ADVERTISEMENT

Torvik '20-'21 T-Rank Projections

Raptorpeeps

Raptorpeeps

HB MVP
Sep 24, 2017
2,369
3,133
113
Iowa #26, #7in B1G: http://www.barttorvik.com/

http://www.barttorvik.com/?conlimit=B10&state=All&year=2021&sort=

Assumes Garza, JW, and the whole crew are back.

Considerably less sanguine than the B1G Champs and Final Four projections being tossed around here. Interesting but don't put a whole lot of stock in it. Texas #1? Nah.

Wisconsin, MSU, Michigan, Iowa and Ohio State will all be very good. Indiana and Rutgers will both be improved. If both Cockburn and Dosunmu are back for Illinois, they might be the best team in the league.

I really hope we have a season.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: Obviously Oblivious, BigEddySprings and BlackNGoldBleeder
Raptorpeeps said:
Iowa #26, #7in B1G: http://www.barttorvik.com/

http://www.barttorvik.com/?conlimit=B10&state=All&year=2021&sort=

Assumes Garza, JW, and the whole crew are back.

Considerably less sanguine than the B1G Champs and Final Four projections being tossed around here. Interesting but don't put a whole lot of stock in it. Texas #1? Nah.

Wisconsin, MSU, Michigan, Iowa and Ohio State will all be very good. Indiana and Rutgers will both be improved. If both Cockburn and Dosunmu are back for Illinois, they might be the best team in the league.

I really hope we have a season.
Click to expand...

lol- no you don’t.
 
  • Like
Reactions: bojihawk44 and BBHawk
Jonnymungo said:
That Is just ridiculous! I mean we may be really disappointed with not meeting expectations this upcoming basketball season but to assume Garza and Joe are back and still pick us for 7th place? C’Mon Man!! :confused::eek:
Click to expand...

Where would you pick Iowa? And Why?
 
Raptorpeeps said:
Wisconsin has to be the favorite but I agree with your top three. This will obviously be adjusted when the NBA/transfer picture sorts itself out. Even after that, I don't see any way Iowa should be lower than 4th.
Click to expand...

Also, how up to date are some of his projections? He still has Leech on the ISU projection for 2021 and he left their program in the fall of 2019.
 
TrianglePlace said:
I have been checking Barttorvik and dont understand the Iowa projection.

He has Bohannon averaging less than 7 PPG and 3 APG.
Click to expand...

I think it's pretty obvious that the regression used his stats from his 10 games last year -- 8 PPG. 3 APG.

A flaw but not likely a fatal one. Don't know if adding 3PPG and .3 APG would really change the team ranking.
 
Raptorpeeps said:
Where would you pick Iowa? And Why?
Click to expand...

Too many variables and unknowns.

Is Jordan Bohannon given another year? Is he healthy? What about PMac? Nunge?

On paper, Iowa has a lot of good pieces in place. The question, in my mind, centers on depth. My hope is that Nunge is healthy and finally able to showcase the talent Fran had been raving about prior to last season (if you recall Nunge and CJ were the two guys Fran voiced being most excited for). My hope is JBo is healthy, fresh, and ready to have a monster senior year. My hope is Patrick is healthy and ready to contribute solid minutes off the bench.

Obviously, I'm hoping for all three. But if at least one or two of those happen, Iowa should be very good. That's of course assuming guys stay healthy. Another X factor is Joe T. I was really encouraged by how he did not have the freshman fade last season and seemed to get stronger at the end. His shot certainly improved.

So, assuming we have a strong rotation of Garza, CMac, CJ, JBo, Weezy, Joe T, Nunge, PMac and one or two of the fresmen getting a handful of ticks here and there, I will say Iowa can compete for a conference championship and can make a deep run in March. Will they? Great question. But the potential is certainly there. What makes me like Iowa more than a lot of other teams is experience. You will have a lot of seasoned veterans on the floor next season. Could and should make a difference in a lot of close games.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: LaQuintaHawkeye, Raptorpeeps, kceasthawk and 1 other person
TrianglePlace said:
I have been checking Barttorvik and dont understand the Iowa projection.

