This might be a little tougher than Putin thought...
- Thread starter Nole Lou
- Start date
Let's drive around and try and frighten the West!
Anyone in Central IA care to join me. Always better in numbers.
"General Ben Hodges outlined a plan to liberate Crimea. First, with long-range weapons, we destroy the Crimean Bridge, the Black Sea Fleet, the HF and the Air Force, and conduct a ground operation to clear the territory."
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if Menards is still buying Russian building materials, maybe they should pack it up and send it to Ukraine so they can rebuild. This isn’t false accusations secretly let loose by Home Depot is it?
SIAP:
www.yahoo.com
An 'elite' Russian unit is being weakened by severe front-line losses, and the replacements appear to be making things worse, Western intel says
Britain's defense ministry said Russia's 155th Naval Infantry (NI) Brigade has suffered "extremely high casualties" while fighting in Ukraine.
FWIW plus background.
"After the failure of Russia's plans to create a land corridor across southern Ukraine to link up with Transnistria, Russian military contingent stationed there is effectively isolated.
At the same time, there is a large arsenal in the village of Cobasna, where a huge number of weapons and ammunition were taken from East Germany and Czechoslovakia after the Soviet withdrawal.
Since it could be useful to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Russians believe that Kyiv could send troops to Transnistria to seize these warehouses and deal with Russian occupation forces, returning the region to Chisinau's control.
While Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Kyiv would be prepared to assist Moldova in reclaiming the breakaway province – if Chisinau makes a corresponding request – Ukrainian officials deny there are any plans to invade or otherwise attack Transnistria."
news.yahoo.com
"After the failure of Russia's plans to create a land corridor across southern Ukraine to link up with Transnistria, Russian military contingent stationed there is effectively isolated.
At the same time, there is a large arsenal in the village of Cobasna, where a huge number of weapons and ammunition were taken from East Germany and Czechoslovakia after the Soviet withdrawal.
Since it could be useful to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Russians believe that Kyiv could send troops to Transnistria to seize these warehouses and deal with Russian occupation forces, returning the region to Chisinau's control.
While Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Kyiv would be prepared to assist Moldova in reclaiming the breakaway province – if Chisinau makes a corresponding request – Ukrainian officials deny there are any plans to invade or otherwise attack Transnistria."
Rumors of Ukrainian intervention in Transnistria sow panic in Russian social media
Amid unfounded rumors of an alleged Ukrainian operation to liberate Russia-occupied Moldovan region of Transnistria, Russian citizens living there are in a state of abject panic, as evidenced by social media posts in recent days.
Almost an incredible 1,200 pages in and I have to ask........Is Binsfield really Nat on the DL?
Yeah that definitely happened.
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Menards is a shitty company that treats workers badly anyway and is a terrible corporate citizen.
Russian wood still sold in U.S. a year into Ukraine war – including by a Wisconsin company
A year into the war in Ukraine, Russian plywood is still being sold in the U.S., including by Menards, headquartered in Eau Claire, a report says.www.usatoday.com
Uh, Menards lumber? I don't care how expensive it makes stuff. Don't help Russia.
Slaves for big money at Menards
My dear wife and I love Menards. We go there all the time. One of our favorite things is the usually twice-annual promotion offering a discount -- say 14%, or 17% -- on however much you can fit into a paper shopping bag. We stock up on light bulbs, batteries, laundry detergent, cleaning...
isthmus.com
Menard's contract threatens managers with 60% pay cut if union forms on their watch
The longstanding rumor gained credence when the Progressive obtained a copy of a contract agreement.
Somebody needs to go to confession!
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Reading between the lines on those two interviews, it sounds like when/if Ukraine has enough pilots trained on their use, it is very possible F-16s will be delivered, but there will be no deliveries until such time as they can be used by trained pilots.
Makes lots of sense to me.
Russian lumber is also harvested by North Korean slave labor. You know, if you’re opposed to slavery.Menards is a shitty company that treats workers badly anyway and is a terrible corporate citizen.
