG and PAC set up a merger. This makes sense based on what we've heard about the BIG/PAC scheduling games. The two conferences want to preserve their Rose Bowl relationship.
- Half the ACC wants nothing to do with the SEC due to academics but would be open to the BIG.
- Notre Dame has a meeting scheduled to discuss the future. They are open to joining the ACC but not if it ends up aligned with the SEC. In that case they would prefer the BIG.

 

[Auger]

Dan Patrick currently reporting a lot of juice on this topic.

- BIG and PAC set up a merger. This makes sense based on what we've heard about the BIG/PAC scheduling games. The two conferences want to preserve their Rose Bowl relationship.
- Half the ACC wants nothing to do with the SEC due to academics but would be open to the BIG.
- Notre Dame has a meeting scheduled to discuss the future. They are open to joining the ACC but not if it ends up aligned with the SEC. In that case they would prefer the BIG.

Could see the ACC split up. If the B1G and PAC join together to schedule games will force the ACC's hand. If the B1G, PAC, Notre Dame and most the ACC band together it will take away a lot of the SEC's power.

 

[David1979]

BIG should take Notre Dame and KU. Two of the most historic programs in college sports.

 

[Win5002]

Dan Patrick currently reporting a lot of juice on this topic.

- BIG and PAC set up a merger. This makes sense based on what we've heard about the BIG/PAC scheduling games. The two conferences want to preserve their Rose Bowl relationship.
- Half the ACC wants nothing to do with the SEC due to academics but would be open to the BIG.
- Notre Dame has a meeting scheduled to discuss the future. They are open to joining the ACC but not if it ends up aligned with the SEC. In that case they would prefer the BIG.

The B1G is NOT doing a merger with the PAC 12! The B1G may very well take USC and 4-5 other teams. You can't take the dead weight in the PAC 12.

 

[SoDakHawk]

The B1G is NOT doing a merger with the PAC 12! The B1G may very well take USC and 4-5 other teams. You can't take the dead weight in the PAC 12.

Call it a scheduling alliance like the BIG/ACC Challenge in basketball then. It makes sense as those games would garner a lot of eyeballs and would be valuable to the TV people. They don't have to be conference games. This would allow the BIG to throw the PAC a lifeline, and some cash, without altering CFB irreparably. It also strengthens that tie BIG/PAC/Rose Bowl.

 

[M3 ME PLEASE]

BIG should take Notre Dame and KU. Two of the most historic programs in college sports.

No, they absolutely should not add KU. You wanna tempt Ohio state to leave? Adding the worst power five football program and making Ohio state give them a piece of the pie would be idiotic, basketball is irrelevant.

You stay at 14 unless you can go land a big time program like ND, Clemson, USC, etc.

 

[LaQuintaHawkeye]

I actually think you do need to expand.

I agree that ND would be the prize addition, most likely would need to be paired with one of their traditional rivals like Boston College (or USC - which won’t happen).

Barring that, you need to go for a Texas A&M/Missouri combo …both AAU schools and expands conference footprint logically.

And yes, I feel that they would be open to leaving the SEC …the $$$ is the same and the competition (on the football field anyway) is far more equitable for them. They could have a far better chance competing in the B1G than the SEC, especially now that 2 more big dogs are joining.

 

[hawkfeever]

BIG should take Notre Dame and KU. Two of the most historic programs in college sports.

All about the future, not the past.

 

[anon_p5xhdxl4apz5n]

Totally agree, thats why you all should be supporting Wild Country National Collegiate Association, it solves all your problems and you never have to play Iowa St or UNI again.

 

[Auger]

The B1G and PAC scheduling 1-2 non cons every year would be a good way to increase revenue and stay competitive with the SEC super conference. Would protect the two conferences as well. ACC would be stuck in the middle of everything and could be the next to crumble if Clemson and Florida St get anxious.

 

[Fighter of the Nightman]

I agree that we should sit on this; there is at least absolutely no reason to accept an Iowa State or Oklahoma State. That isn’t meant as disrespectful to those teams or their fans (both are so much better than Illinois at football, it isn’t even funny, and I genuinely feel for their passionate fans … shit ain’t fair), but any new team needs to add enough revenue that it outweighs another mouth to feed … and that means either:

1) A team with enough of a following in a new, big market that the BTN isn’t already in so we get all that cable money (still massively important, even with cord cutting).

