Trump is gaining in presidential bid. Now the question
- Thread starter 1inamillion
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Correct. There was actually a decent amount of movement in 2016. Sometimes Hillary was up 6-7, other times, they were even. But her being up 3-4 points seemed to be the average. Generally Trump took around 42% share, Hillary took 46%, and 12% were undecided.
Now compare that to 2020. The lead for Biden has been remarkably stable. In the last 3 months. The low point for Joe was 7.6 and the high point was 9.6. That's not a whole lot of movement. And Biden has been over 50% for virtually all of that time, too, compared to Trump's 42%, and 8% undecided.
Trump's road this time is far far harder.
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You act like this does not cut both ways. Just like anyone who thinks Portland is “under siege“ and that it will spread to your hometown soon.
I think it will narrow some. By how much will depends on peeling away voters from Biden. Getting people to not vote or third party. I really don't see Trump growing his support much. His numbers are baked in u either love him or hate him.
Does it matter? We all know you’re just going to brush aside any link (of which there are many) and pretend like it isn’t credible. We all totally believe you that you aren’t a Trump supporter though.
I still fully expect Barr to announce a criminal investigation against Biden. His campaign is getting into desperation mode. Don't be surprised if they announce an investigation in September.
The Major difference between Obama and Trump is Obama actually cared about the country and worked 16 hour days. Mr Executive Time Trump barely puts in 4 hours a day On average.
Why do you obsess so much over the national polling numbers? They mean virtually nothing, except for bragging rights. Have you learned nothing at all from 2016? By focusing on national numbers you're only setting yourself up for more rage and anguish if Biden wins the popular vote but loses the election anyway. The only thing that matters is the electoral vote. And to that end the polling numbers really only matter in about 13 states. Everything else is irrelevant.
Trump is going to win WY, ID, WV, OK, ND, SD, KY, AL, MS, AR, UT, LA, SC, KS, MT, AK, KS, MO, and TN. That means he has 121 electoral votes pretty much in the bag.
Biden is going to win NY, NJ, DC, CA, WA, OR, NM, VA, DE, NH, VT, CT, RI, IL, CO, and HI. That means he has 199 electoral votes pretty much in the bag.
Trump will probably get at least 4 out of 5 electoral votes in Nebraska and Biden will probably get at least 3 out of 4 in Maine. That puts Trump at 125 and Biden at 200.
These are the undecided states that will determine who wins the election:
Texas (38)
Florida (29)
Pennsylvania (20)
Ohio (18)
Georgia (16)
Michigan (16)
North Carolina (15)
Arizona (11)
Wisconsin (10)
Minnesota (10)
Iowa (6)
New Hampshire (6)
Nevada (4)
Trump needs to get 145 electoral votes from that list and Biden needs to get 70. And that is exactly everything that matters in this election.
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Not much. This strategy could easily backfire. But what are Trump's options at this point? He needs to suppress votes and drag Joe down. He's cornered and willing to chew his own leg. I would be shocked if criminal investigation option wasn't being seriously discussed in Trump's inner circle.
Agreed. Battleground polls are more important. And Biden is winning all of them except for North Carolina. Now these leads aren't gigantic. 2-6 points depending on the state. But the generic poll becomes important, at this point, because it gives a pretty good signal on how these margin of errors will break. A huge generic lead for Biden probably means that the margin of error will benefit him as opposed to benefitting Trump.
I listed it as one of the 13 states that are undecided and will help decide the election. How much closer did you expect me to give it credit for?
Possibly. But the national polling numbers didn't help Clinton with the margin of error in battleground states like MI, WI, and PA. I just don't see much information to be gleaned from national polls that include a significant number of respondents from California and New York and other states where the outcome is a foregone conclusion.
It's bit tricky at this point, but the lean of each state has to be factored in then. If a state has a traditional lean of, say, 3 points more Republican than average, and Hillary is up 3 points in the generic poll, she may only be tied in that particular state. If a state has a 3 point lean towards the Democrats, that may mean she is actually up 6 points in that particular state.
My understanding is that the generic poll is a quality check of the state polls. Go with the state polls first and try to adjust their accuracy with the national polls.
The biggest questions going into the debates is if they'll be live "fact checks".
I assume Dems will demand it because of Trump's propensity to tell falsehoods.