Slaves for big money at Menards
My dear wife and I love Menards. We go there all the time. One of our favorite things is the usually twice-annual promotion offering a discount -- say 14%, or 17% -- on however much you can fit into a paper shopping bag. We stock up on light bulbs, batteries, laundry detergent, cleaning...
Menard's contract threatens managers with 60% pay cut if union forms on their watch
The longstanding rumor gained credence when the Progressive obtained a copy of a contract agreement.captimes.com
I think the thing with F-16's is it should be thought of as a long term goal.
Even if we approved delivery tomorrow it'd be quite some time before everything was in place...logistics/training ect...before they'd get into the fight. Just getting their maintainers up to speed and a supply chain takes a good while. Anything less than a year for all that would be really pushing things IMO.
But as you said...maybe they're doing that training now....
Came across this article....it's from a couple weeks back.
It looks like the "west" has answered the call the last couple weeks but the article is pretty sobering. Very important couple months ahead....
Unless the West agrees and also speeds up the delivery of the tanks, Ukraine is in danger of losing the war against Russia this summer – “losing” in the sense that Russia is expected to surge its military efforts with a fresh call up and threatens to overwhelm Ukraine’s heroic forces, complete it capture of greater Donbas region, when Russian President Vladimir Putin can declare a victory and freeze the conflict. Ukraine is already running low on the critically important ammunition, especaily 155mm arrtillery shells, and a potential ammunition crissi is looming.
More help needs to be delievered right now. Ukraine has a window of opportunity in these next two months to strike a hammer blow against Russia’s forces, which are currently of poor quality, undersupplied and undermanned at the front, as it has taken a six month defensive stand as it trains its new recruits and waits for its factories to manufacture more arms. Tanks and planes could break lines and possibly repeat the rout in Kharkiv last September. If Ukraine waits until summer to launch a counteroffensive it will almost certainly face a much bigger, better trained and supplied Russian army. Tanks, planes and modern offensive missiles could make all the difference.
After a year of fighting both sides are becoming exhausted, but Russia has already brought an extra 300,000 conscripts to the fight with a partial mobilisation that started on September 21 and could add an additional half a million men, or more, in the widely anticipated mass mobilisation that all signs suggest will start sometime in March.
Manpower is going to make a big difference. Without the powerful modern western offensive weapons, the war in Ukraine increasingly looks like something out of WWII; troops cower in trenches as artillery pounds both sides’ positions causing a steady stream of deaths. There is little footage of high tech “bunker busters” that filled screens during the Iraq war. In this set up another half a million men, even of low fighting quality, could prove decisive.
To add to the problems, while Russia has already long since started to put its economy on a war footing, as bne IntelliNews reported, Ukraine is running out of ammunition, as the West has yet to invest into expanding its munitions production. The US has donated around one million of the crucial 155mm artillery shells, but it can only produce 100,000 a year, according to a recent study. Ukraine is currently firing off in a day what the US can produce in a month.
An ammunition shortage is looming and reports from the frontline by bne IntelliNews’ reporters and others is that Ukraine is already being forced to ration its shells. While more shells are available from the likes of US allies in South Korea and Israel, probably enough to get to the end of this year, the lack of ammunition is already starting to tell on Ukraine’s ability to resist a Russian onslaught.
Igor Zhovkva, Deputy Head of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenskiy’s office, told Bloomberg the country’s stocks are “almost zero” in an interview on February 10. Intense fighting in Ukraine means that its military is running out of ammunition, with stocks not being replenished in time, Zhovkva said.
Zhovkva lamented that “now we are having like almost zero ammunition,” a situation that makes it harder for the Ukrainian military to respond to Russian shelling. “We are running [out] of the ammunition very quickly because the fights are intensive,” he said, adding that Russia has more firepower.
He also said the West needs to send more arms, including long-range missiles to “de-occupy Ukrainian territory,” as opposed to hitting targets inside Russia.