1.5) A school with enough of a POTENTIAL following in a big market so as to make the upside worth it. See: Rutgers … their revenue might be shit now, but one must take into account just how bad they are and how correspondingly bad their attendance has been (i.e., huge loss of money). They have proven in the modern era that if they’re good, they can pack their stadium and generate ratings in the NYC market (much of which is in NJ, let’s not forget), and that helps all of us.

2) An AAU school with academics that will increase the conference’s already elite research funding.

3) A school with SUCH a massive football revenue stream (almost certainly due to a huge national bandwagon following, assuming Requirement #1 isn’t part of the equation) that it makes up for the lack of market or academics.

I personally hate it as a fan, but those seem to be all that matter. I yearn for the “old days,” even as a pretty young fan, but this stuff has become so cutthroat that it’s survival of the fittest. Taking Kansas just to mirror the SEC is stupid. I literally only accept two of these schools:

- Notre Dame (duh duh duh)
- Texas A&M (how pissed are they??)
- North Carolina/Virginia (great schools with good markets and decent revenues)
- Colorado (Denver cable money plus opens up Western recruiting and gives other B1G schools a free showcase in the area in front of what will often seem like neutral site crowds)

I would have said Syracuse if we didn’t already add Rutgers, which was likely the better choice of the two (even if SU has more fans in NYC, which I believe they do). Then, obviously several Pac-12 schools would be home runs on paper (UCLA, Washington, Cal, etc.), but I do worry about travel logistics.

 

[Win5002]

I actually think you do need to expand.

I agree that ND would be the prize addition, most likely would need to be paired with one of their traditional rivals like Boston College (or USC - which won’t happen).

Barring that, you need to go for a Texas A&M/Missouri combo …both AAU schools and expands conference footprint logically.

And yes, I feel that they would be open to leaving the SEC …the $$$ is the same and the competition (on the football field anyway) is far more equitable for them. They could have a far better chance competing in the B1G than the SEC, especially now that 2 more big dogs are joining.

What? You want to believe its more likely Texas A&M & Missouri leave the SEC than USC the PAC 12? The PAC 12 revenues lagged the Big 12 and UT & OU came to the conclusion with NIL and future tv contracts they couldn't make it making a lot more than USC, why can USC, OR, UW, UCLA afford it in the PAC 12?

The B1G could use the access to football recruits in California and build off old Rose Bowl rivalries for ratings, I would also try and add one Arizona team possibly also(that state is getting a growing number of recruits). FOX would probably like the matchups if they only took 6 teams. Finally, the BTN could fill live programming in the 9CST/10 EST time slot. The right additions are a selling point for ND.

 

[David1979]

No, they absolutely should not add KU. You wanna tempt Ohio state to leave? Adding the worst power five football program and making Ohio state give them a piece of the pie would be idiotic, basketball is irrelevant.

You stay at 14 unless you can go land a big time program like ND, Clemson, USC, etc.

Its about Revenue and KU generates Revenue. OSU isn't leaving and they aren't adding USC or Clemson. People just think of their bad football team and think that means they don't make a lot of money. They do. In addition, you can't base the decision on football wins and losses because in that scenario ISU has been good under campbell so you can add them. You can't.
KU makes the third most money in the Big 12 despite not having a good football team. They have a national brand that generates revenue for the conference. They are 28th in total revenue pre pandemic. If they were in the Big Ten they would be top 17th about ten mill away from. If they were to even get a mediocre football team they would pull in revenues likely more than Iowa.
Basketball is only irrelevant to most of the schools but there are a few that are game changers in terms of Revenue KU is one. And again, Big Ten Network is highly dependent on basketball. This would help the Big Ten a great deal.

