This is exactly correct. He has at least this game and possibly more to stake out his claim. He'll either shine or give it up.
Two Deeps & Game Notes for Iowa vs. Minnesota
- Thread starter Blair Sanderson
- Start date
If they knew that, then sure. But come on, any evidence to that?
by all accounts Spencer barely practiced, with everyone assuming it was a bruised shoulder. Quickly became obvious in the game that it was more than that.
Exactly what is happening, but the poster also left out the fact this also allows KF to not have to admit he was wrong about Petras over Padilla. The Ferentz ego wouldn’t be able to handle a shot like that.
Joey. Football.Yes, the moment Padilla struggles, Hogan becomes the most popular man on the team.
You posted that Kirk deliberately played a seriously injured quarterback. I disagree.
It's about matchups. Best player at our deepest position (Moss, DBs), against a Minnesota O that's really struggled to throw the ball (they have less passing yardage on the year than we do), vs a young OT with potential at a position where there's a marked drop-off after the top two, going against two very solid DEs.
So yeah, gimme Richman before Moss if we had to pick. Harris is coming into his own anyways.
I think Harris has done fine but real question... what is Roberts injury and who is behind Xavior Williams? Not bad to have a guy who has played at UNI forever to be your #5 guy.
Never Said "seriously" injured.
CJ was definitely injured in the one game. Everyone knew it. The announcers talked about it. Common knowledge.
Petras couldn't get anything on the ball Saturday. It was obvious. I doubt he threw it all week or it would have been obvious to everyone then. If he couldn't throw in practice what made the coaches think he could do it in the game?
I'm just saying that the coaches would have to be oblivious not to see that he couldn't throw and yet they had him out there anyway. Many on here would say of course they are. I'm asking why when they had a QB who actually could throw waiting to go. Again, WTF were they thinking here?
And they did pull him though. I would assume warmups he looked ok.
we are both making assumptions based on a handful of plays from Saturday. It ultimately took coaches less than 10 plays to make the change.
It's pretty clear Petras isn't starting because of injury. The offense wasn't any better in terms of YPA or success rate, so I don't think Padilla won the job via performance.
Kirk said Spencer was banged up and didn't practice Tuesday and Wednesday. They worked him in at the end of the week and Spencer said he felt OK. Then in warm-ups, the coaches noticed he had less zip on the ball and they asked him again how he felt, said he felt fine. Then they pulled him when it became apparent he was not ok. This is all from Kirk's mouth.
I really don't think Padilla won the position with that performance. It was a 6.25 YPA performance. With Padilla in the game the success rate* for Iowa was 31.4%. That means they were behind the sticks 68.6% of the time he was in the game.
The 6.25 YPA is good enough to put Padilla at 112th in the nation. Right behind Temple's qb, 5 places behind Petras, and last in the Big Ten.
That success rate is not great. Even vs. Purdue, the success rate was 37%. There were just lots of turnovers in that game, leading to a loss of scoring opportunities for the offense. The Wisconsin game was easily the worst offensive performance by Petras, at ~21%. Padilla did ok, but not great.
To back that up, let's take a game where everything went right, Maryland. 51 points, you'd think the offense did well. Success rate was 36.3%. Let's look at a good total offense, Virginia - 1st in FBS, in their worst game points wise. On their worst offensive day, they had a success rate of 43.8%. Iowa's *best* day was 36.3%. On Virginia's best day (a loss where they scored 49 points), they had a 55.4% success rate. That is how far Iowa is behind on offense, in general. 18% difference between the best in the country and one of the worst on offense.
I could go back and just do passing plays and figure out which qb executes better in the passing game. But my bet is that Padilla's passing performance wouldn't be much better than Petras's average day. And it would not take into account audibles to runs in pre-snap reads.
What all these success rates tell me though is that even with the mobility and quick releases and good decisions Padilla made, something else killed the drives, still, and my guess is that he didn't check out of bad plays at the LOS often enough. The offense was not any better with Padilla at qb, situation-wise. He's first string this week because Petras is hurt.
If Padilla does well vs. Minnesota in YPA and success rate, then I'll say he won the job. Right now the jury has to still be out, for me.