According to Zhovkva, this type of weaponry would be crucial to launch a counteroffensive against Moscow’s forces. Commenting on the military aid already provided by the West, Zhovkva said that it was “too late, too little, and too slow.”
www.intellinews.com
It looks like the "west" has answered the call the last couple weeks but the article is pretty sobering. Very important couple months ahead....
Unless the West agrees and also speeds up the delivery of the tanks, Ukraine is in danger of losing the war against Russia this summer – “losing” in the sense that Russia is expected to surge its military efforts with a fresh call up and threatens to overwhelm Ukraine’s heroic forces, complete it capture of greater Donbas region, when Russian President Vladimir Putin can declare a victory and freeze the conflict. Ukraine is already running low on the critically important ammunition, especaily 155mm arrtillery shells, and a potential ammunition crissi is looming.
More help needs to be delievered right now. Ukraine has a window of opportunity in these next two months to strike a hammer blow against Russia’s forces, which are currently of poor quality, undersupplied and undermanned at the front, as it has taken a six month defensive stand as it trains its new recruits and waits for its factories to manufacture more arms. Tanks and planes could break lines and possibly repeat the rout in Kharkiv last September. If Ukraine waits until summer to launch a counteroffensive it will almost certainly face a much bigger, better trained and supplied Russian army. Tanks, planes and modern offensive missiles could make all the difference.
After a year of fighting both sides are becoming exhausted, but Russia has already brought an extra 300,000 conscripts to the fight with a partial mobilisation that started on September 21 and could add an additional half a million men, or more, in the widely anticipated mass mobilisation that all signs suggest will start sometime in March.
Manpower is going to make a big difference. Without the powerful modern western offensive weapons, the war in Ukraine increasingly looks like something out of WWII; troops cower in trenches as artillery pounds both sides’ positions causing a steady stream of deaths. There is little footage of high tech “bunker busters” that filled screens during the Iraq war. In this set up another half a million men, even of low fighting quality, could prove decisive.
To add to the problems, while Russia has already long since started to put its economy on a war footing, as bne IntelliNews reported, Ukraine is running out of ammunition, as the West has yet to invest into expanding its munitions production. The US has donated around one million of the crucial 155mm artillery shells, but it can only produce 100,000 a year, according to a recent study. Ukraine is currently firing off in a day what the US can produce in a month.
An ammunition shortage is looming and reports from the frontline by bne IntelliNews’ reporters and others is that Ukraine is already being forced to ration its shells. While more shells are available from the likes of US allies in South Korea and Israel, probably enough to get to the end of this year, the lack of ammunition is already starting to tell on Ukraine’s ability to resist a Russian onslaught.
Igor Zhovkva, Deputy Head of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenskiy’s office, told Bloomberg the country’s stocks are “almost zero” in an interview on February 10. Intense fighting in Ukraine means that its military is running out of ammunition, with stocks not being replenished in time, Zhovkva said.
Zhovkva lamented that “now we are having like almost zero ammunition,” a situation that makes it harder for the Ukrainian military to respond to Russian shelling. “We are running [out] of the ammunition very quickly because the fights are intensive,” he said, adding that Russia has more firepower.
He also said the West needs to send more arms, including long-range missiles to “de-occupy Ukrainian territory,” as opposed to hitting targets inside Russia.
According to Zhovkva, this type of weaponry would be crucial to launch a counteroffensive against Moscow’s forces. Commenting on the military aid already provided by the West, Zhovkva said that it was “too late, too little, and too slow.”
KYIV BLOG: Ukraine might lose the war this summer unless West gives it more offensive weapons now
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has been travelling to London, France and Brussels in recent days to plead with the west to give him more ...
www.intellinews.com
Not a sure thing yet.
"Washington is in talks with Berlin and Warsaw to hold joint military maneuvers in Poland in response to Russia’s threat to the eastern border of the NATO alliance, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said Sunday.
Exercises were being “considered,” Pistorius told public broadcaster ARD, without confirming or adding any details “for now.”
Military maneuvers in a country bordering Ukraine, invaded one year ago by Russia, would send a “very clear” signal to NATO allies “but also to (Russian President Vladimir) Putin,” he added.
