Upon Further Review
Mike Zierath | Staff Reporter
We are getting down to business in the race to be part of the College Football Playoff.
Here we are, just a few days from the first CFP Committee poll, and we still really don’t have a clue who will and who won’t be in the final four.
Or do we.
Nah, we don’t.
There are just too many scenarios that could play out to even hazard a guess, but I’ll try.
Just a reminder, I had FSU, Okie State, USC and Alabama. 2 of those four teams are done with USC being the most recent. Notre, cough, Dame, dismantled the Trojans on National TV last Saturday night. As much as I hate to admit it, those guys from South Bend look pretty good. More on them later.
Let’s look at the possibilities.
Ideally, there are going to be four conference champions and they would all be the last four undefeated teams in the country. Yeah…………….okay. That would make it pretty easy, wouldn’t it? We all know that isn’t going to happen. The more likely scenario is that there will be controversy. The type of controversy that occurs when we have a limited number of undefeated teams and a whole host of 1 loss teams. Who gets in over who?
I think, when the first poll comes out next Tuesday night, that the committee, who is looking at the entire body of work, may not have Alabama #1. That will create an uproar in the southeastern part of the United States like we’ve never heard. We might actually hear banjo’s as the deliverance crew gets ready for action, or Johnny Reb music, as the south organizes again! Everyone knows that Alabama is the best team in college football, so why would they not be #1? Resume. The committee members only have the first eight weeks to look at. Sure, Bama has throttled everyone they have played. They leave little doubt that they pass the eye test. But the only teams they’ve played with a winning record are two pretty good Mountain West schools in Colorado State and Fresno State, and Texas A&M. Their schedule begins to get a bit tougher on November the 4th with a game against their first ranked opponent, #23 LSU. They finish the season at 19th ranked Auburn. Is that enough? I’m not sure the 21st ranked SOS gets them there.
Penn State passes the eye test too. They took a big step last weekend by taking a perennial Big10 powerhouse and snapping them like a twig. Yes, Michigander’s, in a round-about way, I just called your team a twig. I think, however, that had Michigan been a tree, PSU would have felled that as well. They are a good team! Their SOS is a little bit better than Bama’s, coming in at #18. It gets really real for them on Saturday…….second straight weekend with gameday on the same campus they are on, second straight weekend with a perennial Big powerhouse. Will they have a second straight weekend of crushing the buck nuts?
It gets more interesting as you climb the SOS ladder and find Notre Dame at 12, Georgia at 9 and TCU at #7.
TCU probably has the best resume of the group on their way to 7-0, having beaten West Virginia at home and going on the road and beating current #8 on the SOS ladder, Okie State. They also easily took care of K-State, while others haven’t. They also crank up the schedule beginning this week with a trip to #25 Iowa State (28th SOS) and an 11/11 show down at Norman against Oklahoma (#2 SOS).
Notre Dame, and I loathe that name by the way, but to be fair, we need to look at them as well. They are playing some really solid football right now. They too have a remaining schedule that is quite difficult, beginning this weekend with a home test against #14 North Carolina (#34 SOS). I think we will see a little better game than last weekend against USC, but the end result will be the same. They also still have @Miami (#24 SOS) and @Stanford(#20 SOS). They continue to win, and they are going to be in the playoff conversation whether I want them to be or not.
Georgia is another team that looks really, really good right now. They are 7-0, and currently ranked 3rd in the AP (#9 SOS). This weekend is The World’s Biggest Cocktail Party in Gainesville, as the Bulldogs get to try and beat the Gators. Gator players haven’t been short with words towards their opponent this week. One of them actually said that Florida seniors have never lost to Georgia, and while Georgia might be pretty good, they can’t beat Florida……or words to that effect. This is going to be a brawl ladies and gentlemen! Not one good, upstanding young man, who is a member of any football team, turns the cheek to that one. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some pre-game, pre-kick and in-game festivities, all started by the boys from Florida trying to shake the Dawgs from their game plan, which is to crush the Gators like a bug, which I think happens.