He has Bohannon averaging less than 7 PPG and 3 APG.
Click to expand...

It's based on his projection that the Iowa defense will again be bad. He has Iowa's defense better only than Nebraska in the league (115th in the country in adjusted defense). I really like the team Iowa has coming back. But Iowa couldn't guard (compared to the good defensive teams in the league last year). That's why a borderline elite offensive team in efficiency finished 5th in the league, not first or second. Now, one could make the argument that Iowa will be better on defense in 2020-21. But they actually have to go do it, not just talk about it. It's hard to win the league when you are one of the 2-3 worst teams in the conference from a defensive efficiency standpoint. If I were to target one area of Iowa's defense for improvement, it would be 2-point defense. Opponents shot over 50% on 2-pointers last year, which was 211th in the country. That's not on one guy, it's really on the entire team. Until Iowa can be at least okay on defense they won't be winning a conference title.
 
  • Like
Reactions: ConiferHawk, Raptorpeeps, BigEddySprings and 1 other person
Raptorpeeps said:
I think it's pretty obvious that the regression used his stats from his 10 games last year -- 8 PPG. 3 APG.

A flaw but not likely a fatal one. Don't know if adding 3PPG and .3 APG would really change the team ranking.
Click to expand...

Well hes a career 11.7 PPG and 4.5 APG guy that was playing on bad hips. Why would you only add 3 PPG and .3 APG?
 
  • Like
Reactions: perryhawk
Raptorpeeps said:
Iowa #26, #7in B1G: http://www.barttorvik.com/

http://www.barttorvik.com/?conlimit=B10&state=All&year=2021&sort=

Assumes Garza, JW, and the whole crew are back.

Considerably less sanguine than the B1G Champs and Final Four projections being tossed around here. Interesting but don't put a whole lot of stock in it. Texas #1? Nah.

Wisconsin, MSU, Michigan, Iowa and Ohio State will all be very good. Indiana and Rutgers will both be improved. If both Cockburn and Dosunmu are back for Illinois, they might be the best team in the league.

I really hope we have a season.
Click to expand...


Texas's ranking is because he has them as the most talented roster in the country. They also return 100% of their minutes. Talent plus experience gives them the nod.

Even still, you wonder why he values Texas's talent but seems to overlook a team like Penn State who he has 22nd in his rankings, but is near Nebraska in the talent rating posted above plus lost a few key seniors.
 
My first thought is this:
1) I think this team has talent, depth, and closers in tight games. We all know the roster and the only concern is will there be enough opportunities to feed all the hungry mouths on offense?

2) Free throw shooting should be improved this year. It wasn’t terrible last year, but I think the top 8 guys will be exceptional FT shooters. This should help win close games. These guys are experienced veterans and I think this will only help as this team plays on the road in conference play this upcoming year.

3) Defense: will this team be able to get stops and prevent runs on the road in the B1G this year? I don’t expect this team to play defense like Virginia or MSU, but I do think there are guys on this team that value that end of the floor. Having guys like Joe Toussaint, C.J. Frederick, Joe W. Connor, Nunge, (and Perkins, Ahron Ulis, the Murray twins available if they all play this year) will hopefully help the defensive efficiency and rebounding.
4) At this point, Fran has said this team has good chemistry off the court. They hang out together. They seem to like each other. I think that bodes well for a stretch run, with hopefully no distractions and no extended losing streaks.

5) I think this team will have no problem with the heightened expectations. Guys like Garza and JBo, will have no problems with this pressure and seem like they will be able to keep themselves and other guys loose and have fun as the games get more and more important as the season progresses.
 