NATO “is far from being as weak as (Putin) has believed for a long time,” said Pistorius.
“It’s a lot stronger and more united than last year” before Russian troops’ February 2022 assault.
Even so, “for countries in eastern Europe, like Poland, the Baltic states, Slovakia and others, it’s important to see that Germany as the most important European member of the alliance, and the US as transatlantic partner, are upholding their defence obligations,” he added."
https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/02/26/us-poland-germany-joint-maneuvres/
"Washington is in talks with Berlin and Warsaw to hold joint military maneuvers in Poland in response to Russia’s threat to the eastern border of the NATO alliance, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said Sunday.
Exercises were being “considered,” Pistorius told public broadcaster ARD, without confirming or adding any details “for now.”
Military maneuvers in a country bordering Ukraine, invaded one year ago by Russia, would send a “very clear” signal to NATO allies “but also to (Russian President Vladimir) Putin,” he added.
NATO “is far from being as weak as (Putin) has believed for a long time,” said Pistorius.
“It’s a lot stronger and more united than last year” before Russian troops’ February 2022 assault.
Even so, “for countries in eastern Europe, like Poland, the Baltic states, Slovakia and others, it’s important to see that Germany as the most important European member of the alliance, and the US as transatlantic partner, are upholding their defence obligations,” he added."
https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/02/26/us-poland-germany-joint-maneuvres/
As mentioned earlier, I suspect the Ukrainians will obtain air power sooner than later.
Biden/NATO won't probably acknowledge this because it's in their best interests not to. Let Putin think that he has some advantage and become too aggressive.
Biden/NATO won't probably acknowledge this because it's in their best interests not to. Let Putin think that he has some advantage and become too aggressive.
Let's give it a try (no Russia) and find out.
I hope the West is still sending them the Soviet/Russian aircraft they are used to and can operate right away.
Assuming their offensive is coming up, I wonder if attack helicopters would be a bigger need anyway.
The West decided on even more modern aircraft for Ukraine.
Brief #1: Getting Ammunition To Ukraine -- And Replenishing Western Stocks
What You Need To Know: Perhaps the most pressing issue for both the European Union and NATO in relation to the war in Ukraine right now is ammunition. First and foremost, how to supply Kyiv, especially after President Volodymyr Zelenskiy during his visit to Brussels earlier this month warned about an impending Russian offensive and the urgent need for more military deliveries.Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov also recently specified to Western colleagues the need to get 1 million rounds of 155-millimeter ammunition urgently.
At the same time, there is also a need to replenish Western stockpiles, which are depleting quickly. Quite how fast remains classified; no one I have spoken to is willing to share, but they can confirm that, apart from the ammunition Ukraine is asking for, there is also a shortage of HIMARS missiles and ammunition for air-defense systems. And this has forced Brussels into action.
EU defense and foreign ministers will discuss the issue when they convene in Stockholm on March 7-8. By then, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell will come up with concrete proposals on how to scale up production both for Ukraine and domestic stockpiles that potentially can be green-lighted when EU leaders meet in Brussels at the end of March.
Deep Background: In a letter to EU capitals sent last week and seen by RFE/RL, Borrell noted with urgency that “the future of Ukraine is at stake. We have committed to standing by Ukraine as much as needed. There is no time to waste.”
He proposes utilizing the European Peace Facility (EPF), a financial tool used by EU member states outside the regular EU budget that has been tapped into to the tune of 3.6 billion euros ($3.8 billion) so far for arms deliveries to Kyiv. Another 2 billion euros ($2.1 billion) is available, but the question is: Is that enough? In a discussion paper produced by Estonia on the issue, it is noted that Russia’s average artillery use is 20,000-60,000 shells per day.
That means that Russia fires Europe's monthly artillery production rate (currently estimated at 20,000-25,000 shells per month) in a single day in Ukraine.
What is needed, according to Tallinn, is a sevenfold increase of European defense industry production -- to the tune of 4 billion euros ($4.2 billion) -- to meet Reznikov’s demand in six months. Otherwise, it will take a full four years to produce the 1 million rounds asked for.
