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This might be a little tougher than Putin thought...



Pansarbandvagn 302, meaning roughly armoured tracked carrier vehicle 302, is a Swedish high-mobility infantry fighting vehicle used by the Swedish Army from 1966 to 2014. Wikipedia
Armor: 23mm
Engine: Diesel, Volvo THD 100; 270 hp (201 kW)
Main armament: 20 mm automatkanon m/47D
Maximum speed: 66 km/h
No. built: 644 all variants
Secondary armament: 2 × 71mm Lyran mortars
That thing looks like the VW mini-bus of armored troop carriers...
 
Also love the use of "cauldron" as the Russians have claimed many times since the beginning of the war, that cauldrons and kettles were being formed to trap Ukraine troops. Cauldron is a snuggly term to Russians as it reminds them of the successes against the Nazis in WW2.



 
If Ukraine was behind the undermining of Nord Streams, it was a legitimate target

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_207733.htm

NATO 2022:

  1. The damage to the Nordstream 1 and Nordstream 2 pipelines in international waters in the Baltic Sea is of deep concern. All currently available information indicates that this is the result of deliberate, reckless, and irresponsible acts of sabotage. These leaks are causing risks to shipping and substantial environmental damage. We support the investigations underway to determine the origin of the damage.
  2. We, as Allies, have committed to prepare for, deter and defend against the coercive use of energy and other hybrid tactics by state and non-state actors. Any deliberate attack against Allies’ critical infrastructure would be met with a united and determined response.
nevermind-rosananadana.gif
 
Another claim about a possible new attack.



"Russian milbloggers are just reporting the intrusion of Ukrainian troops into the Russian Bryansk Oblast.There are important military bases and airfields there.Remember when I said that the greatest danger for Putin is that the Kursk operation was just an "exercise" to develop a pattern that, if successful, could then be repeated at any Russian weak point?To eliminate all these weak points he would need an army 3-4 times larger than he has now. An illusory plan!Incidentally, a significant increase in Ukrainian reconnaissance troops and cross-border artillery fire into Russia has also been reported from the Belgorod region."





 
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I think after seeing their propaganda on the war for a couple years it's still useful to report what they're saying. It's possible to decypher changes in their rhetoric.
And, it isn't like the propaganda cannot be identified. The more hyperbolic and unrealistic they become, the more it also gives us a window into what they are trying to convince themselves is true.
 
I love reading the Economist, it's an excellent source of right leaning news from around the world. They save a special spot each week for an obituary of a notable person. Many times it's someone you have never heard of, but someone who led an interesting life. Last week it was Inna Solobyova, the long time guardian and historian of the Moscow Art Theater. For decades she trudged along in a system she loathed because of her love for Russia and its art. The obit ends with a line for her favorite book that gives some insight in to the Russian mind. The quote is from The Lifetimes of Archpriest Avvakum. A book written in the 1600s as the author criss crossed Russia observing state violence, and marveling at the tenacity of Russia's people. Avvakum and his wife are riding in a sleigh and witness another senseless act: "Will these sufferings last for long?", the wife asks. Avvakum responds, "Markovna, right to our very deaths".
"Good enough, Petrovich, then let's trudge on", she responds.
 
Somewhat related, the US will participate in a large scale operation in the Summer of 2025 called REFORPAC, to test our ability to deploy large numbers of planes and service members into the Pacific. 1. It sends a message to China. 2. Hopefully it opens some eyes about dwindling US capabilities. Yes, we retain large numbers of aircraft, but not enough. And, our industrial base is slowly eroding. We simply could not ramp up production of aircraft and weapons in a timely manner.

https://www.airandspaceforces.com/return-of-forces-to-pacific-exercise-coming-2025/#:~:text=REFORPAC: Allvin Details New Indo-Pacific Exercise Debuting in 2025&text=The Air Force will flood,David W.
 
Bryansk region, Klimovsky district. There is a battle between #Russian Army and #Ukrainian Russian Liberation Legion on the border," Z-channels claim that #Ukraine fighters are breaking through to Bryansk region near the border with Belarus. New front is opening up?

Keep hitting where they ain’t.
Keep nibblin’.
Way, way better than beating your head against a brick wall.
Russian CAS isn’t like the ‘on demand’ way the U.S. practices. They recon with meat and then plot missions to bomb the strongpoints.
Keeping on the move largely negates this.
The helicopters that were able to respond on shorter notice during the land bridge assault are apparently being better interdicted.
Factor in a bunch of poorly trained conscripts and rear echelon techs repurposed as infantry, and it has all the right ingredients for Ukrainian success.
Russia’s so damn big, Ukraine has to keep the initiative and try to keep the fight in Russia insofar as possible.
Putin can’t ignore a drive to the Baltics for a few more square miles of Donetsk.
 