So, Bama is in control in the polls, Penn State, Georgia and TCU probably all have better resumes. IF, and I stress IF, IF the committee is doing the job they are supposed to be doing, Alabama, based on body of work, will not be #1 on Tuesday night unless PSU, Georgia and TCU all happen to lose on Saturday.
If I were on the committee, I would have TCU, PSU, Alabama and Georgia as my top four teams. Clemson would come in at #5. If they need help, I’m only a 20 minute drive to the Gaylord in Grapevine.
Now lets talk about the other possibilities, meaning, which conferences are left out of the CFP. Conferences, plural, meaning, more than one. Right now, it’s a distinct possibility! The Pac 12 is eating itself. Washington and Washington State are the only options left. Some would have us believe that a 2 loss Stanford is still in play. No, no they aren’t.
In the ACC, it’s coming down to Clemson and NC State in the Atlantic and Virginia Tech and Miami in the Coastal. Four pretty darn good teams. 2 of them are going to play each other, but not before Clemson and NC State get together and Miami and Va Tech get together as well. Miami also has a looming date with Notre Dame on the horizon. I’m guessing the last one standing is going to have a pretty good grip on the CFP, if there is a last one standing. Additional losses by Clemson, NC State and VaTech will put them on the outside looking in. While Miami is currently unbeaten, if they would lose more than once, they are out too!
The Big 12 has its own conundrums. TCU getting through the rest of the year unscathed is going to be difficult. Same for Okie State and Oklahoma. If they don’t all take each other out, while, someone has to come out of it………..
The Big Ten has the same scenario as the rest: Will they eat their young? This could be one of those years. PSU has a tough row to hoe, as does OSU. Wisconsin, much like the 2015 version of Iowa, has played no one. Their SOS stands at #60 right now. They likely won’t get tested until, at earliest, Iowa travels to Madison, and unless the Hawks can figure some things out, that probably isn’t going to end well for Iowa. That puts them in the Big Ten Championship against either PSU, OSU or MSU. It’s actually mind numbing right now.
The SEC has it easy. They have Bama and Georgia and, really, no other options. If those two get together in the championship, the winner is the only clear representative as of today. The other, will have, theoretically, just one loss in that championship game and have a foot in the CFP as well.
If two teams would happen to get in from the SEC or the Big Ten, the question remains. Which to leagues get left out? Right now, it appears the Pac 12 and the Big 12 (who might be the best conference in the country this year), could be on the outside looking in. There are combinations that could eliminate both the Big Ten and the ACC as well.
The next four weeks are going to be very, very interesting (in my best Col. Klink voice).
We need to talk about something else this week. Hot seats. Some of the most obvious hot seats in the country when the year started, outside of Gary Anderson, were Kevin Sumlin at Texas A&M and Kliff Kingsbury at Texas Tech. I’m not sure these two guys are at the forefront any longer. They are still there, but some other coaches have replaced them at the top. Butch Jones (yes, I know, not Johnson) comes to mind. Tennessee is playing some really bad football right now. I don’t think he lasts the rest of the year. Mike Riley at Nebraska seems to be just a flag flapping in the wind, waiting for the final call. Todd Graham and Rich Rod, both out there in Arizona, seem to have found life. Jim Mora, who I had as one to keep an eye on, seems to be leaning closer each week. Bret Bielema has got to be worried. I’m guessing no one believed me in the preseason hot seat article, but he was someone I pointed out from day one. I’ve learned that his buyout may not be as monstrous as I once thought trying to read through all the legalize in the contract. Matter of fact, I think now, having listened to some Arkansas radio host last week, that it might only be in the 5.5 million dollar range, not the 12+ that I thought it might be.
The one question everyone has to ask themselves before pulling trigger on firing a coach is this: Would we be better off? The second question is: Does my short list have substance? If you can’t bring in a guy with more juice, clout, swagger and reputation than the guy you are letting go, then don’t do it. It’s a pretty simple equation.
There are just 8 undefeated teams left in college football. 2 of them are in the group of five. One of them has yet to be tested. There are 11 ranked teams on the road in the top 25 this weekend. Think there might be some upsets? I do! Most likely to fall? TCU, PSU, Georgia, Okie State, MSU and Washington State. 3 of those haven’t been beaten yet. Going to be a really good weekend of football.
