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This race is breaking...as predicted...for Harris

The average of all Fla polls is Trump +4.9
This poll has him up +13
Pretty dubious this poll is legit
I would completely agree about the actual result being much closer.
I was commenting more to the effect that FL has had a substantial partisan change over the last four years, I’m not sure about Texas having done the same - thus the disparity between them.
I wasn’t focusing on the 13% part at all, sorry for the confusion.

Edit to add: Just looked, Texas doesn’t have you register party when you register to vote (open primary state, no need).
 
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I would completely agree about the actual result being much closer.
I was commenting more to the effect that FL has had a substantial partisan change over the last four years, I’m not sure about Texas having done the same - thus the disparity between them.
I wasn’t focusing on the 13% part at all, sorry for the confusion.

Edit to add: Just looked, Texas doesn’t have you register party when you register to vote (open primary state, no need).
None of the other groups have changed substantially. Rs are the same. Unaffiliated are the same. Yet there are a million less Dems.

So what happened to them?
 
I’m still in rural Iowa. I am surprised at the amount of Harris signs here, compared to the past.

There’s still Republican idiots here of course, but that’s a given here.
Same when I was up in ruby red rural Norrtheast Wisconsin. I even took some pics.
IMG-1969.jpg
 
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None of the other groups have changed substantially. Rs are the same. Unaffiliated are the same. Yet there are a million less Dems.

So what happened to them?

I just think DeSantis doctored the numbers in case Florida flips then the idiots can say there was cheating....it just doesn't make sense
 
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I just think DeSantis doctored the numbers in case Florida flips then the idiots can say there was cheating....it just doesn't make sense
Also, Trump won by about 4 points in 2020. And today, with 20% less Democrats, Trump is winning by about 5 points. How the eff does that work? 20% less Dems but the margins don't change?
 
I live in a largely Republican neighborhood. I know this because all these people do is keep buying large ass suvs and country club memberships. I'm a Democrat and totally out of place except they are fine people meaning I don't bother them and vice versa. I went for a walk the other day.

1 Trump sign
7 Harris

I was pleasantly surprised, including people I'm pretty sure are R's but will hold their noses and vote D.

There is a lot of disdain towards Trump. You'll see it on election day.
In the area that I live in there is a very contested and tight State Senate race. An incumbent Democrat and a challenger Republican. The most yard signs in our communities either tout one or the other of these candidates. When it's the Republicans sign in a yard, there is never a trump sign accompanying it. When there is the Democrats yard sign in the yard, it almost always has a Harris sign with it. I know that anecdotal, but it's real.
 
In the area that I live in there is a very contested and tight State Senate race. An incumbent Democrat and a challenger Republican. The most yard signs in our communities either tout one or the other of these candidates. When it's the Republicans sign in a yard, there is never a trump sign accompanying it. When there is the Democrats yard sign in the yard, it almost always has a Harris sign with it. I know that anecdotal, but it's real.
This is what I mean. Sabula by the way is pretty. Doesn't resemble conventional Iowa.
 
This is what I mean. Sabula by the way is pretty. Doesn't resemble conventional Iowa.
Yes it's quite the little Mississippi River town. I lived there for many years, you got to love fishing, you got to love boating, you got to love hunting, you got to love watersports. It was all very good. Actually met my wife there, who was vacationing in Sabula when I happened to be back for a weekend.
 
Interesting observation:


Frum added: "I do think we're living through a moment like 1968-74 when the parties change who their voters are … we are seeing a certain type of voter with a lot to lose migrating into the Democratic coalition because it offers stability and a certain kind of voter with less to lose and more alienation migrating out of the Democratic coalition because they don't feel attached enough to the society and are excited by the Republican promise to take more risks with America."
Wonder if that sort of thing explains the rise of the populist right in Europe as well. I keep coming back to some feature(s) of modernity.
 
I just think DeSantis doctored the numbers in case Florida flips then the idiots can say there was cheating....it just doesn't make sense

Cool conspiracy, bro.
Let’s run this down.

In Florida the supervisor of elections is a county elected position.

Your theory is that the numbers they tabulate and post publicly per county have been ‘doctored’ by the Secretary of State and those ‘doctored’ numbers posted on the state website?
 
Cool conspiracy, bro.
Let’s run this down.

In Florida the supervisor of elections is a county elected position.

Your theory is that the numbers they tabulate and post publicly per county have been ‘doctored’ by the Secretary of State and those ‘doctored’ numbers posted on the state website?

So a million Democrats unregistered to vote in the last two years? That's your contention...and that's a STATE government website.
 
So a million Democrats unregistered to vote in the last two years? That's your contention...and that's a STATE government website.
Each elected supervisor of elections runs his own (county controlled) website.

e.g.
https://www.leonvotes.gov/Records-Data-Maps/Election-Results-and-Reports/2024-Reports
https://www.leonvotes.gov/Records-Data-Maps/Election-Results-and-Reports/2020-Reports

Registration Report will show you the voter registration by party info.

