They lowered the projected death count again

[Finance85]

I don't think Liberals are wishing for more death I think they are wishing for more virus panic To hurt Trump in November

I don't believe that.

I think many liberals are liberals because they believe in the notion that government is there, not just to help people, but to solve every problem. In general, liberals favor some level of government control over personal responsibility. Government has to be in control because people are too stupid to do anything right without being told they have to. Just see the Beach thread for proof.

The road to hell is paved with good intentions.

I have a liberal side. I believe in a safety net. Where I part with most liberals is I think it should be at the state / local level.

I think most liberals simply love government control. Any harm to Trump getting re-elected is just a bonus.

 

[ottumwan in tx]

I don't believe that.

I think many liberals are liberals because they believe in the notion that government is there, not just to help people, but to solve every problem. In general, liberals favor some level of government control over personal responsibility. Government has to be in control because people are too stupid to do anything right without being told they have to. Just see the Beach thread for proof.

The road to hell is paved with good intentions.

I have a liberal side. I believe in a safety net. Where I part with most liberals is I think it should be at the state / local level.

I think most liberals simply love government control. Any harm to Trump getting re-elected is just a bonus.

well this is probably true they do believe in control and government control but they really prefer it be liberal government control

 

[ottumwan in tx]

I thought I was liberal until I was in my late twenties or early thirties and everybody in my family is liberal Ottumwa is very liberal then I moved to New York and a lot of liberals out New York

 

[luvmyhawks]

This is the perfect time for the wnba to start their season..

The stadiums are usually empty so no one will notice the difference and people will tune in on tv desperate to watch sports

hmmmmm........ I’m desperate, but not quite that desperate.

 

[luvmyhawks]

I thought I was liberal until I was in my late twenties or early thirties and everybody in my family is liberal Ottumwa is very liberal then I moved to New York and a lot of liberals out New York

When did you stop using punctuation?

 

[ottumwan in tx]

When did you stop using punctuation?

when I started getting on the interwebs probably 1996-97

 

[Kakaw83]

I'm just curious of other small business owners problems in this mess. Just curious what you do and how the bailouts failed you?

I own a solar company. No grant or payroll money for us. I have employees that we had to lay off 3 weeks ago still haven't gotten any unemployment money. It's a fvcking shit show. The government completely fvcked this up, hard to believe I know.

 

[luvmyhawks]

when I started getting on the interwebs probably 1996-97

no shit? Guess I need to pay better attention.

 

[cwh78]

I own a solar company. No grant or payroll money for us. I have employees that we had to lay off 3 weeks ago still haven't gotten any unemployment money. It's a fvcking shit show. The government completely fvcked this up, hard to believe I know.

 

[ottumwan in tx]

no shit? Guess I need to pay better attention.

yeah I'm probably the most notorious person round here for not ever using punctuation and doing long run on sentences and babbling on and on forever and ever and people call me a spammer and I'm probably posting way too much and I have over a hundred k or so posts probably a lot of nutty stuff and Babbling
on and on

 

[ottumwan in tx]

I own a solar company. No grant or payroll money for us. I have employees that we had to lay off 3 weeks ago still haven't gotten any unemployment money. It's a fvcking shit show. The government completely fvcked this up, hard to believe I know.

I own a courier company and The Big Box store or shop that I do deliveries for has just furloughed a bunch of people and they are applying for unemployment but I'll bet it's going to be awhile till they see any money.

 

[cwh78]

I'm really sorry to hear that. Is there a reason that solar didn't qualify for the payroll protection? I own an industrial automation company and we were fortunate enough to get it. Our banker was on top of it and it took redoing applications 4 or so times, because nobody had a clue to start.
I hope things get back open for your company.

 

[thewop]

This model is just stupid. For one thing it only takes Denver Colorado into account. Any idiot knows the flu doesn't peak in October.

Also, how many people lived in Denver in 1918? The difference between 60 and 70 deaths per 100k in a town of 200k isnt very scientific.

Bad example

 

[hawkedoff]

I‘M sorry you are involuntarily celibate

Me telling you no doesn't mean in celibate.