* Success rate is independent of field position or turnovers or defensive scores or special teams scores, or big explosive plays. It is situation dependent. A successful play is: 50% of the necessary yards to gain on 1st down, 70% of the yards on second down, and all the remaining yards on 3rd down. A TD is an automatic success on downs 1 - 3. A 1st down on downs 1 - 3 is an automatic success. You count the total number of successful plays and divide by the total number of successes as a percentage. That gets you the success rate of a game.
It is a very good indicator of good offenses. ~37% is a good success rate (top 50 offenses are about this good).
What's awesome is that you can turn it around and subtract the opponent success rate from 100% and get the defensive stop rate, which will also eliminate explosive plays from the defensive stats.
It's much better at telling you how good the offense and defense is overall than YPP or TOP or points, because it's an indicator of how good your offense or defense is in any situation. Moving the sticks or preventing them from moving is how the game is played.
Kirk said Spencer was banged up and didn't practice Tuesday and Wednesday. They worked him in at the end of the week and Spencer said he felt OK. Then in warm-ups, the coaches noticed he had less zip on the ball and they asked him again how he felt, said he felt fine. Then they pulled him when it became apparent he was not ok. This is all from Kirk's mouth.
I really don't think Padilla won the position with that performance. It was a 6.25 YPA performance. With Padilla in the game the success rate* for Iowa was 31.4%. That means they were behind the sticks 68.6% of the time he was in the game.
The 6.25 YPA is good enough to put Padilla at 112th in the nation. Right behind Temple's qb, 5 places behind Petras, and last in the Big Ten.
That success rate is not great. Even vs. Purdue, the success rate was 37%. There were just lots of turnovers in that game, leading to a loss of scoring opportunities for the offense. The Wisconsin game was easily the worst offensive performance by Petras, at ~21%. Padilla did ok, but not great.
To back that up, let's take a game where everything went right, Maryland. 51 points, you'd think the offense did well. Success rate was 36.3%. Let's look at a good total offense, Virginia - 1st in FBS, in their worst game points wise. On their worst offensive day, they had a success rate of 43.8%. Iowa's *best* day was 36.3%. On Virginia's best day (a loss where they scored 49 points), they had a 55.4% success rate. That is how far Iowa is behind on offense, in general. 18% difference between the best in the country and one of the worst on offense.
I could go back and just do passing plays and figure out which qb executes better in the passing game. But my bet is that Padilla's passing performance wouldn't be much better than Petras's average day. And it would not take into account audibles to runs in pre-snap reads.
What all these success rates tell me though is that even with the mobility and quick releases and good decisions Padilla made, something else killed the drives, still, and my guess is that he didn't check out of bad plays at the LOS often enough. The offense was not any better with Padilla at qb, situation-wise. He's first string this week because Petras is hurt.
If Padilla does well vs. Minnesota in YPA and success rate, then I'll say he won the job. Right now the jury has to still be out, for me.
* Success rate is independent of field position or turnovers or defensive scores or special teams scores, or big explosive plays. It is situation dependent. A successful play is: 50% of the necessary yards to gain on 1st down, 70% of the yards on second down, and all the remaining yards on 3rd down. A TD is an automatic success on downs 1 - 3. A 1st down on downs 1 - 3 is an automatic success. You count the total number of successful plays and divide by the total number of successes as a percentage. That gets you the success rate of a game.
It is a very good indicator of good offenses. ~37% is a good success rate (top 50 offenses are about this good).
What's awesome is that you can turn it around and subtract the opponent success rate from 100% and get the defensive stop rate, which will also eliminate explosive plays from the defensive stats.
It's much better at telling you how good the offense and defense is overall than YPP or TOP or points, because it's an indicator of how good your offense or defense is in any situation. Moving the sticks or preventing them from moving is how the game is played.
In all fairness, there’s better depth at CB than there is on the OL, specifically at the T position. That may be what he’s getting at.
Did Petras get hurt after pre game warmups or did the ‘brain trust’ think the game adrenaline would fix the issu?
This one almost put coffee out my nose. Very well done, sir.
