"Opening back up" isn't a piecemeal, haphazard exercise. It's a logistics problem.
Currently, we have a PPE burn rate and resupply rate. Fundamentally, your ability to re-open is rooted on:
Work out the numbers: Each new case of COVID19 requires a fraction of those resources:
Figure out how much PPE you got, if that is your limiting factor. Whatever you can resupply that at, is how many overall sustainable COVID19 cases you can handle.
Beds-wise, figure out what you have per county or per geographic area. Find out if it is PPE or beds that are your limiting factor.
Same with the other stuff. Just work the numbers out, based on high/low guesses, as to what is your limiting factor. CHANGE those numbers as you find medicines that reduce the #'s of critical care patients.
Now, you know what is sustainable, and how many new cases/day you are able to handle. When you fall below that sustainability number by, say half (EDIT: probably more like 1/5th or less), you allow local "opening back up". And you warn people to maintain social distancing as much as practical. When your area runs over its "limit", you get locked down again. Publicly list those numbers, so people have a target and can see daily whether they are going up or down. Make sure they understand that everything is about a 2 week lag time. You go on lockdown, it's another 2-3 weeks. You see cases increasing, you should lock down early. Set that lockdown number well below your actual sustainability limit.
More rural areas will have far looser criteria. Cities and densely populated areas will have tighter criteria.
Work the numbers out; communicate them to people, so they have a "goal" and can see the light at the end of the tunnel.
This "leave it up to states" nonsense has to stop ESPECIALLY when these states have no clue if they can resupply their PPE or not (and have the federal govt intercept their shipments). So long as this PPE shortage and federal nuisancing of stealing the supplies is going on, you're gonna stay in full lockdown, because NO ONE CAN RUN THEIR NUMBERS. When you don't know what your resupply rate is, your # acceptable cases drops to basically zero.
THIS is the exercise our federal administration should be working out and coordinating with the states. THIS is how you figure out how to "open back up" and do so in a sustainable fashion, so that you don't keep having major outbreaks.
Testing and PPE are going to be the key pacing items; Trump's admin has woefully failed on both. If they can sort their shit out, and stop pitting states against each other, and FACILITATE the distribution based on relative population sizes, we can get shit back to normal faster. But the nonsense being tossed around isn't going to solve anything. Because it is not a plan, it is not a strategy, it has no metrics to track or anything. If they cannot get this type of system working within a month or two, elect an administration that can in November.
Currently, we have a PPE burn rate and resupply rate. Fundamentally, your ability to re-open is rooted on:
- PPE resupply
- ICU Beds available
- Ventilators
- Tests
- Probably other items of less criticality
Work out the numbers: Each new case of COVID19 requires a fraction of those resources:
- X sets of PPE per case (Maybe 1/3 or 1/4)
- Y # of beds per case (1/5 or so)
- Z # of vents per case (probably 1/20 or so)
- W # of extra tests for each new community spread (maybe 20 tests per new case)
Figure out how much PPE you got, if that is your limiting factor. Whatever you can resupply that at, is how many overall sustainable COVID19 cases you can handle.
Beds-wise, figure out what you have per county or per geographic area. Find out if it is PPE or beds that are your limiting factor.
Same with the other stuff. Just work the numbers out, based on high/low guesses, as to what is your limiting factor. CHANGE those numbers as you find medicines that reduce the #'s of critical care patients.
Now, you know what is sustainable, and how many new cases/day you are able to handle. When you fall below that sustainability number by, say half (EDIT: probably more like 1/5th or less), you allow local "opening back up". And you warn people to maintain social distancing as much as practical. When your area runs over its "limit", you get locked down again. Publicly list those numbers, so people have a target and can see daily whether they are going up or down. Make sure they understand that everything is about a 2 week lag time. You go on lockdown, it's another 2-3 weeks. You see cases increasing, you should lock down early. Set that lockdown number well below your actual sustainability limit.
More rural areas will have far looser criteria. Cities and densely populated areas will have tighter criteria.
Work the numbers out; communicate them to people, so they have a "goal" and can see the light at the end of the tunnel.
This "leave it up to states" nonsense has to stop ESPECIALLY when these states have no clue if they can resupply their PPE or not (and have the federal govt intercept their shipments). So long as this PPE shortage and federal nuisancing of stealing the supplies is going on, you're gonna stay in full lockdown, because NO ONE CAN RUN THEIR NUMBERS. When you don't know what your resupply rate is, your # acceptable cases drops to basically zero.
THIS is the exercise our federal administration should be working out and coordinating with the states. THIS is how you figure out how to "open back up" and do so in a sustainable fashion, so that you don't keep having major outbreaks.
Testing and PPE are going to be the key pacing items; Trump's admin has woefully failed on both. If they can sort their shit out, and stop pitting states against each other, and FACILITATE the distribution based on relative population sizes, we can get shit back to normal faster. But the nonsense being tossed around isn't going to solve anything. Because it is not a plan, it is not a strategy, it has no metrics to track or anything. If they cannot get this type of system working within a month or two, elect an administration that can in November.
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