US: COVID-19 phase moving from 'pandemic' toward 'endemic'; estimated 73-80% immune; optimistic but caution still recommended

[Morrison71]

5 ways we'll know COVID has become endemic: ANALYSIS

Dr. Jay Bhatt reviews five ways you'll know COVID-19 has become endemic.

abcnews.go.com

Recently, an update to the national COVID-19 strategywas released, designed to manage the virus so most Americans can return to daily life without disruption. The country is moving to a new phase in which the COVID-19 threat changes from "pandemic" to "endemic." That means the virus will likely continue to circulate within the population, but at low rates or seasonally. The updated strategy should fill us with optimism. But we should couple that with a healthy dose of caution.

"As we move toward a COVID-controlled life, it'll be ever-important to assess for real-time changes in the virus and its community impact because we know just how unpredictable this virus can be," said Dr. Atul Nakhasi, an internist at the Martin Luther King Jr. Outpatient Center in Los Angeles.
Click to shrink...

Case Numbers

In Los Angeles County, where Nakhasi practices, public health officials have developed an alert system designed to signal the risk level of the virus. If the number of new cases stays below 200 per 100,000 people, then the risk level remains low.

Though vaccination plays a key role in keeping case numbers low, it's not the only way to get there. Most people who become infected with COVID-19 develop some level of immunity to the virus. Widespread infections combined with vaccinations have led one group of scientists to determine that 73% of Americans are, at least for now, immune to omicron, the dominant variant. They say that percentage could increase to 80% by mid-March.
Click to shrink...

Hospitalizations

If we see hospitalizations continue to decrease and remain stable, that will suggest endemicity. The CDC has pivoted away from case numbers to focus on hospitalizations. That's because, even if the overall reported number of cases stay low, an increase in hospitalizations could indicate that the virus has mutated and the risk of infection may be increasing rapidly.

"A new phase of the pandemic requires a recalibration of metrics that directly highlight true population impact," said ABC News contributor and Chief Innovation Officer at Boston Childrens Hospital John Brownstein, P.h.D.

"While cases have uncoupled from severe illness, hospitalization numbers will continue to be a robust indicator that public health can rely on," he added. "Though not the most timely (measure), hospital capacity will continue to reflect risk levels in communities and help guide decisions on mitigation efforts."
Click to shrink...

Wastewater Samples

Yeah, it's gross, but the wastewater that flows through our sewer systems can tell us a lot about diseases that might be circulating in the community. In fact, data from the CDC's National Wastewater Surveillance System showed that 70% of wastewater facilities found that virus levels had decreased compared to two weeks ago -- another sign COVID-19 cases are on the decline.

Wastewater samples are especially important because people shed the virus when they are in the early stages of infection. That means we can identify rising infection rates even before people begin to show symptoms. Dr. Ted Smith, an associate professor of environmental medicine at the University of Louisville School of Medicine, said that "wastewater concentrations are dropping in North America." Though he cautions that infection rates typically drop in the spring and summer, "the genomics is supportive of a tamped situation."
Click to shrink...

Should still practice caution:

As we move into the endemic phase of the virus, many people will be tempted to think COVID is a thing of the past. If only it were so. For one thing, every community is different. Vermont's vaccination rate is around 80%, while Alabama's is closer to 50%. Residents of these two states are facing two very different scenarios in the months ahead.

Likewise, even in cities like Los Angeles, Nakhasi warned that "it's really important for us to recognize the disproportionate impact this virus has had on our under-resourced and vulnerable communities and prioritize their health, well-being, and life as we prepare for the next surge." Also, just because fewer of us are getting sick, doesn't mean we shouldn't take smart precautions like washing our hands and continuing to get booster shots when recommended.

"We are in an endemic phase when cases, hospitalizations, and deaths have reached a steady state," said Dr. Megan Ranney, a practicing physician and dean at Brown University's School of Public Health. "Remember, though, that 'endemic' is not the same as 'not dangerous.'"

 

[The Tradition]

NPR talked about this last week and the only callers they put on the air were complaining about mask mandates ending. If you listened to that show you'd walk away thinking that Americans LOVE being masked up and they're mad that the mandates won't last forever.

 

[Morrison71]

NPR talked about this last week and the only callers they put on the air were complaining about mask mandates ending. If you listened to that show you'd walk away thinking that Americans LOVE being masked up and they're mad that the mandates won't last forever.

Trad it was something that was so easy to do and so effective. Not just for Covid either. When everyone was masked up, our hospital had like zero cases of the flu. I personally don’t know why you wouldn’t wear a mask in public if you are coughing and showing symptoms, regardless if Covid is all over or not.

 

[desihawk]

if it’s considered endemic currently is that equivalent to saying that we can ecpect 1500+ deaths per day (current usa stats) due to covid perpetually?

 

[The Tradition]

Trad it was something that was so easy to do and so effective. Not just for Covid either. When everyone was masked up, our hospital had like zero cases of the flu. I personally don’t know why you wouldn’t wear a mask in public if you are coughing and showing symptoms, regardless if Covid is all over or not.

I'm sorry, but masking sucks. I still have to do it every day for work. It absolutely interferes with personal interactions.

 

[paednoch23]

I'm sorry, but masking sucks. I still have to do it every day for work. It absolutely interferes with personal interactions.

then find another employer

 

[Joes Place]

NPR talked about this last week and the only callers they put on the air were complaining about mask mandates ending.

That's because in SOME areas, it's still pandemic.

 

[Joes Place]

I'm sorry, but masking sucks. I still have to do it every day for work. It absolutely interferes with personal interactions smoke breaks.

.

 

[Pinehawk]

We still have more cases and deaths now, than we did last January through July.
But, people are finally ready to admit it’s here to stay, we did all we could do, and not much that we did mattered.
So, get busy living…or, stay home and out of everyone else’s way.

 

[swagsurfer02]

Once I saw the octogenarians the other night that have been so deathly afraid of this huddling together and laughing I knew this was over.

 

[hawkland14]

Trad it was something that was so easy to do and so effective. Not just for Covid either. When everyone was masked up, our hospital had like zero cases of the flu. I personally don’t know why you wouldn’t wear a mask in public if you are coughing and showing symptoms, regardless if Covid is all over or not.

“SO EffECtiVe”

This ladies and gentlemen is no different than a MAGAt. Believing something still with all the evidence telling us otherwise. The masks society were wearing were not “so effective”(as data tells us) and to say otherwise is a complete lie.