Mike Zierath | Staff Reporter
We are getting down to business in the race to be part of the College Football Playoff.
Here we are, just a few days from the first CFP Committee poll, and we still really don’t have a clue who will and who won’t be in the final four.
Or do we.
Nah, we don’t.
There are just too many scenarios that could play out to even hazard a guess, but I’ll try.
Just a reminder, I had FSU, Okie State, USC and Alabama. 2 of those four teams are done with USC being the most recent. Notre, cough, Dame, dismantled the Trojans on National TV last Saturday night. As much as I hate to admit it, those guys from South Bend look pretty good. More on them later.
Let’s look at the possibilities.
Ideally, there are going to be four conference champions and they would all be the last four undefeated teams in the country. Yeah…………….okay. That would make it pretty easy, wouldn’t it? We all know that isn’t going to happen. The more likely scenario is that there will be controversy. The type of controversy that occurs when we have a limited number of undefeated teams and a whole host of 1 loss teams. Who gets in over who?
I think, when the first poll comes out next Tuesday night, that the committee, who is looking at the entire body of work, may not have Alabama #1. That will create an uproar in the southeastern part of the United States like we’ve never heard. We might actually hear banjo’s as the deliverance crew gets ready for action, or Johnny Reb music, as the south organizes again! Everyone knows that Alabama is the best team in college football, so why would they not be #1? Resume. The committee members only have the first eight weeks to look at. Sure, Bama has throttled everyone they have played. They leave little doubt that they pass the eye test. But the only teams they’ve played with a winning record are two pretty good Mountain West schools in Colorado State and Fresno State, and Texas A&M. Their schedule begins to get a bit tougher on November the 4th with a game against their first ranked opponent, #23 LSU. They finish the season at 19th ranked Auburn. Is that enough? I’m not sure the 21st ranked SOS gets them there.
Penn State passes the eye test too. They took a big step last weekend by taking a perennial Big10 powerhouse and snapping them like a twig. Yes, Michigander’s, in a round-about way, I just called your team a twig. I think, however, that had Michigan been a tree, PSU would have felled that as well. They are a good team! Their SOS is a little bit better than Bama’s, coming in at #18. It gets really real for them on Saturday…….second straight weekend with gameday on the same campus they are on, second straight weekend with a perennial Big powerhouse. Will they have a second straight weekend of crushing the buck nuts?
It gets more interesting as you climb the SOS ladder and find Notre Dame at 12, Georgia at 9 and TCU at #7.
TCU probably has the best resume of the group on their way to 7-0, having beaten West Virginia at home and going on the road and beating current #8 on the SOS ladder, Okie State. They also easily took care of K-State, while others haven’t. They also crank up the schedule beginning this week with a trip to #25 Iowa State (28th SOS) and an 11/11 show down at Norman against Oklahoma (#2 SOS).
Notre Dame, and I loathe that name by the way, but to be fair, we need to look at them as well. They are playing some really solid football right now. They too have a remaining schedule that is quite difficult, beginning this weekend with a home test against #14 North Carolina (#34 SOS). I think we will see a little better game than last weekend against USC, but the end result will be the same. They also still have @Miami (#24 SOS) and @Stanford(#20 SOS). They continue to win, and they are going to be in the playoff conversation whether I want them to be or not.
Georgia is another team that looks really, really good right now. They are 7-0, and currently ranked 3rd in the AP (#9 SOS). This weekend is The World’s Biggest Cocktail Party in Gainesville, as the Bulldogs get to try and beat the Gators. Gator players haven’t been short with words towards their opponent this week. One of them actually said that Florida seniors have never lost to Georgia, and while Georgia might be pretty good, they can’t beat Florida……or words to that effect. This is going to be a brawl ladies and gentlemen! Not one good, upstanding young man, who is a member of any football team, turns the cheek to that one. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some pre-game, pre-kick and in-game festivities, all started by the boys from Florida trying to shake the Dawgs from their game plan, which is to crush the Gators like a bug, which I think happens.
So, Bama is in control in the polls, Penn State, Georgia and TCU probably all have better resumes. IF, and I stress IF, IF the committee is doing the job they are supposed to be doing, Alabama, based on body of work, will not be #1 on Tuesday night unless PSU, Georgia and TCU all happen to lose on Saturday.