  • Like
Reactions: skydog0784
Jonnymungo said:
My first thought is this:
1) I think this team has talent, depth, and closers in tight games. We all know the roster and the only concern is will there be enough opportunities to feed all the hungry mouths on offense?

2) Free throw shooting should be improved this year. It wasn’t terrible last year, but I think the top 8 guys will be exceptional FT shooters. This should help win close games. These guys are experienced veterans and I think this will only help as this team plays on the road in conference play this upcoming year.

3) Defense: will this team be able to get stops and prevent runs on the road in the B1G this year? I don’t expect this team to play defense like Virginia or MSU, but I do think there are guys on this team that value that end of the floor. Having guys like Joe Toussaint, C.J. Frederick, Joe W. Connor, Nunge, (and Perkins, Ahron Ulis, the Murray twins available if they all play this year) will hopefully help the defensive efficiency and rebounding.
4) At this point, Fran has said this team has good chemistry off the court. They hang out together. They seem to like each other. I think that bodes well for a stretch run, with hopefully no distractions and no extended losing streaks.

5) I think this team will have no problem with the heightened expectations. Guys like Garza and JBo, will have no problems with this pressure and seem like they will be able to keep themselves and other guys loose and have fun as the games get more and more important as the season progresses.
Click to expand...

Good breakdown! I will just give some additional emphasis to the rebounding aspect of defense. Offensively I have no doubt that this will be a high level team. Last year I felt like the defense was clearly improved over the previous year BUT rebounding was sometimes an issue that under cut that defensive play.

This team knows that rebounding was a problem....and with added emphasis and maturity this team can improve rebounding and therefore improve the defense. The level of improvement in rebounding and defense will go a long way in determining the final record and finish in a very very tough conference.
 
  • Like
Reactions: skydog0784 and Jonnymungo
perryhawk said:
Good breakdown! I will just give some additional emphasis to the rebounding aspect of defense. Offensively I have no doubt that this will be a high level team. Last year I felt like the defense was clearly improved over the previous year BUT rebounding was sometimes an issue that under cut that defensive play.

This team knows that rebounding was a problem....and with added emphasis and maturity this team can improve rebounding and therefore improve the defense. The level of improvement in rebounding and defense will go a long way in determining the final record and finish in a very very tough conference.
Click to expand...
Its funny you mention the rebounding. I was going to make this a separate point from the overall defense, but for fear of making my post too long, I chose to combine rebounding with defense.
Like you mentioned Perry, I was at times, pleasantly surprised and more than happy with the defense last year. I do think that being able to hold teams down a little better on the road is where I seen problems last year and It will need to keep improving, even just a little bit more this coming year, for this team to contend for a conference championship. But it seemed generally better as mentioned this past year, without diving too much into the statistics, especially from the previous couple years.

I have always said to other fans when watching these games, with Frans offense, holding teams to 70ish will provide an an excellent opportunity for a W game in and game out. They don’t have to be awesome on D, just competent. Hitting the glass a little better and limiting second chance points on the boards will also help keep a team from reaching that 70 mark. Maybe Nunge and Garza combo help with this... (Btw, I realize 70 is just a number and who knows from game to game, what it will take to get a W, but the idea is with great offense, you don’t have to hold teams to 55 points every night).
 
  • Like
Reactions: Raptorpeeps and perryhawk
He recognizes that Garza, the obvious leading contender for B1G and National POY, is returning. From that starting point, given his talent rating, he must feel the rest of our roster is pretty mediocre.
 
TrianglePlace said:
Well hes a career 11.7 PPG and 4.5 APG guy that was playing on bad hips. Why would you only add 3 PPG and .3 APG?
Click to expand...

Because that's not the way it works... but OK add 5 more ppg and 2 more assists. Do you think that changes the ranking?

I would be skeptical but maybe.
 
Ronman said:
He recognizes that Garza, the obvious leading contender for B1G and National POY, is returning. From that starting point, given his talent rating, he must feel the rest of our roster is pretty mediocre.
Click to expand...