Poorly trained recruits contribute to loss of Ukrainian territory on eastern front, commanders say​

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Some new Ukrainian soldiers refuse to fire at the enemy. Others, according to commanders and fellow fighters, struggle to assemble weapons or to coordinate basic combat movements. A few have even walked away from their posts, abandoning the battlefield altogether.

While Ukraine presses on with its incursion into Russia’s Kursk region, its troops are still losing precious ground along the country’s eastern front — a grim erosion that military commanders blame in part on poorly trained recruits drawn from a recent mobilization drive, as well as Russia’s clear superiority in ammunition and air power.

“Some people don’t want to shoot. They see the enemy in the firing position in trenches but don’t open fire. ... That is why our men are dying,” said a frustrated battalion commander in Ukraine’s 47th Brigade. “When they don’t use the weapon, they are ineffective.”

The accounts come from commanders and soldiers who spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity in order to speak freely about sensitive military matters. Others spoke on the condition that they be identified only by their call signs in keeping with Ukrainian military protocol.

Commanders say the recruits have contributed to a string of territorial losses that enabled Russia’s army to advance, including near the city of Pokrovsk, a critical logistics hub. If it falls, the defeat would imperil Ukraine’s defenses and bring Russia closer to its stated aim of capturing the Donetsk region. Russian soldiers are now just 10 kilometers (6.2 miles) away.



Adding to Ukraine’s woes are Russia’s huge advantage in manpower and its willingness to accept staggering losses in return for capturing small objectives.

The recently conscripted Ukrainians are a far cry from the battle-hardened fighters who flocked to join the war in the first year of the full-scale invasion. The new troops lack even a minimal level of training, commanders and soldiers from four brigades defending the Pokrovsk area said.

They described having to plan operations with infantry who are unable to shoot targets and uninformed about basic topography. Some recruits simply lacked faith in the battle plans of their superiors and walked away from prepared positions.

Frustrated with the quality of the new conscripts sent to the front line by territorial recruitment centers, commanders are now seeking to conduct their own mobilization drives to better screen and train new fighters, multiple commanders and soldiers said.

“The main problem is the survival instinct of newcomers. Before, people could stand until the last moment to hold the position. Now, even when there is light shelling of firing positions, they are retreating,” said a soldier with the 110th Brigade.

Not everyone is turning around and running away from battle, he added.

“No, there are motivated people, but they are just very, very few,” he said. “The position is held as far as there are these people who are motivated and committed.”

Following the implementation of a controversial mobilization law in May that established clearer regulations for territorial recruitment centers, Ukraine is reportedly drafting tens of thousands of fighters per month. Demand is highest in the infantry.

But there are logistical hurdles to train, equip and pay so many incoming people, and commanders constantly demand new soldiers. To ease that pressure, military leaders have had to take units from brigades in one region and transfer them to different areas to stabilize weak spots.

Some point the finger back at commanders who single out recent recruits for losses.

Viktor Kevliuk, a military expert with the Ukraine-based Center for Defense Strategies think tank, said the training offered to recruits is adequate. He said brigade commanders “are looking for an explanation for tactical failures.”

“Likewise, the brigade commander has the appropriate tools to influence morale. If all these processes are established in the brigade, there will be no significant problems. If these mechanisms fail, we read about the negativity in social networks,” he added
And in intense fights such as the one in Pokrovsk, “it is the timely tactical decisions of commanders that make the difference, Kevliuk said.

In some instances, terrified new recruits have fled from the fight.

“This fear creates panic and chaos,” said the battalion commander in the 47th Brigade. “This is also the reason we have lost.”

The loss of the village of Prohres last month in the Pokrovsk region is the most recent example of territorial loss blamed on new recruits, commanders said. Units from the 31st Brigade left in a poorly coordinated frenzy, prompting the 47th Brigade to enter the battle and attempt to stabilize the line. A similar scenario unfolded in the village of Ocheretyne in May.

Not enough is done to train newcomers, the battalion commander said. “They don’t receive even the lowest standard of training required for our (combat) actions,” he said.

The new men do not have enough practice assembling and shooting their rifles, he said. They also have not learned how to coordinate combat tasks in small groups or to use even simple tactics, he added.

“From the command point, I would like to issue orders to small (infantry) groups, but I am not sure if they are capable of executing these orders because they lack coordination and communication,” he said, adding, “Sometimes, I want to shoot myself.”

Ukraine’s sudden foray into Russia initially stirred hopes that the Kremlin might be forced to divide its military resources to respond. But so far, Russian forces have not wavered in their push toward Pokrovsk and other potential conquests.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s lightning advance into Russian territory has slowed after two weeks, making only small gains, a possible sign that Moscow is counter-attacking more effectively.

Commanders in the east report that battles have only intensified since the incursion. Local authorities on Monday ordered Pokrovsk’s nearly 53,000 residents to evacuate within two weeks. In the neighboring town of Myrnohrad, even closer to Russian positions, residents were given only days.