If I were on the committee, I would have TCU, PSU, Alabama and Georgia as my top four teams. Clemson would come in at #5. If they need help, I’m only a 20 minute drive to the Gaylord in Grapevine.
Now lets talk about the other possibilities, meaning, which conferences are left out of the CFP. Conferences, plural, meaning, more than one. Right now, it’s a distinct possibility! The Pac 12 is eating itself. Washington and Washington State are the only options left. Some would have us believe that a 2 loss Stanford is still in play. No, no they aren’t.
In the ACC, it’s coming down to Clemson and NC State in the Atlantic and Virginia Tech and Miami in the Coastal. Four pretty darn good teams. 2 of them are going to play each other, but not before Clemson and NC State get together and Miami and Va Tech get together as well. Miami also has a looming date with Notre Dame on the horizon. I’m guessing the last one standing is going to have a pretty good grip on the CFP, if there is a last one standing. Additional losses by Clemson, NC State and VaTech will put them on the outside looking in. While Miami is currently unbeaten, if they would lose more than once, they are out too!
The Big 12 has its own conundrums. TCU getting through the rest of the year unscathed is going to be difficult. Same for Okie State and Oklahoma. If they don’t all take each other out, while, someone has to come out of it………..
The Big Ten has the same scenario as the rest: Will they eat their young? This could be one of those years. PSU has a tough row to hoe, as does OSU. Wisconsin, much like the 2015 version of Iowa, has played no one. Their SOS stands at #60 right now. They likely won’t get tested until, at earliest, Iowa travels to Madison, and unless the Hawks can figure some things out, that probably isn’t going to end well for Iowa. That puts them in the Big Ten Championship against either PSU, OSU or MSU. It’s actually mind numbing right now.
The SEC has it easy. They have Bama and Georgia and, really, no other options. If those two get together in the championship, the winner is the only clear representative as of today. The other, will have, theoretically, just one loss in that championship game and have a foot in the CFP as well.
If two teams would happen to get in from the SEC or the Big Ten, the question remains. Which to leagues get left out? Right now, it appears the Pac 12 and the Big 12 (who might be the best conference in the country this year), could be on the outside looking in. There are combinations that could eliminate both the Big Ten and the ACC as well.
The next four weeks are going to be very, very interesting (in my best Col. Klink voice).
We need to talk about something else this week. Hot seats. Some of the most obvious hot seats in the country when the year started, outside of Gary Anderson, were Kevin Sumlin at Texas A&M and Kliff Kingsbury at Texas Tech. I’m not sure these two guys are at the forefront any longer. They are still there, but some other coaches have replaced them at the top. Butch Jones (yes, I know, not Johnson) comes to mind. Tennessee is playing some really bad football right now. I don’t think he lasts the rest of the year. Mike Riley at Nebraska seems to be just a flag flapping in the wind, waiting for the final call. Todd Graham and Rich Rod, both out there in Arizona, seem to have found life. Jim Mora, who I had as one to keep an eye on, seems to be leaning closer each week. Bret Bielema has got to be worried. I’m guessing no one believed me in the preseason hot seat article, but he was someone I pointed out from day one. I’ve learned that his buyout may not be as monstrous as I once thought trying to read through all the legalize in the contract. Matter of fact, I think now, having listened to some Arkansas radio host last week, that it might only be in the 5.5 million dollar range, not the 12+ that I thought it might be.
The one question everyone has to ask themselves before pulling trigger on firing a coach is this: Would we be better off? The second question is: Does my short list have substance? If you can’t bring in a guy with more juice, clout, swagger and reputation than the guy you are letting go, then don’t do it. It’s a pretty simple equation.
There are just 8 undefeated teams left in college football. 2 of them are in the group of five. One of them has yet to be tested. There are 11 ranked teams on the road in the top 25 this weekend. Think there might be some upsets? I do! Most likely to fall? TCU, PSU, Georgia, Okie State, MSU and Washington State. 3 of those haven’t been beaten yet. Going to be a really good weekend of football.