Also let's remember, SEC is trying to catch up to the Big Ten here because the Big Ten is the premier conference when it comes to generating revenue. They don't need to make crazy moves. Why do you think they added Rutgers and Maryland? Hint, it wasn't for their programs. It was to generate revenue. That is what Kansas would do and remains in the footprint. Big Ten is also huge on history and tradition. Both schools fit that bill. I do think they will also form a scheduling pact with Pac 12. We could be seeing the end of the ISU Iowa game.

 

[David1979]

I actually think you do need to expand.

I agree that ND would be the prize addition, most likely would need to be paired with one of their traditional rivals like Boston College (or USC - which won’t happen).

Barring that, you need to go for a Texas A&M/Missouri combo …both AAU schools and expands conference footprint logically.

And yes, I feel that they would be open to leaving the SEC …the $$$ is the same and the competition (on the football field anyway) is far more equitable for them. They could have a far better chance competing in the B1G than the SEC, especially now that 2 more big dogs are joining.

I don't think they are leaving the SEC.

 

[kcgolfer]

The B1G is NOT doing a merger with the PAC 12! The B1G may very well take USC and 4-5 other teams. You can't take the dead weight in the PAC 12.

It’s about TV markets. California, Denver, Oregon, Washington and AZ. Not bad!

 

[Win5002]

It’s about TV markets. California, Denver, Oregon, Washington and AZ. Not bad!

Don't forget football recruits, the B1G trails the SEC by a lot.

 

[BigHawk]

Everything is driven by money.

Big rumor flying at the moment is an ACC and SEC merger. The thought on this is with hoops and football, it would create THE biggest revenue generating conference ever.

I think that does speak to the university presidents.

From a Big ten perspective, throwing a feeler to USC and UCLA and the Los Angeles tv market wouldn't be a wasted effort. And, both schools are highly recognized academically

 

[silasstarr]

Wish we had Barry Alvarez running the conference instead of Kevin Warren. But I guess as long as King Barry is holding KW's hand maybe the B1G can at least remain intact.

ND has been and will always be the B1G's top target as it checks every single box, save for AAU membership. Other than that, any other candidates need to be schools with a history of success, large and/or powerful alumni bases and preferably located in fertile recruiting grounds. USC, UCLA, Texas, Texas A&M, Virginia, North Carolina, NC State, Georgia Tech, Florida, and Miami are the programs the B1G needs to woo. Duke, Virginia Tech, Florida State, and other "second tier" schools should only be considered if the primary target demands they be included as some sort of package deal.

That being said, the B1G really could do a lot worse than Kansas, Iowa State, etc. They can contribute something on the field/court, but they just don't do a blessed thing when establishing the B1G as a truly national brand rather than regional.

I asked someone last week why people hate Warren so much but I never got an answer. Is it all about him being on the side of caution with Covid last fall? Is there something else I missed? He was hand picked by Delaney, if I recall correctly and he also gave Warren glowing reviews.

 

[Metuo Accipiter]

I asked someone last week why people hate Warren so much but I never got an answer. Is it all about him being on the side of caution with Covid last fall? Is there something else I missed? He was hand picked by Delaney, if I recall correctly and he also gave Warren glowing reviews.

Where did you hear/read he was picked by Delaney? I don't remember reading that. I heard recently that when the Big 10 formed a committee of AD's to find the next Big 10 commissioner - he wasn't even on the list of recommended replacements. The Big 10 Presidents went rogue and picked their own candidate without support from the AD's. (Gene Smith discussed this at the Big 10 meeting in Indiana last week)

Gene Smith on Delaney hire

 

[Slappy Pappy]

Everything is driven by money.

Big rumor flying at the moment is an ACC and SEC merger. The thought on this is with hoops and football, it would create THE biggest revenue generating conference ever.

I think that does speak to the university presidents.

From a Big ten perspective, throwing a feeler to USC and UCLA and the Los Angeles tv market wouldn't be a wasted effort. And, both schools are highly recognized academically

That's just dumb. What's the point? You can't have 24 team conferences. Do the matchups get more valuable? (Oooo, look, Virginia vs. Miss. St.!) Are they going to a 16 game schedule? Networks aren't going to pay more than what the individual games are still worth.