Joe Wieskamp is All Big Ten player, potentially......already.
CJ Frederick is just a **** good BB player.
Jordan Bohannon, possibly best shooter in Big10
Connor leads nation in Assist to Turns.
Jack Nunge is 7 feet tall, previous starter.
Joe Toussaint is sure to flash more, with year under his belt.
PMac was a 4 star prospect.....don't sleep on Pmac

Come on, man.
 
IowaNiceHawk said:
Joe Wieskamp is All Big Ten player, potentially......already.
CJ Frederick is just a **** good BB player.
Jordan Bohannon, possibly best shooter in Big10
Connor leads nation in Assist to Turns.
Jack Nunge is 7 feet tall, previous starter.
Joe Toussaint is sure to flash more, with year under his belt.
PMac was a 4 star prospect.....don't sleep on Pmac

Come on, man.
Click to expand...

So..... you're saying we're rated lower than expected because of defense?
 
Ronman said:
He recognizes that Garza, the obvious leading contender for B1G and National POY, is returning. From that starting point, given his talent rating, he must feel the rest of our roster is pretty mediocre.
Click to expand...

That's the argument I was making last year. The rest of the roster was not all that good in 19-20. We all loved the team (as we should) for over-performing pre-season expectations, but that was mostly due to Garza's unreal year.
 
Raptorpeeps said:
Iowa #26, #7in B1G: http://www.barttorvik.com/

http://www.barttorvik.com/?conlimit=B10&state=All&year=2021&sort=

Assumes Garza, JW, and the whole crew are back.

Considerably less sanguine than the B1G Champs and Final Four projections being tossed around here. Interesting but don't put a whole lot of stock in it. Texas #1? Nah.

Wisconsin, MSU, Michigan, Iowa and Ohio State will all be very good. Indiana and Rutgers will both be improved. If both Cockburn and Dosunmu are back for Illinois, they might be the best team in the league.

I really hope we have a season.
Click to expand...

Interesting stuff, and I also agree that we might need to temper our expectations a LITTLE bit regarding the championship talk (champions play defense and I gotta see these guys improve on D before I believe they're ready to do something special).

With that in mind, Torvik is by no means an end-all be all.
In 2019, Torvik projected Florida as #1, UNC as #5, and Iowa all the way down at #55. Florida finished 19-12, UNC finished 14-19, and Iowa finished in the AP top 25.
http://barttorvik.com/trank-time-machine.php

Informative, but take with cautious skepticism.
 
Fran-Con-2 said:
Interesting stuff, and I also agree that we might need to temper our expectations a LITTLE bit regarding the championship talk (champions play defense and I gotta see these guys improve on D before I believe they're ready to do something special).

With that in mind, Torvik is by no means an end-all be all.
In 2019, Torvik projected Florida as #1, UNC as #5, and Iowa all the way down at #55. Florida finished 19-12, UNC finished 14-19, and Iowa finished in the AP top 25.
http://barttorvik.com/trank-time-machine.php

Informative, but take with cautious skepticism.
Click to expand...

T Rank is regression. No one would ever claim it’s even close to perfect predictive tool. When I find one, I’ll be too rich to talk to any of you.

I find it interesting because it’s not biased in the same way fans can be biased. In fact, you can usually tell who wears the thickest black and gold blinder goggles by who expresses the most butt hurt over it.
 
Last edited:
IowaNiceHawk said:
Nunge started as a Freshman, so if he's healthy, that is going to be
an adequate replacement for Ryan.
Click to expand...

This is fairly optimistic, IMO.

Nunge has a long ways to go to be an equal replacement to Kriener.

And that team Nunge started on as a freshman lost 19 games.
 