Drilling Down
- Two of the main issues here are coordination and, by extension, joint procurement. NATO has already been doing this for years, but the EU will explore this as well, with the likely caveat that production must be in Europe. One of the main hurdles to overcome is that defense issues remain an exclusive competence of each and every EU capital, making it trickier to reach any sort of consensus.
- NATO has also agreed to help Ukraine develop a smoother procurement system in line with Western demands. But more importantly, the EU, NATO, and Ukraine have started comparing notes on the issue. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, and Borrell met in Brussels last week and agreed that their respective procurement experts will put their heads together in the coming days.
- When asked why it had taken nearly a year for this to happen, Kuleba responded that “no one expected this war would last this long” and added that it was apparent already last summer that production needed to be ramped up but that “not enough has been done.”
- NATO officials admit privately that stockpiles were pretty low even before the war, largely because no one really foresaw a large-scale war on the continent again. They also note that much of the weapons production in the West has become very specific -- even “artisanal” -- instead of focusing on the big bulks of ammunition that are now clearly in demand.
- What is needed now is a clear signal of demand from government to industry. This usually means long-term contracts, something that an increase in NATO’s target for ammunition stockpiles could trigger.
- But there are bottlenecks -- and not only bureaucratic red tape. And many of them are felt in many other industries around the globe. The worldwide shortage of semiconductors is one, but also the lack of raw materials to make ammunition shells, for example.
- One quick-term fix will be to simply reach out to international partners, with Brazil, Israel, and South Korea being singled out as having deeper stockpiles at the moment.
Wider Europe Briefing: How To Get More Ammunition To Ukraine; And When Will Russian Officials Face Justice For The War?
I'm RFE/RL Europe Editor Rikard Jozwiak, and this week I'm drilling down on two major issues: How both the EU and NATO are scrambling to get more ammunition to Ukraine and how justice might be served after the war has ended.
www.rferl.org
Brief #2: Justice for Ukraine: Will Russian Officials Ever Face Trials?
What You Need To Know: One of the big issues surrounding the war in Ukraine is the question of justice and how it can be served once the fighting subsides. Ukrainian authorities have registered more than 71,000 alleged war crimes committed by the Russian Army since the war broke out -- a number that is likely to grow both as more Ukrainian territories potentially are liberated and the war intensifies.Ukrainian and international prosecutors, however, are already busy collecting evidence, with the International Criminal Court (ICC) playing a lead role, having set up a so-called Joint Investigation Team with over 20 countries, mainly EU member states, assisting with various investigations.
An international center for the prosecution of the crime of aggression against Ukraine is also being established in The Hague this spring in cooperation with the ICC and Eurojust -- the European Union agency responsible for criminal justice cooperation -- housing a judicial database of all available evidence. The big question, however, is: Which court will all of this work eventually end up in?
Deep Background: The most obvious answer should be a court under the auspices of the United Nations. That route, however, is complicated by the fact that Russia is a permanent -- and thus veto-wielding -- member of the UN’s Security Council.
This also complicates potential efforts to render justice via the ICC. Moscow did sign the Rome Statute, which governs the ICC, back in 2000, but never ratified the agreement to become a member. Russian President Vladimir Putin then approved the withdrawal of his country from the process of joining when the ICC ruled in 2016 that Russia’s actions in Crimea amounted to an "ongoing occupation."
The ICC can, however, still prosecute genocide, war crimes, and crimes against humanity committed on the territory of Ukraine because Kyiv submitted to its jurisdiction.
What the ICC cannot do is investigate and prosecute crimes of aggression committed by Russian nationals in Ukraine, as Russia is not a party to the ICC.
And the crime of aggression is crucial here.
The countries leading the process of justice for war crimes in Ukraine consider the crime of aggression to be the “supreme international crime” and the "source of all the other crimes committed in the country." It also limits criminal responsibility to individuals in leadership positions.