Take a shower and brush your teeth dude. And hit on guys that are actually gay. Will improve your chances despite you looking like Weinstein.

 

[Kakaw83]

I'm really sorry to hear that. Is there a reason that solar didn't qualify for the payroll protection? I own an industrial automation company and we were fortunate enough to get it. Our banker was on top of it and it took redoing applications 4 or so times, because nobody had a clue to start.
I hope things get back open for your company.

I’m not the finance guy, but from what I understand there were more people in line before us and the money ran out. We’re hoping for the next round of bailout money but who knows when the fvck that will drop. This whole thing has left a real bad taste in my mouth and I may be letting my emotions get the best of me, but at this point my only concern is getting back to work. It’s unfortunate there will be casualties due to reopening too soon but everything I’ve busted my ass to build is on the line.

 

[Joes Place]

From what I’ve seen with these models nothing gives me confidence that they know what they’re doing

Two things you need to understand:

• This IMHE model is using a "new" method, never before validated
• Neither of the two traditional metrics used in conventional models are integrated into anything they are doing.

 

[cwh78]

Yeah, it's a stupid time for any of the people we trust as leaders

I’m not the finance guy, but from what I understand there were more people in line before us and the money ran out. We’re hoping for the next round of bailout money but who knows when the fvck that will drop. This whole thing has left a real bad taste in my mouth and I may be letting my emotions get the best of me, but at this point my only concern is getting back to work. It’s unfortunate there will be casualties due to reopening too soon but everything I’ve busted my ass to build is on the line.

I wish you the best of luck through this.
Thanks for letting me know what you're going through. You'll get through this it
Isn't going to last forever. If it does I may elbow bump you in a soup line!!

 

[Joes Place]

The time for the healthy and young to get back to work and school is near IMO.

No. It is not.

You can thank your WH inaction and inability to respond to the crisis ensuring we are not yet prepared to reopen.

 

[cwh78]

Two things you need to understand:

• This IMHE model is using a "new" method, never before validated
• Neither of the two traditional metrics used in conventional models are integrated into anything they are doing.

What are the traditional metrics and any idea why they aren't being implemented in this case?

 

[Joes Place]

What are the traditional metrics and any idea why they aren't being implemented in this case?

Traditional equations used to model pandemic outbreaks.
No idea why this site isn't utilizing them; they 'want to do something new'.

 

[cwh78]

Traditional equations used to model pandemic outbreaks.
No idea why this site isn't utilizing them; they 'want to do something new'.

From 1918? Thats the only one in the ballpark. So you're a blow hard who doesn't know much? Please tell me about the last pandemic that shut the world down. Oh yeah and the opropriate equation.

 

[cwh78]

From 1918? Thats the only one in the ballpark. So you're a blow hard who doesn't know much? Please tell me about the last pandemic that shut the world down. Oh yeah and the opropriate equation.

Hope Google is treating you well!

 

[Joes Place]

From 1918? Thats the only one in the ballpark.

LOLWUT?

There are pandemic outbreaks annually. We generally call them "the flu", and epidemiologists are ALWAYS tracking and modeling them.

You are one uneducated MoFo.

 

[Joes Place]

Hope Google is treating you well!

Now you're having arguments with yourself?

Wow.

 

[cwh78]

LOLWUT?

There are pandemic outbreaks annually. We generally call them "the flu", and epidemiologists are ALWAYS tracking and modeling them.

You are one uneducated MoFo.

You're the idiot, can you not read or comprehend? Wow I can make a trend line and act important. You know nothing come at me with your amazing credentials! You're full of shit and can't answer a complete question.

 

[cwh78]

Now you're having arguments with yourself?

Wow.

Got me genius!!!

 

[Joes Place]

You're the idiot, can you not read or comprehend?

FUNFACT: A "pandemic" merely refers to the widespread transmission of a disease. It has nothing to do with the mortality rates of said disease, or whether "it shut the whole world down".