Well considering it was Padilla’s first meaningful playtime and the Petras experiment is 16+ games in, it’s pretty clear who the better option is moving forward. And put me in the camp that doesn’t believe Petras is as injured as we are led to believe. This is a KF political move to try out a new QB, and if he doesn’t pan out, Petras is magically healthy again and ready to step back in.
2014 at Purdue. Rudock couldn't go, and CJB got the start.
I understand that. At the beginning of the season there was a lot of depth but we've lost 2 of our top 3 corners to injury and you can't really say that anymore. Having Moss out the last 3 games has definitely impacted the secondary in a negative way. Richman might be a good tackle some day but flip a coin as to which tackle might look better or worse on any given day. The difference just isn't that great unfortunately.
Pretty much this. His "injury" is a way for saving face for KF and SP.
Why did we waste 3 series on an injured QB?
Presumably they thought it was something that would loosen up after a bit. Quickly became obvious that it wouldn’t so they made the switch.
injuries are like that sometimes. takes a bit to get loose, but once it does they’re fine. Opposite runs true with muscle injuries in the legs, which is why you see players use the bikes on occasion to stay loose.
This is stupid. You know why? Because you pointed out yourself that our success rate is 18% behind Virginia. That's with SP leading the offense!!! That is a good enough argument in and of itself to let Padilla get experience, injured SP or not!
In 2016 (can't remember the game), Stanley briefly came in for a few snaps when Beathard was dinged up. It was short-lived, and Beathard quickly returned.
(But 2014 was the last time we changed who started a game.)
Yeah, that was North Dakota state if I remember right.
its really be a remarkable string of health at that position when you think about it.
Yeah, but the relative performance of the offense under Petras and Padilla is similar. Padilla did worse at NW than Petras vs Purdue.
I hoped that Padilla would provide the tools necessary to extend drives by moving the pocket. The stats indicate that despite the uptick in how the offense looked on the two TD drives, the overall performance was the same.
It would be much different if he'd have blown the doors off NW. He didn't do that. I think he needs to do more against Minnesota or we're going to see Petras back at qb.
Petras was sacked 7 times by Purdue. 8 times by PSU and Wisconsin. Those were drive killers, and plays that took us out of fg range. Padilla has pocket awareness, quickness of feet and of release, and keeps his eyes downfield when flushed and on the move. All far greater than Petras. And this was only his first actual game. I've seen enough of Petras that I don't need to see him on the field again
Football is more than stats. You have to actually watch the players on the field. Padilla had a better game than most of SP's even if the stats say they were similar. For instance, against ISU SP had like 106 passing yards. That was actually one of his better games this year. The stats weren't good, but you have to watch the game. Anyone who is worth their salt in knowledge of the QB position would say that Padilla had a good game against NW, just like SP did against ISU regardless of stats.
In what world is 18/28 172 yards 0 TD’s, and 0 interceptions in a game that you led for the entire game, worse than 17/32 195 yards, 0 TD’s, and 4 interceptions in an outing that you trailed the entire game? Not to mention that Padilla was three drops from Keagan, Jones, and Tracy from completing 75% of his passes for 220+ yards and a TD in three quarters of play
Padilla looked better and more consistent against Northwestern than Petras has in any game this year excluding the Maryland and Colorado State (which barely counts) games, and anybody who disagrees is watching a different game or has an agenda (ad hominem be damned). It’s too bad that our offensive playcalling reflects a fear of making mistakes or both QB’s would probably have much better stats
What’s weird is just watching the games, I’d have said Maryland and penn state were actually his best games this year.
You could maybe add Penn State to my post. Given the circumstances, Petras did well against PSU, though our defense, special teams and crowd were all big factors in that game. We also were playing from behind and the playbook opened up in the second half with some big play action passes that resulted in gains of 44 and 42 (which accounted for much of Spencer’s yards, y/a, or y/c production)
Well thats not what KF said exactly in his presser. He said he's practicing and "may" play. I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't start, but may come in IF needed.....
Kirk said about Moss: But he's feeling pretty good right now. Unless we hit a pothole along the way he'll be full throttle Saturday. Anytime you're getting guys back that's a helpful thing especially veteran players like Riley. He was playing at a high level.
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