Ronman said:
He recognizes that Garza, the obvious leading contender for B1G and National POY, is returning. From that starting point, given his talent rating, he must feel the rest of our roster is pretty mediocre.
Click to expand...
The talent stuff is only based on recruiting rankings and playing time. Most national title contenders have the McDonald's all-americans. It's a good base to start because of that, but players can over or under perform.

Iowa normally has a mix of a handful of 4 stars and lower tier guys so we're normally middle of the pack.

Past decade for Iowa.
 
Defense, defense, defense, what would anyone consider good defense for an Iowa team going forward? Iowa plays at an extremely fast pace which in turn allows the opposition lots of opportunities to score also.
Iowa players for whatever reason have never played lock down defense and at the pace that Iowa wants to plays at, for Iowa to force their opponents to use all the the shot clock it would keep Iowa from reaching their goal.
Unless Iowa changes it's offensive philosophy Iowa will never reach the defensive goals that everyone talks about....it's never going to happen.
The caveat to all this is,next years team may be Fran's best team at Iowa or for that reason maybe Fran's best team in his coaching career, we shall see.....
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: skydog0784 and Raptorpeeps
The Torvik site is really interesting (and free), and provides a lot of useful information, going back to 2008. Torvik's data back to 2010 provides a reasonable case for being skeptical of Iowa's prospects for a great season next year. In the 10 years from 2010-2019 (the last 10 years with a NCAA tourney), 29 Big Ten teams advanced to or past the Sweet 16. Only 4 (13.7%) of those teams finished in the bottom 4 in the league in adjusted defensive efficiency (ADJDE) in conference play (a stat you can find on his site). So having a good season, at least as defined by NCAA Tourney success, is really hard to do when you're a bottom-feeding Big Ten team on defense.

It's hard to see how Iowa will be anything but a bottom-feeding defensive team next year. Using Torvik's numbers, for each of the last 3 years, Iowa has finished last (14th) in the Big Ten in ADJDE in conference play. With Bohannan's return next year, Iowa is not likely to get better on defense. Perhaps, somehow, Iowa could get to 9th or 10th next year in ADJDE in conference play. I'm skeptical, but that would really help.

Still, a truly great offense can sometimes overcome bad defense. Perhaps with Bohannan, Iowa can double-down on the offensive end, and go from being a really good offensive team, to being a great offensive team. 3 of the 4 Big Ten teams to advance to the Sweet 16 in the last 10 years with poor conference-play defenses, had great offenses: Michigan in 2014 with adjusted offensive efficiency (ADJOE) in conference play at 125.7; Michigan in 2017 with ADJOE in conference play at 124.1; and Wisconsin in 2011 with ADJOE in conference play at 127.9. So, if Iowa can somehow improve its conference play ADJOE from 117.9, good for the 23rd place since 2010 (and 1st in 2020), to say 125, perhaps Iowa can achieve the great season that we have been waiting for. But 125 in ADJOE in conference play is a big ask. Only 5 Big Ten teams have achieved that number in the last 11 years in conference play. Ultimately, having a great season with a great offense, and a poor defense, is hard to do, but Iowa may have no other choice but to try. Should be interesting.
 
  • Like
Reactions: skydog0784 and Raptorpeeps
AMAYS said:
The Torvik site is really interesting (and free), and provides a lot of useful information, going back to 2008. Torvik's data back to 2010 provides a reasonable case for being skeptical of Iowa's prospects for a great season next year. In the 10 years from 2010-2019 (the last 10 years with a NCAA tourney), 29 Big Ten teams advanced to or past the Sweet 16. Only 4 (13.7%) of those teams finished in the bottom 4 in the league in adjusted defensive efficiency (ADJDE) in conference play (a stat you can find on his site). So having a good season, at least as defined by NCAA Tourney success, is really hard to do when you're a bottom-feeding Big Ten team on defense.