Tallahassee Democrat
July 10, 2025

Paler shade of blue: Democratic Party loses its voter majority in Leon County, data shows
The Democratic drop comes before an election in which the party hopes to rebound from a devastating midterm election two years ago.

It may come as a shocking realization to many: After decades of dominance, the Democratic Party no longer is Leon County’s majority political party.

In other words, Florida’s capital county – where Democrats routinely pick up two-thirds of the vote and hold majorities on city and county elected boards – turned a lighter shade of blue last month, according to voter registration records.

It follows another revelation earlier this year: That Republicans after overtaking Democrats in the number of registered voters statewide at the end of 2021 are now on track to have a lead of one million by the time of the November general election.


Registration is down according to the numbers, just down more among Democrats:

75wtktk.png


My point is, the system is distributed across 67 counties, elected positions with number crunching performed by minions statewide, and your conspiracy has them all in cahoots.

That's kinda nutty, ain't it? To just cook up in your head with no evidence and throw out there on the internet?
 
In case you're wondering if the guy in Leon county is a GOP plant:

Meet the Supervisor of Elections​

Mark Earley has been working in service to the voters of Leon County for over 30 years . He was first elected Supervisor of Elections in 2016 following the retirement of his mentor, former Supervisor Ion Sancho. Mark is responsible for the conduct of elections in Leon County and works closely with other local, state, and federal agencies to protect the right of every voter to cast their ballot and have it counted accurately and securely.
In addition to his elected office, Mark serves as a former President of Florida Supervisors of Elections, Inc. the state association for Florida’s Supervisors of Elections. In addition, he serves as the Vice-Chair of the association’s Cybersecurity Committee and is a member of its Legislative Fast Response Team, where he advocates for legislation that benefits Florida voters.
At the federal level, Mark serves on the Executive Committees of both the Elections Infrastructure Information Sharing and Analysis Center (EI-ISAC) and the Local Leadership Council of the U.S. Election Assistance Commission (EAC). He also serves as a representative of the Election Center on the United States Postal Service Mailers’ Technical Advisory Committee.
Mark has earned both state and national certifications in the field of election administration as a Master Florida Certified Elections Professional and a Certified Elections Registration Administrator. He holds a Mechanical Engineering degree from the FAMU/FSU College of Engineering.
During his years of service, Mark has been integral to the development of new election systems, processes, and standards that have become the norm across Florida and the nation, including a lead role in developing a post-election audit system which provides an unprecedented level of transparency, security, and validation for elections. He was inducted into the Election Center’s National Hall of Fame in August of 2023.
 
Many highly educated Republicans are absolutely mortified of Drumpf. I know of some in IC, and they will vote for Harris. Trump screws up anything he touches, so why would people want that? People should just look at their retirement plans and 529s for their kids. Normally, presidents get too much credit or blame for this, but like I noted earlier, Trump f*cks up everything he touches.
 
Many highly educated Republicans are absolutely mortified of Drumpf. I know of some in IC, and they will vote for Harris. Trump screws up anything he touches, so why would people want that? People should just look at their retirement plans and 529s for their kids. Normally, presidents get too much credit or blame for this, but like I noted earlier, Trump f*cks up everything he touches.
The US and the world was undoubtedly better under Trump's four years than the last four. You just aren't being honest with yourself because team blue.
 
The US and the world was undoubtedly better under Trump's four years than the last four. You just aren't being honest with yourself because team blue.
Nothing was, is, or ever will be better if Trump is involved. The only thing Trump tries to make "better" is himself.

The criminal needs to go away, not be the criminal president he (and it looks like you) wants to be.
 
None of the other groups have changed substantially. Rs are the same. Unaffiliated are the same. Yet there are a million less Dems.

So what happened to them?


Florida appears to have undergone a significant partisan shift in the last four years.
I don’t think these numbers will have moved much in the last four weeks.

fq9UHKg.png

This looks like Florida purged voter registrations, but only for one party?
 
VOTER ELECTION FRAUD!! Knowing how much he hates this, I'm sure Bonespurs is all over it. Probably going to start some type of commission or board to investigate it. Just like he did in 2020, when he was forced to start an election fraud investigative commission after the election, because he cried election fraud so many times BEFORE the election, then looked like an idiot when he stumbled to a win.
 
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The US and the world was undoubtedly better under Trump's four years than the last four. You just aren't being honest with yourself because team blue.
4 years ago . . . it was not. People were dying left and right from Covid. As to the Wars yes it is more unsettled. However an American president doesn't control when a country decides to go war. Individuals actually have more purchasing power now that at the end of 2019.


  • Household purchasing power has increased as a result. In 2023, the median American worker can afford the same goods and services as they did in 2019, plus an additional $1,000 to spend or save—because median earnings rose faster than prices.
 
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Just ‘pre-bunking’ the notion he’s a MAGA numpty before @fsu1jreed takes the conspiracy down that lane, without evidence.

Still haven't explained how two million Democrats and Independents unregistered to vote.....and not sure if you know butDeSantis is a full blown MAGA, they are the idiots that are laying the ground work that if Trump loses there was cheating, just like in 2020. This is a way and it explains it.

It's just the next logical step from this


And this

 
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