#StayInYourLaneBro

 

[cwh78]

Are you for real? You're right. This is similar to the FLU and previous versions of Corona.
They all shut the world down, once again answer my original questions and quit deflecting and being a bitch. Please

 

[cwh78]

I apologize to you but I was simply inquiring for an answer I didn't know. Please tell me how the new way this works compared to the old ways. I'll stay in my lane and listen

 

[cwh78]

I hope Google keeps working for you.
People like you are an embarrassing prospect of this whole ordeal. GFYS

 

[Joes Place]

I apologize to you but I was simply inquiring for an answer I didn't know. Please tell me how the new way this works compared to the old ways. I'll stay in my lane and listen

I hope Google keeps working for you.
People like you are an embarrassing prospect of this whole ordeal. GFYS

A: You seem bipolar

B: Here's the info, if not already posted in this thread; I've posted it 3 times now

There are two tried-and-true ways to model an epidemic. The most established, dating back a century, calculates how many people are susceptible to a virus (in the case of the new coronavirus, everyone), how many become exposed, how many of those become infected, and how many recover and therefore have immunity (at least for a while). Such “SEIR” models then use what researchers know about a virus’s behavior, such as how easily it spreads and how long it takes for symptoms of infection to appear, to calculate how long it takes for people to move from susceptible to infected to recovered (or dead).

“The fundamental concept of infectious disease epidemiology is that infections spread when there are two things: infected people and susceptible people,” Lipsitch said.

Newer, “agent-based models” are like the video game SimCity, but with a rampaging pathogen: using computing power unimagined even a decade ago, they simulate the interactions of millions of individuals as they work, play, travel, and otherwise go about their lives. Both of these approaches have often nailed projections of, for instance, U.S. cases of seasonal flu.

IHME uses neither a SEIR nor an agent-based approach. It doesn’t even try to model the transmission of disease, or the incubation period, or other features of Covid-19, as SEIR and agent-based models at Imperial College London and others do. It doesn’t try to account for how many infected people interact with how many others, how many additional cases each earlier case causes, or other facts of disease transmission that have been the foundation of epidemiology models for decades.

Instead, IHME starts with data from cities where Covid-19 struck before it hit the U.S., first Wuhan and now 19 cities in Italy and Spain. It then produces a graph showing the number of deaths rising and falling as the epidemic exploded and then dissipated in those cities, resulting in a bell curve. Then (to oversimplify somewhat) it finds where U.S. data fits on that curve. The death curves in cities outside the U.S. are assumed to describe the U.S., too, with no attempt to judge whether countermeasures —lockdowns and other social-distancing strategies — in the U.S. are and will be as effective as elsewhere, especially Wuhan.
​

 

[cwh78]

Question? Who are you and how can you prove it?
Second question is posting someone else's article an excuse for not answering questions?
I personally think you're an idiot who uses this forum to feel better about himself.

 

[cwh78]

I'm sure your cool though

 

[cwh78]

If you're Rebecca Robbins I get it SORRY!!

 

[Joes Place]

Question? Who are you and how can you prove it?

Prove what?

I linked you a writeup explaining the shortcomings in the IMHE's models.
You have what you asked for.

 

[The Tradition]

Traditional equations used to model pandemic outbreaks.
No idea why this site isn't utilizing them; they 'want to do something new'.

Yes, they were trying to predict resource use. Beds, ventilators, etc. Because that's what everyone was worried about.

 

[cwh78]

Prove what?

I linked you a writeup explaining the shortcomings in the IMHE's models.
You have what you asked for.

Hope Arby's is treating you well. Its funny how idiots like you deflect from everything.
Please quit acting like a true source of knowledge instead of a cherry picking idiot.
TIA!!

 

[hawkland14]

Hope Arby's is treating you well. Its funny how idiots like you deflect from everything.
Please quit acting like a true source of knowledge instead of a cherry picking idiot.
TIA!!

O my. CW taking @Joes Place to the woodshed. Interesting development on
HROT.

 

[lucas80]

Traditional equations used to model pandemic outbreaks.
No idea why this site isn't utilizing them; they 'want to do something new'.

From the very beginning one of the failures of the Trump Administration was it's desire to recreate things versus ramping up traditional agencies. It's like they want everything under the Trump roof so he can get all the credit, and that he can be totally in charge, except without any responsibility.