It has been exactly one month since Donald Trump was elected president again, and he appears to be on the verge of something historically dubious: seeing two of his picks for marquee Cabinet posts go down in flames. This despite them needing only Republican votes.
Defense secretary pick Pete Hegseth appears to be severely endangered as Republicans, including Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa), have balked at him. Hegseth, a former Fox News host, faces allegations of alcohol abuse, abusing women and financial mismanagement. Hegseth has denied these allegations, and allies have cited the anonymous sources behind many of them. But the situation is such that the Trump team is considering alternatives.
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If Hegseth’s pick is withdrawn, it would mark a second high-profile loss for Trump, after his attorney general pick, former congressman Matt Gaetz (R-Florida), lasted just eight days.
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That would be highly unusual. The emerging question is what that says about Trump’s political capital, with still a month and a half until he’s actually sworn in.
Trump came into office triumphant and claiming a huge mandate to do drastic things, and already we’re seeing his agenda thwarted by his own party in high-profile ways.
Let’s start with the precedents. Newly elected presidents have seen their Cabinet picks fail, but generally not for two marquee posts, and generally not this quickly.
President Joe Biden lost his pick to run the Office of Management and Budget in 2021, and Trump and George W. Bush lost labor secretary nominees early on. Barack Obama also saw two separate picks for commerce secretary withdrawn (one of them over political differences rather than scandal), as well as a withdrawn pick for health and human services secretary. But none of these posts are on par with attorney general or defense secretary.
To get close to what we’re witnessing today, you’d have to go all the way back to 1993, when two of Bill Clinton’s initial picks for attorney general withdrew. (Both, as it happens, withdrew over something that might seem rather quaint today: hiring undocumented workers).
And then in 1989, George H.W. Bush’s pick for defense secretary lost an actual floor vote, amid allegations eerily similar to some of those leveled against Hegseth.
Of the withdrawn nominees mentioned above, only two were out before the incoming president took office.
Which brings us to what this means. There is no doubt that having his top Cabinet picks struggle — and be resisted by his own party — is a bad sign for Trump, but the question is how bad?
Trump clearly challenged his party with unorthodox early picks, perhaps reasoning that if they didn’t work out, they could be quickly and simply replaced. He promptly substituted former Florida attorney general Pam Bondi (R) for Gaetz. Perhaps the play here is to shoot for the moon and see what he can get, and then fall back on more-confirmable picks if need be.
And perhaps he doesn’t care about the momentary bad news; Trump, after all, has bulldozed through a multitude of controversies, scandals and failures and remained his party’s dominant force. He’s also term-limited, so future campaigns aren’t part of the calculus.
But Trump also has his political capital to mind at a crucial juncture.
He’s coming off a supposedly momentous victory (which wasn’t actually as large as advertised), and some in his party have argued that means Republicans should do pretty much whatever he wants (checks and balances be darned, apparently). Trump’s plans are extensive and in some cases extreme, but the GOP’s majorities are small — especially in the House — meaning there is precious little margin for error.
That means there was and is a premium on bringing his party to heel. What’s transpired during Trump’s first big challenges to congressional Republicans has thus far has been anything but.
To this point, a sufficient number of Senate Republicans are demonstrating that they can stand up to Trump and apparently don’t fear the consequences too much. And you could forgive them for feeling emboldened to do it more going forward.
That could certainly change in the weeks to come, particularly if Trump and his allies start truly going to war against Republicans who don’t fall in line behind his picks. Senate Republicans are also often using careful, judicious and coded language to express their discontent rather than thumbing their noses at Trump.
But there is a tone being set right now. And it’s not a great one for a president-elect just a month after his triumphant rise to power.
Defense secretary pick Pete Hegseth appears to be severely endangered as Republicans, including Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa), have balked at him. Hegseth, a former Fox News host, faces allegations of alcohol abuse, abusing women and financial mismanagement. Hegseth has denied these allegations, and allies have cited the anonymous sources behind many of them. But the situation is such that the Trump team is considering alternatives.
ADVERTISING
If Hegseth’s pick is withdrawn, it would mark a second high-profile loss for Trump, after his attorney general pick, former congressman Matt Gaetz (R-Florida), lasted just eight days.
🏛️
Follow Politics
That would be highly unusual. The emerging question is what that says about Trump’s political capital, with still a month and a half until he’s actually sworn in.
Trump came into office triumphant and claiming a huge mandate to do drastic things, and already we’re seeing his agenda thwarted by his own party in high-profile ways.
Let’s start with the precedents. Newly elected presidents have seen their Cabinet picks fail, but generally not for two marquee posts, and generally not this quickly.
President Joe Biden lost his pick to run the Office of Management and Budget in 2021, and Trump and George W. Bush lost labor secretary nominees early on. Barack Obama also saw two separate picks for commerce secretary withdrawn (one of them over political differences rather than scandal), as well as a withdrawn pick for health and human services secretary. But none of these posts are on par with attorney general or defense secretary.
To get close to what we’re witnessing today, you’d have to go all the way back to 1993, when two of Bill Clinton’s initial picks for attorney general withdrew. (Both, as it happens, withdrew over something that might seem rather quaint today: hiring undocumented workers).
And then in 1989, George H.W. Bush’s pick for defense secretary lost an actual floor vote, amid allegations eerily similar to some of those leveled against Hegseth.
Of the withdrawn nominees mentioned above, only two were out before the incoming president took office.
Which brings us to what this means. There is no doubt that having his top Cabinet picks struggle — and be resisted by his own party — is a bad sign for Trump, but the question is how bad?
Trump clearly challenged his party with unorthodox early picks, perhaps reasoning that if they didn’t work out, they could be quickly and simply replaced. He promptly substituted former Florida attorney general Pam Bondi (R) for Gaetz. Perhaps the play here is to shoot for the moon and see what he can get, and then fall back on more-confirmable picks if need be.
And perhaps he doesn’t care about the momentary bad news; Trump, after all, has bulldozed through a multitude of controversies, scandals and failures and remained his party’s dominant force. He’s also term-limited, so future campaigns aren’t part of the calculus.
But Trump also has his political capital to mind at a crucial juncture.
He’s coming off a supposedly momentous victory (which wasn’t actually as large as advertised), and some in his party have argued that means Republicans should do pretty much whatever he wants (checks and balances be darned, apparently). Trump’s plans are extensive and in some cases extreme, but the GOP’s majorities are small — especially in the House — meaning there is precious little margin for error.
That means there was and is a premium on bringing his party to heel. What’s transpired during Trump’s first big challenges to congressional Republicans has thus far has been anything but.
To this point, a sufficient number of Senate Republicans are demonstrating that they can stand up to Trump and apparently don’t fear the consequences too much. And you could forgive them for feeling emboldened to do it more going forward.
That could certainly change in the weeks to come, particularly if Trump and his allies start truly going to war against Republicans who don’t fall in line behind his picks. Senate Republicans are also often using careful, judicious and coded language to express their discontent rather than thumbing their noses at Trump.
But there is a tone being set right now. And it’s not a great one for a president-elect just a month after his triumphant rise to power.