The conundrum is how to get these people in the dock. They all enjoy international immunity and could easily hide in countries that do not recognize the ICC’s jurisdiction. Trials in absentia could, of course, be held even if they tend to be regarded as “imperfect,” especially by victims.
Drilling Down
- With the ICC option unlikely, there could be a case of having trials in Ukraine, including at locations where Russian atrocities are alleged to have been committed. While perhaps morally satisfying, there is, of course, the same doubt as to whether Russian officials would be present at such trials, and it could be argued that the proceedings would not enjoy widespread international recognition.
- Hybrid courts, consisting of both international and Ukrainian prosecutors, could be another option, but the presence of Ukrainian nationals in decisive positions could be an issue for many nations that would prefer a more neutral setup.
- Instead, the option that is most likely to fly is the establishment of a special tribunal for the crime of aggression created through an agreement between Ukraine and the United Nations, but circumventing the UN Security Council and instead relying on the UN General Assembly (UNGA).
- No specific number of votes is needed for this to happen, but EU officials I have spoken to on condition of anonymity say they could push for it “as soon as it is clear there is enough support” and that this might happen at the UNGA in September, when many world leaders gather in New York.
- A special tribunal set up under the UNGA could potentially also solve the issue of lifting the immunity of high-ranking politicians. Such privileges, according to international law, don’t represent a roadblock to the prosecution of senior leaders for serious crimes before international criminal courts and tribunals acting on behalf of the international community.
- Can a court set up via a UNGA resolution truly represent the international community as a whole? That would probably be a question open to various legal and political interpretations, and it could ultimately come down to how many nations in the UN eventually vote in favor of such a court. One thing, however, is clear: There is no statute of limitation on crimes of aggression, so the international community can opt to play the "long game" in the quest for justice.
- It is also worth noting that there is a precedent for the UNGA setting up a court. The Extraordinary Chambers in the Courts of Cambodia, commonly known as the “Khmer Rouge Tribunal,” was established in 1997 after a UNGA resolution. It is worth noting, however, that it didn’t prosecute crimes of aggression.
- There is, of course, also the opportunity for both individuals and states to opt for civil lawsuits. The most obvious avenue here could be the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR). But, after its exclusion from the Council of Europe last year, Russia ceased to be party to the European Convention on Human Rights on September 16, 2022. This limits applications against Russia and Russians to crimes committed up until that date.
1. It is odd that he admits Russia started the war. The narrative has been that Russia was pushed into this action by Ukrainian/NATO actions.
2. The officer at the front sounds so much like Donald Trump's friend Jim. A totally real person who does exist.
You always do provide real world knowledge. Thanks.
As I have said many times we need to scour the planet for stuff they are able to plug in and use in Ukraine right now. But, yeah, we need to also have pilot candidates, and some veterans who have rotated out of service in the US right now being properly trained by our professional folks, and getting real flight time with our pilots.
I kept thinking of Cheeto starting a made up story with his trademark "SIR" while I watched this
As I said in the Moldova thread, this is the perfect place for Ukraine to try out their new Bradleys and Leopards. Give them some real world training helping Moldova fix it's Russian infestation. Seize that ammo.FWIW plus background.
"After the failure of Russia's plans to create a land corridor across southern Ukraine to link up with Transnistria, Russian military contingent stationed there is effectively isolated.
At the same time, there is a large arsenal in the village of Cobasna, where a huge number of weapons and ammunition were taken from East Germany and Czechoslovakia after the Soviet withdrawal.
Since it could be useful to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Russians believe that Kyiv could send troops to Transnistria to seize these warehouses and deal with Russian occupation forces, returning the region to Chisinau's control.
While Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Kyiv would be prepared to assist Moldova in reclaiming the breakaway province – if Chisinau makes a corresponding request – Ukrainian officials deny there are any plans to invade or otherwise attack Transnistria."
Rumors of Ukrainian intervention in Transnistria sow panic in Russian social media
Amid unfounded rumors of an alleged Ukrainian operation to liberate Russia-occupied Moldovan region of Transnistria, Russian citizens living there are in a state of abject panic, as evidenced by social media posts in recent days.
