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This might be a little tougher than Putin thought...

Long version of the sinking.






Sergej Sumlenny, LL.M

@sumlenny
·
1h
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Ukrainian naval drones have destroyed Russia’s “Tsezar Kunikov” large amphibious vessel, carrying up to 90 military personnel and a cargo of ammunition (drones?) close to Anapa, Crimea. The vessel was named after a Soviet officer who fought in Crimea in 1943, KIA on Feb14 1943.
 
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LOL





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Russia can sustain war effort for ‘two or three years,’ finds defense study​

The war in Ukraine is prompting a huge jump in global military spending, finds the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

LONDON — Russia is spending around one-third of its budget on defense, but is burning through arms, ammunition and troops at an unsustainable pace, says a report published today.

Russia will be able to sustain its war effort in Ukraine for "two to three more years," says International Institute for Strategic Studies Director General Bastian Giegerich. "But in doing so, it will have to sacrifice quality for quantity."

The Military Balance report by the IISS, a London-based think tank, shows that Russia's invasion of Ukraine has unleashed a deluge of defense spending around the world — most of it from Russia's rivals.

Global defense spending increased by 9 percent in 2023 to exceed $2.2 trillion; NATO countries spent over half of that amount, with the U.S. leading the pack by a vast margin.

In Europe, countries ramped up spending to assist Ukraine, whose domestic defense industry has been severely damaged by the war.

But the ongoing war has "laid bare the challenges of scaling up production to keep pace with the conflict's demands" and is showing the cracks in European military preparedness, according to Giegerich.

Despite all the new spending, there is a problem in ramping up the West's military production capacity. In its report, the IISS noted the EU is on track to miss its target of delivering Ukraine 1 million 155-millimeter artillery shells by March.

Despite those shortcomings, Russia's continued war against Ukraine has pushed more European countries to meet their NATO defense target of spending at least 2 percent of GDP on the military. According to the report, 10 European NATO allies hit that goal last year, up from just two in 2014.

Ukraine is also in a desperate plight, but — for now — is getting crucial aid from its allies.

"Ukraine's losses also have been heavy and replenished largely through Western support," said Giegerich. "The effect has been to improve the quality of Ukrainian equipment, although at the cost of greater logistical complexity."

He added that continued Russian missile and drone attacks "are taking a toll on Ukraine."

The West "must decide whether to furnish Kyiv with enough weapons to deliver a decisive blow rather than merely enough not to lose," he said.

While Russia is continuing to throw men and equipment against Ukraine's defenses, the cost is enormous, the think tank noted.

Henry Boyd, senior fellow for defense and military analysis at IISS, said that Russia was "increasingly dependent on Soviet-era legacy stores to meet the demand for new armored fighting vehicles and artillery pieces" and was "sacrificing training" to offset its troop losses on the battlefield.


Pretty shocking that we're still falling short on 155mm shell production 2 years in...
 
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Russia can sustain war effort for ‘two or three years,’ finds defense study​

The war in Ukraine is prompting a huge jump in global military spending, finds the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

LONDON — Russia is spending around one-third of its budget on defense, but is burning through arms, ammunition and troops at an unsustainable pace, says a report published today.

Russia will be able to sustain its war effort in Ukraine for "two to three more years," says International Institute for Strategic Studies Director General Bastian Giegerich. "But in doing so, it will have to sacrifice quality for quantity."

The Military Balance report by the IISS, a London-based think tank, shows that Russia's invasion of Ukraine has unleashed a deluge of defense spending around the world — most of it from Russia's rivals.

Global defense spending increased by 9 percent in 2023 to exceed $2.2 trillion; NATO countries spent over half of that amount, with the U.S. leading the pack by a vast margin.

In Europe, countries ramped up spending to assist Ukraine, whose domestic defense industry has been severely damaged by the war.

But the ongoing war has "laid bare the challenges of scaling up production to keep pace with the conflict's demands" and is showing the cracks in European military preparedness, according to Giegerich.

Despite all the new spending, there is a problem in ramping up the West's military production capacity. In its report, the IISS noted the EU is on track to miss its target of delivering Ukraine 1 million 155-millimeter artillery shells by March.

Despite those shortcomings, Russia's continued war against Ukraine has pushed more European countries to meet their NATO defense target of spending at least 2 percent of GDP on the military. According to the report, 10 European NATO allies hit that goal last year, up from just two in 2014.

