Down to 60 k from 68k. The death total now is 37k or close to it. I find that interesting as that would indicate the worst is behind us.
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They lowered the projected death count again
- Thread starter hawkeye54545
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This model is garbage, I have no idea why this is being advertised as the only model decisions should be made off of.
Yeah, the models show an abrupt decline at the end of May. They seem to basically know what they’re doing with these projections, so fingers crossed.
Based on what we're doing right now. If we "liberate" states too soon, that number will go up.
I agree. This is where I feel individual governors are going to earn their pay. That happy medium between squashing the virus and getting the economy going will be their defining moments.
this is bull because nobody is doing what they think we are doing. we are like little kids in grade school. we are taking off the mask when the teacher is not looking. we only wash our hands when they tell us to
From what I’ve seen with these models nothing gives me confidence that they know what they’re doing
Nice! Morning drinking is awesome
Can't drink all day if you don't start early!
To be fair, OiT is in his bunker (mom's basement) with the doors and windows locked. He knows what the conspiracy web sites tell him.
What’s this “we” crap? You’re not one of those nasty bastards that don’t wash their hands after dropping a deuce are you?
Interestingly, the latest run of the model predicts anywhere from 34K to 140K with 60K on the center line.
But we already have more than 34K.
Time to run that model again.
you probably shouldn’t. Obesity appears to be the No. 1 risk factor to a fatal case of Covid-19
I like how you can look at a room full of people wearing masks and confidently say "No one here is wearing masks." It's a real talent.
This sentence from the article you linked disappoints me. Maybe the model is bad, but can we just stop this BS.
The chief reason the IHME projections worry some experts, Etzioni said, is that “the fact that they overshot” — initially projecting up to 240,000 U.S. deaths, compared with fewer than 70,000 now — “will be used to suggest that the government response prevented an even greater catastrophe, when in fact the predictions were shaky in the first place.”
Lets say they are way off and we double that to 120,000 deaths. That comes out to .036% of the population in the US. Im sorry, but at this point, what the fvck are we doing here? Time to open it back up. Sorry but collapsing the entire economy over this is bananas.
in austin it's about 50%. so not everyone. plus our mayor said homeless folks are exempt so all you gotta do is say you are homeless and they let you slide...if they catch you maskless
It isn’t if we realize what is actually behind the shutdowns.
As it did in Denver after WWI:
Those idiot protesters are going to get the football season cancelled.
Then stay your ass at home. problem solved.
I know how you meant that but I actually think that will be the approach.
If you are old and have comorbidities than it will be on you to SIP. If you are one of those who are afraid of everything it will be a trying time.
The time for the healthy and young to get back to work and school is near IMO.
Ill take my chances, did you not see the percentage of people to die from it? If you're scared that's fine, and you have every right to hide at home. Let the men get back to work.
No point in schools reconvening till the fall but yeah, May is a good time to start the gradual reopening.
No, it's a simple numbers game and logic. Small businesses, such as mine, are getting fvcked over. The government has completely failed with bailouts. If people want to continue to SIP, let them. It's time for the government to get the fvck out of the way.
Because the curve has followed their projections pretty closely so far, with numbers within a pretty reasonable margin of error.
I don't think we can determine if the death count is correct until @joesplace agrees. He's the expert on this. He's actually a legend.
This model is just stupid. For one thing it only takes Denver Colorado into account. Any idiot knows the flu doesn't peak in October.As it did in Denver after WWI:
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