The capture of Pokrovsk would undermine Ukrainian supply routes to the Donetsk region and ease Russia’s advance to the eastern cities of Sloviansk and Kostiantynivka. It would also mark Russia’s first major strategic win after months of painfully fought marginal gains.

In the last three months, the majority of Ukrainian territorial losses were recorded in the Pokrovsk area, according to three open-source monitoring groups, with fighting intensifying in the vicinity of the towns of Toretsk and Chasiv Yar. Russian forces dialed up the attacks in an attempt to capitalize on troop fatigue and shortages.

The offensive has also come at a huge cost to Moscow, with an estimated 70,000 troops lost in two months, according to the U.K. Defense Ministry, which posted the projection last month on X. Heavy losses have continued as Russian forces gradually approach Pokrovsk from the east and southeast.

Another challenge for Ukraine is a new tactic in which Russia deploys recurrent waves of smaller infantry units of two to four men. That has flummoxed Ukrainian drone operators, who find it difficult to target them, according to a drone operator with the 25th Brigade who uses the call sign Groot.

“This is one of the main reasons for (Russia’s) success in Pokrovsk,” he said. “It’s harder to detect them,” especially under the cover of leafy trees.

“As soon as the infantry get under the tree lines, it’s really hard to get them out of there with drones, and that’s why we depend a lot on our infantry.”
 
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Lawmakers are frustrated at the lack of a coherent plan as Biden prepares to leave office.​


Frustration is mounting on Capitol Hill as the Biden administration has failed to meet a deadline to provide Congress with a detailed written report of its strategy for the war in Ukraine, with at least one lawmaker seeking to suspend aid to Kyiv altogether until the document is provided.

The strategy report was due to be submitted to Congress in early June as a requirement of the multibillion-dollar package of military aid for Ukraine and other U.S. allies, which was passed in April after significant delays.

In the two and a half years since Russia invaded Ukraine, the Biden administration has yet to publicly detail in writing its long-term strategy for the conflict, in which the United States has played an integral role, providing Kyiv with some $175 billion in aid and working with partners in Europe and beyond to starve the Russian defense industry through sanctions and to rally support for Ukraine. That’s despite repeated urging from Congress, even before the supplemental aid was passed.

“The Biden-Harris administration’s ‘support’ for Ukraine has given the embattled nation just enough to survive but not enough to win,” House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul said in a statement provided to Foreign Policy. “Time and time again, weapons viewed by the administration as too provocative were later provided. Without a clear strategy for victory in Ukraine, the administration is likely to continue down the same path, prolonging [Russian President Vladimir] Putin’s war of aggression and signaling U.S. weakness to our other adversaries, including communist China.”

President Joe Biden has repeatedly promised to stand by Ukraine as long as is necessary, but critics contend that the lack of a clearly articulated vision for America’s long-term role in the war has led to a de facto policy of enabling Ukraine to continue to fight, but not to win.

“I think, by default, our real policy is keep them viable, don’t let Ukraine get defeated, and wait for one side or the other to give up and go to the table,” said retired U.S. Air Force Gen. Philip Breedlove, who served as NATO’s supreme allied commander Europe until 2016. “We need to have a real, demonstrative, declaratory policy,” he said.

Breedlove and five other retired U.S. military commanders and former senior diplomats, including former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Marie Yovanovitch, sent a letter to the Biden administration on Friday calling for Kyiv and its partners to come up with a “common definition of victory” and develop a “cohesive strategy to make that victory a reality.” The letter was first reported by Politico.

“I’ve never seen anyone really—and this should be coming from the U.S. government—that takes a comprehensive look at what are the tools of power that we have and how do we coordinate them into a strategy,” said Ian Brzezinski, former U.S. deputy assistant secretary of defense for Europe and NATO policy.

But even as the Biden administration begins to roll out new aid packages to Ukraine after the passage of the supplemental, with the White House sending $225 million to Kyiv in July, some Republicans say the aid is coming too late, or in chunks that are too small. Lawmakers have also complained that the administration isn’t giving Ukraine enough leeway to use the weapons it has.

“This abdication of leadership, combined with numerous missed opportunities to capitalize on Russia’s battlefield mistakes, has needlessly cost lives and prolonged the war,” Senate Armed Services Committee ranking member Roger Wicker said in an emailed statement. “Ukraine is demonstrating every day that it can defeat Putin’s illegal invasion. It is time for the President to take the handcuffs off our aid.”

“Congress can provide the funds and authorization, but only the commander-in-chief can fill the current leadership vacuum,” Wicker added.

The Republican Party has been split over the question of continued aid to Ukraine, with some pushing the Biden administration to do more, while the isolationist wing of the party has sought to dramatically dial back support to Kyiv, accusing the administration of reaching too far in its support of Ukraine and vowing not to approve further military aid packages. Among the skeptics is former U.S. President Donald Trump’s running mate, Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance.

 
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