This race is breaking...as predicted...for Harris

[seminole97]

The average of all Fla polls is Trump +4.9
This poll has him up +13
Pretty dubious this poll is legit

I would completely agree about the actual result being much closer.
I was commenting more to the effect that FL has had a substantial partisan change over the last four years, I’m not sure about Texas having done the same - thus the disparity between them.
I wasn’t focusing on the 13% part at all, sorry for the confusion.

Edit to add: Just looked, Texas doesn’t have you register party when you register to vote (open primary state, no need).

 

[Tom Paris]

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You listen to the wrong sources.

 

[GOHOX69]

You listen to the wrong sources.

Too many frosted flakes will mess you up.

 

[Huey Grey]

I would completely agree about the actual result being much closer.
I was commenting more to the effect that FL has had a substantial partisan change over the last four years, I’m not sure about Texas having done the same - thus the disparity between them.
I wasn’t focusing on the 13% part at all, sorry for the confusion.

Edit to add: Just looked, Texas doesn’t have you register party when you register to vote (open primary state, no need).

None of the other groups have changed substantially. Rs are the same. Unaffiliated are the same. Yet there are a million less Dems.

So what happened to them?

 

[torbee]

I’m still in rural Iowa. I am surprised at the amount of Harris signs here, compared to the past.

There’s still Republican idiots here of course, but that’s a given here.

Same when I was up in ruby red rural Norrtheast Wisconsin. I even took some pics.

 

[RagnarLothbrok]

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Get a life.

Better yet, get a gun and eat a bullet.

 

[RagnarLothbrok]

This race is breaking. It might be subtle but it is. Even down vote congressional races in Iowa are breaking for dems. That's my indication.

I’ll believe it when I see it.

 

[GOHOX69]

I’ll believe it when I see it.

That was the point of the Siena poll. It's subtle but happening.

 

[Whiskeydeltadeltatango]

Fwiw.





I don't think anyone is going to accuse the krassenstien base of being repub.

Probably just a bunch of bots....

 

[GOHOX69]

Fwiw.

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I don't think anyone is going to accuse the krassenstien base of being repub.

Probably just a bunch of bots....

X is a right wing shithole.

 

[NorthernHawkeye]

For the magats

Harris takes slim lead over Trump in new poll as voters view her as candidate of change

Vice President Harris took a small lead over former President Trump in a new national poll released on Tuesday as voters increasingly see her as the candidate of change.

www.foxnews.com

Harris, that candidate for change?

 

[Whiskeydeltadeltatango]

X is a right wing shithole.

Bots bro...

 

[GOHOX69]

Bots bro...

Yup. Among other things.

 

[fsu1jreed]

None of the other groups have changed substantially. Rs are the same. Unaffiliated are the same. Yet there are a million less Dems.

So what happened to them?

I just think DeSantis doctored the numbers in case Florida flips then the idiots can say there was cheating....it just doesn't make sense

 

[Huey Grey]

I just think DeSantis doctored the numbers in case Florida flips then the idiots can say there was cheating....it just doesn't make sense

Also, Trump won by about 4 points in 2020. And today, with 20% less Democrats, Trump is winning by about 5 points. How the eff does that work? 20% less Dems but the margins don't change?

 

[sabula]

I don't want to believe that for one second.

FIFY

 

[sabula]

I live in a largely Republican neighborhood. I know this because all these people do is keep buying large ass suvs and country club memberships. I'm a Democrat and totally out of place except they are fine people meaning I don't bother them and vice versa. I went for a walk the other day.

1 Trump sign
7 Harris

I was pleasantly surprised, including people I'm pretty sure are R's but will hold their noses and vote D.

There is a lot of disdain towards Trump. You'll see it on election day.

In the area that I live in there is a very contested and tight State Senate race. An incumbent Democrat and a challenger Republican. The most yard signs in our communities either tout one or the other of these candidates. When it's the Republicans sign in a yard, there is never a trump sign accompanying it. When there is the Democrats yard sign in the yard, it almost always has a Harris sign with it. I know that anecdotal, but it's real.

 

[GOHOX69]

In the area that I live in there is a very contested and tight State Senate race. An incumbent Democrat and a challenger Republican. The most yard signs in our communities either tout one or the other of these candidates. When it's the Republicans sign in a yard, there is never a trump sign accompanying it. When there is the Democrats yard sign in the yard, it almost always has a Harris sign with it. I know that anecdotal, but it's real.

This is what I mean. Sabula by the way is pretty. Doesn't resemble conventional Iowa.

 

[sabula]

Same when I was up in ruby red rural Norrtheast Wisconsin. I even took some pics.

I can reiterate this for southwestern wisconsin. When I drove over there last weekend, I was shocked at the number of Harris signs, and how little Trump signs there were. Perhaps a harbinger...

 

[sabula]

This is what I mean. Sabula by the way is pretty. Doesn't resemble conventional Iowa.

Yes it's quite the little Mississippi River town. I lived there for many years, you got to love fishing, you got to love boating, you got to love hunting, you got to love watersports. It was all very good. Actually met my wife there, who was vacationing in Sabula when I happened to be back for a weekend.