 

[silasstarr]

Where did you hear/read he was picked by Delaney? I don't remember reading that. I heard recently that when the Big 10 formed a committee of AD's to find the next Big 10 commissioner - he wasn't even on the list of recommended replacements. The Big 10 Presidents went rogue and picked their own candidate without support from the AD's. (Gene Smith discussed this at the Big 10 meeting in Indiana last week)

Gene Smith on Delaney hire

I certainly could be remembering that incorrectly, but I do recall Delaney singing Warren's praises.

 

[timinatoria]

No, they absolutely should not add KU. You wanna tempt Ohio state to leave? Adding the worst power five football program and making Ohio state give them a piece of the pie would be idiotic, basketball is irrelevant.

You stay at 14 unless you can go land a big time program like ND, Clemson, USC, etc.

THIS!

Take a look at the TV ratings for some of the KU football game. Some of their games had less than 300,000 viewers! They are an absolute DRAG on the Big 12 football ratings.

 

[SoDakHawk]

The BIG has the luxury of waiting here. In fact, waiting applies a lot of pressure on a lot of schools. Wait and plan the next move.

Also, releasing the Big 12 leftovers into the wilderness and having them fend for themselves for a while is like a modern day Thunder Dome. Put them all in a cage and see which one rises to the top, then we can choose which one we invite, if any.

Big rumor flying at the moment is an ACC and SEC merger. The thought on this is with hoops and football, it would create THE biggest revenue generating conference ever.

This was on Dan Patrick this morning and his source (the one that nailed the Big Ten Covid fiasco last year) informed him that half the ACC schools want nothing to do with SEC academics. If the ACC breaks apart half the schools will go BIG and half will go SEC.

None of this will happen for another decade though as the ACC GOR runs until 2036. That is unless the ACC schools see the vast revenue difference between them and the BIG/SEC and they can't allow that to persist for over a decade, that money will compound and add up over time. They might just decide to break up the conference and go their separate ways. The end game could go down quite orderly, to be honest.

 

[SWIowahawks]

My only question with merging with the PAC-12 is game times. Does the conference give up 11 AM games? How many 9 PM kick offs do we see and does that hurt ratings for the Big Ten teams?

 

[SoDakHawk]

My only question with merging with the PAC-12 is game times. Does the conference give up 11 AM games? How many 9 PM kick offs do we see and does that hurt ratings for the Big Ten teams?

I don't think it will be a full on merger. I think it will be a scheduling alliance that provides content for TV at increased $$. The BIG would have conference content at one price, BIG/PAC content at another price, and OOC content at another price.

Getting into the Eastern and Central time zones helps the PAC. The BIG getting exposure out West helps them (better to play the PAC than the MAC). Game times could be 11 AM kickoffs for BIG home games, 3 PM for PAC or BIG home games, 7 PM for PAC or BIG home games. We don't necessarily have to play out West late at night, though we could and own that 9PM time slot. Instead of just PAC fans and football junkies watching Sark After Dark you'd have BIG Ten fans now paying attention to those late games too. In the end you have lots of options for game times and how to maximize eyeballs all day.

 

[kceasthawk]

I actually think you do need to expand.

I agree that ND would be the prize addition, most likely would need to be paired with one of their traditional rivals like Boston College (or USC - which won’t happen).

Barring that, you need to go for a Texas A&M/Missouri combo …both AAU schools and expands conference footprint logically.

And yes, I feel that they would be open to leaving the SEC …the $$$ is the same and the competition (on the football field anyway) is far more equitable for them. They could have a far better chance competing in the B1G than the SEC, especially now that 2 more big dogs are joining.

Me likey....

 

[LaQuintaHawkeye]

From a Big ten perspective, throwing a feeler to USC and UCLA and the Los Angeles tv market wouldn't be a wasted effort. And, both schools are highly recognized academically

I have no idea, but I’m sure the BIG 4 Cali schools would need to be a package deal. If so we could always make room by dropping some red/white/black baggage off the train first.

 

[kceasthawk]

I have no idea, but I’m sure the BIG 4 Cali schools would need to be a package deal. If so we could always make room by dropping some red/white/black baggage off the train first.

Kind of hard though, giving up another sure win EVERY year....