It's hard to see how Iowa will be anything but a bottom-feeding defensive team next year. Using Torvik's numbers, for each of the last 3 years, Iowa has finished last (14th) in the Big Ten in ADJDE in conference play. With Bohannan's return next year, Iowa is not likely to get better on defense. Perhaps, somehow, Iowa could get to 9th or 10th next year in ADJDE in conference play. I'm skeptical, but that would really help.

Still, a truly great offense can sometimes overcome bad defense. Perhaps with Bohannan, Iowa can double-down on the offensive end, and go from being a really good offensive team, to being a great offensive team. 3 of the 4 Big Ten teams to advance to the Sweet 16 in the last 10 years with poor conference-play defenses, had great offenses: Michigan in 2014 with adjusted offensive efficiency (ADJOE) in conference play at 125.7; Michigan in 2017 with ADJOE in conference play at 124.1; and Wisconsin in 2011 with ADJOE in conference play at 127.9. So, if Iowa can somehow improve its conference play ADJOE from 117.9, good for the 23rd place since 2010 (and 1st in 2020), to say 125, perhaps Iowa can achieve the great season that we have been waiting for. But 125 in ADJOE in conference play is a big ask. Only 5 Big Ten teams have achieved that number in the last 11 years in conference play. Ultimately, having a great season with a great offense, and a poor defense, is hard to do, but Iowa may have no other choice but to try. Should be interesting.
Click to expand...

Really good post. QCHawk's too.

I think we can improve defensive numbers significantly just by rebounding the ball better.
 
  • Like
Reactions: skydog0784
IllQChawk said:
Defense, defense, defense, what would anyone consider good defense for an Iowa team going forward? Iowa plays at an extremely fast pace which in turn allows the opposition lots of opportunities to score also.
Iowa players for whatever reason have never played lock down defense and at the pace that Iowa wants to plays at, for Iowa to force their opponents to use all the the shot clock it would keep Iowa from reaching their goal.
Unless Iowa changes it's offensive philosophy Iowa will never reach the defensive goals that everyone talks about....it's never going to happen.
The caveat to all this is,next years team may be Fran's best team at Iowa or for that reason maybe Fran's best team in his coaching career, we shall see.....
Click to expand...

It has nothing to do with how fast Iowa plays. Torvik and KenPom and the other advanced stats don't judge defense on points per game, it's on points per possession. Iowa didn't have an elite offense just because it played fast, it had an elite offense because they were very efficient. Iowa had the 2nd-fastest team last year in terms of possessions per game (behind only Penn State) but was also the most efficient in terms of points per possession. Not only did they play fast (compared to their peers), they were efficient. But in conference games only, Iowa was worse on defensive points per possession than Northwestern and Nebraska. That is just flat-out bad. If you take non-conference games as well, Iowa was better than those teams but still far behind the other Big 10 teams. The conference games are skewed a bit by the annihilation by Purdue and at Michigan, but Iowa was just not good on defense in conference games. Period. That's how you are barely above .500 with an elite offense.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Raptorpeeps and AMAYS
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

cigaretteman

UI Children’s Hospital makes top 50 in 9 of 11 specialties

Replies
0
Views
281
Off Topic
cigaretteman
cigaretteman
Adam Jacobi

Monday Six-Pack, 8/19: Playoffs? PLAYOFFS?!

Replies
1
Views
1K
The Press Box
WaterlooChazz
W
cigaretteman

Pick a side in the Caitlin Clark-Angel Reese rivalry, but don’t look away

Replies
74
Views
4K
Off Topic
ottumwan in tx
ottumwan in tx
cigaretteman

Opinion Trump and Vance seem ready to offend as many women voters as possible

Replies
3
Views
333
Off Topic
noStemsnoSTICKS
N
cigaretteman

Peyton Manning’s new docuseries captures Caitlin Clark’s historic season

Replies
2
Views
2K
Off Topic
binsfeldcyhawk2
binsfeldcyhawk2
ADVERTISEMENT

Latest posts

ADVERTISEMENT
Top Bottom
Back