That was an accident. I edited it just now to show it as a tossup only, although I would be very surprised if Minnesota flips to Trump. No Republican POTUS candidate has won Minnesota since Nixon in 1972. Even when Reagan beat Mondale 525-13, 10 of Mondale’s 13 electoral votes came from his home state of Minnesota.
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Still no link, despite there being many? Gee, whoda thunk?
You don't suppose that might help explain how yo ubecame dumb enough to think I'm a Trump supporter, do yo?
Trump won 11 of those 13 States in 2016. Do you see why Trump's path is so narrow? Minnesota and Nevada amount to 10 EC votes. The odds of Trump retaining all 11 States is astronomical.
Your observation is extremely accurate, imo. And it's also why Democrats have to be pleased where things stand now.
And it certainly explains the various voter suppression efforts from the righties.
That's the most ignorant thing I've read on here in awhile and I'm not surprised that the 3 biggest mouths on here agreed with it. That's been the Dimms only message for 4 years, that they aint Trump. You poor misguided brainwashed fools.
She was up 13 points last October in some polls. Polls can be very biased. If the polls are under 5% points come election time you better be nervous. A lot of people on this board are obviously very liberal and I respect your voice. I just don’t like the fact that when I or others support Trump and his vision we get called every name in the book. For a party that speaks out against division and hate it surely spews from your mouths pretty quickly. I don’t get it. I didn’t like Obama but he was my President and I respected him and hoped he did well for our country. I sure didn’t call people names that supported him and riot in the streets. Very disappointing how everyone is reacting to this political game!
I read somewhere that she didn’t have a 50% share in any poll before the election. That’s the difference here. People have made their mind up about Trump. I just don’t see the numbers moving that much.
Most predicted she would win by around 2 million votes, she actually won by about 3 million.
Is this a reals post? Trump led the movement that said that Obama couldn't be president because he was too African. You Trumpers showed Obama zero respect.
Just a heads up - if you’re going to call someone that is smarter than you dumb, it would behoove you to proofread your post and make sure it isn’t riddled with spelling errors.
And still no link. Remember, there are many. Just none that you are smart enough to locate.
It might be better if you'd loosen your pointy white cap before parading around HR in it so you don't illustrate that you're dumb enough to imagine misplacing a space is "riddled with spelling errors".
Where do you think Qanon and similar kooky right wing nonsense originates? We know that Russia is behind radicalizing the alt right here. You think there aren’t any trolls here posting Russia created content?
“Russia’s army of media influencers, social media bots and trolls has increasingly amplified alt-right and far-right narratives in the United States since the 2016 presidential election.
Russia’s efforts to push propaganda and disinformation, experts say, are nothing new and extend beyond the U.S. to nations in Europe. But they have seemed to evolve in recent months, increasingly infiltrating and engaging with alt-right and far-right Americans online.
Moscow’s aim is widely viewed as exploiting divides and sowing distrust of democratic institutions, the latter a conclusion reached by the U.S. intelligence community in its initial investigation of Russia’s interference in the presidential election, including overt efforts to push propaganda.”
Russia’s propaganda machine amplifies alt-right
Russia’s army of media influencers, social media bots and trolls are giving new voice to the far right.
thehill.com
Here’s What Russia’s Propaganda Network Wants You to Read
How a new system for tracking Kremlin influence operations reveals what Moscow is thinking.
www.politico.com
Russia Is Co-opting Angry Young Men
Fight clubs, neo-Nazi soccer hooligans, and motorcycle gangs serve as conduits for the Kremlin’s influence operations in Western countries.
Sick comeback - “I’m not dumb - YOU’RE dumb for thinking that my post with multiple spelling errors makes me look dumb!”
I’d provide you with a link, but I’m not sure you’re smart enough to figure out how to click on it.
You'd provide me with a link, except you don't have a brain so you can't execute a Google search.
Nobody ever told you losing the gene pool lottery was going to be easy, did they?
He said Russian generated material. He didn’t say Sergei is sitting in Moscow posting on here.
A large percentage of pro Trump Memes and other things you find on Facebook, etc. is generated in Russia. And that’s just a fact.
Do you have anything else to add besides “I KNOW YOU ARE BUT WHAT AM I?!?!?!?!?”
I’m not going to waste any more time conversing with someone with the mental acuity of a thumbtack. Enjoy the rest of your Sunday, kid.
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