Ukraine is also in a desperate plight, but — for now — is getting crucial aid from its allies.

"Ukraine's losses also have been heavy and replenished largely through Western support," said Giegerich. "The effect has been to improve the quality of Ukrainian equipment, although at the cost of greater logistical complexity."

He added that continued Russian missile and drone attacks "are taking a toll on Ukraine."

The West "must decide whether to furnish Kyiv with enough weapons to deliver a decisive blow rather than merely enough not to lose," he said.

While Russia is continuing to throw men and equipment against Ukraine's defenses, the cost is enormous, the think tank noted.

Henry Boyd, senior fellow for defense and military analysis at IISS, said that Russia was "increasingly dependent on Soviet-era legacy stores to meet the demand for new armored fighting vehicles and artillery pieces" and was "sacrificing training" to offset its troop losses on the battlefield.


Pretty shocking that we're still falling short on 155mm shell production 2 years in...
Also Pretty shocking Russia has made no gains in 2 years and has suffered 400,000k casualties, lost over 27,000 Tanks, APV and Artillery and almost 50 percent of their biggest ships in Black Sea Fleet
 
Because it's an oligarchy. Those that live in Moscow and St. Petersburg feel none of the pain, and those who live in the third world rest of the country live lives if misery to begin with and take on all of the pain because it has 0 net effect on them.
Historically the Russian people have been gluttons for punishment as well…
 
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The Russians threshold for pain and misery shouldn't be underestimated.

This point was lost when our historians and history professors tried to spend a couple generations glorifying Soviet manufacturing in its ability to rapidly and endlessly support its war effot in WWII imo as some sort of demonstration on what collective labor can do

The reality is that they had to do it because they view their own people as expendable and cannon fodder, and we're seeing what that looks like right now. You didn't get to see it in WWII when there was no internet, international cameras at the front line reporting home, etc.
 
This point was lost when our historians and history professors tried to spend a couple generations glorifying Soviet manufacturing in its ability to rapidly and endlessly support its war effot in WWII imo as some sort of demonstration on what collective labor can do

The reality is that they had to do it because they view their own people as expendable and cannon fodder, and we're seeing what that looks like right now. You didn't get to see it in WWII when there was no internet, international cameras at the front line reporting home, etc.
The Russians suffered 27 Million deaths in WW2. Insane numbers that would have had any western democracy suing for peace...unfathomable numbers really.

They've lived under despots for basically all of Russia's existence...accepting misery and having extremely low expectations are in their DNA.
 
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This point was lost when our historians and history professors tried to spend a couple generations glorifying Soviet manufacturing in its ability to rapidly and endlessly support its war effot in WWII imo as some sort of demonstration on what collective labor can do

The reality is that they had to do it because they view their own people as expendable and cannon fodder, and we're seeing what that looks like right now. You didn't get to see it in WWII when there was no internet, international cameras at the front line reporting home, etc.
The U.S. gave Russia $143B in today dollars in arms and equipment during the war including 7,000 tanks and a whole tire factory. But some people can't be bothered with Ukraine.
 
The Russians suffered 27 Million deaths in WW2. Insane numbers that would have had any western democracy suing for peace...unfathomable numbers really.

They've lived under despots for basically all of Russia's existence...accepting misery and having extremely low expectations are in their DNA.
"And then things got worse..." should be the Russian National Anthem.
 
Russia is spending around one-third of its budget on defense, but is burning through arms, ammunition and troops at an unsustainable pace, says a report published today.

This is the key takeaway.

This is why the Tucker interview.

This is why the mass influence operation to stop the Ukraine Aid spending bill.

This is why China is chirping at the UN.

Russia cannot sustain this war. They are losing. Badly. And they know it.

They already raided the prisons. They already raided the poors in the countryside.

Now it is taking a toll on the commoners & middle-upper class. Fewer doctors, fewer police. Less security. More volatile inside Russia. It will get to the point of becoming a powder keg.

They desperately need a cease fire. Do not give it to them.
 
They've lived under despots for basically all of Russia's existence...accepting misery and having extremely low expectations are in their DNA.
Which is the REAL reason for Putin's invasion.

Russia cannot tolerate a "democratized" Russian-fluent nation on its borders. People within the country will learn how shitty their lives truly are.
 
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