T's and P's to tornado alley
- Thread starter QChawks
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Derek Van Dam is a sweet porno name.
I don't think Omaha is supposed to get much more than just storms tonight, but the air feels real cool and heavy this morning.
Sioux City is getting a fun cell moving across the area around 4/5 PM. Should be a wonderful drive home.
At work we were saying bring it on for like the last four years, and now a coworker doesn't have a home so we don't say that anymore 😬
Not sure you're familiar with Elkhorn's demographic.
looks like thunderstorms in Des Moines around bedtime. Absolute perfection. I can't wait!!
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Derek Van Dong would be better.
Nice, @Moral would be impressed.
Just watched YT's Convective Chronicles video on this. Been watching Trey's channel for a few years now - I don't remember him truly ever stating things like "perfect setup" or "there are no conditional aspects here" with what they're expecting in southern KS/central Oklahoma.
For us in Iowa, our storms should fire up in Nebraska this afternoon, then form a line that flows across the state early evening through overnight. Shouldn't necessarily be severe once it crosses say I35, but could still be fairly strong.
For us in Iowa, our storms should fire up in Nebraska this afternoon, then form a line that flows across the state early evening through overnight. Shouldn't necessarily be severe once it crosses say I35, but could still be fairly strong.
The first "recorded" EF5 tornado was located in this same pocket almost 17 years ago to the day (May 4, 2007) which hit Greensburg, KS. This supercell ended up producing 22 different tornadoes of various strengths during its lifecycle.
Some issues with this setup. A lot of it seems to want to go linear quickly. Linear forcing along the CF in KS is unlikely to get it done where a high end tornado threat is concerned.
Down south into Oklahoma... not as much forcing from the CF, which is good, but the main 500mb wave is west of the area during the day. So it looks like we'll be relying on dryline forcing to get it done.
And then I'm not a huge fan of the surface flow and shear orientation across the area. But it could get it done, and you could have a couple monster supercells roaming Oklahoma by early evening. Not a widespread thing though, which makes a high risk a bit puzzling. (since it takes into account coverage and just potential strength of severe)
I do think it'll verify as a high wind event. A major tornado outbreak? I have my doubts.
Down south into Oklahoma... not as much forcing from the CF, which is good, but the main 500mb wave is west of the area during the day. So it looks like we'll be relying on dryline forcing to get it done.
And then I'm not a huge fan of the surface flow and shear orientation across the area. But it could get it done, and you could have a couple monster supercells roaming Oklahoma by early evening. Not a widespread thing though, which makes a high risk a bit puzzling. (since it takes into account coverage and just potential strength of severe)
I do think it'll verify as a high wind event. A major tornado outbreak? I have my doubts.
I've run into Jeff on a couple of chase occasions down there in OKC. Manic energy. Nice guy though. Baron's 3km model is probably just a repurposed public model with some tweaks. (they just want to sound special)
The question on these storms is going to be mode... they'll be strong, but I don't know that they'll live up to their tornado monster potential.
Likely PDS watch coming.
Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 649
Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov
Storm Prediction Center PDS Tornado Watch 189
Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
* Primary threats include...
Numerous tornadoes expected with a few intense tornadoes likely
Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 4
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph likely
SUMMARY...Explosive thunderstorm development is forecast this
afternoon along and east of a north to south oriented dryline.
Given a very favorable environment for severe thunderstorms, intense
supercells are expected to evolve. These storms are forecast to
move east across the Watch area this afternoon through the late
evening. The possibility exists for regenerative supercell
development over central Oklahoma this evening. Initially large to
giant hail is forecast with the initial supercell activity before
the tornado risk increases. Intense tornadoes are probable
especially as the atmosphere becomes very favorable for tornadoes
late this afternoon and continuing through the evening.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 105 statute miles
east and west of a line from 25 miles north northwest of Hutchinson
KS to 50 miles south southeast of Fort Sill OK. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
Believe I'm going to pull up an OKC TV stream on YT when I get home from work.
TV says it’s gonna be big. Might be an F5.
that screen looks like what GIAORT thinks it is.
Last week during tornado day we got half dollar sized hail in my area. I was trying to get home and out of the storm, and these two ****ing turds ran out from a gas station and tried to run across the street while getting pelted by half dollar sized hail. Looked painful as ****, like they were getting smoked.
But also I was pissed and they were being dumbshits and wasting my time so i honked at them until they got out of the f*cking street.
The hail lasted maybe 5 minutes. JUST STAY IN THE GAS STATION.
Amazing, you should write a book about that experience, brah
We had a ridiculous hailstorm here when I lived on the Missouri side, probably around 2004. Golf ball sized hail that lasted about a minute. Ex-wifey (no pic) and I were in the house and I thought the whole house was coming down, couldn't believe how loud it was. Luckily, the cars were in the garage. Our roof was toast and several window ledges busted right off. The hail at least came straight down or we would have had windows taken out.