 

[Colonoscopy]

Interesting observation:


Frum added: "I do think we're living through a moment like 1968-74 when the parties change who their voters are … we are seeing a certain type of voter with a lot to lose migrating into the Democratic coalition because it offers stability and a certain kind of voter with less to lose and more alienation migrating out of the Democratic coalition because they don't feel attached enough to the society and are excited by the Republican promise to take more risks with America."

Wonder if that sort of thing explains the rise of the populist right in Europe as well. I keep coming back to some feature(s) of modernity.

 

[BioHawk]

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I will never understand why people think Trump is good with the economy. His big idea? Tariffs! Now go find a reputable economist that thinks tariffs are great for the economy. All this even after he already crashed the economy once. Something he can add to his 6 bankrupted businesses.

 

[B1GDeal]

I can reiterate this for southwestern wisconsin. When I drove over there last weekend, I was shocked at the number of Harris signs, and how little Trump signs there were. Perhaps a harbinger...

Yep, we went to the Dells Friday-Sunday and saw tons of Harris/Walz signs all over the small towns and rural highways.

 

[seminole97]

I just think DeSantis doctored the numbers in case Florida flips then the idiots can say there was cheating....it just doesn't make sense

Cool conspiracy, bro.
Let’s run this down.

In Florida the supervisor of elections is a county elected position.

Your theory is that the numbers they tabulate and post publicly per county have been ‘doctored’ by the Secretary of State and those ‘doctored’ numbers posted on the state website?

 

[fsu1jreed]

Cool conspiracy, bro.
Let’s run this down.

In Florida the supervisor of elections is a county elected position.

Your theory is that the numbers they tabulate and post publicly per county have been ‘doctored’ by the Secretary of State and those ‘doctored’ numbers posted on the state website?

So a million Democrats unregistered to vote in the last two years? That's your contention...and that's a STATE government website.

 

[fsu1jreed]

I also just noticed that Independents dropped by a million also....those numbers don't make sense

 

[seminole97]

So a million Democrats unregistered to vote in the last two years? That's your contention...and that's a STATE government website.

Each elected supervisor of elections runs his own (county controlled) website.

e.g.
https://www.leonvotes.gov/Records-Data-Maps/Election-Results-and-Reports/2024-Reports
https://www.leonvotes.gov/Records-Data-Maps/Election-Results-and-Reports/2020-Reports

Registration Report will show you the voter registration by party info.

Tallahassee Democrat
July 10, 2025

Paler shade of blue: Democratic Party loses its voter majority in Leon County, data shows
The Democratic drop comes before an election in which the party hopes to rebound from a devastating midterm election two years ago.

It may come as a shocking realization to many: After decades of dominance, the Democratic Party no longer is Leon County’s majority political party.

In other words, Florida’s capital county – where Democrats routinely pick up two-thirds of the vote and hold majorities on city and county elected boards – turned a lighter shade of blue last month, according to voter registration records.

It follows another revelation earlier this year: That Republicans after overtaking Democrats in the number of registered voters statewide at the end of 2021 are now on track to have a lead of one million by the time of the November general election.

Registration is down according to the numbers, just down more among Democrats:

My point is, the system is distributed across 67 counties, elected positions with number crunching performed by minions statewide, and your conspiracy has them all in cahoots.

That's kinda nutty, ain't it? To just cook up in your head with no evidence and throw out there on the internet?

 

[seminole97]

In case you're wondering if the guy in Leon county is a GOP plant:

Meet the Supervisor of Elections​

Mark Earley has been working in service to the voters of Leon County for over 30 years . He was first elected Supervisor of Elections in 2016 following the retirement of his mentor, former Supervisor Ion Sancho. Mark is responsible for the conduct of elections in Leon County and works closely with other local, state, and federal agencies to protect the right of every voter to cast their ballot and have it counted accurately and securely.
In addition to his elected office, Mark serves as a former President of Florida Supervisors of Elections, Inc. the state association for Florida’s Supervisors of Elections. In addition, he serves as the Vice-Chair of the association’s Cybersecurity Committee and is a member of its Legislative Fast Response Team, where he advocates for legislation that benefits Florida voters.
At the federal level, Mark serves on the Executive Committees of both the Elections Infrastructure Information Sharing and Analysis Center (EI-ISAC) and the Local Leadership Council of the U.S. Election Assistance Commission (EAC). He also serves as a representative of the Election Center on the United States Postal Service Mailers’ Technical Advisory Committee.
Mark has earned both state and national certifications in the field of election administration as a Master Florida Certified Elections Professional and a Certified Elections Registration Administrator. He holds a Mechanical Engineering degree from the FAMU/FSU College of Engineering.
During his years of service, Mark has been integral to the development of new election systems, processes, and standards that have become the norm across Florida and the nation, including a lead role in developing a post-election audit system which provides an unprecedented level of transparency, security, and validation for elections. He was inducted into the Election Center’s National Hall of Fame in August of 2023.